Erm... I think it's better not to comment on anything about Syria - for anybody unable to distinguish between Daesh ('ISIS'), al-Qaeda, and the HTS (not to talk about other of Syrian insurgents).
BTW, since today, it's the SGU that's providing Aleppo with electricity. And, according to the locals, it's doing that better than the Assadists.
I do know Syria and the region and what you are writing about shows a bias towards those medievals. Let’s not forget those they chipped off heads of journalists.
I don't know of anyone who understands the situation in Syria as well as Tom. (Maybe a German diplomat I met on holiday who worked in the Embassy in Damascus but of course, as a diplomat, he doesn't share his analysis).
I find Tom has considerable respect for his readers' intelligence. He doesn't oversimplify, his articles require careful reading, which he assumes we are up to, and his little games of wit keep us on our toes.
They have the ability to provide electricity to all of Aleppo - which is not 'second' biggest city in Syria, as misreported by all of the media, but the biggest city in the country.
...and the IRGC (or Assadists, or Russians) were also so kind to leave behind a user's manual for that Pantsyr (and where there is one, there are always few others) - and that in English and in Arabic.
My question is what proportion of IRGC forces are local Shi'as and what proportion actual Iranians? With Russia pinned down trying to change as many "facts on the ground "as it can in Ukraine before Trump comes in, will Iran have to start committing regular forces? If so that could be highly unpopular and a way, at least in Netanyahu and his minions in Congress's minds, to start an overthrow of the Iranian regime.
The video clip of the captured Kurdish fighters appears to be of female Kurdish Pishmarga. I guess they are going to be given as bounty to these savages, out for the blood of the Christians, Yezidis and non-Sunnis.
By the way, what happened to Jenner al Nusra, the ISIS folks? Did they rebrand?
One group of savages killing another group. Aided and abetted by the Turks.
As said above: anybody unable to distinguish between Daesh ('ISIS'), al-Qaeda, and the HTS (not to talk about other of Syrian insurgents) - is best served if not commenting about this war at all.
Did you take a look at the tunnels discovered by rebels ? Those looks suspiciously identical to the pre-built structures US coalition dug for the PKK in Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain when Americans troops & leader prepared and indirectly fought battle against NATO ally Turkey.
Yes the US had the gall the claim they were dismantling the tunnels while they were the one building them. Then they wonder why do Turks now hate them ...
And for the record while US generals bragged to the US press they had devised and trained the PKK for a perfect "defence in depth". While it took merely hours to Ahrar al-Sharqiya (a group of angry displaced locals) raiding parties to push 10km deep and wreak havoc to the PKK rear to the point of scary even coalition guys. Because apparently, nobody in the US armed forces remembered you are supposed to at least cover an entire frontline with some troops.
And theses West Point genius are now supposed to teach Ukrainians how to win ... No wonder the 2023 counter offensive and the Krinky operation went so badly.
Is like back during the Russo-Japanese War, when all 'the West' was laughing about 'silly machine guns', and 'those short-sighted Asians', and was 1000%-sure noble Western armies would defeat these with ease.
....10 years later, nobody could recall the lesson...
110 years later, nothing changed: 'the West' remains high-nosed...
I am interested in the grand chess being played out. Yesterday, the FT had an article on how young and old Ukrainians are deserving and going AWOL. And how fast the Ukraine front is collapsing.
Ona another front, Israel delivered massive blows to the Hamas and Hezbollah folks.
And how the UAE, Saudi and the Egyptians called Assad to express support.
In all this, the Turks being Turks have colluded to break the Astana Accords.
The ISIS terrorists, I like the old name (like Coke Classic) are going to be overstretched.
Being what they are, a bunch of savages, like their Al Qaeda and Taliban cousins, they will revert to mass rapes of their boys and girls, captured.
This is a shit show and will play out till Donald comes and no one no knows what will happen.
But these savage so-called insurgents are savage mercs and funded by the Turks, though I doubt Israel is going to be too displeased.
The bottom line is that the connective kinetic action in both Ukraine and Syria.
