I am utterly amazed at how quickly the memes are composed and published online. In the "old days," it would be political cartoons on the editorial page of daily newspapers, not that these forms of entertainment are lacking nowadays. **LOL**
Our radio (RNZ) just finished talking to it's International reporter (courtesy of the BBC I think) who was talking about Homs and CMO being an Al-Qaeda off shot...
Let us be specific pluralism based good governance, NOT just any good governance. Otherwise it is just a changing of the power holders if clique/special interests groups are in power
"The Republican Guard changed into civilian clothes and melted into the population..." Hmm, where have I heard that before.. sometime around 2003 perhaps..
I have read (in my opinion) a comprehensible theory that this success of the insurgents was largely only possible in this form due to Israel's actions in the last few months. Because Israel has wiped out almost the entire leadership of Hezbollah and has inflicted very serious damage on Hezbollah itself.
As a result, Hezbollah could no longer support Assad with fighters.
And Israel has also shown that Iran is more of a lame duck and is mainly bluffing, which meant that Iran's protection of Assad was no longer seen as a major threat.
The fate of Hezbollah is another question that opens up. Of course they won't disappear because they are unfortunately rooted in Lebanon, but it is to be expected that their influence, power and, above all, danger potential will shrink significantly after the transport route from Iran to Lebanon will (probably) become significantly more difficult in the future and with it Replenishment of Iranian weapons and missiles.
Of course there is no one big reason for what we are seeing in Syria right now, but I am convinced that the first domino in this chain of events was knocked over not in Syria itself but in one of the neighboring countries.
I know a few of Hezbollah and some of the IRGC: they say, the Israeli onslaught on them in Lebanon and Syria only removed 'old farts'. And these are replaced by some very extreme and very smart people. Hezbollah is deeply embedded with the local population and there to stay - meanwhile reinforced by even more Iranians.
The point about Assadism was the absolute unwillingness of the regime to reform. They simply expected Tehran to continue funding them like since late 2011. By 2015, this rose to over US$ 100 billion; there are estimates that meanwhile it reached over 200 billion. And the Assadists just kept on living in their fools paradise. They began co-financing themselves by manufacturing immense quantities of Captagon, and smuggling these all around the world.
What happened? They were invited back to the Arab League, and just a few days ago, the Biden admin was 'loudly thinking' about normalising relations.
Overall, sorry: there is, very much, just one big reason for what's happening in Syria.
That's Assadism. Self-destructive greed that ruined a once-flourishing country, and that to the very last moment.
Thanks a million for these reports Tom! What we have here is a failed narco state too busy genociding its own people to reform. A fool’s paradise/hell for sure.
"And Israel has also shown that Iran is more of a lame duck and is mainly bluffing, which meant that Iran's protection of Assad was no longer seen as a major threat."
Operations True Promise 1 and 2 shooting hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel (a nuclear power no less) in a form of direct confrontation not seen since 1973 don't seem like the actions of a bluffing state. I am minded to agree with you though; it's not however that the Iranian leadership are weak, but rather than the "Axis of Resistance" was geared for hybrid warfare. When Hamas (a Qatar allied movement) committed their stupid October 7th operation, they handed Israel a pretext to cut the Gordian Knot and disrupted the IRGC's planning. Who is primarily benefiting now? Oh, Turkey, but also Qatari allied "independent" rebels.
Hitler was expecting a derelict shack that would come crashing down if someone kicked in the door. He didn't find one, neither did Putin. Apparently, however, the thing does exist.
It never was on the brink of collapse, not even with all its idiocy, paranoia and ridiculous losses. Assad here went down without even really trying to fight.
"Sure, I became a news-junky, today, but that’s life: here’s already the third update."
Who can judge if something you watch for 13 years is reaching unexpectedly its culmination point. Especially as this as the area you wrote quite plenty of books about and therefore know people directly.
The private plane, which left Damascus few hours ago, has landed in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcq6sa2w6c2s
Notice the first comment and picture. Yessiree, the hero of Syrian right.
I am utterly amazed at how quickly the memes are composed and published online. In the "old days," it would be political cartoons on the editorial page of daily newspapers, not that these forms of entertainment are lacking nowadays. **LOL**
Я так розумію що на одно диктатора менше стало у світі, чекаємо, дай Бог скине ще одного в кремлі!
Think, what happened in Syria is a very good example for Ukraine, and then one giving me lots of hope, too.
Reform, reorganisation, professionalisation, and then the strike back.
I do hope so much that what is happening in Syria is good for Ukraine.
Bad for the accursed Putin, i hope too. I think it is
I hoped you’d connect Syria to Ukraine in this way. So encouraging.
