Sadly: true. And it's just as bad as it looks like.
Although I strongly suspect that Israel had a 'hunting permit' for Hezbollah and Hamas, issued by the Arab League: I don't think that this land-grab is covered in that too.
The unexpected, landslide-like fall of Assad left a big, numb, unattended hole there and they are just the first ones for a slice of the pie. And with that they'll not just destabilize any possible new Syria, but as others will also line up this may destabilize the whole area.
Ps.: just as an example - at this point Turkey (NATO member) may too feel free to intervene: they won't be the first. And likely not the last either...
I meant, by directly sending troops and occupying Syrian land.
...Yep. At this point 'matter of days' would not be a surprise. Not at all.
.
Hilarious that for years, Russia could not trigger any meaningful 'WWIII' kind of ripples: but now some rogue 'our boy' possibly brought us to the brink of it :/
Well, you never know if this US Reaper drone wasn't working for the SNA and hence could become hostile at some point.
You can never be paranoid enough when in support of the US! A non-fly zone over your territory and your troops get bombed to shreds. A wrongly interpreted ambassador quote and you become from supported buddy to Hitler and your country is bombed into pieces with a following embargo.
“The hands of Putin or China?” I think not. I appreciate your knowledge of facts on the ground , tactics weaponry etc. But I think some of your geopolitical speculations are speculative
If you think his analysis of the ground is fine, but his interpretation of the geopolitical situation is wrong then explain where the error is. It may be a fair criticism. Moving from «micro analysis» to macro (geopolitical) is a difficult excersise. But explain what is wrong and why. Concretely. Doubt will not get you much credit.
All very nice, however... the Daraa area has been notoriously unruly even during these past years, no matter how Assad had quote re-estabished unquote control. Seeing Israel's less than stellar performance in occupying Lebanon in the past, or quote pacifying unquote Gaza this year, just how much they are likely to pull off anything useful here? Or does the whole country run on crazed imperialism by now?
That 'unruly' Dera'a Province was controlled by insurgency from its liberation in 2012, until the Jordanians cancelled all the support for the local insurgency, in 2017.
Result?
They were left without options but to accept the Russian 'reconciliation'. Thousands were subsequently disappeared by the Assadists.
And for why are the Israelis doing this: sooner or later, their 'peaceful settlers' are going to arrive, and then, if anybody comes to the idea to demand their removal, it's going to be the same 'we can't remove so many settlers from the area' - like always.
I don't doubt Ben-Gvir and his ilk would be happy to colonize the place, they will colonize anything. However, settlers would first need the IDF to both oversee it and not notice what they themselves are doing. This is not the West Bank or Gaza, an enclosure or something that has been occupied for decades and abandoned by their original governments, left in perpetual limbo - this province has managed to defy Assad's terror machine with his capital nearby, even without foreign support, and now that the opportunity had presented itself, they have taken him down. They have won, and know it, making them much less likely to submit to another round of oppression. Israel can try, of course, but it seems like a very long shot to me - and if the IDF walks into an Iraq-style trap, their whole incursion will backfire badly.
But it's true that an Israeli or any other foreign occupation is beyond the last thing Syria needs now. I wonder if the new government would be ready to do what the Assads never did and recognize Israel, strictly behind its pre-1967 borders. Just to give Bibi another unpleasant dilemma when his radicals would urge him forward, but even his buffer zone is no longer justified.
That attack to Qamishli was a favor to Erdogan. And maybe not only these, because it make SNA less weaker to HTS. Turkish nationalists have considered northern Syria as part of Turkie always, so Erdogan aim is to have stable Syria but keep occupation of it's northern parts. Plus, Turkish defense sector can make good bucks selling arms to the new government (maybe for the gulf states money).
Sorry, but what you explain here is making absolutely no sense.
The control of Qamishli was shared, approx 50:50 between the Assadists and the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF. There was the Russian presence, too. About a week ago (see my earlier reports), the Assadists and the Russians packed their stuff and run away. Ever since, it's controlled by the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF.
The SNA is nowhere within 100km from there, and the HTS is a member of the CMO/SSG coalition, and this is presently busy trying to establish itself in power and stabilising the situation all over Syria. The closest the CMO troops are to Qamishli are northern approaches to Dayr az-Zawr (city).
So, how should the Israeli bombardment of Qamishli be a favour to Erdogan?
The SNA can't go and capture anything there. And the destruction of the local airport and ammo depots is counterproductive even for Israeli interest - which would be: support for the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF, so to further a renewed disintegration of Syria.
With other words: this is just another piece of typical Israeli BS. Bombing, killing and conquering because they can, and because there are going to be no consequences.
Yep, exactly, less ammo to SDF, easier SNA offensive and destruction of SDF. Israel and Turkie have collaborated in Azerbaijan and other things already, they can do favors to each other.
No surprise: back in 2013-2015, Türkye-controlled 'insurgents' looted the Syrian cement industry (which was insufficient for the development of the country already back in the 2000s) and sold all its parts they could - to Türkye...
Israel won’t allow Syria to maintain a sovereign national army unless it normalizes relations, or the country ends up under a Kurdish minority oppressive regime over the Sunni majority—a repeat of the Assadist scenario, but aligned with the Western bloc instead of the Russia/Iran axis.
It’s a curse that has been brought upon the modern Middle East. No Arab country is allowed to be democratic and peaceful, exercising true self-determination, because of Israel.
Of course the stupid Arabs cannot… you attitude is disgusting. But we don’t need Arab democracy. A reasonably civilized behavior and attempts to rebuild Syria would suffice. Democracy can wait, even though we think it is nice. Also other nations not meddling would help. Maybe we could focus on that instead of the shortcomings of the Syrians?
Yes; the course brought to the Middle East by the Western invasion of 1918.
Just, how shall Syria become a sovereign country and establish its army - if this is bombed out by the Israelis already before it's establishment? And if that bombardment is making sure that Israelis can continue bombing Syria as, when, and where they like?
And it's also, actually, stressing a number of crucial lessons for Ukraine.
1.) If 'you' make yourself overdependent on 'allies from abroad/foreign protection', you end up like Assad.
2.) If 'you' make yourself overdependent on multiple different allies from abroad, and especially if you let them disunite you with all of their 'offers for help' and other scams: you also end like the Syrian insurgency of 2011-2018.
3.) If you disarm yourself, you end up like Syria since 8 December 2024...
But also: stick together no matter what, remove old farts from power and command, re-form your armed forces - and you can win even if qualitatively and quantitatively inferior.
I view Islamism and jihadism as a product of intergroup dynamics. Yes, anti-Zionism and even antisemitism are in the DNA of Islamism and jihadism, but this ideology grew in the early to mid-20th century, during a time when Zionism, along with Western imperialism and colonialism that supported it, directly impacted the welfare of the Arab Muslim population. Intergroup hostility between Muslims and Jews became a core part of how the ideology was formulated, justified, and gained traction among Muslims. It’s not about some "century-old hatred against Jews" or "roots in Quranic verses or Prophet Muhammad’s actions." It can essentially be explained through sociology—just like any other intergroup conflict we see around the globe.
From what I understand jihadism's rise is rooted in a number of developments in 1960-70s:
1. The failure of secular pseudo socialist states (Egypt, Syria, Iraq etc) to provide adequately for their people and develop into "modern" states BUT also their failure to defeat Israelis.
2. The rise of oil funded fundamentalist states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. They use their wealth to spread hardcore fundamentalist Islam across the world.
Remember back in the 1950-60s, the most prominent muslim countries were also secular and pseudo-socialist (Egypt, Syria, Indonesia, Iraq). Now they are the fundamentalist petro-states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar).
