Thanks for report. Perfect write with lot of details and evidence. Should be must read for everybody who wants to know something what is hapenning there.
1 question: CMO has captured some MRLS BM30 and probably also some ammo for them. They should be in a range for Hmeymim AB. Can they destroy shelters and planes in or it need something more powerfull?
Yes, they can. Depending on ammunition used, BM-30s can reach out to 120km. And, from Qatal al-Mudiq area, for example, it's 'just' some 35km (as the crow flies) to Hmeymim AB.
However, they first have to recover the vehicles, then find the ammunition for them, then train the crews.
Moreover, their focus remains on Hama. Thus, I do not expect them to start targeting Hmeymim AB any time soon.
That video "YPG/PKK militias brutally executed 20 Syrian rebels" is so blurred that it cannot be taken as a proof seriously. No geolocation is possible, too.
EU General Court annuls PKK 2014 historic terrorism listing, claiming the listing was never properly justified. Unfortunately, EU countries do not need to follow that decision and still keeps it because of strong pressure from Türkye. Anti-PKK propaganda is much more than half Türkye (MIT) crafted.
Erm, you don't know why the negotiations for a Kurdish autonomy in Turkey - between two top Kurdish parties in Turkey (both of which were supportive for Erdogan) - and Erdogan's AKP have failed?
Because the Kurds couldn't agree between themselves, which of their 47-48 languages would be official.
....and now they're complaining when Turkish authorities decide on their own, and teach one of these languages at schools?
Do you understand how ridiculous is your comparison?
Omgsh, that's ridiculous, Turkish authorities has to control teaching Kurdish language. And why? Because Turks want to have it under control. That stupid two hours a week, not whole education like is EU standard for minorities.
From the article: Hudai Morarslan why parents not asking about Kurdish lessons: "Everyone is afraid to ask," he said, adding that there is a constant fear of being stigmatised by the state and linked to the PKK...
Earlier, dozens of people singing and dancing to Kurdish songs at weddings were detained on charges of "spreading terrorist propaganda"
Ihsan Yildiz, 42, who works in the construction sector in Istanbul, said his 15-year-old daughter Meryem received no response to her request for Kurdish class from her Islamic Imam Hatip school. She then stopped asking.
His children understand some Kurdish but can't read it.
"My mother who lives with us does not speak Turkish. I translate when my children talk to their grandmother. This is so sad."
And that's what Turks want, make Kurdish language and culture forgotten.
Yes, that is ridiculous - to people who do not know, there are large, Kurdish-dominated areas in Turkey (often stretching 60-100km) where no Turks dare going. Not even the army, not to talk about police.
But then, you do not happen to have contacts living in big caravans, travelling around all the time, and having passed through one such area earlier this year - to, much to surprise of the Turks, still be alive.
Instead, you prefer to gauge the situation from the social media and videos showing 9,5 people dancing... which, of course, is pure matters of fact and truth, nothing but the truth, so God help the viewer...
Because Qatari ideology is to support and spread 'political Islam'. The idea along which Islam dominates the public and social life, no matter where.
That's what they were doing, and are still doing in Libya, too (and what then failed but caused the civil war in that country). That's what they've been doing in Iraq as well, and what they are doing in the EU all the time.
In Syria, they've been supporting the HTS - i.e. the former Nusra - since around 2013.
Just, Jowlani seems to have his own ideas in this regards - which is: 're-birth of the Syrian nation under Islam, BUT Syria for everybody'.
Nothing new, an old alliance of "Muslim Brotherhood" with Turkey and Qatar in the lead. They tried and succееded in Egypt back in 2011 (not for a long, though). They use Al-Nusra in Syria instead in different new forms , the idea is the same. This assault of "freedom fighters" and the existance of Idlib enclave for 5 years were possible only thanx to the Turkey.
And since another old alliance between Turkey and Israel is playing like a good seasoned team, the picture is very clear.
