Now that you mention all the returning refugees, that suggests solving European "refugee crisis" was always possible by militarily defeating the shitty governments of the countries where refugees are coming from? Somehow this seems to never have been even considered in the years of hand-wringing on the topic. An actual solution to the humanitarian issue through strength -- apparently a thought-crime to almost everyone.
Syria is one source of the migrants. If Syrians can now go back to Syria, wonderful. We're less than 24 hours in though. 20 years of experience in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan where we defeated the shitty governments and created refugee crises speak to the opposite conclusion. And it seems like some neocons are (predictably) leveraging the 24 hours experience of regime change stabilizing Syria to suggest a domino-like falling of Iran's regime.
I'm only talking about it as a potential solution to put on the table. I don't see anyone capable of going through with it and not making a mess (because it was an excuse for something else in the first place).
If they are true, are the reports of Assadists withdrawing from northern Latakia potentially very good news? Does that make the coastal plain vulnerable and a final end to this disgusting regime possible?
And thanks for reminding us that Assad's Syria is a narco-state. Captagon does not get in the headlines very often. I checked on Wikipedia and some reports have the annual trade at $57 billion with Assad raking off 80% of that. That is three times the estimated annual income of the Mexican cartels. Maybe we need to look no further for an explanation of how he managed to fund his regime. Ironically, it has been reported (by British tabloids, so not the most reliable sources) that the attackers in the Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow this year had taken Captagon beforehand.
The only 'problem': the mass of that income from Captagon - ended in Asad's private pockets. He's one of the richest thugs on this planet (and the neighbourhood).
I always wonder what happens to those riches when these thugs die. Do the nice Swiss gentlemen keep it for themselves or do they make sure those bloody money are inherited as prescribed? It all goes somewhere.
Yep, even if the majority of the drug money ended up in the coffers of Assad and his entourage... Now that the infrastructure is in place, it will be very tempting of the new people in power to continue taking in those sweet sweet billions. Even the Taliban with their strict religious laws did nothing worthwhile to curb the drug industry.
Nazis mostly came down of meth after two years of war - it was a good booster but led to long periods of lethargy after wearing off, which is not good when you're doing attrition. The Japanese were much heavier users of the stuff as far as I know.
My source was Wikipedia. Though 5.7 billion does seem a more reasonable amount. 57 billion a year is a huge amount of money. If correct than Assad would be fantasticly wealthy. I don’t get the impression that he is.
Always a good idea to double-check your sources. Wikipedia does not get it right all the time (and never claims to). It was clearly a typo from whoever entered the figure. Double-checking was worth doing so this time, no? :)
$57 billion is a large sum well but within the range of similar drugs and their global markets. And the Assad's Syria was a nation state that used the Capatagon trade to finance their civil war. How else do you think they managed to survive for so long? The Captagon market is huge but little reported in the media outside the Middle East. Read up on it (beyond Wikipedia!) and you'll understand the size of it. The Assad's used the machinery of state to corner the bulk of Cap's production and distribution (80% of $57b) then creamed off the profits from that. So, yes, the Assads are fantastically wealthy from the profits of the Captagon trade. Family-run dictatorships are since they all loot their nations. But don't confuse the total estimate of the value of that drug's trade with the profits they will have made.
Dear Tom, thank you! I also in my heart hope for the people of Syria.
In terms of economics and all, I think the fight for Latakia would be recritical. And difficult to believe that it would be given up without the fight.
Any idea about relationships of the factions? Will Al-Jawlani have enough to settle the thing by force and negotiation? For having no single leader will not benefit Syrians at this stage.
What about international alliances? Will Qatar be willing to support the country beyond insurgents? Would Saudis want to interfere much more? What would be interests of Turkey, US, Iran, Israel? Do Syrians need new alliances like maybe Brits and French?
Anyway the special military operation for Damascus went well. That was a masterclass, declare the SMO start, when things are almost done.
I expect the CMO to let the Russians and the IRGC 'evacuate in peace' from Tartous and Latakia.
They might continue a 'cautious pursuit' of retreating Assadists, of course: the more terrain they secure, the better.
Beyond that: no idea.
As for relations between different factions... that's going to be a major issue in the coming weeks and months. Here it is going to be crucial to either disarm all the (de-facto) insurgent militias or integrate them into the CMO to create new, unified armed forces.
That alone would be a giant achievement - if for no other reason then to avoid the Libyan situation since 2012.