3. The west including Israel and USA supporting fundamentalism as a counter to socialist aligned secular Arabs (Syria, Egypt, Iraq etc but also PLO). After all Hamas was supported by Israel in its early days as a counter to secular PLO and Osama Bin Ladin was supported by CIA.
4. The final piece of the puzzle is mass immigration of muslims to the west starting in 1960s. They were encountered with a culture they viewed as alien and perverse, whilst westerners viewed practicing muslims as a threat and primitive. The culture clash was never resolved and has instead got worse as more muslims move to the west.
Then I will add some modern factors:
5. The rise of the internet, cheap communications and cheap travel.
These:
a. Make it easier to disseminate fundamentalist ideology to unhappy people.
b. Make it easier for people to stay in close contact with old culture, instead of being forced to integrate/assimilate into new cultures.
c. Make it easier to coordinate terrorist activities.
6. The growing reliance of west of middle east oil and gas. This gives the fundamentalists Saudis etc considerable leeway. Remember most 9-11 hijackers were Saudis and US intelligence openly talked about Saudis supporting terrorism.
Yet KSA was given a free pass for this in 9-11 as was Pakistan. Now the west even supports Saudi atrocities in Yemen and occasionally assists funding/supporting Islamists (eg against Gaddafhi but also in Syria where CIA sourced weapons for Saudis et al to give to Islamists like Al Nusra Front.
KSA etc are also exempt from corruption investigations etc.
7. Western deregulation and apathy/too much tolerance.
West has removed nearly all rules pertaining to financial and corporate governance. This has allowed Chinese, Russians but also fundamentalist Muslims to make massive inroads in west in terms of economic power.
Eg GGC invests $3.4 billion in UK every year and Saudis have stakes in companies like BP and British Telecom. (And I will add Chinese own MG, Volvo, SAAB and Indians Range Rover and Jaguar)
Western publics don't care who owns their suppliers or that those suppliers engage in abhorrent, unethical and at times murderous practices.
I think some of your points are spot on, while others could use a bit more nuance.
KSA's relationship with Islamic terrorism is quite complex. They may have cynically used groups like Al Nusra during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War, as you mentioned. However, Bin Laden and Al Qaeda emerged largely out of dissatisfaction with KSA’s policies, particularly their accommodation of the US, especially after the Gulf War. Also, as far as I know, the authoritative academic source on this topic suggests there’s no concrete evidence of direct CIA support for Bin Laden during the Afghan war (see Hegghammer, 2020, The Caravan).
Finally, modern KSA, with its economic diversification and investment-driven policies, has a lot to lose from the rise of stronger jihadist groups. I’d argue that KSA’s symbiotic relationship with Islamism/jihadism began to wane after the Gulf War and effectively ended with MBS’s rise to power. (To be clear, I’m making a distinction here between Islamism/jihadism and Wahhabism. Wahhabism, as an ideology, emphasizes absolute loyalty to state authority and vehemently opposes MB-style Islamist activism or jihadist militancy.)
Bin Laden actually emerged in 1980s when Saudis were funding and supporting Afghan mujahideen against Soviets. He was involved in operations there (and probably had at least support from KSA itself or Pakistiani ISI).
We will never know the truth as nearly all of this information is under lock and key. But it is known CIA, KSA and ISI supported fundamentalists including some who became Taliban or terrorists.
Saudi Arabia went full fundamentalist following 1979 Siege of Grand Mosque in Mecca. Even though this siege was conducted by Islamists, the KSA decided the best way to stop Islamist dissidents was to go even further fundamentalist and give the ulama and religious police even more power.
Wahhabism itself only supports state power if the state operates according to its religious edicts. The insurgents who took over the Grand Mosque included religious students who had studied under prominent Saudi clerics.
KSA is still one of the main supporters of madrassas where so much indoctrination occurs. Saudi support of terrorism isn't done by state intelligence services but rather by "individuals" - princes, business people etc, most of whom have major connections in goverment. Private Saudi donations were a major source of funds for ISIL/ISIS (though KSA clamped down once America decided ISIL/ISIS were an enemy).
I have read of KSA's attempts at economic diversification, but this is not hindered by KSA's extreme policies. The west, the Chinese and anyone else with money just don't care about this. West eagerly deals with KSA despite people regularly being beheaded in "Chop Chop Square" in Riyadh for everything from sedition and terrorism to witchcraft and adultery.
The Germans occasionally pretend to have morals but quickly cave in when they realise they will miss out on economic opportunities.
This is probably the west's biggest modern weakness - we no longer have any values and are viewed as hypocrites by rest of world. Little wonder most third world states are still happy to deal with Russia,
It should never become a sovereign country. It shall become a failed state like Palestine next to the only democratic beacon in the region. A second one would confuse too much.
Do you think there is a size/capacity of the Syrian national army that would be acceptable from an Israeli perspective?
For example, do you think the Iraqi national army - which seems essentially defunct after the US invasion and would not pose any tangible geopolitical threat to any neighboring states - would be a good reference here?
Really? Was it Israels fault that Iraq was a bloody Baathist dictatorship like Syria? Or that Saudi is run by a fucked up version of Sharia? Or that Egypt, when allowed to vote voted for the Brotherhood? Seems like maybe years of Communist and then Islamist influence are the problem?
Both Baathist and Muslim Brotherhood ideologies were heavily shaped by their opposition to Zionism, which they saw as an existential threat—Baathism to pan-Arab identity, and the Brotherhood to pan-Islamic identity.
The Baathists’ policies, like taking anti-Western stances during the Cold War, aligning with the Eastern bloc, and leaning toward economic systems that opposed Western-backed capitalism, were heavily influenced by their opposition to Israel, which they viewed as a Western-backed imperialist project planted in the Arab heartland.
For the Muslim Brotherhood, their shift toward more militant forms—Abdullah Azzam, the godfather of modern global jihad, was a Palestinian—and the rise of radical offshoots like Hizb ut-Tahrir—founded by another Palestinian, Taqiuddin al-Nabhani—came from their struggle against secular Arab regimes and later Western governments, often seen as either unwilling or too weak to stand up to Israel.
As for Saudi Arabia, their vigorous promotion of Wahhabism initially served as a counter to the secular, pan-Arab reformism championed by Nasser (whose legitimacy was bolstered by his political victory over Israel in the Suez Crisis). Only after 1979, did Wahhabism become a tool to counter the spread of the Shia Islamic revolution from Iran—another movement that also drew legitimacy from its anti-Zionism.
It's also worth noting the distinction between Muslim Brotherhood-oriented Haraki Salafism and Wahhabism. The latter has always been unapologetically loyal to the state and its policies. Saudi Arabia expelled Haraki Salafists in the 1990s after they opposed the U.S. military presence on Saudi soil during the Gulf War (a conflict in which Saddam attempted to gain legitimacy by highlighting the West's double standards on Israel’s occupation of Palestine). In a way, Saudi’s "fucked up version of Sharia" served as a convenient alternative to all the competing ideologies—secular pan-Arabism, Baathism, the Brotherhood, Haraki Salafism, and even Shia Revolution—all of which were anti-Zionist at their core and inherently anti-status quo.
So yeah, pretty much every political crisis in the Middle East is tied to Israel.
Blaming it all on Israel is a bit of a stretch. Plenty of Western nations and corporations use the same playbook as Israel, many for longer than Israel has existed. Still, the game is the same.
"..it is invading only now, when it’s clear that the Assadist mass-murderers are going to be replaced by a unifying- and a government free of foreign influence."
