News reported from Russia says that CMO guaranteed them security for the bases, which could be the case for earlier mentioned 48 hours. I highly doubt that they can easily forget all bombing done by VKS…
Thanks heaven we've got you and your unbeatable insights into the psyche of 'ordinary fighters'.
Cannot but wonder: where were you about a week ago, when the Keystone Cops in Moscow, plus their allies in Tehran, and Damascus, were in urgent need of advice about the psychology of Syrian insurgents?
If nothing else, you must admit: you've missed _the_ opportunity for some handsome income...
Truth is ordinary people tend to remember a lot longer than governments, leaders and bureaucrats.
I've known older Australians who still distrusted the Japanese despite Japan being defeated in 1945 and being part of western alliance system since 1950s.
And don't get me started on my various peoples - Serbs and Croats. Long memories indeed.
But governments, leaders and bureaucrats are far more transactional in nature (other than American ones who still obsess on punishing Cuba for toppling Batista in 1958).
Very true. It's why Balkans politicians sometimes every now and then put a bit more fuel on the fire just to keep the pot of hate slowly bubbling away lest they "need" it one day.
Indeed, should they have listened to my advice, Assad would stay a couple of days more.)))) Unfortunately, red tape is unbeatable.
Anyway, considering that the last possible salvation of Assad regime, namely, Ebrahim Raisi, suspiciously timely died in aircrash, even my precious thoughts (without Iranian assistance) would be just a sand in the wind.
P.S. as per the psyche of "ordinary fighters", have no worry Tom, since you are relatively young, you will have a chance to get them to know better, say, in 30 years, after Austria will become another member of European Khalipate.)))
It sounded so nice when the Russian complete withdrawal suddenly seemed on the cards especially if there was any chance the Ukrainians did help with their drone warfare expertise.
It could be there's really an agreement, as Moscow claims. And it could be that's all just another Russian PRBS-hoax.
On the other hand: it could be that in the light of Israeli air strikes, the CMO concluded they need some serious air defences - and got these in exchange for the Russian recognition of the SSG's government. After all, another of the Russian reports today is that the flag of the Syria on its embassy in Moscow is going to be replaced by that of the Revolutionary Syria.
I guess this could be the only way they would be allowed to stay. But that would also mean substantial support against Israel and not just lip service.
Interesting. It's _possible_ the IRGC (and perhaps also Putin) decided now was the time to let Assad fall gracefully. With Israel's genocide going on in Gaza and Lebanon the IRGC might have thought this was the best time to have a chance to shape the character of the new regime. But I'm still highly skeptical about how this is going to play out.
Hmm. That would ruin their reputation completely and absolutely no one would like to make a deal with them at all. (A little bit like the saying "France loves treason, but not the traitor).
Let's at the moment accept the Reuters message as real. A deal can only be made under 2 premises:
1) The new government has no choice, so actually it wouldn't be a deal but a dictate. But that is actually not the case, so we can forget point 1)
2) The IRGC has something to offer, which could be useful for the new government. Money for example, much needed for the reconstruction of the country. So a deal is possible.
Let us not forget Syria is a poor country and completely devasteted. So we will have to wait and hope for the best possible outcome to the benefit of the country and it's population, which is already coming back in droves.
Is it really that easy to destroy intelligence these days?
I don't doubt you know it better, just being curious. Would expect that whatever data Assad had should be backed up well enough to survive some of the hardware being bombed. If no one else, Iran shall have it, and if Israel pushes the thuggery too hard, the new government might just find the way to establish relations with Tehran.
No doubt the Israelis are using their software prowess to take down whatever digital systems the Syrian intelligence used.
However also note Syria was a poor country and it's dictatorship over 60 year old. They would have had millions of paper files on record.
I work in government (health administration) here in Australia and despite an attempt to digitise huge amounts of older files are still paper based. Digitizing paper files is exorbitant.
I would, however, expect decades-old paper based intelligence to be mostly obsolete by now - like, of what use is a record on a plain foreign national who visited 35 and died 20 years ago? Conversely, whatever was relevant and used in the past years ought to be digitized - even a poor country has money for things that matter for the regime.