The army of peace-loving islamists may consist of Syrians by 90%, but they are puppets in foreign hands.
....while, thanks Holly Putin, the true freedom fighters then bombed out 5 hospitals in Idlib in a matter of 5 minutes. Plus a Christian medical university in Aleppo.
Now, everything's going to be much better, and all of Syria's going to be free... thanks to Holly Putin, too.
Ok. Again my same question: how could VKS/Putin/Wagner/YouNameIt intentionally bomb hospitals if the unguided bombs are inaccurate and missing targets? Never doubted huge collateral damage though.
White Helmets are well known for staged videos, it's a part of propaganda war.
Just fly low enough and slow enough you cannot miss, the rebels don't seem to have their air defences in action so there is no reason to fly high and fast.
Another excellent analysis by Tom Cooper, which leads me to the following questions, as the stakes for all the major players are rising:
1) If Assad falls, who could replace him with which consequences?
2) Seems as if the SDF thinks it is now the right time to get a bigger share of Syria under control. Although backed up to a certain amount by the US it will bring them into direct confrontation to Turkey (doesn't like a kurdish state next to it's border) and Iran ('land bridge' to Lebanon). Isn't there a large potential for further conflicts?
1.) There's no point in discussing this as long as Assad is still around. He first must be toppled.
Indeed, I think that even Jowlani has figured out: there's no point in discussing that as long as Assad is still around.
....with which he's back to what already Colonel Riyad al-Assad said, when defecting from the Syrian Arab Army and establishing the Free Syrian Army, back in April 2011.
(What a surprise, Assad - after surviving four assassination attempts by Assadists, IRGC, Russians and the Daesh, and losing an eye, an arm, and one leg in the process - then joined Jowlani, back in 2019.)
2.) Yes. That's why they've convinced the Americans to support them in their onslaught on the Khasham Pocket. That, however, is too far from Türkye for Erdogan's interest. I expect him to first 'do something' about Manbij, Ayn al-Arab/Kobane and Ayn al-Isa. And then continue in similar, small steps, until there's a 20km wide buffer zone between the PKK and Türkye.
....and in general, the PKK is then going to finish itself on its own. Because it's not from Syria, and because it's terror and idiotic Marxist indoctriation do not work in Syria, but are only provoking ever more local insurgencies.
AFAIK, CMO's point of view is: 'Assad first'. That's also why they're pushing so hard on Hama, not on Hmeymim, and why they're - contrary to the Türkye-supported SNA (Hawk Killis OR) - not messing around with the PKK.
And I find that logical. Once there's no Assad, the Russians have no excuse to remain in the country; nobody invited the IRGC any more either, and the PKK would lose its third most-important supporter, too (historically: Assadism is its second most-important supporter, but then came the USA).
USA, Russia, and Assad. Moscow is supporting the PKK already since its establishment in 1986. Assad followed closely second. Since 2015, the USA are the primary supporter.
It's incredible, dozen Su-24 have been captured in Syria. It's time to start negotiations with the rebels how to receive at least six of them, even in poor condition. Ukraine needs them.
Thank you Tom. After reading your report, a question arose. To what extent do the Assadists - the Syrian army, the Iranians and the Russians interact with each other? Do they have separate sectors on the front line or mixed battle formations?
Sometimes (especially when they're superior in numbers and fire-power) they're working closely together, but most of the times the Russians are trying to keep the IRGC away from the Assadists.
"over the last 5-6 years, Jowlani has crystalised a new doctrine." Absolutely true. However, how it happened that seasoned jihadist turned into the moderate oppositionist, switching from Jihad worldwide to Syria united? What made him "recover his sight"? The answer is well-known for those who can google. For the last 5 years British and US envoys (read intel services) are visiting him regularly, even bringing media to interview him, with the ultimate target to take him out from the official terrorist lists. In exchange, he became a puppet in certain hands. Must admit, he plays his role brilliantly, even Tom "bought' it.