The developments were so fast! I woke up in the morning (6 am - GMT+6) and read all the updates for 1 hour or so. At that time I knew insurgents were entering Damascus and I thought they might face some resistance. I then moved to study for about an hour or so, and then opening facebook, I found people are rejoicing that Asad has fled (as per reuters)!
So there will be a new wave of Syrian refugees to Europe. I have a hunch that Poland and Hungary will be commanded to do their part to embrace "diversity and cultural enrichment."
Sounds like you're watching too much of the German and Austrian media.
This 'new wave of Syrian refugees' - is going to 'flee' to the UAE and Russia, not to the EU. Because the characters in question are Assadist henchmen and they know in the EU they're more likely to get arrested and prosecuted by the ICC, than living a funny life.
Yes, that's exactly the attitude I was referring to. Germans and Austrians seem annoyed that Poles and Hungarians get tons of aid but shirk the EU obligation to take in refugees. I assume you would know better than me if public and media sentiment would actually translate to political pressure.
As for Russia, granted, I have met *some* Syrian refugees here, but there are very few of them. If you're hoping that Russia is going to open their arms and take in millions of losers and give them free housing and welfare so they can smoke dope all day like they do in the EU - you're going to be in for a disappointment, sorry.
Can't speak for the UAE, but I suspect the attitude is similar.
The German and Austrian media - together with the large parts of the public - are living in their own fools paradise. One, where they are the victims of all the illegal immigration, and nobody in the EU has that kind of problem, but is only non-cooperative.
One, where their right-wing extremists are doing great by lying to the public that they are the solution: that they know how to deal with illegal immigrants, and can seriously do something against them (which is completely absurd, considering the scope of this problem and the fact, neither Germany, nor Austria, have any kind of control over the sources of the issue in question).
It is not only the media and the public, but the official line of our governments, that Syrian insurgents are 'Islamists' that 'toppled progressive' Assad. And that, of course, 'now there is going to be another wave of refugees from Syria'.
At the same time, they are ZIP LIP about all the Syrian refugees already returning to their homes, not to talk about those that are to follow.
It's the exactly the same self-deception like 'Israel is a happy end to the Holocaust', and thus we must support it with all our powers - or at least look away when it's orchestrating a genocide on Palestinians. The same lies about any kind of expression of solidarity with Palestinians = support of jihadist terrorism.
I'm already looking forward for the 'moment after', the rude awakening when the official explanation is going to be the same 'we did not know' like back in 1945.
Regarding Israel, I'm sure that you are right and "We did not know" will be the excuse. Which is amazing when Israelis literally boast about their crimes on every social media platform 24/7. Makes me lose even more faith in humanity.
Okay sure but that's kind of a self defeating argument. Why would a middle eastern guy want to go be a soldier or laborer in -40 weather when he could go to the EU, get welfare and not have to work at all?
My remark was ironic, but at the same time why did Indians, Bhutanese and others go to fight in Russia? It ended very badly for them but we will always find people willing to believe lies rather than face reality.
Well I don't want to generalize too much, because I do know Indian professionals in Moscow who seem quite successful, BUT the problem with Indians is they don't really have a niche here. They're too poorly educated to compete with Russia's homegrown university graduates or white collar professionals from other countries like Turkey. And for unskilled labor, Indians have to compete with immigrants from Kyrgystan and Tajikistan, who have special privileges in the Russian immigration code while Indians do not.
So I guess some Indians sign a military contract, where they can make a nice living digging trenches, but I guess they're too lazy for that either.
When I said "that Russia is going to open their arms and take in millions of losers" I meant a hypothetical onslaught refugees from middle eastern conflicts in general, not Syria alone. Sorry for being unclear.
You're right that people on refugees status in Russia get *some* benefits and can apply for aid from private humanitarian groups, but it's a joke compared to what they can get in western countries. The general attitude here is you have to work.
Honestly, I was thinking about the refugee crisis in Tùrkiye and how many years would it take for the current situation to have a meaningful impact.
One one hand, there are very successful and industrious Syrian people integrated into the Türkish economy, on the other hand, there is a strong right-wing, nationalist "send them back" movement across all political parties and population sections...
Indeed. For me, one of most fascinating things about the Syrians is how industrious they are.
Here in the EU, one can find comparisons only within the ranks of the organised crime (where, actually, this begins already with our banks and insurances, not to talk about corrupt politicians). As 'people', we - here in Austria, for example - are helpless and lazy in comparison.
For the last 60 years, Syria was an isolated and conservative society, where any kind of private initiative was squashed by Assadist oppression and corruption. Now, with the return of so many refugees who have seen what's going on outside the country... well, I think, or at least hope: they're going to be 'limitless'.