Or maybe because, in a Realpolitik sense, there's finally zero risk of treading on Putin's toes.
The quote from the Iranian speaker of the Majlis is interesting. I've noticed Iranian messaging on Assad's fall that is less conspiratorial and cynical than Russia's. It's a very interesting possibility that some changing of the guards (no pun) in the IRGC led to the decision to let Assad fall.
Still, the Iranian influencer/professor/propagandist Marandi makes the claim that Assad's fall will paint the de-escalation faction in Iran around Pezeshkian into a corner. That's, of course, incoherent if you believe Iranian democracy or pluralism counts for nothing. There aren't many countries in the region where the public /can exercise even a rhetorical say/ about foreign policy at the ballot box though. (Actually existing ones, not the notional populist republic of post-Assad Syria.)
Israel is rapidly alienating the last sincere constituency it had in the West, foolish neoconservative liberal internationalists who thought that all the slaughter "the West" has been doing for Israel's sake was justified anyway by the "white man's burden to "civilize the Muslims." Assad's fall was the first thing that looked like a win for these idiots - no the US didn't bring down Assad, but it was a long held aim and logistic priority - only for the euphoria in the news cycle to be ruined by more of Netanyahu's violence.
Why avery time a country go for betters times, like ukranie,syria or some in LA.
The bastards in any powerfull country, or tropical islan, destroy that future! This is very very sad. And i have reasons for not be empatic, but this hit me hard, i even give me space for Hope. Now, i return to" black omen thinkin"
"Israel is rapidly alienating the last sincere constituency it had in the West" - really? At least here in Germany, the sentiment in the political circles is "Israel can do no wrong, and if they do, we have to turn a blind eye because of Holocaust"... And in the USA, I really don't see how it can lose any kind of influence, even after years and years of atrocities...
...and while we're on Germany: this is going so far, that non-Jewish journalists in Germany are declaring themselves for 'Jews', and banning public activity of genuine Jewish journalists, artists and other activists critical of Israel.
Indeed: these are declared for 'Gefährder' and can easily find themselves prosecuted by authorities for 'supporting terrorism'... 🙄
...perhaps I'm not going to experience that in the time of my life, but: I can't wait for the moment when they all switch to, 'but, we didn't know' - exactly like back in 1945....
Yep, only 70 years later, it is a bit harder to "not know" - maybe the excuse will be "but, my facebook / X / whatever news stream buried me in cat videos so I had no way of knowing". People will always find ways to excuse their blind eyes, I guess.
Germany is a slightly special case. In the Anglo- countries where the war on terror was more heavily sold and there is less of a sense of historical guilt about WW2, the dogma has very much been that Israel is our little democratic neo- crusader fortress. Very much, ironically, like an inverted version of the Chomskyite view common among Trotskyists that Israel is "America's attack dog." A strange kind of attack dog which is redundant as an attack dog and has never actually obeyed a command.
"... the dogma has very much been that Israel is our little democratic neo- crusader fortress. "
Israel a crusader fortress? The historical record does not look so good for Israel then. The Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem lasted something less than 200 years. Without being too literal with respect to numbers, if Israel is a kingdom within a sea of opponents then its days are numbered. Perhaps something less than 200 years might apply. Then again the big danger involves nuclear weapons. Israel will not go down without a BIG FIGHT that just might leave everybody glowing in the dark!
Absolutely. Historical Israel has a rather weak record of on-the-ground state-building.
Seymour Hersh claims the Israeli term for their last ditch WMD doctrine's "The Samson Option." The term has sort of passed into the lexicon to imply that those ICBMs are not just pointed at Tehran.
Good name for it! The cynic in me would rather hope if in "that event" they would exercise instead "The Masada Option." I actually hope neither occurs.
If you search YouTube for "walking in Tehran" or any other large Iranian city, you'll see that maybe 5-10% of the woman are without headscarves. Compare to say, long time Western ally Saudi Arabia, where they also don't have elections.
I "can't possibly" think why Iran is singled out for criticism.
Among of the destroyed stuff in Mazze AB were Gazelles equipped with AS.12s ! Whats the purpose of this configuration ? I have always thought of AS.12 as an anti-ship missile.
Maybe consider leaking some of the details from the upcoming book Lebanon war 4 in an article : ) we have been waiting for long time ( because pudding&co who is keeping you busy with Ukraine )
The AS.12 was a follow-up to AS.10 and AS.11 - all of which were, originally, ATGMs. Of course, the AS.12 also had a secondary anti-ship capability, and was deployed as such by AB.212ASWs of the Iranian Naval Aviation against Iraq, in the 1980s, for example.
Syria's Gazelles were compatible with both, the old AS.12, and the (back in the 1970s) new HOTs. Seems, they've expended so many of the former, that over the lat 10 years, they had to re-arm most of their Gazelles with AS.12s.
There is no isreali support for "Israel from the Euphrates to the Nile" appart from some fringe groups.
Why would Isreal invade Syria? They don't have the manpower for an occupation. They might want to permanently size the golan hights and get a new buffer zone east of that or use that land for an land for peace deal. But all those news about "Isreal moving towads Damascus" are fake. I'd guess that they are also moving north along the border with Libanon to control Lebanese-Syrian border crossings to prevent Hezbolla from moving in either directon. Especially as long a new Syrian sate isn't established.
Also the white helmets released an statement that they coudn't find any hidden underground cells where people are still held. There was some missinformation online which led to many relatives rushing to the prison.
You must have missed a couple of major episodes if not entire seasons. Including Israel formal annexion of the occupied Golan and even the US formal recognition of this illegal annexion.
Would help you figure out the General Staff of the IDF is obsessed with obtaining 'defensive borders' already since armistices of 1949. So much so, it's not 'just planning' aggressive wars against Israel's neighbours, but also training IDF officers in administering and maintaining occupation of enemy territories.
If you then add Green's Taking Sides, you can learn that the US Joint Chiefs of Staff knew, and reported to Truman, already in March 1948, that Israel is aiming not only to take all of Palestine, but also expand its borders to all the neighbouring countries, draw the USA into the resulting conflict, and establish itself in possession of economic- and military hegemony in the Middle East - you've got the complete picture.
Instead, you are trying to explain away with absolutely irrelevant facts, like 'there's no support'... It simply doesn't matter, because the doctrine and strategy are, literally, written in stone of the very fundament of the state of Israel: the core of its armed forces. And that for almost 76 years now.
...or, are you going to explain me now, that 'military "experts" do not matter at war' - like so many Germans are trying to do, for the last few days?
Are the Israeli troops on the Syrian territory, yes or no? Are they advancing ever deeper into Syria, yes or no?
Since both answers are positive, your explanation about 'fake' news is as valid as your ignorance of Israel's doctrine and strategy.
And re. White Helmets: sigh... they've released that statement yesterday, late in the afternoon.
To everybody's huge surprise, the Earth didn't stop turning around its own axis, nor orbiting the Sun ever since, and so it happened that things continued developing and during the night they've found the entrance to the underground facility.
The "news" of israel tanks close to damascus is now 12 hours old and there are still no pictures or video. Reuters got the city of Qatana mixed up with the district of Qatana.
Lets hope that the corruption trial of Nethanjahu is successful.
I'd appreciate if someone could give me a link to the updated Sednaya situation. I was unable to find anything.
Those fringe groups are actually calling the shots (literally) in Israel these days. At present I cannot see any evidence of it not being in control. Fringe or not.