Remarkable that the Saudis would now give Assad a pat on the back isn't it? It looks like they've really crossed the Rubicon to the Iran/China side. But why wouldn't they, I guess, when their proxies are out of the Syrian "game" and China is the major customer for Persian Gulf oil.
1. Trump threatening the BRICS for their planned phasing in of an alternate currency to the $
2. Saudis and the UAE engaged in an intense rivalry (tribal, really) over :
2.1. FDI
2.2. AI
3.3. “Fuck Yemen and foreign adventures; let’s go and build more hotels”
3. The Chinese still deliberating what Trump is all about; plus how we are going to grow again a la 8% per annum
4. The poor royally screwed Europeans contemplating life (industry) after cheap Russian gas and Ukraine’s collapse
5. The Dems having a major family “intervention” over who lost the election!
6. Kamala Harris on bing drinking per a U.S. tabloid
7. Putin keeping us (America) if the nuclear “non-nuclear) tungsten-equipped missiles are really what they he says they are
8. The Iranians, Hamas, Hezbollah trying to gather the pieces
9. Israel internalizing the fact that it is a house broken notwithstanding its very very major tactical yet Pyrrhic victories (no resolution of Palestine, the Primerose path to another Rhodesia and Apartheid South Africa
10. India is actually sitting pretty tight
11. UK being spurned over and over again by a dismissive America (like a woman who gets sleeps w a gigolo expecting to marry the Prince Charming)
12. Net, net, I love it all. The “Trump Trade” even overturns the Ronald Reagan one. I am old enough to remember.
Do you understand that since 2015, Assadists, IRGC, and the Russians ethnically cleansed most of Dera'a, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Idlib - and that they've, literally, herded 6,5 million of Syrians into western Idlib and north-western Aleppo?
About 3,5 million have managed it over the border to Türkye before Ankara stopped the rest: 'the rest' then remained languishing in 'IDP'-camps in north-western Aleppo and western Idlib.
So, when you're talking about 'demographic pressure'... really, that's absurd. Even if before the war Aleppo used to be the biggest city in Syria (especially by its population),
a) the revolution erupted in Dera'a and Homs, not in Aleppo, while
b) this 'demogratphic pressure' was created by attacks with chemical weapons and intentional bombardment and shelling of civilians.
I don't know who I want to win, only the forelorn hope that the Assad and all the absolute butchers enabling him lose.
Question, Tom: since "unlikely bedfellows" is basically the anthem of the Middle East, how do you read the possibility of a Turkish-Israeli rapprochement vis-a-vis Syria?
Actually, this is a showdown between Erdogan and Putin. Back in 2019-2020, Putin had Erdogan by his nose (with help of some vodka). Now Erdogan has Putin by his guts. Primarily thanks to Qatari money and lots of courage by Syrians. I only wonder if Erdogan might stand his man this time - because now he (read: Syrians) are going to stand the rage of not only Putin, but also the IRGC, the UAE, Saudis, and Egypt.
And here we are, Sauidis, Turkey, UAE, ... they all have own axes to grind and do not care much about wellbeing of people in Syria and these are main actors to blame for the Syrian revolution fail.
What shall Turkey do? Continue financing 3,5 million Syrians inside Turkey, and feeding another 3,5 million in north-western Syria, too - and that because the West is on-off paying it for the first half of the people in question?
What shell Saudi do? Continue expressing support to Assad and buying cheap Russian oil? And that's because USA is pumping too much oil harming Saudi business so the sheikhs would be forced to sell their 99th Rolls-Royce (and keep just 98 of them only)?
Well, not Turkey's fault the West lost control over the monsters it has created in the Middle East: on the contrary, the British, French, and the Russians were doing their best for decades to destroy the Ottoman Empire and assume power - so also over such like Saud's Wahhabists. And then the Americans did everything in their powers to convert Saudi Arabia into a super power.
Erdogan can do whatever the hell he likes in Syria and Ukraine with the Russians dependent on Turkey for sanctioned material, etc. And thanks again Tom for all of this.