Today is a great day !We are happy and going to celebrate!
It might take a lot of time for things to get better but it can’t get worse ! In last few years ,we were losing hope ! At least now we have the hope again that tomorrow is going to be better
Thank you Tom for your updates ! I know how happy you are for the Syrian people
Nice more details Tom, thank you and really hope for the best for the Syrians these time, the two enablers Russia and Iran who coddled/supported the Assad Regime are losers. It is on the Syrians to reach a consensus asap to set their country straight and work at a pluralistic government, hope Jowlani and others should have seen the bad result of the Libyan Civil war and its effect.
Excellent report
Informative and interesting as always. Thanks Tom
Phew I can hardly believe. Assad is down. What a relief. There will be hardships moving forward. But this is a day for celebration.
Now that you mention all the returning refugees, that suggests solving European "refugee crisis" was always possible by militarily defeating the shitty governments of the countries where refugees are coming from? Somehow this seems to never have been even considered in the years of hand-wringing on the topic. An actual solution to the humanitarian issue through strength -- apparently a thought-crime to almost everyone.
The answer is simple: yes, of course it was.
Indeed, the refugee crisis could have easily been prevented - through timely action of 'the West'.
I remenber Obama put a brake a france, many years ago...thanks to that this tragedie last too long
Syria is one source of the migrants. If Syrians can now go back to Syria, wonderful. We're less than 24 hours in though. 20 years of experience in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan where we defeated the shitty governments and created refugee crises speak to the opposite conclusion. And it seems like some neocons are (predictably) leveraging the 24 hours experience of regime change stabilizing Syria to suggest a domino-like falling of Iran's regime.
I'm only talking about it as a potential solution to put on the table. I don't see anyone capable of going through with it and not making a mess (because it was an excuse for something else in the first place).
Yes, The West now deplores military solutions even if they work.
Thank you Tom. Get the appropriate information of this topic is very difficult
If they are true, are the reports of Assadists withdrawing from northern Latakia potentially very good news? Does that make the coastal plain vulnerable and a final end to this disgusting regime possible?
And thanks for reminding us that Assad's Syria is a narco-state. Captagon does not get in the headlines very often. I checked on Wikipedia and some reports have the annual trade at $57 billion with Assad raking off 80% of that. That is three times the estimated annual income of the Mexican cartels. Maybe we need to look no further for an explanation of how he managed to fund his regime. Ironically, it has been reported (by British tabloids, so not the most reliable sources) that the attackers in the Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow this year had taken Captagon beforehand.
Oh man, are you 'right on money' in this regards.
The only 'problem': the mass of that income from Captagon - ended in Asad's private pockets. He's one of the richest thugs on this planet (and the neighbourhood).
Precisely that is what doomed his regime to fail.
I always wonder what happens to those riches when these thugs die. Do the nice Swiss gentlemen keep it for themselves or do they make sure those bloody money are inherited as prescribed? It all goes somewhere.
They all go to the UAE and do as if nothing happened.
....except for laughing and complaininhg about all the troubles of those taking over.
Yes, the irony of being brought down by fearless insurgents fuelled by the drug you mass produce is wonderful.
Resembles Dune, by the way
LOL. So who are the Bene Gesserit in this?
Probably the US which support several parties at once.
I would say Israel because the US is shown clueless once again.
Yep, even if the majority of the drug money ended up in the coffers of Assad and his entourage... Now that the infrastructure is in place, it will be very tempting of the new people in power to continue taking in those sweet sweet billions. Even the Taliban with their strict religious laws did nothing worthwhile to curb the drug industry.
Indeed: the Taliban are living from drugs-production and smuggling.
Actually, why is not coffee and chocolate prohibited? They are similar drugs, though of weaker action.
Chocolate junkies are a menace. /s
Not quite the same. There's a reason suicide bombers are given Cap and not offered a mocha chocolate latte before their missions.
Pu-erh tea has similar effects, but it may slow down reflexes.
The original Coca-Cola had cocaine.
Ukrainian soldiers use energetic drinks, Wagners were drugged and Nazis run on meth.
Nazis mostly came down of meth after two years of war - it was a good booster but led to long periods of lethargy after wearing off, which is not good when you're doing attrition. The Japanese were much heavier users of the stuff as far as I know.
Yeah, Captagon is easy to manufacture and it's used by insurgents and armies across a wide swath of the planet.
Good chavista!
Should be $5.7 billion, not $57 billion.
