Syria War, 8 December 2024

Good morning everybody!

No clear idea where to start, but lets see where is that heading.

If I understand it correctly, early this morning the Headquarters of the CMO declared this 8 December for the day of the downfall of the Assadist regime in Syria.

A statue of Hafez al-Assad - long-time dictator of Syria - as seen in the process of being torn down in Homs.

Perhaps I should start with the issue of ethnic and religious minorities - because, seemingly, everybody in ‘the West’ is exclusively concerned about these: as usual ever since the British and then the French conquered the area, back in 1918-1920, precisely because they are the majority of the local population, Sunni Arabs ‘do not matter’: ‘Syria’ is ‘all about Christians and whatever else’…

OK. For those (still) concerned about minorities, and once again: the CMO and its civic authorities - the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) - are trying their best to re-establish the supply of basic necessities. Mind that they can only do so in territories already under their control. For example: in areas under control since ‘about a week’, the Shi’a inhabitants of Nubol and Zahra in north-western Aleppo are supplied with food. The citizens of Idlib and Aleppo are supplied by food, water (at least 1-3 hours a day), and electricity, too.

Elsewhere… oh dear…

Mind that the task of providing basic necessities is going to get ever more complicated as ever more Syrian IDPs are returning from camps in western Idlib and northern Aleppo, as refugees are returning from Türkye, form Lebanon, from Jordan…. Mind: out of a population of perhaps 20 million, successive onslaughts of the Assadists, the IRGC, and the Russians converted up to 16 million of Syrians either into refugees abroad, or IDPs inside Syria.

Mind that Syria was not only looted empty by the Ba’athist rule since 1963, and especially the Assadism since 1970. It’s was a poor country already in the 2000s, and then was savaged by 13 years of unimaginably destructive war. The country is in no situation where ‘some sweeping up of the streets & reconnecting power lines’ is going to make do: it needs complete reconstruction, from bottom up. During the last few days of its rule over Aleppo, for example, ‘even’ the Assadist regime was able to supply electricity to the city for only one hour a day. Some districts were supplied by water perhaps three times a week. Sure, the locals are reporting that the situation improved significantly since the liberation; shops are open again, banks are working. But, that’s just Aleppo. Even as of yesterday, either the Assadists or the Russians were still bombing even the piss-poor ‘internally displaced persons’ vegetating for years in refugee camps of north-western Syria.

All of that means: the CMO and the SSG now have an incredibly complicated, gargantuan task on hand: one of establishing new civilian authorities, restoring basic functions of the state and society, establishing the rule of law and order. Alone that is going to take weeks and months, and certainly not going to be made any easier by endemic corruption that became a ‘norm’ between authorities, nor by how badly looted the country is, or by all the Assadist thugs - especially the so-called ‘Shabiha’ (essentially: the Syrian version of organised crime, which the last 13 years was at the service of the regime) - changing from their military uniforms into civilian clothes to disappear in the darkness, the last few days.

The economy is ruined: the last decade the Assadist regime was living from IRGC sponsoring it with billions of US$ in cash and loans, and from producing Captagon and smuggling it all over the world. Except for telecommunications, nothing else was working and producing anything useful. Even factories of concrete were ruined in teh war. Sure, there are still banks and shops, but in essence: economic centres of the country - like Aleppo and Homs - are in literal ruins. Essentially, Syria is in the state comparable to what one can see in different post-apocalyptic movies.

The task of rebuilding Syria is going to require lots of re-thinking by Syrians, too. Mind that under the Assad regime, police officers were literal nobodies: they were sitting on their motorcycles or in cars next to major crossroads and watching people and traffic pass by. Everybody ignored them and there was something like ‘self-administration’ of the traffic by drivers. Two generations of Syrian kids grew up without regular schools: they do not know better.

…and if you think this all is not mind-boggling enough: the Syrians also have to decide about the political future of their country, and - whatever they might be - the new authorities are also going to have to solve the issue of presence of foreign troops from multiple countries on the Syrian soil. Because, if they do not manage that, the country is not going to re-establish its sovereignty, not all the IDPs and refugees are going to find it safe to return, and troubles are not going to end.

The same is valid in regards of bringing Assad and his henchmen to the justice. That’s also going to cause ‘millions’ of problems - and that for years in advance. And then the physical and psychological recovery of all the victims of Assadist terror, dozens of thousands of inmates of its prisons (excellent example is this SyAAF-pilot who refused to bomb Hama in 1982: he was incarcerated ever since…. or what about female prisoners, often mothers of little kids that are results of years of rape?), survivors of the war… search for hundreds of thousands of people disappeared by Assadists, the IRGC, and the Russians… - and all of that while all the possible domestic and foreign Assad- and Putin-fans are going to remain at large.

Therefore, a ‘recommended viewing’, here: Assad’s last speech at the Arab League Summit in Riyadh (what you can see in the upper left corner, is the mass execution of Palestinian men by thugs of Assad’s Republican Guards).

Bottom line: sorry, this war is actually still going on. Indeed, the CMO’s declaration of the downfall of the Assadist regime is anything else than something like ‘official declaration of the end of the war’.

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Before I go on with something like a ‘list of most important developments’, a ‘disclaimer’. Regardless what of ‘authoritative Western journalists’ are reporting in the mainstream media (heck, even such like Jenan Moussa are making this mistake; and that’s not to talk about dozens of Assad-fans and IRGC-shills, that can - intentionally - not stop babbling this hogwash): the CMO - the principal insurgent force - is NOT ‘supported by Türkye’. Neither supported, nor controlled.

