Can only add that against the 'pairing' Netanyahu-Putin - both of whom have Trump 'by his guts' (or at least his diapers) - Zelensky with his school-boy politics, and his wannabe-James Bond, Budanov, are standing no trace of chance.
as you say: https://x.com/i/status/1866035894169346513 this is part of some intervew with Arestovich, with his prediction. And my prediction is that Netanyahu is going the way: 1) destroy the SSG/HTS government with bombing campain, then 2) occupy large parts of land between Golan and Damascus along border with lebanon (to endanger any Hezbollah defence from left flank) and 3) resettle Druze to Golan area to have own loyal Buffer zone in syria.
why would Israel want to destroy the SSG/HTS government? It's not even in play at the Great Power poker table, yet. Israel can set up a win-win by locking up some land and sitting at the table with a big stack of chips.
Probably nothing. There's just a very large number of Russian Jews in Israel and quite a few Jews in the Russian financial sector. That's why, despite Russians being overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian, the government dances on the fence.
Russia needs US to drop Ukraine and normalize relations. Syria, Tartus, etc are a good price for this. They are basically sink holes of money and equipment, sources of friction with Turkey, Israel. Benefits are very limited.
AIPAC controls Washington and can closely steer US policy into rapprochment with Russia. The question is if Israel will keep its word.
"Security interests" is such a placeholder, you can take anything and call it "security interest", like never replacing the leader is clearly considered such an interest through the logic you described. Whatever are those "interests" are, if the forever-leader is supposedly the best at guarding them then his power is the #1 interest without ever even specifying what is that he's that good at. It's a tautology.
You're confusing cause and effect. When someone is really good, people re-elect or otherwise keep them in power. There are other ways to stay in power and those don't become good through experience. Putin, to give a trivial example, is horrible at his job -- carte blanche with amazing starting point for growth and resources and after his rule people are running from the country which is now closer to falling apart than it ever was.
For me it looks to big conspiracy. Putin now looks as idiot-looser but he is a dictator and to survive he must looks strong. Till Asad was looking strong everything was OK, after some first looses it was quick. Nobody knows how long wil Netanjahu lead Izrael and nobody knows what will Trump do. Some people thinks that they knows, but he is unpredictable. So loosing good logistic point, image for something in question??? Too complicated and very unsure. Yes at the end of Asad there can be some talks and deals, but i don;t believe it was Putins plan from beginning. There was still option that Asad will receive help from Iran or insrugurent will be defetead or stopped at Allepo or Hama. If yes and Iran will see an oportunity to get back in Syria and kick russia out... too many things to can get another direction.
Yep, Netanjahu made deal with Putin already: not sending arms and ammo to Ukraine. That's all. Israelis had many spies in Syria by their own. That's also why they blasted Syrian intelligence buildings. Why Putin would nuke all relations with Iran when Iran saved him from defeat in Ukraine?
What is possible Israelis bribed some Russian officer, but without Putin knowledge.
"Another thingy important to keep in mind considering it’s now clear that the Russians and the Israelis were all the time in touch"
Certain people get very, very mad when I say nuclear powers are in constant communication with each other, and every publicly announced move and escalation was previously discussed privately. The "absolute good versus absolute evil" narrative is simpler and more comforting.
> The "absolute good versus absolute evil" narrative is simpler and more comforting.
It also only doesn't really exist: what you described is what vast majority of people everywhere think and the default opinion everywhere including all mainstream and alt media. You're expressing the most mid opinions acting like they're not.
Correction: pure good vs poor evil narrative exists in Russia and also about Israel in some quarters.
It really depends on the echo chamber. I get dozens of these people every week. It's the coastal libtards who thinks Trump is going to implement "Project 2025" and Putin rigs US election with the gosuslugi phone app.
