Given how complex the whole situation apparently is, the media can report basically anything and still get it partially right I guess. Just reading this article has put an immense strain on my short term memory and I found myself scrolling up and down more then on Twitter :p Thanks for the report, Tom!
Syria once stood as a powerful regional country. Poor civilians.
What about Turkiye regional goals? They have their oun agenda and negotiate with all sides in the three major wars that are developing. And they have allies or are supportive in one and in another are supporting other side. Clearly, their support their own side. But what they try to achieve?
Russia, the same. Why are still russian troops there while fighting a major war in Ukraine?
Russian telegram channels are wildly critizising the Keystone Cops for sending to command posts in Syria officers that failed miserably in Ukraine. Is this true?
"Russian telegram channels are wildly critizising the Keystone Cops for sending to command posts in Syria officers that failed miserably in Ukraine. Is this true?"
Sadly, it's true. Besides it was considered as a good spot for "vacation".
Thanks Tom for intro into situation. It is very hard to understand how allies are created in Syria.
But both Kurds(USA) and Rebels(Turkey, Katar) wants to have more area and there is only small together border, USA wants to defeat Asad and Russia so why don't them fight together against weak Asad now. Maybe in future there will be no more such possibility. Russia after war in UA( if it ends) can help ASAD much more as now. I am trying always to think logically, but here it is absolutely not possible.
Reading the NYT today I was miffed they gave no context to the push into Aleppo. After reading this, I'm not so sure they weren't doing me a favor ;)
What does this mean for Ukraine? Am I wrong that the big question here, if I read between your lines, is that Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to fund its position in Syria and might lose it? That's what I've been expecting for a long time. The recent fall of the ruble harbinger of worse to come for Russia's Empire. Yes? No?
I cannot see this as good news from the point of Russia. Hope their airbases gets overrun, but I guess they are protected. Of course Russia has trouble with its empire these days as they clearly are overextended, but they still do manage to hurt others unfortunately.
Many thanks, Tom, for all your work but particularly for this one on Syrian quagmire. Sometimes it reminds me of a group of Midde-age Keystones, people in need of fresh aire and so, playing Risk with real people (instead of playing tokens).
I said Risk purposely, because I thought they can’t cope with a regular strategic game’s rules.
The once powerful Syria (in a regional sense) is now a broken country that go to remain that for long time, IMHO.
The most puzzling thing is Türkiye behaviour, even if selfish.
What about the Kataib Hezbollah? They have no parts here? Also, what is USA's goal with PKK? Are they trying to punish Turkey for some reason? All very complicated.
US CENTCOM is trying to build an ethno sectarian Kurdish statelet spanning from Iraq KRG (aka Iraqi Kurdistan) all the way across the Jezire (Arab region spanning from Mosul to Aleppo) to the mediterranean sea.
As for why ? US generals going into a rampage after turning their Great War on Terror into their sole identity (so they go against anything they identify as Arab or Muslim) and that infamous McGurk (de facto continuous US viceroy of ME since the Barrack Obama administration) holding some grudge against TR for who knows what reason
Worth pointing out for those solely focus on Ukraine that Syrians rebels in Idlib offer an exemple of path forward for Ukrainians too.
Since the conflict was "frozen" in 2020, they used the lull in fighting to enforce strong military and civil reforms. HTS dominated rebels completely re-organized their military structures, improved their equipment with the acquisition of thermals vision (of which Russia supported forces used to enjoy absolute superiority), developed their improvised drone arsenal and apparently built an extensive covert network in occupied territories. They focused on the improvements they could do autonomously as to not remain completely dependent of foreign backing and so become pantin to fickle foreign backers.
As the limitation of AFU and the need for comprehensive reforms are so often discussed, this is a exemple to follow and why a temporary truce could be used effectively to liberate the country later.
Edit : kind of unbelievable to see Zenki still around considering their history indeed.
They were "wiped out" as a brigade holding territories in 2018 along Suqour al-Sham after their last round of fighting against HTS. Then went to Afrin and immediately caused trouble until their elements were disarmed by SNA brigades.
As far as I remember, their reconciliation started a few years ago when one of the factions leader lost a family member to old age and their once rivals sent a delegation to offer condolence. Though I cant remember if it was HTS sending a condolence to Zenki family or the other way around. It was in Afrin so I guess it was the first.