Those buildings would also contain mainframe computers and hard disks too. Those are now melted and twisted scrap. Those machines would have been full of data.
Also old documentation can be very useful for a number of reasons eg embarrassing existing foes, information of operations, information of infiltrated networks. Some intelligence operations go on for decades (eg sleepers). Or information on radar/radio frequencies etc etc.
Finally it could be they still used a lot of paper files as well. Remember Israel could infiltrate Iranian networks and that country is richer. So older methods might be better and more secure (it's why Hezbollah used pagers).
And then there's just plain old bureuacratic inertia. Indeed given the Assadist intelligence network failed to notice this build up tells me their organisational culture and efficiency left much to be desired.
Since another anti-Israel regime gone (the first was Saddam, and the Colonel was the second), we gonna see a lot of amazing things at ME, considering that MAGA''s team is full of devoted zionists, whilst Turkey and Azeri were principal suppliers of oil to Holy Land.
Land grab… yes. But for defense. Let the Israelis have their defensive positions.
The real war or next diplomacy phase is for the coast. Without that, the Syrian area will be beholden to whichever outside country. You need access to the water for trade so you can actually grow and resist whoever.
Hopefully the new government will focus on trade and diplomacy after the needed fighting. All of Syria is going to need massive amounts of money and expertise to rebuild. And the key to that is the coast with a deep water port.
A nice comment to stir up people to hate. Syrians need to work and grow. Hate will just keep them down.
Switzerland is the wrong analogy. This would set up Syrians for failure. It isn’t surrounded by enemies that would love to see them fall. Syria doesn’t have banking, and really any, power. Switzerland did not come back from 14 years of civil war, and almost 75 years of being crushed under a boot.
Syria needs to lead by their own example and not some example in the West, East, or anywhere else. There is no example for them to use; it’s up to them and their trade and diplomacy.
In particular, they need to lead by example because no one has their best interests in mind except themselves. Countries will use them as a tool unless they show the strength to oppose this
2) Syria shouldn't look at others. But the Syrian sea trade isn't really stellar.
If one looks for merchant fleets, where is Syria? In 2023 the Syrian trade bilance was negative, not the best requirement for building up the country. What did it export in the past? Oil and agricultural products with the problem it's oil reserves are not that big and agricultural products have a small margin.
By the way, not every one around them is hostile. Really hostile and that for decades already is only one certein neighbour state.
Thanks for the update. Russia may of course lie regarding a deal with CMO. But what would CMO get out of the deal? They are probably busy taking control a lot of places and unlikely to be able to do anything about Russian bases now. But then again, if the collapse is complete maybe not. CMO might get of course be willing to make a deal, but it has to have something for them. Unsure what. The head of Assad on a platter might do it, but… Otherwise I guess at a minimum Russia would have to bomb somebody else than CMO. Or defend against Israeli airforce. But if there is a deal it will be interesting. (As a curse probably.)
If they really seized Khan Arnabeh, which is just a few hundred meters underneath Camp Faouar (the main UN camp on the Syrian side, the other one on the Israelian side is camp Ziouani) then they not only broke the armistice, but also broke the mandate of the UN mission and are blocking the work of the mission as the logistics for the mission are situated at camp Faouar
Once a warmonger, always a warmonger. That scoundrel will finally be the gravedigger of Israel.
If the UN doesn't react to it the world can start to dissolve the UN, because then it is absolutely useless and just a waste of money.
Addition:
So the Israelian side want to act as stand up comedians? The wording ‘destruction of strategic weapons’ that ‘could fall into the hands of elements hostile to Israel’ would imply that the Assad regime wasn't hostile to Israel.
"Whatever intelligence services are now going to be established in Syria, they’ll have to start from the scratch, without a clue what did the Assadist (and the Israelis) know about what Syrians and/(or foreigners."
Nah, Backups / Duplications should als be a thing in Syria 2024.
The Syrians were always fond of the original paper files. That allowed them to present the original British wanted files for Menachem Begin (wanted as a terrorist) to the public during one of the peace talk conferences of last century.