Tom can you explain Jolani not even making a statement against the Israeli strikes? Not saying he's an agent or whatever, but it seems like a bad look. The UN and foreign countries have condemned the invasion faster. My fear is that, rather than being an agent, he has Zelensky Syndrome and thinks that by just trying to have good PR with the West they won't screw you over.
because it doesn't matter if Isreal occupies 2 or 6 villages if he can't get an international recognized government together. And All those weapons Isreal destroyed are not only denied to him but to any other actor in Syria.
What would be the point? It seems to me any rational person can see Israel is not ever going to un annex the Golan and if Israel wants a buffer for it there not anything he can do about in the world that is. So why waste time and look weak. Guy needs to deliver a stable government to the largest amount of Syria he can ASAP. Whatever Trump's policy is on any given day it does seem clear he loves him some Bibi run Israel and is likely to bail on US troops in Syria and thus the Kurds. I would think the conclusion is deal publically with with any ISIS remains, ignore Israel and likely the Kurds lose their big outside supporter, and maybe Jared shows up to put the seal of Trump approval on Gulf reconstruction money.
As mentioned by Tobi and Klosp above, and me in the feature yesterday, he's explained that - essentially - Syria is in no position to go fighting 'another war' (with Israel).
He sees his task in organising functioning authorities, helping dozens (if not hundreds) of thousands of detainees liberated the last few days, returning millions of refugees and IDPs to their homes, providing humanitarian aid to them. organising a unified government, providing basic services, getting the economy back to operations, creating a unified army (so much so, yesterday he met all the leaders of the insurgency in the south, including one of worst turncoats of Syria ever... but, what shall Jowlani do in his position?) etc., etc., etc.
And, all of that 'pronto'.
By now it's obvious: he's pragamatic enough to know that otherwise, people are going to start complaining and then turning against him, foreign actors are going to recover from the shock caused by the downfall of Assadism and start messing around, and then it's going to start all over again...
I completely see your point. However, I would like to point out that Zelensky, when he first came into office, also tried to run on peace and reconciliation. In the end war was forced upon Ukraine, no matter if Ukraine was prepared for it or not. Israel does not stop when it believes no one will hold it back, exactly like Russia. There may be a point at which Syria is forced into confrontation whether it likes it or not.
Just that Zelensky didn't inherit a completely bombed out country, where next to nothing but little shops and few banks are still working, and the Daesh is at large...
These sound to me like facts compatible with what some high profile Assadists, such as Vanessa Beeley, are quietly claiming, namely that Assad was a quid pro quo agreed with Trump for giving away Eastern Ukraine. Trump being who he is, this is naturally compatible with Israeli aims. But no-one on the "left" (the Putin/Ba'ath/IRGC left anyway) wants to admit it. Just as no-one in the rebel camp wants to admit Netanyahu was obviously going to take advantage of this situation.
What's interesting, assuming the truth of any of these conspiracy theories, is what they'll do to the Russia-Iran relationship. If Tom is right and the new guard IRGC had had it with Assad, perhaps not a lot. But I still don't see why losing the contiguity of the "Shi'a Crescent" isn't a major loss. Putin might also look diminished for having had to cut a deal at all.
Iran's will to self sufficiency in its defense industrial base is a will not to have 4.5/5th generation fighters. I would be surprised if Putin doesn't deliver the Su-35s after this calamity. The IRIAF can't keep operating Vietnam-era hardware much longer. Absent the Su-35 maybe the IRIAF will just be wound down?
NB. Speaking as a wargamer and flight simm'er, any thoughts about what the IRIAF's tactical employment of F-14As, F-4Es, MiG-29As, Su-24s or F-5s(!) would actually look like in a hot war in 2025 from the guru himself would be pure gold. Especially given the IRGC's plethora of SAMs and ballistic missile strike options..
Thanks for your writings. I'm always curious reading them.
A bit off-topic. I used to sympathise with the kurdish struggle in syria, but you've stated a lot of critique on them in your last few pieces. Can you provide me some good sources or background about kurdish politics in syria, so i can inform myself better. I need to fill that gap.