Phew, thanks for this continuity broadcast.
Our radio (RNZ) just finished talking to it's International reporter (courtesy of the BBC I think) who was talking about Homs and CMO being an Al-Qaeda off shot...
It really happened! I guess when the house of cards falls, it all happens very quickly.
Let's hope CMO can set up good governance.
Let us be specific pluralism based good governance, NOT just any good governance. Otherwise it is just a changing of the power holders if clique/special interests groups are in power
I can’t see the remnants of isil being allowed to hang on too much longer after this. Once Assad is cleared away they can be crushed like bugs.
Thanks for wonderful information stream!
"The Republican Guard changed into civilian clothes and melted into the population..." Hmm, where have I heard that before.. sometime around 2003 perhaps..
It's a common refrain over the decades when regimes fall.
Thanks. Had some hopes that Assad will make a last stand and … have justice delivered upon him.
I have read (in my opinion) a comprehensible theory that this success of the insurgents was largely only possible in this form due to Israel's actions in the last few months. Because Israel has wiped out almost the entire leadership of Hezbollah and has inflicted very serious damage on Hezbollah itself.
As a result, Hezbollah could no longer support Assad with fighters.
And Israel has also shown that Iran is more of a lame duck and is mainly bluffing, which meant that Iran's protection of Assad was no longer seen as a major threat.
The fate of Hezbollah is another question that opens up. Of course they won't disappear because they are unfortunately rooted in Lebanon, but it is to be expected that their influence, power and, above all, danger potential will shrink significantly after the transport route from Iran to Lebanon will (probably) become significantly more difficult in the future and with it Replenishment of Iranian weapons and missiles.
Of course there is no one big reason for what we are seeing in Syria right now, but I am convinced that the first domino in this chain of events was knocked over not in Syria itself but in one of the neighboring countries.
I'll respectfully disagree.
I know a few of Hezbollah and some of the IRGC: they say, the Israeli onslaught on them in Lebanon and Syria only removed 'old farts'. And these are replaced by some very extreme and very smart people. Hezbollah is deeply embedded with the local population and there to stay - meanwhile reinforced by even more Iranians.
The point about Assadism was the absolute unwillingness of the regime to reform. They simply expected Tehran to continue funding them like since late 2011. By 2015, this rose to over US$ 100 billion; there are estimates that meanwhile it reached over 200 billion. And the Assadists just kept on living in their fools paradise. They began co-financing themselves by manufacturing immense quantities of Captagon, and smuggling these all around the world.
What happened? They were invited back to the Arab League, and just a few days ago, the Biden admin was 'loudly thinking' about normalising relations.
Overall, sorry: there is, very much, just one big reason for what's happening in Syria.
That's Assadism. Self-destructive greed that ruined a once-flourishing country, and that to the very last moment.
Thanks a million for these reports Tom! What we have here is a failed narco state too busy genociding its own people to reform. A fool’s paradise/hell for sure.
So 'sleepy Joe' is also a 'creepy Joe', no real surprise although.
This remenber me my onw country
"And Israel has also shown that Iran is more of a lame duck and is mainly bluffing, which meant that Iran's protection of Assad was no longer seen as a major threat."
Operations True Promise 1 and 2 shooting hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel (a nuclear power no less) in a form of direct confrontation not seen since 1973 don't seem like the actions of a bluffing state. I am minded to agree with you though; it's not however that the Iranian leadership are weak, but rather than the "Axis of Resistance" was geared for hybrid warfare. When Hamas (a Qatar allied movement) committed their stupid October 7th operation, they handed Israel a pretext to cut the Gordian Knot and disrupted the IRGC's planning. Who is primarily benefiting now? Oh, Turkey, but also Qatari allied "independent" rebels.
You are amazing! Hours, sometimes a day or more, ahead of all major media and other bloggers that I know of.
Assad should be given the Mussolini/Gadaffi treatment. Sorry to hear he may have gotten away.
Hitler was expecting a derelict shack that would come crashing down if someone kicked in the door. He didn't find one, neither did Putin. Apparently, however, the thing does exist.
Stalin’s shack came very close to being a house of cards.
It never was on the brink of collapse, not even with all its idiocy, paranoia and ridiculous losses. Assad here went down without even really trying to fight.
As per always. Great Intel Tom, thanks.
Thanks, Tom, and please keep that junky business going I don't have any place worth my time for news other than this place,.
Tom Cooper, read yours updates is like listen sw BBC in the 40s, thanks!
"Sure, I became a news-junky, today, but that’s life: here’s already the third update."
Who can judge if something you watch for 13 years is reaching unexpectedly its culmination point. Especially as this as the area you wrote quite plenty of books about and therefore know people directly.