If you had actually read the above post, you would have found out that Jowlani was never a "jihadist," to begin with.
Just one of many pious Syrian Sunni Muslims who were imprisoned by the Assadists and then extremized in their prisons.
Of course, if you ignore what I post, then all explanations are in vain (and, certainly enough, to people like you, I start sounding like a "jihadist supporter"). That's the point at which I start to consider the easiest option: click ignore / ban.: if people do not read (or do not comprehend what they read), but come here to post their prejudice and guessing, there's no point in running the entire blog.
Tom, it's not difficult to find details of Jowlani "career path". He was never in prison in Syria (his father was though). He was born in Saudi Arabia, then as a kid returned with his family to Syria (lived in the prestigious Mazzeh part of Damascus) and stayed there peacefullly tilll....US invasion to Iraq. There he went to fight for AQ. In 2006 he was captured by US troops and was in prison for 5 years.
And then the most interesting thing happened. He was released in 2011 and instantly went to Syrian war (what a happy coincidence). Most likely CIA asset by that time. In Syria became a leader of al-Nusra, targeting Alawites, Shia, and etc, but not Western forces. In 2017 broke relations with AQ and started his "legalisation". A perfect work of US and UK intel services. The picture is very clear.
Re. the IRGC and Hamas: I can definitely believe they are fickle friends. An organization with probably the greatest amount of experience running insurgencies in the world, and which seems to prefer to keep things below the threshold of full scale conflict, probably wouldn't have advised doing the (in hindsight) rather stupid attacks of October 7th... But I'm thinking the IRGC doesn't have to be a faithful friend of Hamas to be the most capable foe of Israel.
Ideologically, it's making no sense. Hamas = Muslim Brotherhood, one sort of Islamo-Fascists; IRGC = Twelver Shi'a, another sort of Islamo-Fascists. The two are absolutely non-compatible (or as compatible as Communism and Nazism).
....which is also why I'm not buying all the claims about 'Iranian support'.
Ironically, the mass of authoritiative Israeli assessments is supporting my conclusions.
Regarding that recently captured "advanced 48Y6-K1 Podlet" radar, is it modern enough that the CMO could offer access to the US for deep analysis in exchange for, e.g., refraining from undermining the new "revolution"?
Thanks for the update and the "scorecard" and "flag identification IFF" exercise Tom. The heavy disinformation on what a jihadist/AQ terrorist and others is what is driving some of the public narratives, and you "shot down" literally the BS. Waiting for more updates on the Syrian uncivil Civil War( started on 2011-2012) to finish and for the Syrians to have a country again. (Which will take some time)
Thank you very much. Is there any evidence for Hezbollah presence with the Russian forces ?
With the Russian forces: AFAIK, none.
One of Hezbollah COs was killed by the Israelis outside the IRGC's HQ outside the Damascus IAP; two nights ago, though.
Most likely, he was involved in organising the transshipment of Iranian arms for Hezbollah in Lebanon, though.
Thank you very much.
Thanks for report. Perfect write with lot of details and evidence. Should be must read for everybody who wants to know something what is hapenning there.
1 question: CMO has captured some MRLS BM30 and probably also some ammo for them. They should be in a range for Hmeymim AB. Can they destroy shelters and planes in or it need something more powerfull?
Yes, they can. Depending on ammunition used, BM-30s can reach out to 120km. And, from Qatal al-Mudiq area, for example, it's 'just' some 35km (as the crow flies) to Hmeymim AB.
However, they first have to recover the vehicles, then find the ammunition for them, then train the crews.
Moreover, their focus remains on Hama. Thus, I do not expect them to start targeting Hmeymim AB any time soon.
That video "YPG/PKK militias brutally executed 20 Syrian rebels" is so blurred that it cannot be taken as a proof seriously. No geolocation is possible, too.