This is going to end badly. The advance will be held up, the front will stabilise and then Russia will spare a few of its resources to bomb the enlarged area under rebel control week after week, killing even more civilians. That's a few less resources dedicated to destruction in Ukraine. but not much.
I doubt Donnie and his cabinet nominees know where Syria is.
It is a good time to make life difficult for the US, Donnie's first three months will be chaotic.
The current forecast for the Congress House majority is GOP 220 vs Dem 215.
As the super high-IQ Donnie has promoted three GOP House reps out of the House, for at least the first three months of 2025, it will be GOP 217 (220 - 3) vs. Dem 215.
Consequently, the GOP cannot lose even one vote, as a tie in the House (216 vs. 216) is a loss, and there is no process to resolve ties.
Two of the 2025 House reps voted to impeach Donnie back in 2019 and retained their seats this time despite Donnie campaigning against them, so they are unlikely to support any extreme Trump initiatives. Then there is the usual mixture of Budget hawks, defense hawks and Ukraine fans, and not fans.
This Congress the GOP has proven they are incapable of governing, they have passed the fewest bills in a Congress session since it started almost 300 years ago.
After all of Donnie's talk of isolationism and America First I was surprised he threatened BRICS with sanctions.
Anway he is pushing on an open door as the last BRICS meeting showed no interest in an alternative currency to the $
I assume he knows this and is just showing his internal audience he is a "strong man".
I hope the rebels can use the air defence systems they captured and will locate them where they will be effective.
Trump was very fortunate the first 4 years because nothing happened, other than covid, which he screwed up royally. This time he's in a different world that will demand a lot more than state dinners.
Yep. He was leading the successful regime counter attack on Aleppo outskirt on the 28th November evening with his super extra turbo elite 25th specially special force division.
Hi Tom, thanks for te update . .
Do these insurgents have the ability to operate something like Pantsyr? Or they have needed help from other interested parties?
From ISIS to insurgents.
I find the entire episode quite suspect. Timing and all. But one thing is glaring: all the activity occurring before DT occupies the White Giuse.
Erratum. The White House.
Erm... I think it's better not to comment on anything about Syria - for anybody unable to distinguish between Daesh ('ISIS'), al-Qaeda, and the HTS (not to talk about other of Syrian insurgents).
BTW, since today, it's the SGU that's providing Aleppo with electricity. And, according to the locals, it's doing that better than the Assadists.
Right! Let’s not comment. Let’s continue to drink Diet Coke!
I do know Syria and the region and what you are writing about shows a bias towards those medievals. Let’s not forget those they chipped off heads of journalists.
No, you don't. And you're also not curious to learn at all: only to babble about 'ISIS'.
BTW, the department for discussions of 'Mossad/al-Qaeda/CIA-conspiracies' is at the end of the corridor. Should be 7th or 8th door from here.
Fine. Then you need not reading this blog.
I don't know of anyone who understands the situation in Syria as well as Tom. (Maybe a German diplomat I met on holiday who worked in the Embassy in Damascus but of course, as a diplomat, he doesn't share his analysis).
Great! ISIS providing electricity. Probably they are using human fat for power generation of those plants.
I am leaving this Substack as it is really “sub”. Have some respect for the intelligence of your dwindling audience.
I find Tom has considerable respect for his readers' intelligence. He doesn't oversimplify, his articles require careful reading, which he assumes we are up to, and his little games of wit keep us on our toes.
Be a bit more subtle in your polemics and you might have more success.
What is SGU?
Syrian Government of Unity. The civic authority in western Idlib (by now, meanwhile in the process of assuming control over Aleppo, too).
They have the ability to provide electricity to all of Aleppo - which is not 'second' biggest city in Syria, as misreported by all of the media, but the biggest city in the country.
...and the IRGC (or Assadists, or Russians) were also so kind to leave behind a user's manual for that Pantsyr (and where there is one, there are always few others) - and that in English and in Arabic.
Nicely explained! I wonder if Assad is in personal danger at this point...
Not at all.
Nuts! LOL
Thanks Tom, and social thanks for the maps.