One minute we hear that CMO wants all foreign forces out of the country, next that the Russian bases are staying. Plus ca change
That so happens when the Russians have no trace of clue even what is the CMO.
US stated that its forces will not leave Syria.)))
News reported from Russia says that CMO guaranteed them security for the bases, which could be the case for earlier mentioned 48 hours. I highly doubt that they can easily forget all bombing done by VKS…
Ordinary fighters may not forget, but their leaders will do what Turkey and some other "behind the scene" players will order.
BTW, Israeli airforce also attacked a number of modern SAM systems abandoned by goverment forces. Already saw a photo of Pantsyr and Buk destroyed.
Thanks heaven we've got you and your unbeatable insights into the psyche of 'ordinary fighters'.
Cannot but wonder: where were you about a week ago, when the Keystone Cops in Moscow, plus their allies in Tehran, and Damascus, were in urgent need of advice about the psychology of Syrian insurgents?
If nothing else, you must admit: you've missed _the_ opportunity for some handsome income...
I guess he was waiting for instructions. .....cough, no I mean inspiration.
Truth is ordinary people tend to remember a lot longer than governments, leaders and bureaucrats.
I've known older Australians who still distrusted the Japanese despite Japan being defeated in 1945 and being part of western alliance system since 1950s.
And don't get me started on my various peoples - Serbs and Croats. Long memories indeed.
But governments, leaders and bureaucrats are far more transactional in nature (other than American ones who still obsess on punishing Cuba for toppling Batista in 1958).
Governments remember what is useful for them. If they need to rekindle some conflict be sure they will remember their history.
Very true. It's why Balkans politicians sometimes every now and then put a bit more fuel on the fire just to keep the pot of hate slowly bubbling away lest they "need" it one day.
Right, so what may appear to be a historical grievance can be a face for something transactional
Indeed, should they have listened to my advice, Assad would stay a couple of days more.)))) Unfortunately, red tape is unbeatable.
Anyway, considering that the last possible salvation of Assad regime, namely, Ebrahim Raisi, suspiciously timely died in aircrash, even my precious thoughts (without Iranian assistance) would be just a sand in the wind.
P.S. as per the psyche of "ordinary fighters", have no worry Tom, since you are relatively young, you will have a chance to get them to know better, say, in 30 years, after Austria will become another member of European Khalipate.)))
How....? Aren't we already a member of European Khaliphate?
All the Putin-paid shills here say we already are...
Photo is actually from Syria (hospital visit, can see arabic) https://i.imgur.com/efeT5CY.png
Thx. Will 'update'.
Bugger,...
It sounded so nice when the Russian complete withdrawal suddenly seemed on the cards especially if there was any chance the Ukrainians did help with their drone warfare expertise.
Cheers.
As said: wait and see.
It could be there's really an agreement, as Moscow claims. And it could be that's all just another Russian PRBS-hoax.
On the other hand: it could be that in the light of Israeli air strikes, the CMO concluded they need some serious air defences - and got these in exchange for the Russian recognition of the SSG's government. After all, another of the Russian reports today is that the flag of the Syria on its embassy in Moscow is going to be replaced by that of the Revolutionary Syria.
I guess this could be the only way they would be allowed to stay. But that would also mean substantial support against Israel and not just lip service.
That would be a very interesting turn, if true.
Bibi ann Putin dance in blood...nothing new
The litmus test will come when the IRGC try to get cooperation with the CMO to operate their supply lines to Hezbollah through Syria.
Seems it is already happening now.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-direct-contact-with-groups-within-syrias-new-leadership-says-iranian-2024-12-09/
Interesting. It's _possible_ the IRGC (and perhaps also Putin) decided now was the time to let Assad fall gracefully. With Israel's genocide going on in Gaza and Lebanon the IRGC might have thought this was the best time to have a chance to shape the character of the new regime. But I'm still highly skeptical about how this is going to play out.
Hmm. That would ruin their reputation completely and absolutely no one would like to make a deal with them at all. (A little bit like the saying "France loves treason, but not the traitor).