EU General Court annuls PKK 2014 historic terrorism listing, claiming the listing was never properly justified. Unfortunately, EU countries do not need to follow that decision and still keeps it because of strong pressure from Türkye. Anti-PKK propaganda is much more than half Türkye (MIT) crafted.
The PKK is like Israel: the best anti-propaganda for itself.
Türkye is like Russia, they deny a sovereign nation rights to exists, use their language in schools, etc. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kurdish-pupils-denied-language-lessons-turkey-amid-wider-curbs-families-say-2024-12-04/
Erm, you don't know why the negotiations for a Kurdish autonomy in Turkey - between two top Kurdish parties in Turkey (both of which were supportive for Erdogan) - and Erdogan's AKP have failed?
Because the Kurds couldn't agree between themselves, which of their 47-48 languages would be official.
....and now they're complaining when Turkish authorities decide on their own, and teach one of these languages at schools?
Do you understand how ridiculous is your comparison?
Omgsh, that's ridiculous, Turkish authorities has to control teaching Kurdish language. And why? Because Turks want to have it under control. That stupid two hours a week, not whole education like is EU standard for minorities.
From the article: Hudai Morarslan why parents not asking about Kurdish lessons: "Everyone is afraid to ask," he said, adding that there is a constant fear of being stigmatised by the state and linked to the PKK...
Earlier, dozens of people singing and dancing to Kurdish songs at weddings were detained on charges of "spreading terrorist propaganda"
Ihsan Yildiz, 42, who works in the construction sector in Istanbul, said his 15-year-old daughter Meryem received no response to her request for Kurdish class from her Islamic Imam Hatip school. She then stopped asking.
His children understand some Kurdish but can't read it.
"My mother who lives with us does not speak Turkish. I translate when my children talk to their grandmother. This is so sad."
And that's what Turks want, make Kurdish language and culture forgotten.
Yes, that is ridiculous - to people who do not know, there are large, Kurdish-dominated areas in Turkey (often stretching 60-100km) where no Turks dare going. Not even the army, not to talk about police.
But then, you do not happen to have contacts living in big caravans, travelling around all the time, and having passed through one such area earlier this year - to, much to surprise of the Turks, still be alive.
Instead, you prefer to gauge the situation from the social media and videos showing 9,5 people dancing... which, of course, is pure matters of fact and truth, nothing but the truth, so God help the viewer...
Hello, I have a question. Why is Katar supporting CMO? What's their endgame?
Because Qatari ideology is to support and spread 'political Islam'. The idea along which Islam dominates the public and social life, no matter where.
That's what they were doing, and are still doing in Libya, too (and what then failed but caused the civil war in that country). That's what they've been doing in Iraq as well, and what they are doing in the EU all the time.
In Syria, they've been supporting the HTS - i.e. the former Nusra - since around 2013.
Just, Jowlani seems to have his own ideas in this regards - which is: 're-birth of the Syrian nation under Islam, BUT Syria for everybody'.
Nothing new, an old alliance of "Muslim Brotherhood" with Turkey and Qatar in the lead. They tried and succееded in Egypt back in 2011 (not for a long, though). They use Al-Nusra in Syria instead in different new forms , the idea is the same. This assault of "freedom fighters" and the existance of Idlib enclave for 5 years were possible only thanx to the Turkey.
And since another old alliance between Turkey and Israel is playing like a good seasoned team, the picture is very clear.
The army of peace-loving islamists may consist of Syrians by 90%, but they are puppets in foreign hands.
....while, thanks Holly Putin, the true freedom fighters then bombed out 5 hospitals in Idlib in a matter of 5 minutes. Plus a Christian medical university in Aleppo.
Now, everything's going to be much better, and all of Syria's going to be free... thanks to Holly Putin, too.
Tom, asking for a friend: how come VKS, with inaccurate free-fall bombs, managed to hit that precisely 5 hospitals?
Seriously, to use White Helmets propaganda is somewhat strange.