It not completely unexpected to see again some Zenki since the group was effectively the communities immediately north west of Aleppo mobilized (the very locations the current offensive sought to liberate first) but to see them as a coherent relatively autonomous group. Meanwhile some, lets say, less polemical groups like Fastaqim effectively dissolved into SNA and its members scattered or lay their weapons low to survive as refugees.
By the way, afaik ex Suqour al-Sham are also part of the effort since Issa al-Sheikh reconciled with Jojo too. To think he even lost a son during the infighting era.
It is good that all of them came to their sense even if too much blood had already been spilled. Good from "Jojo". I guess he realized magnanimity and reconciliation are better than militant maximalist after all the troubled he had with Hurras ad Deen / AQ purists.
Did you saw Hamza Division and Sultan Suleyman Shah are among the party under the "Joint Force" cognomen ? Those two used to be the most enthusiastic TR auxiliaries. The later even deployed in Tripoli (Libya). And here they are after their fallout with TR.
A journalist mentioned Sultan Murad as well although I saw no visual confirmation (link below). Those three used to be the 3 brigades most aligned to TR with their leaders announcing every Friday afternoon they were about to march on Idlib and destroy HTS.
Tbh when I read some Azov leaders personal posts talking about how they see the wider Ukrainian society, not to speak about their mumbling of white racists raging against Islam ... I cant held but find similarities with how Syrians insurgents talked about one another. Hopefully they will see the light too and focus on what unites them with their people like Syrians insurgents did post 2020.
As silly as it sounds, the current success are also due to HTS stopping nonsense like harassing cigarette smokers. Ence why "Abu Tow" is in Aleppo taking selfies, ready to trounce SAA tanks like old time.
Edit :
As a French scholar highly familiar with Syrian (religious) circles, Thomas Pierret, noted years ago, HTS under Jolani essentially followed the old Ahrar al-Sham trajectory with a 4 years delay of moving away from puritanical AQ ideology to coming to terms with their Syrian people including the non Sunnis. But unlike AaS which became too dependant on TR & Qatar support, HTS has remained autonomous and so focus on what it could improve alone.
Zelensky reminds me of the others insurgents who lost all their hope and all of their confidences in themselves. Ofc they were right about the need for external support but you can clearly see from afar they lost their belief and became apathetic. I am not blaming them. It is just sad. Ukraine should avoid it but Zelensky seem to head the country in this exact spot.
Up to this day I still cant believe there was no mobilization of the whole country before the 22nd Feb full invasion. Or Shortly after. For a country facing an existential threat, the whole country needs to be mobilized. Otherwise a few at the front will bear an overwhelming burden. I still cant believe it to this day.
That is an excellent point which has been raised by the likes of Arestovich a number of times. Ukrainian leadership appears to be still confused as to whether this is an existential threat or not.
External communications suggest it is, but internal actions such as limited mobilisation, no war economy to speak of, etc. suggest it is not.
Wow, this article answered a lot of my questions regarding this event. Unfortunately though, it also made me have at least twice the amount of new questions...
This was the article that I desperately needed because to be honest I was not even able to comprehend half of the acronyms while reading the reports. Thanks again for clearing the mist around the Syrian situation in my head. On the other hand, this whole conflict still seems to be the most confusing ever I have followed and one thing is sure, peace in that civil war thorn country still seems to be generations away.
Another intetesting point is a high percent of foreign fighters, especially from Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Uyghurs from China, and etc. Looks like Turkey collected all jihadist scum and threw it into the battle.
P.S. All in, a brilliant Turkish operation. Funny that Erdogan who officially cursed Israel, acted like an Israel proxy.
Shall I start posting videos to Wagner mercenaries torturing, mutilating and summarily executing Syrians? About the VKS cheering 'hits on IS' while targeting Syrian civilians fleeing from the IS?
Your Pudding has overstretched himself. The IRGC/Hezbollah too. And Assadists are just as incompetent as they always were.
Wagners were ruthless, but were executing ISIS/AQ fighters, not civilians. VKS never targeted civilians though no denial of huge collateral damage of unguided bombs. But I got accustomed to your cliche, no problem.
It is not much of Russia overstreching but rather generally Shiah forces in the region. Old triangle (Israel-Turkey-Arab monarchies) did it great. I agree about Assadists inability to create something worthy military wise. Apparently, this regime is doomed.
Sigh... EVERY SINGLE DAY there is a new video showing RUSSIAN thugs summarily executing disarmed soldiers of the Ukrainian Army.