I can't go into 'backgrounds and context' of the 'Kurdish question' the way I would like: I do not feel I know enough about it. Actually, have asked a certain author to write us a book to this topic for the Middle East@War series, years ago, but: he's received death threats both from the Türkish authorities and the PKK, and this (highly promising) project was abandoned.
Sure, I have covered the Iraqi Kurds quite a lot in books about the Iraqi Air Force (because this was fighting repeated Kurdish uprisings ever since it was established), and then in books about Iran-Iraq War, but my impression is that 'this is a completely different topic than "the Kurds in Syria"' (even though, so I'm sure, the PKK would differ).
So, all I can offer are 1st-hand-experiences from own research in Syria (including contacts to a number of PKK/PYD/YPG-commanders as of 2014-2015), and notes based on contemporary reporting about developments in the north-east of the country, back in 2011-2017. Essentially, these are 'in agreement' to what can be found (for example) here: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/fractious-politics-syrias-kurds - which is that there used to be 13-14 different Kurdish parties as of 2011-2012, most of them led by a single decision-maker, and most of them 'in line' (if not completely in agreement) with the KDP of Iraq (which, as the Americans have 'discovered' a few years ago, is actually also led by single decision-maker, and not the least 'democratic').
And then came the PKK (which took over the control in three enclaves along the border to Türkiye, and that in agreement with the Assadists, its long-time supporters), and 'puff': 'all of a sudden' there were no other Kurdish parties in Syria left.
At the time, a small number of articles was published, detailing how the PKK (aka 'PYD') either assassinated or forced into exile all the leaders of other Kurdish parties. There followed 2-3 articles about ethnic cleansings and re-education of local Arabs, and then everything of that was muted when the Daesh appeared on the scene, in 2013-2014 (because the 'good and brave' Kurds 'fought the IS' and 'nobody else did that', indeed: local Arabs were all bunched into 'ISIS').
My understanding is that the things in NE Syria didn't get any better ever since (https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/10/02/northeast-syria-military-recruitment-children-persists) - which is why I was not the least surprised to hear about an anti-PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-uprising all along the Euphrates of the last few days. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised this to be followed by a collapse of that conglomerate's regime north of the Euphrates, too (except they've ethnically cleansed the mass of Sunni Arabs from there, of course).
most probably: https://x.com/i/status/1866035894169346513 that Trump woud be pushed strongly, by Netanyahu & Orban, to press Ukraine into capitulation by 20-25th January.
...and both have Trump by his guts (or his diapers)... (Putin because Trump was money-laundering for the FSB all through the 1990s and 2000s; Netanyahu because he really controls - and has said so, 'privately', on a number of occassions - the Congress and the White House).
...and Musk is a big Putin-fan, too.
What kind of 'chances' has anybody - not only Trump, but also all of the EU, plus that amateur Zelensky - got against that constellation?
The coup attempt by IGRC forces against Assad was news to me. A decline in the relationship with Iran certainly helps explain why the regime toppled so quickly, ie Assad couldn’t call on Hezbollah to ensure his troops would behave (just as Putin uses multiple layers of troops of increasing loyalty in Ukraine to ensure the cannon fodder at the pointy end of the spear doesn’t desert either).
All the above doesn’t quite explain a new axis of communication and coordination between Putin and Bibi. Russia is getting zero out of the present change of government unless the new government allows its continued presence in Syria. Meanwhile, Bibi’s crew is occupying and demolishing all the gear, institutions, etc. In Syria it thinks it can get away with. That further puts Russias presence in Syria at risk, no?
With the benefit of hindsight, a coup by the IGRC makes sense in the context of how bad things had gotten for the populace under Assad. Presumably, the IGRC correctly figured out that a population that only gets power for an hour a day, etc is unlikely to support their government much longer. The IGRC didn’t coup out of love for the Syrians either, they simply would have wanted to ensure the pipeline for arms smuggling to Lebanon was not going to break down.