Nope. I though that too. Double-checked it. Multiple sources agree. Post your sources (other than Wikipedia) if yours still disagree.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/tackling-the-illicit-drug-trade-fuelling-assads-war-machine
My source was Wikipedia. Though 5.7 billion does seem a more reasonable amount. 57 billion a year is a huge amount of money. If correct than Assad would be fantasticly wealthy. I don’t get the impression that he is.
Always a good idea to double-check your sources. Wikipedia does not get it right all the time (and never claims to). It was clearly a typo from whoever entered the figure. Double-checking was worth doing so this time, no? :)
$57 billion is a large sum well but within the range of similar drugs and their global markets. And the Assad's Syria was a nation state that used the Capatagon trade to finance their civil war. How else do you think they managed to survive for so long? The Captagon market is huge but little reported in the media outside the Middle East. Read up on it (beyond Wikipedia!) and you'll understand the size of it. The Assad's used the machinery of state to corner the bulk of Cap's production and distribution (80% of $57b) then creamed off the profits from that. So, yes, the Assads are fantastically wealthy from the profits of the Captagon trade. Family-run dictatorships are since they all loot their nations. But don't confuse the total estimate of the value of that drug's trade with the profits they will have made.
Dear Tom, thank you! I also in my heart hope for the people of Syria.
In terms of economics and all, I think the fight for Latakia would be recritical. And difficult to believe that it would be given up without the fight.
Any idea about relationships of the factions? Will Al-Jawlani have enough to settle the thing by force and negotiation? For having no single leader will not benefit Syrians at this stage.
What about international alliances? Will Qatar be willing to support the country beyond insurgents? Would Saudis want to interfere much more? What would be interests of Turkey, US, Iran, Israel? Do Syrians need new alliances like maybe Brits and French?
Anyway the special military operation for Damascus went well. That was a masterclass, declare the SMO start, when things are almost done.
I expect the CMO to let the Russians and the IRGC 'evacuate in peace' from Tartous and Latakia.
They might continue a 'cautious pursuit' of retreating Assadists, of course: the more terrain they secure, the better.
Beyond that: no idea.
As for relations between different factions... that's going to be a major issue in the coming weeks and months. Here it is going to be crucial to either disarm all the (de-facto) insurgent militias or integrate them into the CMO to create new, unified armed forces.
That alone would be a giant achievement - if for no other reason then to avoid the Libyan situation since 2012.
The developments were so fast! I woke up in the morning (6 am - GMT+6) and read all the updates for 1 hour or so. At that time I knew insurgents were entering Damascus and I thought they might face some resistance. I then moved to study for about an hour or so, and then opening facebook, I found people are rejoicing that Asad has fled (as per reuters)!
The video of the women prisoners is so depressing! Hope they get a lasting joy in their life and never have to face such horrors.
So there will be a new wave of Syrian refugees to Europe. I have a hunch that Poland and Hungary will be commanded to do their part to embrace "diversity and cultural enrichment."
Sounds like you're watching too much of the German and Austrian media.
This 'new wave of Syrian refugees' - is going to 'flee' to the UAE and Russia, not to the EU. Because the characters in question are Assadist henchmen and they know in the EU they're more likely to get arrested and prosecuted by the ICC, than living a funny life.
Yes, that's exactly the attitude I was referring to. Germans and Austrians seem annoyed that Poles and Hungarians get tons of aid but shirk the EU obligation to take in refugees. I assume you would know better than me if public and media sentiment would actually translate to political pressure.
As for Russia, granted, I have met *some* Syrian refugees here, but there are very few of them. If you're hoping that Russia is going to open their arms and take in millions of losers and give them free housing and welfare so they can smoke dope all day like they do in the EU - you're going to be in for a disappointment, sorry.
Can't speak for the UAE, but I suspect the attitude is similar.
The German and Austrian media - together with the large parts of the public - are living in their own fools paradise. One, where they are the victims of all the illegal immigration, and nobody in the EU has that kind of problem, but is only non-cooperative.
One, where their right-wing extremists are doing great by lying to the public that they are the solution: that they know how to deal with illegal immigrants, and can seriously do something against them (which is completely absurd, considering the scope of this problem and the fact, neither Germany, nor Austria, have any kind of control over the sources of the issue in question).
It is not only the media and the public, but the official line of our governments, that Syrian insurgents are 'Islamists' that 'toppled progressive' Assad. And that, of course, 'now there is going to be another wave of refugees from Syria'.