Unless you start pointing out such practices of the armed mob still known as the 'Armed Forces of the Russian Federation', you're simply the wrong person to complain about such practices.
Thanks for the SITREP. Could you please provided a bit of context. Aleppo (according to Wiki) has a population of ballpark 2 million. Any rough idea how many active insurgents are taking place in this incursion? For example - 2,000 sounds like a lot - until you spread them out across 70 square miles. Taking all these locations - is that simply a photo op or are they securing them and sifting intel, restocking ammo from captured supplies, etc. Presumably not taking prisoners as that'd tie up a significant number of otherwise potential combatants. Recognize that there's no "certain" number - but an informed estimate would provide some perspective.
Re. population of Aleppo: no idea. It swell due to all the refugees, then the IRGC and Assadists returned and many have fled.... all the while, the western side of the city remained untouched by fighting (east and south were completely destroyed). How many people are around nowadays: really, no clue.
And yes, by now, this is definitely a major operation to liberate Idlib and Aleppo. And I doubt the insurgents are going to stop on their own.
Sorry Tom, your clear and concise explanation of the convoluted situation in Syria tops your reports on Ukraine if only by outlining various and bizarre (by some combatants, i.e. the US) alignments, motivations and strategic goals of warring parties. Please continue.
Thanks a million Tom, we’ve been waiting for this crazy explanation of a crazy situation. It reminds me of the rebel alliance in the sci-fi series, The Expanse from a few years ago. So, the Israelis are the hand moving the US and Turk arms. I still think Erdoghan missed the boat in 2011 when he could have stepped in and set things up as he liked. Turkey is the real counterweight to Israel.
Given how complex the whole situation apparently is, the media can report basically anything and still get it partially right I guess. Just reading this article has put an immense strain on my short term memory and I found myself scrolling up and down more then on Twitter :p Thanks for the report, Tom!
Thanks Tom. What a mess.
Syria once stood as a powerful regional country. Poor civilians.
What about Turkiye regional goals? They have their oun agenda and negotiate with all sides in the three major wars that are developing. And they have allies or are supportive in one and in another are supporting other side. Clearly, their support their own side. But what they try to achieve?
Russia, the same. Why are still russian troops there while fighting a major war in Ukraine?
Russian telegram channels are wildly critizising the Keystone Cops for sending to command posts in Syria officers that failed miserably in Ukraine. Is this true?
"Russian telegram channels are wildly critizising the Keystone Cops for sending to command posts in Syria officers that failed miserably in Ukraine. Is this true?"
Sadly, it's true. Besides it was considered as a good spot for "vacation".
Thanks Tom for intro into situation. It is very hard to understand how allies are created in Syria.
But both Kurds(USA) and Rebels(Turkey, Katar) wants to have more area and there is only small together border, USA wants to defeat Asad and Russia so why don't them fight together against weak Asad now. Maybe in future there will be no more such possibility. Russia after war in UA( if it ends) can help ASAD much more as now. I am trying always to think logically, but here it is absolutely not possible.
Reading the NYT today I was miffed they gave no context to the push into Aleppo. After reading this, I'm not so sure they weren't doing me a favor ;)
What does this mean for Ukraine? Am I wrong that the big question here, if I read between your lines, is that Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to fund its position in Syria and might lose it? That's what I've been expecting for a long time. The recent fall of the ruble harbinger of worse to come for Russia's Empire. Yes? No?
Yes👍🏻, please🙏🏻 a.s.a.p
I cannot see this as good news from the point of Russia. Hope their airbases gets overrun, but I guess they are protected. Of course Russia has trouble with its empire these days as they clearly are overextended, but they still do manage to hurt others unfortunately.
Many thanks, Tom, for all your work but particularly for this one on Syrian quagmire. Sometimes it reminds me of a group of Midde-age Keystones, people in need of fresh aire and so, playing Risk with real people (instead of playing tokens).
I said Risk purposely, because I thought they can’t cope with a regular strategic game’s rules.
The once powerful Syria (in a regional sense) is now a broken country that go to remain that for long time, IMHO.
The most puzzling thing is Türkiye behaviour, even if selfish.
What about the Kataib Hezbollah? They have no parts here? Also, what is USA's goal with PKK? Are they trying to punish Turkey for some reason? All very complicated.