Eventually, the Iranians gave up trying. Have turned to China instead. Have covered this in several features over the last year (see links above).
Point is: all the stories about 'alliance' between Moscow and Tehran, and Iran being 'crucial arms/ammo source' for Russia - are hogwash.
Finally: Putin continued screwing up the IRGC at every opportunity - in ways simply unknown in the West. For example: until today, he wouldn't let the Iranians send their oil/gas exploration ships to the Caspian Sea, via the system of rivers and channels in Russia (because of this, the Iranian oil/gas exploration and exploitation in that area remains massively underdeveloped); he did everything in his powers to spoil an improvement in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran etc., etc., etc.
And the supporters of this idiot and eternal bankrupt believe that Trump is a successful businessman and billionaire, although no one can prove this when asked about it. The fact that he is an eternal debtor who destroyed his father's business and his other businesses and was bankrupt at least 6 times is a fact. The fact that Kremlin oligarchs such as Putin's Jewish friend Oleg Deripaska and others bought up the real estate of Trump's companies at mega inflated prices and thus gave him bribes is also a fact. To be honest, any fool could take money from the special services of other countries, go bankrupt and take a bribe again, and then consider himself successful. The fact that Jared Kushner and his father were financial fraudsters and found a family of the same fraudsters is also a fact. The fact that Putin’s Jewish friend Yuri Milner invested money in the company of Trump’s son-in-law is also a fact. In other words, the USA is now ruled by financial fraudsters, criminal syndicates that are financially connected to the Kremlin oligarchs. And the whole problem is that someone believes him. They believe in God. This is fanaticism. A mob of idiots found themselves an equally idiot to simply worship. And this crowd is not even interested in the facts that show that he is just an idiot and a looter.
The biggest issue of the recent events in Syria is the lack of activity from Iran and its proxies. Ok, Hezbollah in Lebanon was exausted by Israel, but there are Iraqi proxies and IRGG troops. Actually, eveything was supposed to be like 10 years ago, meaning VKS and SyAAF are bombing, while "Iranian" troops are fighting on the ground. The latter did not happen. To me the reason is clear - the hardliner died in aircrash and something dramatically changed in Iranian concept.
I do like Tom's idea about conspiracy, but my imho it's necessary to "dig" in Tehran.
If speaking rationally - yes, but for any ME regime to "save face" is more important. So, logic is always secondary.
And costs wise it was not a challenge. Insurgents were not that numerous. 50 k or even 30 k of the "Iranian" troops will be more than enough. Shia fighters are very well motivated. VKS was starting to attack insurgent columns (saw a fresh video of Su-25 precisely hitting a column of rebels with unguided missiles), several successful hits were recorded near Aleppo. That means that at least VKS was not a part of undercarpet game. But Iranians did not appear....
Danke schön Tom! I came across some disturbing news from unreliable sources claiming that 'Shadi Al-Waisi, the new Minister of Justice in Syria,' is introducing Sharia law in Aleppo. Do you have any contacts or information to verify whether this is true or false?
Yes, that's (yet another, and primitive) hoax by Assadists and IRGC-shills in the social media. I'm too lazy to search for links again, but this has been de-bunked by several people with serious knowledge about Syria, meanwhile.
Excellent coverage of the Russia-Israel-Assad-Iran dynamic. But that's just a small piece of Israeli - RF relationship. It's not just political, but quite personal - about 1/5th of Israelis speak Russian and probably half of those go back and forth regularly. Israel is also the "emergency window to the West" for many Russian elites, who can get the two most important things in life there - Western health care and Western banking services (banking has become harder recently). In exchange, Russia gladly allows Israel to use RF and the "near abroad" for their own purposes (as one example, Mossad wouldn't have a free hand to operate out of Azerbaijan without both RF and Turkiy approval). RF also gladly allowed Israel to bomb the shit out of anything they wanted to in Syria, bc it weakened Iran whom RF viewed as something between a really annoying friend and an adversary. Just scratches the surface of the relationship, and it's not as friendly as the above would suggest-the majority of Russian speakers in Israel are Soviet refugees and have no love lost for the Chekists in power in RF, but between cultural affinity and shared interests, the relationship is deeper than it looks on the surface.
