Syria War, 7 December 2024: Damascus Falling

Hello everybody!

Sure, I became a news-junky, today, but that’s life: here’s already the third update.

The reason is as follows: around 16.00hrs local time today, the US-supported units of the Free Syrian Army have reached Yabrud. That’s a town on the M5 Highway, connecting Damascus with Homs. With this, Damascus lost the land connection to Homs, and thus to the coast.

About an hour later, a private jet took off from Damascus IAP, and flew away to Abu Dhabi. There are claims that Bashar al-Assad was on board (the photo in that post is about 20 years old; thus, ‘enjoy with caution’).

According to people living in Damascus, the Assadist forces then all but disappeared from the city. They’ve all withdrawn, some changing into civilan clothes in the middle of the streets. Even the Building of the Ministry of Defence was (as of about one hour ago) empty: protected by just two guards. There were a few troops and military cars in front of the Air Force Headquarters, near the Umayyaden Square. Just, nobody knows where are the Assadists disappearing to: some of contacts with relatives serving in the Republican Guards and the Air Force said that they all ‘went to the coast’. Though, in such case, the question is how did they escape from Damascus - and that on time?

Point is: even Assad’s guards are not where they are usually posted. Indeed, none are to be seen even in such places like Qura al-Assad (‘Assad Villages’, which is an area with housing for the Republican Guards’s officers and other ranks, and their dependants), in the Qudssaya, nor in the area around the presidential palace (overlooking the city), or at Mount Qasyoun (the tall hill overlooking the entire city.

BTW, there is an opposite ‘version’ of developments: correspondingly, it was the insurgents from Suwayda (southernmost green line on the map above), who first cut off the highway to Damascus International (and that short after the take-off of that biz-jet from there), and then drove all the way to Douma).

This would be important to know because: after liberating Yaburd, the FSyA units turned south, drove down the M5 and - about 1-2 hours ago - have reached the Douma area, eastern suburbs of Damascus. I doubt they’ve left any Assadists passing by in opposite direction run away just like that.

Around the same time, insurgents advancing from Qunaitra (Ahrar Horan OR) and from Dera’a or Suwayda have reached the southern suburbs, while popular uprisings, demonstrations, and celebrations of the downfall of the regime were reported from multiple districts around the city centre. For example: from Harasta, Irbin, Jisreen, Jarama, Sbeneh, and even from Darayya. The latter is an interesting example because it used to be the most pluralist of insurgent-held area (held several elections for local civic authorities while besieged by Assadists and the IRGC, from 2012 until 2018): however, then it was handed over by Assad to the IRGC. But, now there are people on its streets demolishing symbols of Assadism…

The insurgents approaching from the south are known to have reached the notorious Sednaya prison, where over 6,000 of detainees - mostly activists that led the demonstrations of 2011 - were mass-murdered in 2012-2013. And where thousands of oppositionals were held until this very day: some so long, they didn’t know that Hafez al-Assad died back in the Year 2000…

Overall, the regime’s control over Damascus is about to completely collapse this evening. Which is even more surprising considering the last known order issues by Bashar al-Assad on his armed forces was to ‘defend Damascus’. Correspondingly, the entire day, ever additional units were streaming back towards the capitol, from the south (Dera’a and Suwayda), but also from the east and north (Dmeyr, T-4/Tiyas, Palmyra etc.). Indeed, there are rumours according to which Assad is still somewhere in Damascus.

A ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled anti-aircraft gun of the Republican Guards Division (easily recognisable by the desert colour of its armoured vehicles) passing al-Kisweh in direction of Damascus, earlier today.

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As for developments in the Homs area: must update myself on what’s up there. Then I’m going to post them too.