Let's at the moment accept the Reuters message as real. A deal can only be made under 2 premises:
1) The new government has no choice, so actually it wouldn't be a deal but a dictate. But that is actually not the case, so we can forget point 1)
2) The IRGC has something to offer, which could be useful for the new government. Money for example, much needed for the reconstruction of the country. So a deal is possible.
Let us not forget Syria is a poor country and completely devasteted. So we will have to wait and hope for the best possible outcome to the benefit of the country and it's population, which is already coming back in droves.
Is it really that easy to destroy intelligence these days?
I don't doubt you know it better, just being curious. Would expect that whatever data Assad had should be backed up well enough to survive some of the hardware being bombed. If no one else, Iran shall have it, and if Israel pushes the thuggery too hard, the new government might just find the way to establish relations with Tehran.
No doubt the Israelis are using their software prowess to take down whatever digital systems the Syrian intelligence used.
However also note Syria was a poor country and it's dictatorship over 60 year old. They would have had millions of paper files on record.
I work in government (health administration) here in Australia and despite an attempt to digitise huge amounts of older files are still paper based. Digitizing paper files is exorbitant.
You have a point.
I would, however, expect decades-old paper based intelligence to be mostly obsolete by now - like, of what use is a record on a plain foreign national who visited 35 and died 20 years ago? Conversely, whatever was relevant and used in the past years ought to be digitized - even a poor country has money for things that matter for the regime.
All this is probably just guesswork in any case.
Those buildings would also contain mainframe computers and hard disks too. Those are now melted and twisted scrap. Those machines would have been full of data.
Also old documentation can be very useful for a number of reasons eg embarrassing existing foes, information of operations, information of infiltrated networks. Some intelligence operations go on for decades (eg sleepers). Or information on radar/radio frequencies etc etc.
Finally it could be they still used a lot of paper files as well. Remember Israel could infiltrate Iranian networks and that country is richer. So older methods might be better and more secure (it's why Hezbollah used pagers).
And then there's just plain old bureuacratic inertia. Indeed given the Assadist intelligence network failed to notice this build up tells me their organisational culture and efficiency left much to be desired.
When you have deadlines to digitise (performed by a contractor) you would be surprised what gets tossed to meet the deadline.
In Syria, everything was in papers, not in PCs.
".....indicating some sort of an agreement with the CMO for the Russia to retain its bases in the country."
Business is Business. Hey .......it's the Levant.
OR
Meet the new Boss....same as blah blah...
Fucking israelis...but Ofc u will be called anti semite for the rest of your life now
How dare you!!!
Tel hai to Greater Israel!
Since another anti-Israel regime gone (the first was Saddam, and the Colonel was the second), we gonna see a lot of amazing things at ME, considering that MAGA''s team is full of devoted zionists, whilst Turkey and Azeri were principal suppliers of oil to Holy Land.
Land grab… yes. But for defense. Let the Israelis have their defensive positions.
The real war or next diplomacy phase is for the coast. Without that, the Syrian area will be beholden to whichever outside country. You need access to the water for trade so you can actually grow and resist whoever.
Hopefully the new government will focus on trade and diplomacy after the needed fighting. All of Syria is going to need massive amounts of money and expertise to rebuild. And the key to that is the coast with a deep water port.
My 2 cents from a couple worlds away.
They would always cry for more land, just for defense till the whole world would be theirs.
Trade can be done without ports, there are more than enough examples, look at Switzerland.
A nice comment to stir up people to hate. Syrians need to work and grow. Hate will just keep them down.
Switzerland is the wrong analogy. This would set up Syrians for failure. It isn’t surrounded by enemies that would love to see them fall. Syria doesn’t have banking, and really any, power. Switzerland did not come back from 14 years of civil war, and almost 75 years of being crushed under a boot.
Syria needs to lead by their own example and not some example in the West, East, or anywhere else. There is no example for them to use; it’s up to them and their trade and diplomacy.
In particular, they need to lead by example because no one has their best interests in mind except themselves. Countries will use them as a tool unless they show the strength to oppose this
Also I agree about maritime trade. Its efficiency and flexibility is required for many countries, including Syria
Now you leave me scratching my head, because:
1) You come up with the idea of sea trade.