No matter what VKS hit, without additional external help Assad will be doomed. And the help is coming:
https://t.me/btvt2019/16542?single
....and you're ignoring intentional strikes on hospitals and falling for BS about the White Helmets... how convenient, thanks Holly Putin.
Ok. Again my same question: how could VKS/Putin/Wagner/YouNameIt intentionally bomb hospitals if the unguided bombs are inaccurate and missing targets? Never doubted huge collateral damage though.
White Helmets are well known for staged videos, it's a part of propaganda war.
https://observers.france24.com/en/20180514-white-helmets-allegations-fact-fiction
Even reading this pro-WH article, one can have enough corresponding doubts.
Are you seriously denying near-simultaneous air strikes on five hospitals in Idlib and Aleppo?
" if the unguided bombs are inaccurate "
Just fly low enough and slow enough you cannot miss, the rebels don't seem to have their air defences in action so there is no reason to fly high and fast.
Another excellent analysis by Tom Cooper, which leads me to the following questions, as the stakes for all the major players are rising:
1) If Assad falls, who could replace him with which consequences?
2) Seems as if the SDF thinks it is now the right time to get a bigger share of Syria under control. Although backed up to a certain amount by the US it will bring them into direct confrontation to Turkey (doesn't like a kurdish state next to it's border) and Iran ('land bridge' to Lebanon). Isn't there a large potential for further conflicts?
1.) There's no point in discussing this as long as Assad is still around. He first must be toppled.
Indeed, I think that even Jowlani has figured out: there's no point in discussing that as long as Assad is still around.
....with which he's back to what already Colonel Riyad al-Assad said, when defecting from the Syrian Arab Army and establishing the Free Syrian Army, back in April 2011.
(What a surprise, Assad - after surviving four assassination attempts by Assadists, IRGC, Russians and the Daesh, and losing an eye, an arm, and one leg in the process - then joined Jowlani, back in 2019.)
2.) Yes. That's why they've convinced the Americans to support them in their onslaught on the Khasham Pocket. That, however, is too far from Türkye for Erdogan's interest. I expect him to first 'do something' about Manbij, Ayn al-Arab/Kobane and Ayn al-Isa. And then continue in similar, small steps, until there's a 20km wide buffer zone between the PKK and Türkye.
....and in general, the PKK is then going to finish itself on its own. Because it's not from Syria, and because it's terror and idiotic Marxist indoctriation do not work in Syria, but are only provoking ever more local insurgencies.
Thank you, but what about the Iran and the needed 'land bridge' to the Lebanon, if it is needed at all?
AFAIK, CMO's point of view is: 'Assad first'. That's also why they're pushing so hard on Hama, not on Hmeymim, and why they're - contrary to the Türkye-supported SNA (Hawk Killis OR) - not messing around with the PKK.
And I find that logical. Once there's no Assad, the Russians have no excuse to remain in the country; nobody invited the IRGC any more either, and the PKK would lose its third most-important supporter, too (historically: Assadism is its second most-important supporter, but then came the USA).
Who is the most-important supporter of PKK if US and Assad are 2 and 3?
Ok, answered in the next day's article. 1st is US, Assad is 3rd. But not clear who is the 2nd, Russia or IRGC?
USA, Russia, and Assad. Moscow is supporting the PKK already since its establishment in 1986. Assad followed closely second. Since 2015, the USA are the primary supporter.
Top class reporting. Truly the one and only...
Thx.
Ty ty for the info …at least I can make more sense of parties involved and who what where. I really appreciate it.
It's incredible, dozen Su-24 have been captured in Syria. It's time to start negotiations with the rebels how to receive at least six of them, even in poor condition. Ukraine needs them.
Sorry, no Su-24s were captured. Only L-39s, and few derelict MiG-23MLD/UBs.
Su-24s are based at the T-4/Tiyas AB: insurgents are still some 150-200km away from there.
Thank you Tom. After reading your report, a question arose. To what extent do the Assadists - the Syrian army, the Iranians and the Russians interact with each other? Do they have separate sectors on the front line or mixed battle formations?