Tbh even without material proof, there is an obvious convergence of interest between Russia and Israel. Ot can be seen every day with Israelis soldiers flooding the internet with footage of them annihilating everything in Palestine, Lebanon and now Syria. Often shooting or destroying building just for fun.
The more Israelis go wildling across the Middle East destroying everything in the region, the more they divert Western money and weapons and thus exacerbates the shortage of both in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Putin and Netanyahou have been around for so long. They are bounded to have noticed it.
Just like Putin immediately identified his interest in solidifying the US sponsored PKK statelet on the border of Turkey and did his best to prop it further even when the Assad regime was collapsing during its last days (cf. the bombing of SNA forces in North Aleppo while the rebels were pushing to Homs and Damascus).
We are already watching the next play :
- Israel is pushing the US the stand firm along the PKK against Turkey and the new Syrian government to pressure Ankara and facilite its conquest of South Syria by breaking appart the country.
- Russia might keep its military bases due to the new Syrian government urgent need to appease every international actor and specially the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. As well as the vain hope Russia may curb Israeli expansionism in the country (it wont). Paradoxical the fall of Assad might be good news for Russia by drastically reducing the cost of its power projection in Syria. The question will be how much of the juicy contracts it made with Assad to exploit the natural ressources in the Badiya Moscow will be able to keep.
- In the middle, the idiotic Americans will be happy to spend money to fuel Israel and Russia imperialism. All too happy that Washington will be able to continue to kill brown skin people in the MENA. Doing so they will continue to break appart NATO (re Turkey), fail to support Ukraine properly and exhaust the West ressources in the process.
As usual our stupid Western leaders believe they are the smart guys while in reality Netanyahou and Putin run circles around them.
On a side note while we are discussing conspiracies : There is currently a lot of Assad regime documents being uncovered. Including lots of intriguing one like this one from an intelligence service about how the regime should repress the protests of early 2011.
Notably, all of the tricks and play it describe on how to shape public opinion in the country and across the world came to be and were extremely successful.
When the regime fell, Damascus was left for an entire day without authority until the CMO forces arrived. Thus the government agencies including the political police building were ransacked without anybody to preserve the valuable archives.
The day after CMO formally took over, Israel immediately targeted such buildings without military values but full of intelligence and historic values.
Your articles on Syria are very smooth and a fun reas. You write it in a very different way compared with your Ukraine articles, which are jaded and this grates on the reader...
I didn’t understand the last catch, what has Israel offered Russia in return?
I do not know, obviously.
Can only add that against the 'pairing' Netanyahu-Putin - both of whom have Trump 'by his guts' (or at least his diapers) - Zelensky with his school-boy politics, and his wannabe-James Bond, Budanov, are standing no trace of chance.
as you say: https://x.com/i/status/1866035894169346513 this is part of some intervew with Arestovich, with his prediction. And my prediction is that Netanyahu is going the way: 1) destroy the SSG/HTS government with bombing campain, then 2) occupy large parts of land between Golan and Damascus along border with lebanon (to endanger any Hezbollah defence from left flank) and 3) resettle Druze to Golan area to have own loyal Buffer zone in syria.
why would Israel want to destroy the SSG/HTS government? It's not even in play at the Great Power poker table, yet. Israel can set up a win-win by locking up some land and sitting at the table with a big stack of chips.
Probably nothing. There's just a very large number of Russian Jews in Israel and quite a few Jews in the Russian financial sector. That's why, despite Russians being overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian, the government dances on the fence.