In the case of doubt, check the time of their posts: most of social media presences, and the mainstream media babbling nonsense are at least 24-, often 48 or even more hours ‘behind the developments’.

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As usually, from north towards south…

Manbij… Türkish-controlled Syrian National Army (SNA; and yes, this part of insurgency is Türkye-controlled) continued assaulting the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF-held area. That is: the way things are looking by now, the related US authorities - that is the Pentagon, via the Central Command (CENTCOM) and the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) - are supporting the PKK/YPG/SDF in Syria, no doubt, but: ‘not everywhere’. Apparently, they do not consider this part of Syria for their sphere of responsibility. This is why the USA have no military presence there. The Russians and the Assadists used to have, but they run away. Therefore, Erdogan is not only free to order the SNA into attack on Manbij, but also to support it by the firepower of the Türkish Armed Forces. Result: two villages liberated by the SNA, yesterday, plus additional, though minimal advances down the western side of the Euphrates River.

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Dayr az-Zawr… there are reports in the Syrian social media that the PKK/YPG/SDF has abandoned the biggest city in eastern/north-eastern Syria. The PKK/YPG/SDF has (‘officially’) denied this. The CMO has announced an ‘advance in western Dayr az-Zawr countryside’ and to have ‘started entering the city’, though.

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Idlib & Aleppo

‘For the records’: 200 civilians were massacred by Assadist and Russian bombs in the last 11 days alone.

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Latakia… there are reports in the Syrian social media that the Assadists have fled from their positions in northern Latakia: withdrawn in direction of the city. This is still not confirmed. We’ll have to wait for more news during the day.

There are also reports that Assad did not flee to the UAE, but to Latakia. A corresponding link here, ‘for the records’. We’ll see what comes out.

The Russians are accelerating their evacuation from the Hmeymim AB - with help of Antonov An-124 and Ilyushin Il-76 transports (which are using the Türkish airspace for this purpose).

That said, for me, by far the most striking piece of news from the last night is the report that the CMO seized Masyaf.

Sure, this is not going to ‘ring bells’ for lots of people. But, the way I know it, Masyaf was not only a hotbed of Assadism, and one of most important bases of the IRGC and Hezbollah since around 2018-2019, but also one of three pillars of the ‘Russian Triangle’ (Hmeymim AB - Masyaf - Tartous): the best-protected (by the Russians) part of Syria.

If truth, this is really a ‘boom’-type of news.

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Hama… was in celebrations through the night…

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Homs… was declared as liberated by the CMO and in celebrations, the entire night. And, if there are any doubts: when ‘even’ freelance Syrian journalists and activists reporting in Arabic (only) start reporting from the Clock Square in Homs, then you can be 1000% sure: Homs is free of Assadism.

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Al-Qusayr… this is a town some 30km south-west of Homs, near the border to Lebanon. This is where the Hezbollah won its first major victory over the insurgents, back in early 2013. Three days ago, the Hezbollah - some say: its ‘Radwan’ Special Force - passed the area on the way to help Assadists in Homs, then the Israelis reported hitting them from the air, then the Hezbollah-fans in Lebanon reported the troops run back over the border. One way or the other: al-Qusayr is meanwhile under the CMO-control.

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Palmyra.. is under the ‘rebel control’: apparently, that of the US-supported Free Syrian Army. That said, the CMO troops made a major advance towards this area, yesterday afternoon and evening, too: I’m just not 100% sure who exactly is where.

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Damascus… was declared as liberated by the CMO… Jowlani (leader of the CMO) assigned the last Prime Minister of the Assadist Regime the task of transferring the power (the HTS seems to have been in touch with him for days already): late in the afternoon, he was escorted from his office to the Four Seasons Hotel by a an insurgent security element. Immediately after (according to the CMO), ‘heads of (regime’s) intelligence branches completed their arrangements to hand out the control of the capital’ (Damascus).

Jowlani has strictly prohibited his troops from even approaching any of public institutions. If you see any videos of armed men entering these: they’re either no CMO, or belong to formations from the south, which are not used to CMO’s discipline. The HTS has also issued a ‘Statement on Chemicals in Syria’ (meaning: chemical weapons). They expressed their, ‘full readiness to cooperate with the international coummunity in… monitoring weapons and sensitive sites’ (that said, the primary production facilities for the Assadist regime’s chemical weapon were in as-Safira, and this is controlled by the SNA already since around 1 December).

Shortly after midnight local time, armed civilians have entered the Republican Palace, while the General Staff of the Syrian Armed Forces announced the fall of the regime to all of its troops.

During the evening, the insurgents have reached the notorious Sednaya Prison, and began freeing the inmates. The same happened in Adra Central Prison, and the scenes from there… sigh…

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Outside Syria… Putin’s PRBS-industrialists are crying about ‘Russians killed in Damascus’, and a lack of an evacuation… Of course: not one is coming to the idea to blame Putin for that. The issue of responsibility is never a question in Russia: the country is ‘yet again’ a victim of yet another conspiracy, of course…

While in the USA: well, at least it’s funny to watch the never-ending woes of the Biden Administration in Washington DC: they expect the Assad regime to fall in a matter of days..

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Well, that’s it for this morning. More might follow later during the day - although I must admit, I might need some extra sleep after the last few days.