Is difficult to get the proper names in Ukraine, now we have this front again.
My question is what proportion of IRGC forces are local Shi'as and what proportion actual Iranians? With Russia pinned down trying to change as many "facts on the ground "as it can in Ukraine before Trump comes in, will Iran have to start committing regular forces? If so that could be highly unpopular and a way, at least in Netanyahu and his minions in Congress's minds, to start an overthrow of the Iranian regime.
Out of 10 IRGC's combatants in Syria, 'at least 9' are either Palestinians, or Afghan Hazara, or Syrian ShI'a.
Thanks. I had never thought about Hazara at all.
The video clip of the captured Kurdish fighters appears to be of female Kurdish Pishmarga. I guess they are going to be given as bounty to these savages, out for the blood of the Christians, Yezidis and non-Sunnis.
By the way, what happened to Jenner al Nusra, the ISIS folks? Did they rebrand?
One group of savages killing another group. Aided and abetted by the Turks.
As said above: anybody unable to distinguish between Daesh ('ISIS'), al-Qaeda, and the HTS (not to talk about other of Syrian insurgents) - is best served if not commenting about this war at all.
At f***ing last Tal Rifaat is liberated
....just looted so hard by the PKK/YPG that not only windows: even the roofs are away...
Alas no surprise here.
Did you take a look at the tunnels discovered by rebels ? Those looks suspiciously identical to the pre-built structures US coalition dug for the PKK in Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain when Americans troops & leader prepared and indirectly fought battle against NATO ally Turkey.
https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1863289828797825525
https://x.com/MENAReport0/status/1863304275939487905
For reference :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1P-4gVJZgI
https://x.com/SOJTF_LEVANT/status/1174013855233642496
https://x.com/SOJTF_LEVANT/status/1180027858275704832
Yes the US had the gall the claim they were dismantling the tunnels while they were the one building them. Then they wonder why do Turks now hate them ...
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/15/syrian-kurdish-fighters-mount-counterattack-turkish-sdf-network-of-tunnels/
And for the record while US generals bragged to the US press they had devised and trained the PKK for a perfect "defence in depth". While it took merely hours to Ahrar al-Sharqiya (a group of angry displaced locals) raiding parties to push 10km deep and wreak havoc to the PKK rear to the point of scary even coalition guys. Because apparently, nobody in the US armed forces remembered you are supposed to at least cover an entire frontline with some troops.
And theses West Point genius are now supposed to teach Ukrainians how to win ... No wonder the 2023 counter offensive and the Krinky operation went so badly.
Is like back during the Russo-Japanese War, when all 'the West' was laughing about 'silly machine guns', and 'those short-sighted Asians', and was 1000%-sure noble Western armies would defeat these with ease.
....10 years later, nobody could recall the lesson...
110 years later, nothing changed: 'the West' remains high-nosed...
I am interested in the grand chess being played out. Yesterday, the FT had an article on how young and old Ukrainians are deserving and going AWOL. And how fast the Ukraine front is collapsing.
Ona another front, Israel delivered massive blows to the Hamas and Hezbollah folks.
And how the UAE, Saudi and the Egyptians called Assad to express support.
In all this, the Turks being Turks have colluded to break the Astana Accords.
The ISIS terrorists, I like the old name (like Coke Classic) are going to be overstretched.
Being what they are, a bunch of savages, like their Al Qaeda and Taliban cousins, they will revert to mass rapes of their boys and girls, captured.
This is a shit show and will play out till Donald comes and no one no knows what will happen.
But these savage so-called insurgents are savage mercs and funded by the Turks, though I doubt Israel is going to be too displeased.
The bottom line is that the connective kinetic action in both Ukraine and Syria.
Remarkable that the Saudis would now give Assad a pat on the back isn't it? It looks like they've really crossed the Rubicon to the Iran/China side. But why wouldn't they, I guess, when their proxies are out of the Syrian "game" and China is the major customer for Persian Gulf oil.