Russia needs US to drop Ukraine and normalize relations. Syria, Tartus, etc are a good price for this. They are basically sink holes of money and equipment, sources of friction with Turkey, Israel. Benefits are very limited.
AIPAC controls Washington and can closely steer US policy into rapprochment with Russia. The question is if Israel will keep its word.
The Russians, Israelis and Turks manage to work together despite often conflicting positions.
Their respective leaders have been in power for many years and make average Western politicians look like children in comparison.
Children ruled by their emotions and not by the security interests of their respective countries.
"Security interests" is such a placeholder, you can take anything and call it "security interest", like never replacing the leader is clearly considered such an interest through the logic you described. Whatever are those "interests" are, if the forever-leader is supposedly the best at guarding them then his power is the #1 interest without ever even specifying what is that he's that good at. It's a tautology.
You're meshing different concepts together.
The amount of years someone is in power and security interests.
You probably dislike Bibi and/or Erdogan and Putin so you cobble it up in a confusing tangle.
Lets take another leader who you maybe like more than those guys.
Merkel was chancellor for like 16 years. I'd say she is much more experienced and
better at being a chancellor than Scholz who is already on his way out.
There are many such examples around the world. Lee Kuan Yew comes to mind.
You're confusing cause and effect. When someone is really good, people re-elect or otherwise keep them in power. There are other ways to stay in power and those don't become good through experience. Putin, to give a trivial example, is horrible at his job -- carte blanche with amazing starting point for growth and resources and after his rule people are running from the country which is now closer to falling apart than it ever was.
Putin is not at all a trivial example.
I meant it in the sense that he fits the description but also very clearly not succeeding in "security interests".
@ "not succeeding in "security interests""
His success is in his job security. So far he keeps his job.
Russia has legitimate security concerns regarding NATO.
The fact that you and most NATO countries choose to dismiss it as nonsense does not change that.
Ukraine war was decades in the making. Years before Putin came to power.
Western politicians and media understood that well.
For example, this discussion is from 1994.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8
For me it looks to big conspiracy. Putin now looks as idiot-looser but he is a dictator and to survive he must looks strong. Till Asad was looking strong everything was OK, after some first looses it was quick. Nobody knows how long wil Netanjahu lead Izrael and nobody knows what will Trump do. Some people thinks that they knows, but he is unpredictable. So loosing good logistic point, image for something in question??? Too complicated and very unsure. Yes at the end of Asad there can be some talks and deals, but i don;t believe it was Putins plan from beginning. There was still option that Asad will receive help from Iran or insrugurent will be defetead or stopped at Allepo or Hama. If yes and Iran will see an oportunity to get back in Syria and kick russia out... too many things to can get another direction.
Yep, Netanjahu made deal with Putin already: not sending arms and ammo to Ukraine. That's all. Israelis had many spies in Syria by their own. That's also why they blasted Syrian intelligence buildings. Why Putin would nuke all relations with Iran when Iran saved him from defeat in Ukraine?
What is possible Israelis bribed some Russian officer, but without Putin knowledge.
"Another thingy important to keep in mind considering it’s now clear that the Russians and the Israelis were all the time in touch"
Certain people get very, very mad when I say nuclear powers are in constant communication with each other, and every publicly announced move and escalation was previously discussed privately. The "absolute good versus absolute evil" narrative is simpler and more comforting.
> The "absolute good versus absolute evil" narrative is simpler and more comforting.
It also only doesn't really exist: what you described is what vast majority of people everywhere think and the default opinion everywhere including all mainstream and alt media. You're expressing the most mid opinions acting like they're not.
Correction: pure good vs poor evil narrative exists in Russia and also about Israel in some quarters.
It really depends on the echo chamber. I get dozens of these people every week. It's the coastal libtards who thinks Trump is going to implement "Project 2025" and Putin rigs US election with the gosuslugi phone app.