US CENTCOM is trying to build an ethno sectarian Kurdish statelet spanning from Iraq KRG (aka Iraqi Kurdistan) all the way across the Jezire (Arab region spanning from Mosul to Aleppo) to the mediterranean sea.
As for why ? US generals going into a rampage after turning their Great War on Terror into their sole identity (so they go against anything they identify as Arab or Muslim) and that infamous McGurk (de facto continuous US viceroy of ME since the Barrack Obama administration) holding some grudge against TR for who knows what reason
Worth pointing out for those solely focus on Ukraine that Syrians rebels in Idlib offer an exemple of path forward for Ukrainians too.
Since the conflict was "frozen" in 2020, they used the lull in fighting to enforce strong military and civil reforms. HTS dominated rebels completely re-organized their military structures, improved their equipment with the acquisition of thermals vision (of which Russia supported forces used to enjoy absolute superiority), developed their improvised drone arsenal and apparently built an extensive covert network in occupied territories. They focused on the improvements they could do autonomously as to not remain completely dependent of foreign backing and so become pantin to fickle foreign backers.
As the limitation of AFU and the need for comprehensive reforms are so often discussed, this is a exemple to follow and why a temporary truce could be used effectively to liberate the country later.
Edit : kind of unbelievable to see Zenki still around considering their history indeed.
Indeed... recalling contemporary reporting, I thought the Zenghis have been 'exterminated'...
They were "wiped out" as a brigade holding territories in 2018 along Suqour al-Sham after their last round of fighting against HTS. Then went to Afrin and immediately caused trouble until their elements were disarmed by SNA brigades.
As far as I remember, their reconciliation started a few years ago when one of the factions leader lost a family member to old age and their once rivals sent a delegation to offer condolence. Though I cant remember if it was HTS sending a condolence to Zenki family or the other way around. It was in Afrin so I guess it was the first.
It not completely unexpected to see again some Zenki since the group was effectively the communities immediately north west of Aleppo mobilized (the very locations the current offensive sought to liberate first) but to see them as a coherent relatively autonomous group. Meanwhile some, lets say, less polemical groups like Fastaqim effectively dissolved into SNA and its members scattered or lay their weapons low to survive as refugees.
By the way, afaik ex Suqour al-Sham are also part of the effort since Issa al-Sheikh reconciled with Jojo too. To think he even lost a son during the infighting era.
It is good that all of them came to their sense even if too much blood had already been spilled. Good from "Jojo". I guess he realized magnanimity and reconciliation are better than militant maximalist after all the troubled he had with Hurras ad Deen / AQ purists.
Did you saw Hamza Division and Sultan Suleyman Shah are among the party under the "Joint Force" cognomen ? Those two used to be the most enthusiastic TR auxiliaries. The later even deployed in Tripoli (Libya). And here they are after their fallout with TR.
A journalist mentioned Sultan Murad as well although I saw no visual confirmation (link below). Those three used to be the 3 brigades most aligned to TR with their leaders announcing every Friday afternoon they were about to march on Idlib and destroy HTS.
https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1861874168838410665
Tbh when I read some Azov leaders personal posts talking about how they see the wider Ukrainian society, not to speak about their mumbling of white racists raging against Islam ... I cant held but find similarities with how Syrians insurgents talked about one another. Hopefully they will see the light too and focus on what unites them with their people like Syrians insurgents did post 2020.
As silly as it sounds, the current success are also due to HTS stopping nonsense like harassing cigarette smokers. Ence why "Abu Tow" is in Aleppo taking selfies, ready to trounce SAA tanks like old time.
Edit :
As a French scholar highly familiar with Syrian (religious) circles, Thomas Pierret, noted years ago, HTS under Jolani essentially followed the old Ahrar al-Sham trajectory with a 4 years delay of moving away from puritanical AQ ideology to coming to terms with their Syrian people including the non Sunnis. But unlike AaS which became too dependant on TR & Qatar support, HTS has remained autonomous and so focus on what it could improve alone.
Zelensky reminds me of the others insurgents who lost all their hope and all of their confidences in themselves. Ofc they were right about the need for external support but you can clearly see from afar they lost their belief and became apathetic. I am not blaming them. It is just sad. Ukraine should avoid it but Zelensky seem to head the country in this exact spot.
Up to this day I still cant believe there was no mobilization of the whole country before the 22nd Feb full invasion. Or Shortly after. For a country facing an existential threat, the whole country needs to be mobilized. Otherwise a few at the front will bear an overwhelming burden. I still cant believe it to this day.