At the same time, they are ZIP LIP about all the Syrian refugees already returning to their homes, not to talk about those that are to follow.
It's the exactly the same self-deception like 'Israel is a happy end to the Holocaust', and thus we must support it with all our powers - or at least look away when it's orchestrating a genocide on Palestinians. The same lies about any kind of expression of solidarity with Palestinians = support of jihadist terrorism.
I'm already looking forward for the 'moment after', the rude awakening when the official explanation is going to be the same 'we did not know' like back in 1945.
Regarding Israel, I'm sure that you are right and "We did not know" will be the excuse. Which is amazing when Israelis literally boast about their crimes on every social media platform 24/7. Makes me lose even more faith in humanity.
Russia needs cannon fodder. This could be a good opportunity for it to recruit some.
Okay sure but that's kind of a self defeating argument. Why would a middle eastern guy want to go be a soldier or laborer in -40 weather when he could go to the EU, get welfare and not have to work at all?
My remark was ironic, but at the same time why did Indians, Bhutanese and others go to fight in Russia? It ended very badly for them but we will always find people willing to believe lies rather than face reality.
Well I don't want to generalize too much, because I do know Indian professionals in Moscow who seem quite successful, BUT the problem with Indians is they don't really have a niche here. They're too poorly educated to compete with Russia's homegrown university graduates or white collar professionals from other countries like Turkey. And for unskilled labor, Indians have to compete with immigrants from Kyrgystan and Tajikistan, who have special privileges in the Russian immigration code while Indians do not.
So I guess some Indians sign a military contract, where they can make a nice living digging trenches, but I guess they're too lazy for that either.
What is your source for claiming millions?
I am not saying you are wrong I did not see any credible estimates before.
In Russia, they get free medical care and a small one-off payment when they enter.
When I said "that Russia is going to open their arms and take in millions of losers" I meant a hypothetical onslaught refugees from middle eastern conflicts in general, not Syria alone. Sorry for being unclear.
You're right that people on refugees status in Russia get *some* benefits and can apply for aid from private humanitarian groups, but it's a joke compared to what they can get in western countries. The general attitude here is you have to work.
When is the last time German and Austrian opinions were valid on some geopolitical issue. Perennialy on the wrong side of history...
That is strange and anti-democratic reasoning...
Somewhere between 30 and 50% of Austrians would 'prefer' some sort of a 'strongman' in charge, to democracy.
OBSESSED with being on the wrong side of history. So much so, the people here simply can't think about alternatives.
Honestly, I was thinking about the refugee crisis in Tùrkiye and how many years would it take for the current situation to have a meaningful impact.
One one hand, there are very successful and industrious Syrian people integrated into the Türkish economy, on the other hand, there is a strong right-wing, nationalist "send them back" movement across all political parties and population sections...
Indeed. For me, one of most fascinating things about the Syrians is how industrious they are.
Here in the EU, one can find comparisons only within the ranks of the organised crime (where, actually, this begins already with our banks and insurances, not to talk about corrupt politicians). As 'people', we - here in Austria, for example - are helpless and lazy in comparison.
For the last 60 years, Syria was an isolated and conservative society, where any kind of private initiative was squashed by Assadist oppression and corruption. Now, with the return of so many refugees who have seen what's going on outside the country... well, I think, or at least hope: they're going to be 'limitless'.
Today is a great day !We are happy and going to celebrate!
It might take a lot of time for things to get better but it can’t get worse ! In last few years ,we were losing hope ! At least now we have the hope again that tomorrow is going to be better
Thank you Tom for your updates ! I know how happy you are for the Syrian people
Nice more details Tom, thank you and really hope for the best for the Syrians these time, the two enablers Russia and Iran who coddled/supported the Assad Regime are losers. It is on the Syrians to reach a consensus asap to set their country straight and work at a pluralistic government, hope Jowlani and others should have seen the bad result of the Libyan Civil war and its effect.
Thanks Tom!
What about the rumors that Assad’s plane crashed?
That was just an Il-76 landing at the Shayrat AB.
Extraordinary in scope and detail, superb. In sharp contrast to the PR bullshit from massmedia and propagandists sponsored by the RF.
And now, as described the real task begins. Let us hope for the best possible outcome for Syria and it's population.
Do you have any knowledge of massacre of Palestinians by Assad?
> "deflect"
> talks about Leningrad
Wtf?! Why would you say that?
Probably you didn't read this post, because he talks about Palestinians killed by Assad. I just wanted to know more.
There were several. The question is which one do you mean?
Could you nominate the most important ones?