Sometimes (especially when they're superior in numbers and fire-power) they're working closely together, but most of the times the Russians are trying to keep the IRGC away from the Assadists.
Any chance of that Podlet radar being shipped to another desert, half a world away? cough Nevada cough
Also, in the SyAAF inventory you did not mention the MiG-29s. Are they out of service?
No way. Yesterday, the Primitives in the Pentagon declared the CMO for 'jihadists' again.
Re. MiG-29s: they're next to never used for ground attacks, and thus 'irrelevant'.
It is nice to see Syrians and Ukrainians working together. Even in a small and punctual collaboration.
Read about aliances in thos area is very interesting and depresing at the same time. Thanks Tom Cooper, for your knowledge!
"over the last 5-6 years, Jowlani has crystalised a new doctrine." Absolutely true. However, how it happened that seasoned jihadist turned into the moderate oppositionist, switching from Jihad worldwide to Syria united? What made him "recover his sight"? The answer is well-known for those who can google. For the last 5 years British and US envoys (read intel services) are visiting him regularly, even bringing media to interview him, with the ultimate target to take him out from the official terrorist lists. In exchange, he became a puppet in certain hands. Must admit, he plays his role brilliantly, even Tom "bought' it.
😂🤖
If you had actually read the above post, you would have found out that Jowlani was never a "jihadist," to begin with.
Just one of many pious Syrian Sunni Muslims who were imprisoned by the Assadists and then extremized in their prisons.
Of course, if you ignore what I post, then all explanations are in vain (and, certainly enough, to people like you, I start sounding like a "jihadist supporter"). That's the point at which I start to consider the easiest option: click ignore / ban.: if people do not read (or do not comprehend what they read), but come here to post their prejudice and guessing, there's no point in running the entire blog.
Tom, it's not difficult to find details of Jowlani "career path". He was never in prison in Syria (his father was though). He was born in Saudi Arabia, then as a kid returned with his family to Syria (lived in the prestigious Mazzeh part of Damascus) and stayed there peacefullly tilll....US invasion to Iraq. There he went to fight for AQ. In 2006 he was captured by US troops and was in prison for 5 years.
And then the most interesting thing happened. He was released in 2011 and instantly went to Syrian war (what a happy coincidence). Most likely CIA asset by that time. In Syria became a leader of al-Nusra, targeting Alawites, Shia, and etc, but not Western forces. In 2017 broke relations with AQ and started his "legalisation". A perfect work of US and UK intel services. The picture is very clear.
Re. the IRGC and Hamas: I can definitely believe they are fickle friends. An organization with probably the greatest amount of experience running insurgencies in the world, and which seems to prefer to keep things below the threshold of full scale conflict, probably wouldn't have advised doing the (in hindsight) rather stupid attacks of October 7th... But I'm thinking the IRGC doesn't have to be a faithful friend of Hamas to be the most capable foe of Israel.
Ideologically, it's making no sense. Hamas = Muslim Brotherhood, one sort of Islamo-Fascists; IRGC = Twelver Shi'a, another sort of Islamo-Fascists. The two are absolutely non-compatible (or as compatible as Communism and Nazism).
....which is also why I'm not buying all the claims about 'Iranian support'.
Ironically, the mass of authoritiative Israeli assessments is supporting my conclusions.
Tom,
Regarding that recently captured "advanced 48Y6-K1 Podlet" radar, is it modern enough that the CMO could offer access to the US for deep analysis in exchange for, e.g., refraining from undermining the new "revolution"?
Thanks for the update and the "scorecard" and "flag identification IFF" exercise Tom. The heavy disinformation on what a jihadist/AQ terrorist and others is what is driving some of the public narratives, and you "shot down" literally the BS. Waiting for more updates on the Syrian uncivil Civil War( started on 2011-2012) to finish and for the Syrians to have a country again. (Which will take some time)