That is an excellent point which has been raised by the likes of Arestovich a number of times. Ukrainian leadership appears to be still confused as to whether this is an existential threat or not.
External communications suggest it is, but internal actions such as limited mobilisation, no war economy to speak of, etc. suggest it is not.
Yeah its really weird
Wow, this article answered a lot of my questions regarding this event. Unfortunately though, it also made me have at least twice the amount of new questions...
This was the article that I desperately needed because to be honest I was not even able to comprehend half of the acronyms while reading the reports. Thanks again for clearing the mist around the Syrian situation in my head. On the other hand, this whole conflict still seems to be the most confusing ever I have followed and one thing is sure, peace in that civil war thorn country still seems to be generations away.
Tom forgot to mention direct Turkish involvement: Turkish officers are commanding islamists troops and the word is that Bayraktars were also used.
And, of course, Tom would not be Tom, if not describe VKS bombing "civilians" and use FPvs against "civilians".
A group of such armed peaceful "civilians" were just hit by VKS near Aleppo:
https://t.me/ChDambiev/33053
And another hit on "civilians":
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/146166?single
One more:
https://t.me/vorposte/65300
And here's the video of peaceful islamists executing surrendered Syrian soldiers (graphic):
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/146191
Another intetesting point is a high percent of foreign fighters, especially from Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Uyghurs from China, and etc. Looks like Turkey collected all jihadist scum and threw it into the battle.
P.S. All in, a brilliant Turkish operation. Funny that Erdogan who officially cursed Israel, acted like an Israel proxy.
Shall I start posting videos to Wagner mercenaries torturing, mutilating and summarily executing Syrians? About the VKS cheering 'hits on IS' while targeting Syrian civilians fleeing from the IS?
Your Pudding has overstretched himself. The IRGC/Hezbollah too. And Assadists are just as incompetent as they always were.
Accept it and live with it.
Wagners were ruthless, but were executing ISIS/AQ fighters, not civilians. VKS never targeted civilians though no denial of huge collateral damage of unguided bombs. But I got accustomed to your cliche, no problem.
It is not much of Russia overstreching but rather generally Shiah forces in the region. Old triangle (Israel-Turkey-Arab monarchies) did it great. I agree about Assadists inability to create something worthy military wise. Apparently, this regime is doomed.
Sigh... EVERY SINGLE DAY there is a new video showing RUSSIAN thugs summarily executing disarmed soldiers of the Ukrainian Army.
Unless you start pointing out such practices of the armed mob still known as the 'Armed Forces of the Russian Federation', you're simply the wrong person to complain about such practices.
Thanks for the SITREP. Could you please provided a bit of context. Aleppo (according to Wiki) has a population of ballpark 2 million. Any rough idea how many active insurgents are taking place in this incursion? For example - 2,000 sounds like a lot - until you spread them out across 70 square miles. Taking all these locations - is that simply a photo op or are they securing them and sifting intel, restocking ammo from captured supplies, etc. Presumably not taking prisoners as that'd tie up a significant number of otherwise potential combatants. Recognize that there's no "certain" number - but an informed estimate would provide some perspective.
Re. population of Aleppo: no idea. It swell due to all the refugees, then the IRGC and Assadists returned and many have fled.... all the while, the western side of the city remained untouched by fighting (east and south were completely destroyed). How many people are around nowadays: really, no clue.
And yes, by now, this is definitely a major operation to liberate Idlib and Aleppo. And I doubt the insurgents are going to stop on their own.
Thank you Tom !
Sorry Tom, your clear and concise explanation of the convoluted situation in Syria tops your reports on Ukraine if only by outlining various and bizarre (by some combatants, i.e. the US) alignments, motivations and strategic goals of warring parties. Please continue.
Thanks for the update. Utter chaos seems like, but the insurgents has momentum. And YPG is fishing in troubled waters. Interesting times indeed.
Ugh. What a mess...
Thanks for the rundown!
I won't say it's clear now - but at least now I know how big mess this is ..
Thanks a million Tom, we’ve been waiting for this crazy explanation of a crazy situation. It reminds me of the rebel alliance in the sci-fi series, The Expanse from a few years ago. So, the Israelis are the hand moving the US and Turk arms. I still think Erdoghan missed the boat in 2011 when he could have stepped in and set things up as he liked. Turkey is the real counterweight to Israel.