Joshua,
The situation is quite fluid:
1. Trump threatening the BRICS for their planned phasing in of an alternate currency to the $
2. Saudis and the UAE engaged in an intense rivalry (tribal, really) over :
2.1. FDI
2.2. AI
3.3. “Fuck Yemen and foreign adventures; let’s go and build more hotels”
3. The Chinese still deliberating what Trump is all about; plus how we are going to grow again a la 8% per annum
4. The poor royally screwed Europeans contemplating life (industry) after cheap Russian gas and Ukraine’s collapse
5. The Dems having a major family “intervention” over who lost the election!
6. Kamala Harris on bing drinking per a U.S. tabloid
7. Putin keeping us (America) if the nuclear “non-nuclear) tungsten-equipped missiles are really what they he says they are
8. The Iranians, Hamas, Hezbollah trying to gather the pieces
9. Israel internalizing the fact that it is a house broken notwithstanding its very very major tactical yet Pyrrhic victories (no resolution of Palestine, the Primerose path to another Rhodesia and Apartheid South Africa
10. India is actually sitting pretty tight
11. UK being spurned over and over again by a dismissive America (like a woman who gets sleeps w a gigolo expecting to marry the Prince Charming)
12. Net, net, I love it all. The “Trump Trade” even overturns the Ronald Reagan one. I am old enough to remember.
Is this what you mean by showing respect for readers' intelligence?
I would say, it’s a grand musical chair, with the tunes changing from Disco to Techno to classics and Country. “Rinse, repeat!”
You're not interested in this war at all: only in spreading your prejudice and hatred.
No one human is interested in war! I infer that you are not human!
Why there is war only in the regions where demographic pressure is high (the only exception being Ukraine)? The answer is evident.
Sigh.. is that a serious question?
Of course. Do you deny that populations are often governed by instincts and prone to fight for new territories if they are too numerous?
Do you understand that since 2015, Assadists, IRGC, and the Russians ethnically cleansed most of Dera'a, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Idlib - and that they've, literally, herded 6,5 million of Syrians into western Idlib and north-western Aleppo?
About 3,5 million have managed it over the border to Türkye before Ankara stopped the rest: 'the rest' then remained languishing in 'IDP'-camps in north-western Aleppo and western Idlib.
So, when you're talking about 'demographic pressure'... really, that's absurd. Even if before the war Aleppo used to be the biggest city in Syria (especially by its population),
a) the revolution erupted in Dera'a and Homs, not in Aleppo, while
b) this 'demogratphic pressure' was created by attacks with chemical weapons and intentional bombardment and shelling of civilians.
https://substack.com/@mikehampton/note/c-79592048?r=7fhcc&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Among your many statements, this was the most sensible one: "I am leaving this Substack..."
But, unfortunately, turned out to be fake news too.
I don't know who I want to win, only the forelorn hope that the Assad and all the absolute butchers enabling him lose.
Question, Tom: since "unlikely bedfellows" is basically the anthem of the Middle East, how do you read the possibility of a Turkish-Israeli rapprochement vis-a-vis Syria?
At one time Turkey and Israel were very close.
Then Erdo decided he could do better by siding with the Arabs but they did not trust him his support of the Muslim Brotherhood was an abject failure
Actually, this is a showdown between Erdogan and Putin. Back in 2019-2020, Putin had Erdogan by his nose (with help of some vodka). Now Erdogan has Putin by his guts. Primarily thanks to Qatari money and lots of courage by Syrians. I only wonder if Erdogan might stand his man this time - because now he (read: Syrians) are going to stand the rage of not only Putin, but also the IRGC, the UAE, Saudis, and Egypt.
Thanks. What does "Stand his man" mean in this context?
And here we are, Sauidis, Turkey, UAE, ... they all have own axes to grind and do not care much about wellbeing of people in Syria and these are main actors to blame for the Syrian revolution fail.
What shall Turkey do? Continue financing 3,5 million Syrians inside Turkey, and feeding another 3,5 million in north-western Syria, too - and that because the West is on-off paying it for the first half of the people in question?
What shell Saudi do? Continue expressing support to Assad and buying cheap Russian oil? And that's because USA is pumping too much oil harming Saudi business so the sheikhs would be forced to sell their 99th Rolls-Royce (and keep just 98 of them only)?