It's crazy how easy it was Israel-AIPAC to buy (or blackmail or threaten) the US Government. Why isn't every Government doing this? It seems easy enough
Generally I have a belief, more in terms of feeling, that the real scope of Saudi's intel activities around the world is much less known, or at least under-reported
Maybe it is just my fantasy. But it does not make sense, country with half the GDP of russia, more then Iran and Israel combined, has no strategic vision or activities in the region? Having Russia as competitor and China and US as clients, Israel as enemy. And nothing to hear about their foreign activities? I also do not think they are stupid or benevolent. But I do not know much there at all.
It does not have a 'national' strategic vision: but, along its own laws, it does need none. Everything in Saudi Arabia is actually the ownership of the ruler from the Saud family.
That's why he has first sacked all the other of billionaires from his family, then took away their money (partially also to finance the war in Yemen), and then launched the 'Saudi Vision 2030', which is emphasising AI, digital tools and similar.
Correspondingly, he's investing heavily into such technologies - and the mass of these 'happen' to be owned by such like Musk and Bezos... (by sheer accident, of course).
...in turn, all the domestic and international critique of Saudi Arabia all but ceased... (is a distilled accident, of course)...
Israel is a state in the USA. That is the only analysis that actually can explain US behavior. And after all, why not? I guess the distance from Washington DC is shorter to Israel than Hawai.
I think Israel takes precedence over many US states. Some of these have failing infrastructure and inadequate natural disaster mitigation, but they don’t matter if the population is mostly poor Black or Latino people.
In the last two days I've been getting a lot of neck pain again because I have to shake my head so often because of all these zobie idiots and assholes who control our fate and can't think further than the tip of their own nose.
Israel is attacking Syria, no one cares, no one asks why. Europe, UN, aid organizations, even China (who have often wanted to play mediator in recent years) ....no one says a word. The world seems neutered when it comes to Bibi and his adventures. Mind blow
I really didn't expect it, but for me Bibi is now a bigger criminal than Trump, Khamenei, Kim or Winnie the Pooh in Beijing could be, just as an example, because these mentioned threaten a lot and then do little. Bibi gives a big fuck about everything and runs amok and the majority in Israel joins in.
I have always found the country of Israel and the people to be very nice and they are still nice, but the country is constantly creating new enemies around itself, and that cannot last forever.
If any president of the USA (who isn't an idiot) comes up with the idea of reducing support for Israel, problems will arise. Israel has a bloated military relative to its economy, the country incurs enormous debts every year, and the economy relies heavily on developing technology for the military. This can't go on forever...I hope.
I find it insane that Israel is creating an enemy in Syria? Syria is and always will be an enemy. The insurgents who are now taking control will declare Israel as enemy as soon as they think they have any shred of military might to act beyond their borders. Israel is insuring that day is as far in the future as possible.
Ironically, I agree. If a new Syrian government were to base its policy on popular will, it should take a hostile stance toward Israel.
Why? Because Israel is a settler-colonial state built on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, and no popular will among Sunni Arabs would allow this to go unchallenged.
France is and always will be our enemy… Spain is… Germany is.. Poland… these are statements leading down to yet another war in the future. And Israel is now fueling new wars in the future. And don’t even have peace now. At the moment Israel is fighting Hamas still, with a ceasefire with Hizbollah (clock ticking down) and then uses the opportunity to start another war with Syria? If we ignore the morals of this it seems to me like a classic case over overstretching. How long can Israel manage that? So far they are winning but have not managed to transform the wins into something that gives them long term gains. They only continue to get more enemies. Instead of trying something new. Like making friends. Syria doesn’t have to be the eternal enemy of Israel. But bombing and attacking them ensures they will continue. And Israel will have to repeat. Sooner or later Israel is likely to loose. I think they should try to make friends here. After all they already have two wars.
Erdogan has now confirmed it himself. He wants a united Syria (how nice and unselfish of him) and therefore wants to "crush" the PKK/YPG and Co.
Once again I feel sorry for the Kurds, they are also run by idiots and now have to live with the consequences again. With the fall of Assad, the already distant dream of an independent Kurdish state is becoming even more distant.
It isn’t easy to avoid being a puppet when you’re small and weak. Sometimes the only thing you can do is to choose which puppet master to hold your strings. And of course choose wrongly. Like here.
If you are from a political agenda point that crazy (some form of left libertarian communism), you are rather happy to be supported by anyone. Such an ideology you only get through with oppression and hence you are quite receptacle for becoming a puppet.
We can agree that the Kurds have a hard time. As a lot of people in Syria and the whole Middle East. But a question that may be naive/stupid or something. Why is that independent state so bleeding important? Couldn’t a reasonable regime in Syria that doesn’t bomb you, force their beliefs on you, make you a secondary citizen etc be acceptable? Do you absolutely need your own central bank, new passport, laws and regulations and so on and so? And yes this question is actually relevant for the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. If treated fairly could we have a one state solution there? (Not the treat fairly bit, it is quite important. And I am afraid more difficult than the nationhood…)
The same could be said for any colony, province, ethnic group etc? I mean if Russia managed to take over Ukraine in 3 days and then ruled with compassion to improve Ukrainian living standards would that be Ok?
I am from Yugoslavia and abhor the break up of Yugoslavia. I don't think it was an improvement for many (even those in Croatia where I am from). A social democratic Yugoslavia integrated in Europe would have been much better for the people than a bunch of small corrupt shitholes that emerged in 1990s.
But what to do when you have nationalist and more critically ambitious opportunistic arseholes on both sides?
Those ambitious opportunistic arseholes tend to become our leaders too.
And finally many common people have delusions about who or what they are and gladly drink the propaganda Cool Aid. Hence those religious, ethnic and tribal identities means that they struggle to live under someone else and they want their own homeland, free of interference from foreigners.
Yes, the same can be said for a lot of colony, province etc trying to develop their own nation. Unfortunately you usually have nationalistic assholes on both sides.
OMG. I don't know why I'm surprised by anything anymore. But FFS.
Thank you Tom!
Israel is buying themselves 20 years of peace, for the small cost of 200 years of enmity.
Sadly: true. And it's just as bad as it looks like.
Although I strongly suspect that Israel had a 'hunting permit' for Hezbollah and Hamas, issued by the Arab League: I don't think that this land-grab is covered in that too.
The unexpected, landslide-like fall of Assad left a big, numb, unattended hole there and they are just the first ones for a slice of the pie. And with that they'll not just destabilize any possible new Syria, but as others will also line up this may destabilize the whole area.
Ps.: just as an example - at this point Turkey (NATO member) may too feel free to intervene: they won't be the first. And likely not the last either...
Türkye is already intervenning - in form of sending the SNA to overrun the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-controlled Manbij.
Meanwhile, its armed forces are shelling Ayn al-Arab (better known in the West by its Kurdish name: Kobane). Guess, an assault is a matter of days.
BTW, the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF has shot down an US-operated MQ-9 Reaper UCAV...
I meant, by directly sending troops and occupying Syrian land.
...Yep. At this point 'matter of days' would not be a surprise. Not at all.
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Hilarious that for years, Russia could not trigger any meaningful 'WWIII' kind of ripples: but now some rogue 'our boy' possibly brought us to the brink of it :/
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Somebody should stop this, fast.
Like my mother’s old Jewish girlfriend Estelle used to say, “You have to know when enough is too much”.
Well, you never know if this US Reaper drone wasn't working for the SNA and hence could become hostile at some point.
You can never be paranoid enough when in support of the US! A non-fly zone over your territory and your troops get bombed to shreds. A wrongly interpreted ambassador quote and you become from supported buddy to Hitler and your country is bombed into pieces with a following embargo.
“The hands of Putin or China?” I think not. I appreciate your knowledge of facts on the ground , tactics weaponry etc. But I think some of your geopolitical speculations are speculative
If you know better: I'm all ear.