2) Syria shouldn't look at others. But the Syrian sea trade isn't really stellar.
If one looks for merchant fleets, where is Syria? In 2023 the Syrian trade bilance was negative, not the best requirement for building up the country. What did it export in the past? Oil and agricultural products with the problem it's oil reserves are not that big and agricultural products have a small margin.
By the way, not every one around them is hostile. Really hostile and that for decades already is only one certein neighbour state.
Thanks Tom. Can you tell me where there are ISIS targets in Syria that could be targeted by US strategic bombers?
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-08-2024#cm4fztauz003a3b6uxwy0mtvd
That's what I'm wondering about the entire afternoon - ever since reading the related CENCTOM release.
Theoretically: 'somewhere east of Palmyra'. But, exactly where...
Thanks for the update. Russia may of course lie regarding a deal with CMO. But what would CMO get out of the deal? They are probably busy taking control a lot of places and unlikely to be able to do anything about Russian bases now. But then again, if the collapse is complete maybe not. CMO might get of course be willing to make a deal, but it has to have something for them. Unsure what. The head of Assad on a platter might do it, but… Otherwise I guess at a minimum Russia would have to bomb somebody else than CMO. Or defend against Israeli airforce. But if there is a deal it will be interesting. (As a curse probably.)
I'm quite sure Russia lies.
At least do not recall Russia telling truth any more.
Any more? When tell a real statement?
We think Ukraine is part of Russia?
Accidentally? Which this is not of course.
The title hits the nail on the head.
If they really seized Khan Arnabeh, which is just a few hundred meters underneath Camp Faouar (the main UN camp on the Syrian side, the other one on the Israelian side is camp Ziouani) then they not only broke the armistice, but also broke the mandate of the UN mission and are blocking the work of the mission as the logistics for the mission are situated at camp Faouar
Once a warmonger, always a warmonger. That scoundrel will finally be the gravedigger of Israel.
If the UN doesn't react to it the world can start to dissolve the UN, because then it is absolutely useless and just a waste of money.
Addition:
So the Israelian side want to act as stand up comedians? The wording ‘destruction of strategic weapons’ that ‘could fall into the hands of elements hostile to Israel’ would imply that the Assad regime wasn't hostile to Israel.
The next best today was the CENTCOM.
Deployed B-52 strategic bombers and 15+ tactical fighters, and 100 PGMs to hit... WTF exactly? 'Command centres of the ISIS'.
...in the middle of the Badya desert... 🙄
Command centres of [ insert entity name here].
I guess they couldn't find them so they did it in their tradition of area saturation bombing to be sure that even all the bacteria were killed.
Every second post here - Israel, jews, zionist, bla bla bla. Like a proper amateur painter of the past.
Forget that fucking jew issue for a second a try to insert a week or two of posts without sounding like a broken record of the 30s.
You have been an interesting read in the past, keep up or fuck off.
Sure.
Every second? Isn't it every single one? I've been declared an anti-Semite at least 6.793 times: don't want to ruin my reputation now...
And yes, I promise to do so - as soon as you start donating parts of the country where you live to Israel.
Keep going Tom and don't look back to those...? be like the palm tree when thrown with a rock it gives the most delicious fruit.
You yourself have exactly one post that says “This is estvanja’s Substack.”
People who live in a fir branch lean-to should not be criticizing the architecture of an actual edifice.
"Whatever intelligence services are now going to be established in Syria, they’ll have to start from the scratch, without a clue what did the Assadist (and the Israelis) know about what Syrians and/(or foreigners."
Nah, Backups / Duplications should als be a thing in Syria 2024.
The Syrians were always fond of the original paper files. That allowed them to present the original British wanted files for Menachem Begin (wanted as a terrorist) to the public during one of the peace talk conferences of last century.
At 71 I have learned this guiding principle in life that never, ever, fails.
"No matter how cynical you become, it's never enough to keep up."
-Lily Tomlin
If Russia retains the bases that will undermine the new regime long term.