Well, not Turkey's fault the West lost control over the monsters it has created in the Middle East: on the contrary, the British, French, and the Russians were doing their best for decades to destroy the Ottoman Empire and assume power - so also over such like Saud's Wahhabists. And then the Americans did everything in their powers to convert Saudi Arabia into a super power.
Blame West, that the hard wind blow,
Blame West, for the seeds that you don’t sow,
Blame West, when the truth's hard to find,
Blame West, never change your mind!
If I'm factually incorrect: correct me.
Otherwise, here a recommended read for you (and lots of others thinking that way):
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/last-ottoman-generation-and-the-making-of-the-modern-middle-east/D1BA6B8BE3C1EABFB48C648B0B3F7672
If you're seriously interested, you can also inform yourself from people in Aleppo, too:
https://www.facebook.com/MaRebelDWG
Erdogan can do whatever the hell he likes in Syria and Ukraine with the Russians dependent on Turkey for sanctioned material, etc. And thanks again Tom for all of this.
This is going to end badly. The advance will be held up, the front will stabilise and then Russia will spare a few of its resources to bomb the enlarged area under rebel control week after week, killing even more civilians. That's a few less resources dedicated to destruction in Ukraine. but not much.
That's my concern as well.
Excellent analysis, thank you
I doubt Donnie and his cabinet nominees know where Syria is.
It is a good time to make life difficult for the US, Donnie's first three months will be chaotic.
The current forecast for the Congress House majority is GOP 220 vs Dem 215.
As the super high-IQ Donnie has promoted three GOP House reps out of the House, for at least the first three months of 2025, it will be GOP 217 (220 - 3) vs. Dem 215.
Consequently, the GOP cannot lose even one vote, as a tie in the House (216 vs. 216) is a loss, and there is no process to resolve ties.
Two of the 2025 House reps voted to impeach Donnie back in 2019 and retained their seats this time despite Donnie campaigning against them, so they are unlikely to support any extreme Trump initiatives. Then there is the usual mixture of Budget hawks, defense hawks and Ukraine fans, and not fans.
This Congress the GOP has proven they are incapable of governing, they have passed the fewest bills in a Congress session since it started almost 300 years ago.
After all of Donnie's talk of isolationism and America First I was surprised he threatened BRICS with sanctions.
Anway he is pushing on an open door as the last BRICS meeting showed no interest in an alternative currency to the $
I assume he knows this and is just showing his internal audience he is a "strong man".
I hope the rebels can use the air defence systems they captured and will locate them where they will be effective.
Trump was very fortunate the first 4 years because nothing happened, other than covid, which he screwed up royally. This time he's in a different world that will demand a lot more than state dinners.
Is that gay commander of Tiger Force still around? I forgot his name.
If he is, I imagine he would lead the PR charge north of Hama.
General Sohail 'Botox' Hassan?
AFAIK, he was replaced as CO 25th Division about two years ago. Got some desk job.
...became too powerful for Bashar's taste...
Yep. He was leading the successful regime counter attack on Aleppo outskirt on the 28th November evening with his super extra turbo elite 25th specially special force division.
https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1862316515191648371
https://x.com/Abdurahmanhrk/status/1862468106376888686
Is that me or is the pink tiger running low on botox ? Cant afford it anymore ?
BTW, the Hawr Killis OR has officially launched its own, Operation Fredom Dawn/Fajr al-Hurrya.
Makes me curious if they might go after Manbij, as some say...
There are reports some Jaish al-Islam guys killed a notable HTS commander in Aleppo ...
I cant believe this is starting again
Damn... Hawr Killis really hasn't got its stupids under control: first that summary execution of POWs, now this...
Thanks Tom. Question: What is the level of cooperation between the disparate opposition forces and their armed formations?
The Fatah Mobin OR is working perfectly together. They're not controlled by Turkey, though.
Ahrar ash-Sham (Tel Rifaat area), and Hawr Killis OR (both Türkye-controlled): not so sure.