For that, though, you would have to offer me much more than your doubts.
If you think his analysis of the ground is fine, but his interpretation of the geopolitical situation is wrong then explain where the error is. It may be a fair criticism. Moving from «micro analysis» to macro (geopolitical) is a difficult excersise. But explain what is wrong and why. Concretely. Doubt will not get you much credit.
Pasionate article, that is difficult not to agree on 100% of it.
Which part is factually incorrect?
He completely agrees.
All very nice, however... the Daraa area has been notoriously unruly even during these past years, no matter how Assad had quote re-estabished unquote control. Seeing Israel's less than stellar performance in occupying Lebanon in the past, or quote pacifying unquote Gaza this year, just how much they are likely to pull off anything useful here? Or does the whole country run on crazed imperialism by now?
That 'unruly' Dera'a Province was controlled by insurgency from its liberation in 2012, until the Jordanians cancelled all the support for the local insurgency, in 2017.
Result?
They were left without options but to accept the Russian 'reconciliation'. Thousands were subsequently disappeared by the Assadists.
And for why are the Israelis doing this: sooner or later, their 'peaceful settlers' are going to arrive, and then, if anybody comes to the idea to demand their removal, it's going to be the same 'we can't remove so many settlers from the area' - like always.
That was my point, kind of.
I don't doubt Ben-Gvir and his ilk would be happy to colonize the place, they will colonize anything. However, settlers would first need the IDF to both oversee it and not notice what they themselves are doing. This is not the West Bank or Gaza, an enclosure or something that has been occupied for decades and abandoned by their original governments, left in perpetual limbo - this province has managed to defy Assad's terror machine with his capital nearby, even without foreign support, and now that the opportunity had presented itself, they have taken him down. They have won, and know it, making them much less likely to submit to another round of oppression. Israel can try, of course, but it seems like a very long shot to me - and if the IDF walks into an Iraq-style trap, their whole incursion will backfire badly.
But it's true that an Israeli or any other foreign occupation is beyond the last thing Syria needs now. I wonder if the new government would be ready to do what the Assads never did and recognize Israel, strictly behind its pre-1967 borders. Just to give Bibi another unpleasant dilemma when his radicals would urge him forward, but even his buffer zone is no longer justified.
So, F-35 is not such wunderwaffe if Israel is afraid of L-39?
That attack to Qamishli was a favor to Erdogan. And maybe not only these, because it make SNA less weaker to HTS. Turkish nationalists have considered northern Syria as part of Turkie always, so Erdogan aim is to have stable Syria but keep occupation of it's northern parts. Plus, Turkish defense sector can make good bucks selling arms to the new government (maybe for the gulf states money).
How?
Sorry, but what you explain here is making absolutely no sense.
The control of Qamishli was shared, approx 50:50 between the Assadists and the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF. There was the Russian presence, too. About a week ago (see my earlier reports), the Assadists and the Russians packed their stuff and run away. Ever since, it's controlled by the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF.
The SNA is nowhere within 100km from there, and the HTS is a member of the CMO/SSG coalition, and this is presently busy trying to establish itself in power and stabilising the situation all over Syria. The closest the CMO troops are to Qamishli are northern approaches to Dayr az-Zawr (city).
So, how should the Israeli bombardment of Qamishli be a favour to Erdogan?
The SNA can't go and capture anything there. And the destruction of the local airport and ammo depots is counterproductive even for Israeli interest - which would be: support for the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF, so to further a renewed disintegration of Syria.
With other words: this is just another piece of typical Israeli BS. Bombing, killing and conquering because they can, and because there are going to be no consequences.
Yep, exactly, less ammo to SDF, easier SNA offensive and destruction of SDF. Israel and Turkie have collaborated in Azerbaijan and other things already, they can do favors to each other.
Stocks of Turkish cement/construction companies surge already https://x.com/taylanbilgic/status/1866016780063289818 The next one will be defense sector.
No surprise: back in 2013-2015, Türkye-controlled 'insurgents' looted the Syrian cement industry (which was insufficient for the development of the country already back in the 2000s) and sold all its parts they could - to Türkye...
Israel won’t allow Syria to maintain a sovereign national army unless it normalizes relations, or the country ends up under a Kurdish minority oppressive regime over the Sunni majority—a repeat of the Assadist scenario, but aligned with the Western bloc instead of the Russia/Iran axis.
It’s a curse that has been brought upon the modern Middle East. No Arab country is allowed to be democratic and peaceful, exercising true self-determination, because of Israel.
Of course the stupid Arabs cannot… you attitude is disgusting. But we don’t need Arab democracy. A reasonably civilized behavior and attempts to rebuild Syria would suffice. Democracy can wait, even though we think it is nice. Also other nations not meddling would help. Maybe we could focus on that instead of the shortcomings of the Syrians?
I couldn't tell whether he was sarcastic or serious hence I didn't reply to him.
He's serious enough that I'm going to block him now. Got fed up of his 'truths'.
Thank you!
Yes; the course brought to the Middle East by the Western invasion of 1918.
Just, how shall Syria become a sovereign country and establish its army - if this is bombed out by the Israelis already before it's establishment? And if that bombardment is making sure that Israelis can continue bombing Syria as, when, and where they like?
The more one discovers and understands about this part of the world the easier it gets to understand their jihad against the west ...
Tragically - yes.
And it's also, actually, stressing a number of crucial lessons for Ukraine.
1.) If 'you' make yourself overdependent on 'allies from abroad/foreign protection', you end up like Assad.
2.) If 'you' make yourself overdependent on multiple different allies from abroad, and especially if you let them disunite you with all of their 'offers for help' and other scams: you also end like the Syrian insurgency of 2011-2018.
3.) If you disarm yourself, you end up like Syria since 8 December 2024...
But also: stick together no matter what, remove old farts from power and command, re-form your armed forces - and you can win even if qualitatively and quantitatively inferior.
I view Islamism and jihadism as a product of intergroup dynamics. Yes, anti-Zionism and even antisemitism are in the DNA of Islamism and jihadism, but this ideology grew in the early to mid-20th century, during a time when Zionism, along with Western imperialism and colonialism that supported it, directly impacted the welfare of the Arab Muslim population. Intergroup hostility between Muslims and Jews became a core part of how the ideology was formulated, justified, and gained traction among Muslims. It’s not about some "century-old hatred against Jews" or "roots in Quranic verses or Prophet Muhammad’s actions." It can essentially be explained through sociology—just like any other intergroup conflict we see around the globe.
From what I understand jihadism's rise is rooted in a number of developments in 1960-70s:
1. The failure of secular pseudo socialist states (Egypt, Syria, Iraq etc) to provide adequately for their people and develop into "modern" states BUT also their failure to defeat Israelis.
2. The rise of oil funded fundamentalist states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. They use their wealth to spread hardcore fundamentalist Islam across the world.
Remember back in the 1950-60s, the most prominent muslim countries were also secular and pseudo-socialist (Egypt, Syria, Indonesia, Iraq). Now they are the fundamentalist petro-states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar).
3. The west including Israel and USA supporting fundamentalism as a counter to socialist aligned secular Arabs (Syria, Egypt, Iraq etc but also PLO). After all Hamas was supported by Israel in its early days as a counter to secular PLO and Osama Bin Ladin was supported by CIA.
4. The final piece of the puzzle is mass immigration of muslims to the west starting in 1960s. They were encountered with a culture they viewed as alien and perverse, whilst westerners viewed practicing muslims as a threat and primitive. The culture clash was never resolved and has instead got worse as more muslims move to the west.
Then I will add some modern factors:
5. The rise of the internet, cheap communications and cheap travel.
These:
a. Make it easier to disseminate fundamentalist ideology to unhappy people.
b. Make it easier for people to stay in close contact with old culture, instead of being forced to integrate/assimilate into new cultures.
c. Make it easier to coordinate terrorist activities.
6. The growing reliance of west of middle east oil and gas. This gives the fundamentalists Saudis etc considerable leeway. Remember most 9-11 hijackers were Saudis and US intelligence openly talked about Saudis supporting terrorism.
Yet KSA was given a free pass for this in 9-11 as was Pakistan. Now the west even supports Saudi atrocities in Yemen and occasionally assists funding/supporting Islamists (eg against Gaddafhi but also in Syria where CIA sourced weapons for Saudis et al to give to Islamists like Al Nusra Front.
KSA etc are also exempt from corruption investigations etc.
7. Western deregulation and apathy/too much tolerance.
West has removed nearly all rules pertaining to financial and corporate governance. This has allowed Chinese, Russians but also fundamentalist Muslims to make massive inroads in west in terms of economic power.
Eg GGC invests $3.4 billion in UK every year and Saudis have stakes in companies like BP and British Telecom. (And I will add Chinese own MG, Volvo, SAAB and Indians Range Rover and Jaguar)
Western publics don't care who owns their suppliers or that those suppliers engage in abhorrent, unethical and at times murderous practices.
I think some of your points are spot on, while others could use a bit more nuance.
KSA's relationship with Islamic terrorism is quite complex. They may have cynically used groups like Al Nusra during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War, as you mentioned. However, Bin Laden and Al Qaeda emerged largely out of dissatisfaction with KSA’s policies, particularly their accommodation of the US, especially after the Gulf War. Also, as far as I know, the authoritative academic source on this topic suggests there’s no concrete evidence of direct CIA support for Bin Laden during the Afghan war (see Hegghammer, 2020, The Caravan).
Finally, modern KSA, with its economic diversification and investment-driven policies, has a lot to lose from the rise of stronger jihadist groups. I’d argue that KSA’s symbiotic relationship with Islamism/jihadism began to wane after the Gulf War and effectively ended with MBS’s rise to power. (To be clear, I’m making a distinction here between Islamism/jihadism and Wahhabism. Wahhabism, as an ideology, emphasizes absolute loyalty to state authority and vehemently opposes MB-style Islamist activism or jihadist militancy.)
You raise some good points.
Bin Laden actually emerged in 1980s when Saudis were funding and supporting Afghan mujahideen against Soviets. He was involved in operations there (and probably had at least support from KSA itself or Pakistiani ISI).
We will never know the truth as nearly all of this information is under lock and key. But it is known CIA, KSA and ISI supported fundamentalists including some who became Taliban or terrorists.
Saudi Arabia went full fundamentalist following 1979 Siege of Grand Mosque in Mecca. Even though this siege was conducted by Islamists, the KSA decided the best way to stop Islamist dissidents was to go even further fundamentalist and give the ulama and religious police even more power.
Wahhabism itself only supports state power if the state operates according to its religious edicts. The insurgents who took over the Grand Mosque included religious students who had studied under prominent Saudi clerics.
KSA is still one of the main supporters of madrassas where so much indoctrination occurs. Saudi support of terrorism isn't done by state intelligence services but rather by "individuals" - princes, business people etc, most of whom have major connections in goverment. Private Saudi donations were a major source of funds for ISIL/ISIS (though KSA clamped down once America decided ISIL/ISIS were an enemy).
I have read of KSA's attempts at economic diversification, but this is not hindered by KSA's extreme policies. The west, the Chinese and anyone else with money just don't care about this. West eagerly deals with KSA despite people regularly being beheaded in "Chop Chop Square" in Riyadh for everything from sedition and terrorism to witchcraft and adultery.
The Germans occasionally pretend to have morals but quickly cave in when they realise they will miss out on economic opportunities.
This is probably the west's biggest modern weakness - we no longer have any values and are viewed as hypocrites by rest of world. Little wonder most third world states are still happy to deal with Russia,
Western publics, live, at most in a Huxley book, the media is the chain.
I will totally agree with that. Turns out Brave New World and also Orwell's 1984 were manuals on how to control societies, not warnings.
It should never become a sovereign country. It shall become a failed state like Palestine next to the only democratic beacon in the region. A second one would confuse too much.
Do you think there is a size/capacity of the Syrian national army that would be acceptable from an Israeli perspective?
For example, do you think the Iraqi national army - which seems essentially defunct after the US invasion and would not pose any tangible geopolitical threat to any neighboring states - would be a good reference here?
What thinking about Lorents plants for after ottoman empire colapses? Thanks in advance cooperpedia
Really? Was it Israels fault that Iraq was a bloody Baathist dictatorship like Syria? Or that Saudi is run by a fucked up version of Sharia? Or that Egypt, when allowed to vote voted for the Brotherhood? Seems like maybe years of Communist and then Islamist influence are the problem?
Both Baathist and Muslim Brotherhood ideologies were heavily shaped by their opposition to Zionism, which they saw as an existential threat—Baathism to pan-Arab identity, and the Brotherhood to pan-Islamic identity.
The Baathists’ policies, like taking anti-Western stances during the Cold War, aligning with the Eastern bloc, and leaning toward economic systems that opposed Western-backed capitalism, were heavily influenced by their opposition to Israel, which they viewed as a Western-backed imperialist project planted in the Arab heartland.
For the Muslim Brotherhood, their shift toward more militant forms—Abdullah Azzam, the godfather of modern global jihad, was a Palestinian—and the rise of radical offshoots like Hizb ut-Tahrir—founded by another Palestinian, Taqiuddin al-Nabhani—came from their struggle against secular Arab regimes and later Western governments, often seen as either unwilling or too weak to stand up to Israel.
As for Saudi Arabia, their vigorous promotion of Wahhabism initially served as a counter to the secular, pan-Arab reformism championed by Nasser (whose legitimacy was bolstered by his political victory over Israel in the Suez Crisis). Only after 1979, did Wahhabism become a tool to counter the spread of the Shia Islamic revolution from Iran—another movement that also drew legitimacy from its anti-Zionism.
It's also worth noting the distinction between Muslim Brotherhood-oriented Haraki Salafism and Wahhabism. The latter has always been unapologetically loyal to the state and its policies. Saudi Arabia expelled Haraki Salafists in the 1990s after they opposed the U.S. military presence on Saudi soil during the Gulf War (a conflict in which Saddam attempted to gain legitimacy by highlighting the West's double standards on Israel’s occupation of Palestine). In a way, Saudi’s "fucked up version of Sharia" served as a convenient alternative to all the competing ideologies—secular pan-Arabism, Baathism, the Brotherhood, Haraki Salafism, and even Shia Revolution—all of which were anti-Zionist at their core and inherently anti-status quo.
So yeah, pretty much every political crisis in the Middle East is tied to Israel.
Blaming it all on Israel is a bit of a stretch. Plenty of Western nations and corporations use the same playbook as Israel, many for longer than Israel has existed. Still, the game is the same.
Israel as a country has only existed since 1948, but the Zionist project has already been a major force since the early 20th century.
Plenty of Western nations and corporations have created Israel and are supporting its ethnic cleansing, mass-murder, and now genocide.
...any similarities are a pure accident, of course.
"..it is invading only now, when it’s clear that the Assadist mass-murderers are going to be replaced by a unifying- and a government free of foreign influence."
Or maybe because, in a Realpolitik sense, there's finally zero risk of treading on Putin's toes.
The quote from the Iranian speaker of the Majlis is interesting. I've noticed Iranian messaging on Assad's fall that is less conspiratorial and cynical than Russia's. It's a very interesting possibility that some changing of the guards (no pun) in the IRGC led to the decision to let Assad fall.
Still, the Iranian influencer/professor/propagandist Marandi makes the claim that Assad's fall will paint the de-escalation faction in Iran around Pezeshkian into a corner. That's, of course, incoherent if you believe Iranian democracy or pluralism counts for nothing. There aren't many countries in the region where the public /can exercise even a rhetorical say/ about foreign policy at the ballot box though. (Actually existing ones, not the notional populist republic of post-Assad Syria.)
Israel is rapidly alienating the last sincere constituency it had in the West, foolish neoconservative liberal internationalists who thought that all the slaughter "the West" has been doing for Israel's sake was justified anyway by the "white man's burden to "civilize the Muslims." Assad's fall was the first thing that looked like a win for these idiots - no the US didn't bring down Assad, but it was a long held aim and logistic priority - only for the euphoria in the news cycle to be ruined by more of Netanyahu's violence.
Of course there is a fundamental change within the IRGC.
The 'old guard' was shot away by Netanyahu's onslaught. The 'young gard' took over and is far more pragmatic. Indeed, it's techno- and meriocratic.
....and much more extremised and sophisticated than ever before.
They're not going to squander another US$ 200 billion to 'save Private Bashar', but focus on expanding their and Hezbollah's capabilities.
Why avery time a country go for betters times, like ukranie,syria or some in LA.
The bastards in any powerfull country, or tropical islan, destroy that future! This is very very sad. And i have reasons for not be empatic, but this hit me hard, i even give me space for Hope. Now, i return to" black omen thinkin"
Boca de sapo, like in my country some people say.
"Israel is rapidly alienating the last sincere constituency it had in the West" - really? At least here in Germany, the sentiment in the political circles is "Israel can do no wrong, and if they do, we have to turn a blind eye because of Holocaust"... And in the USA, I really don't see how it can lose any kind of influence, even after years and years of atrocities...
...and while we're on Germany: this is going so far, that non-Jewish journalists in Germany are declaring themselves for 'Jews', and banning public activity of genuine Jewish journalists, artists and other activists critical of Israel.
Indeed: these are declared for 'Gefährder' and can easily find themselves prosecuted by authorities for 'supporting terrorism'... 🙄
...perhaps I'm not going to experience that in the time of my life, but: I can't wait for the moment when they all switch to, 'but, we didn't know' - exactly like back in 1945....
Yep, only 70 years later, it is a bit harder to "not know" - maybe the excuse will be "but, my facebook / X / whatever news stream buried me in cat videos so I had no way of knowing". People will always find ways to excuse their blind eyes, I guess.
Germans have an interesting way to try to atone for their country's historical crime of genocide. It seems to lack a certain degree of universality.
Germany is a slightly special case. In the Anglo- countries where the war on terror was more heavily sold and there is less of a sense of historical guilt about WW2, the dogma has very much been that Israel is our little democratic neo- crusader fortress. Very much, ironically, like an inverted version of the Chomskyite view common among Trotskyists that Israel is "America's attack dog." A strange kind of attack dog which is redundant as an attack dog and has never actually obeyed a command.
"... the dogma has very much been that Israel is our little democratic neo- crusader fortress. "
Israel a crusader fortress? The historical record does not look so good for Israel then. The Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem lasted something less than 200 years. Without being too literal with respect to numbers, if Israel is a kingdom within a sea of opponents then its days are numbered. Perhaps something less than 200 years might apply. Then again the big danger involves nuclear weapons. Israel will not go down without a BIG FIGHT that just might leave everybody glowing in the dark!
Absolutely. Historical Israel has a rather weak record of on-the-ground state-building.
Seymour Hersh claims the Israeli term for their last ditch WMD doctrine's "The Samson Option." The term has sort of passed into the lexicon to imply that those ICBMs are not just pointed at Tehran.
Good name for it! The cynic in me would rather hope if in "that event" they would exercise instead "The Masada Option." I actually hope neither occurs.
I'd sooner say that due to the way the American lobby system works, USA is Israel's guard dog.
No matter what Israel does, USA supports it.
Same goes for Saudi Arabia. In essence the USA's middle east policy is subcontracted to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
I would caution the New Guard that this is not the time to let the Religious Police crack down on women’s attire.
If you search YouTube for "walking in Tehran" or any other large Iranian city, you'll see that maybe 5-10% of the woman are without headscarves. Compare to say, long time Western ally Saudi Arabia, where they also don't have elections.
I "can't possibly" think why Iran is singled out for criticism.
Among of the destroyed stuff in Mazze AB were Gazelles equipped with AS.12s ! Whats the purpose of this configuration ? I have always thought of AS.12 as an anti-ship missile.
Maybe consider leaking some of the details from the upcoming book Lebanon war 4 in an article : ) we have been waiting for long time ( because pudding&co who is keeping you busy with Ukraine )
Good eye!
The AS.12 was a follow-up to AS.10 and AS.11 - all of which were, originally, ATGMs. Of course, the AS.12 also had a secondary anti-ship capability, and was deployed as such by AB.212ASWs of the Iranian Naval Aviation against Iraq, in the 1980s, for example.
Syria's Gazelles were compatible with both, the old AS.12, and the (back in the 1970s) new HOTs. Seems, they've expended so many of the former, that over the lat 10 years, they had to re-arm most of their Gazelles with AS.12s.
There is no isreali support for "Israel from the Euphrates to the Nile" appart from some fringe groups.
Why would Isreal invade Syria? They don't have the manpower for an occupation. They might want to permanently size the golan hights and get a new buffer zone east of that or use that land for an land for peace deal. But all those news about "Isreal moving towads Damascus" are fake. I'd guess that they are also moving north along the border with Libanon to control Lebanese-Syrian border crossings to prevent Hezbolla from moving in either directon. Especially as long a new Syrian sate isn't established.
Also the white helmets released an statement that they coudn't find any hidden underground cells where people are still held. There was some missinformation online which led to many relatives rushing to the prison.
You must have missed a couple of major episodes if not entire seasons. Including Israel formal annexion of the occupied Golan and even the US formal recognition of this illegal annexion.
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-recognizing-golan-heights-part-state-israel/
That was 5 years ago.
Why don't you read top Israeli historians?
Have listed them here. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/annual-post-on-why-do-i-think-about
Take Guy Laron's The Six-Days War.
Would help you figure out the General Staff of the IDF is obsessed with obtaining 'defensive borders' already since armistices of 1949. So much so, it's not 'just planning' aggressive wars against Israel's neighbours, but also training IDF officers in administering and maintaining occupation of enemy territories.
If you then add Green's Taking Sides, you can learn that the US Joint Chiefs of Staff knew, and reported to Truman, already in March 1948, that Israel is aiming not only to take all of Palestine, but also expand its borders to all the neighbouring countries, draw the USA into the resulting conflict, and establish itself in possession of economic- and military hegemony in the Middle East - you've got the complete picture.
Instead, you are trying to explain away with absolutely irrelevant facts, like 'there's no support'... It simply doesn't matter, because the doctrine and strategy are, literally, written in stone of the very fundament of the state of Israel: the core of its armed forces. And that for almost 76 years now.
...or, are you going to explain me now, that 'military "experts" do not matter at war' - like so many Germans are trying to do, for the last few days?
Are the Israeli troops on the Syrian territory, yes or no? Are they advancing ever deeper into Syria, yes or no?
Since both answers are positive, your explanation about 'fake' news is as valid as your ignorance of Israel's doctrine and strategy.
And re. White Helmets: sigh... they've released that statement yesterday, late in the afternoon.
To everybody's huge surprise, the Earth didn't stop turning around its own axis, nor orbiting the Sun ever since, and so it happened that things continued developing and during the night they've found the entrance to the underground facility.
Yes that's incredible, and a blasphemy, too...
The "news" of israel tanks close to damascus is now 12 hours old and there are still no pictures or video. Reuters got the city of Qatana mixed up with the district of Qatana.
Lets hope that the corruption trial of Nethanjahu is successful.
I'd appreciate if someone could give me a link to the updated Sednaya situation. I was unable to find anything.
In effect Israel is like a little Russia, needing defensive buffer zones that are never big enough.
Those fringe groups are actually calling the shots (literally) in Israel these days. At present I cannot see any evidence of it not being in control. Fringe or not.
Exactly. The right wing fundamentalist hardliners are now in charge and given demographics will end up being the majority in Israel by 2100.
It's crazy how easy it was Israel-AIPAC to buy (or blackmail or threaten) the US Government. Why isn't every Government doing this? It seems easy enough
Well, the Saudis are trying already since the 1980s. That's what helps such like Musk and Bezos, though...
Generally I have a belief, more in terms of feeling, that the real scope of Saudi's intel activities around the world is much less known, or at least under-reported
AFAIK, their principal intel activities are related to investments in the Carlyle Group - and combating any kind of internal opposition, of course.
Maybe it is just my fantasy. But it does not make sense, country with half the GDP of russia, more then Iran and Israel combined, has no strategic vision or activities in the region? Having Russia as competitor and China and US as clients, Israel as enemy. And nothing to hear about their foreign activities? I also do not think they are stupid or benevolent. But I do not know much there at all.
It does not have a 'national' strategic vision: but, along its own laws, it does need none. Everything in Saudi Arabia is actually the ownership of the ruler from the Saud family.
Correspondingly, MbS has his 'Saudi Vision 2030' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Vision_2030).
That's why he has first sacked all the other of billionaires from his family, then took away their money (partially also to finance the war in Yemen), and then launched the 'Saudi Vision 2030', which is emphasising AI, digital tools and similar.
Correspondingly, he's investing heavily into such technologies - and the mass of these 'happen' to be owned by such like Musk and Bezos... (by sheer accident, of course).
...in turn, all the domestic and international critique of Saudi Arabia all but ceased... (is a distilled accident, of course)...
Israel is a state in the USA. That is the only analysis that actually can explain US behavior. And after all, why not? I guess the distance from Washington DC is shorter to Israel than Hawai.
I think Israel takes precedence over many US states. Some of these have failing infrastructure and inadequate natural disaster mitigation, but they don’t matter if the population is mostly poor Black or Latino people.
The most important state?
I'd sooner say USA is an Israeli puppet state. Israel says "jump", USA says "how high?" Doesn't matter who is in charge either.
Same same. Israel is the state calling the shots in USA.
In this world, good news doesn't last long.
In the last two days I've been getting a lot of neck pain again because I have to shake my head so often because of all these zobie idiots and assholes who control our fate and can't think further than the tip of their own nose.
Israel is attacking Syria, no one cares, no one asks why. Europe, UN, aid organizations, even China (who have often wanted to play mediator in recent years) ....no one says a word. The world seems neutered when it comes to Bibi and his adventures. Mind blow
I really didn't expect it, but for me Bibi is now a bigger criminal than Trump, Khamenei, Kim or Winnie the Pooh in Beijing could be, just as an example, because these mentioned threaten a lot and then do little. Bibi gives a big fuck about everything and runs amok and the majority in Israel joins in.
I have always found the country of Israel and the people to be very nice and they are still nice, but the country is constantly creating new enemies around itself, and that cannot last forever.
If any president of the USA (who isn't an idiot) comes up with the idea of reducing support for Israel, problems will arise. Israel has a bloated military relative to its economy, the country incurs enormous debts every year, and the economy relies heavily on developing technology for the military. This can't go on forever...I hope.
I find it insane that Israel is creating an enemy in Syria? Syria is and always will be an enemy. The insurgents who are now taking control will declare Israel as enemy as soon as they think they have any shred of military might to act beyond their borders. Israel is insuring that day is as far in the future as possible.
"Syria is and always will be an enemy."
Ironically, I agree. If a new Syrian government were to base its policy on popular will, it should take a hostile stance toward Israel.
Why? Because Israel is a settler-colonial state built on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, and no popular will among Sunni Arabs would allow this to go unchallenged.
France is and always will be our enemy… Spain is… Germany is.. Poland… these are statements leading down to yet another war in the future. And Israel is now fueling new wars in the future. And don’t even have peace now. At the moment Israel is fighting Hamas still, with a ceasefire with Hizbollah (clock ticking down) and then uses the opportunity to start another war with Syria? If we ignore the morals of this it seems to me like a classic case over overstretching. How long can Israel manage that? So far they are winning but have not managed to transform the wins into something that gives them long term gains. They only continue to get more enemies. Instead of trying something new. Like making friends. Syria doesn’t have to be the eternal enemy of Israel. But bombing and attacking them ensures they will continue. And Israel will have to repeat. Sooner or later Israel is likely to loose. I think they should try to make friends here. After all they already have two wars.
Erdogan has now confirmed it himself. He wants a united Syria (how nice and unselfish of him) and therefore wants to "crush" the PKK/YPG and Co.
Once again I feel sorry for the Kurds, they are also run by idiots and now have to live with the consequences again. With the fall of Assad, the already distant dream of an independent Kurdish state is becoming even more distant.
Well, if you let yourself be played as a puppet in an imperial power game ...
It isn’t easy to avoid being a puppet when you’re small and weak. Sometimes the only thing you can do is to choose which puppet master to hold your strings. And of course choose wrongly. Like here.
If you are from a political agenda point that crazy (some form of left libertarian communism), you are rather happy to be supported by anyone. Such an ideology you only get through with oppression and hence you are quite receptacle for becoming a puppet.
That too. Not mutually exclusive those two.
We can agree that the Kurds have a hard time. As a lot of people in Syria and the whole Middle East. But a question that may be naive/stupid or something. Why is that independent state so bleeding important? Couldn’t a reasonable regime in Syria that doesn’t bomb you, force their beliefs on you, make you a secondary citizen etc be acceptable? Do you absolutely need your own central bank, new passport, laws and regulations and so on and so? And yes this question is actually relevant for the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. If treated fairly could we have a one state solution there? (Not the treat fairly bit, it is quite important. And I am afraid more difficult than the nationhood…)
The same could be said for any colony, province, ethnic group etc? I mean if Russia managed to take over Ukraine in 3 days and then ruled with compassion to improve Ukrainian living standards would that be Ok?
I am from Yugoslavia and abhor the break up of Yugoslavia. I don't think it was an improvement for many (even those in Croatia where I am from). A social democratic Yugoslavia integrated in Europe would have been much better for the people than a bunch of small corrupt shitholes that emerged in 1990s.
But what to do when you have nationalist and more critically ambitious opportunistic arseholes on both sides?
Those ambitious opportunistic arseholes tend to become our leaders too.
And finally many common people have delusions about who or what they are and gladly drink the propaganda Cool Aid. Hence those religious, ethnic and tribal identities means that they struggle to live under someone else and they want their own homeland, free of interference from foreigners.
Yes, the same can be said for a lot of colony, province etc trying to develop their own nation. Unfortunately you usually have nationalistic assholes on both sides.