Tom can you explain Jolani not even making a statement against the Israeli strikes? Not saying he's an agent or whatever, but it seems like a bad look. The UN and foreign countries have condemned the invasion faster. My fear is that, rather than being an agent, he has Zelensky Syndrome and thinks that by just trying to have good PR with the West they won't screw you over.
because it doesn't matter if Isreal occupies 2 or 6 villages if he can't get an international recognized government together. And All those weapons Isreal destroyed are not only denied to him but to any other actor in Syria.
What would be the point? It seems to me any rational person can see Israel is not ever going to un annex the Golan and if Israel wants a buffer for it there not anything he can do about in the world that is. So why waste time and look weak. Guy needs to deliver a stable government to the largest amount of Syria he can ASAP. Whatever Trump's policy is on any given day it does seem clear he loves him some Bibi run Israel and is likely to bail on US troops in Syria and thus the Kurds. I would think the conclusion is deal publically with with any ISIS remains, ignore Israel and likely the Kurds lose their big outside supporter, and maybe Jared shows up to put the seal of Trump approval on Gulf reconstruction money.
As mentioned by Tobi and Klosp above, and me in the feature yesterday, he's explained that - essentially - Syria is in no position to go fighting 'another war' (with Israel).
He sees his task in organising functioning authorities, helping dozens (if not hundreds) of thousands of detainees liberated the last few days, returning millions of refugees and IDPs to their homes, providing humanitarian aid to them. organising a unified government, providing basic services, getting the economy back to operations, creating a unified army (so much so, yesterday he met all the leaders of the insurgency in the south, including one of worst turncoats of Syria ever... but, what shall Jowlani do in his position?) etc., etc., etc.
And, all of that 'pronto'.
By now it's obvious: he's pragamatic enough to know that otherwise, people are going to start complaining and then turning against him, foreign actors are going to recover from the shock caused by the downfall of Assadism and start messing around, and then it's going to start all over again...
I completely see your point. However, I would like to point out that Zelensky, when he first came into office, also tried to run on peace and reconciliation. In the end war was forced upon Ukraine, no matter if Ukraine was prepared for it or not. Israel does not stop when it believes no one will hold it back, exactly like Russia. There may be a point at which Syria is forced into confrontation whether it likes it or not.
Just that Zelensky didn't inherit a completely bombed out country, where next to nothing but little shops and few banks are still working, and the Daesh is at large...
These sound to me like facts compatible with what some high profile Assadists, such as Vanessa Beeley, are quietly claiming, namely that Assad was a quid pro quo agreed with Trump for giving away Eastern Ukraine. Trump being who he is, this is naturally compatible with Israeli aims. But no-one on the "left" (the Putin/Ba'ath/IRGC left anyway) wants to admit it. Just as no-one in the rebel camp wants to admit Netanyahu was obviously going to take advantage of this situation.
What's interesting, assuming the truth of any of these conspiracy theories, is what they'll do to the Russia-Iran relationship. If Tom is right and the new guard IRGC had had it with Assad, perhaps not a lot. But I still don't see why losing the contiguity of the "Shi'a Crescent" isn't a major loss. Putin might also look diminished for having had to cut a deal at all.
Just one note: contrary to what is 'the West' (and especially the USA) claiming, there's no 'alliance' between Iran and Russia.
Have explained that here:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-mess-of-russo-iranian-arms-deals
and here:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-mess-of-russo-iranian-arms-deals-781
I recall them well.
Iran's will to self sufficiency in its defense industrial base is a will not to have 4.5/5th generation fighters. I would be surprised if Putin doesn't deliver the Su-35s after this calamity. The IRIAF can't keep operating Vietnam-era hardware much longer. Absent the Su-35 maybe the IRIAF will just be wound down?
NB. Speaking as a wargamer and flight simm'er, any thoughts about what the IRIAF's tactical employment of F-14As, F-4Es, MiG-29As, Su-24s or F-5s(!) would actually look like in a hot war in 2025 from the guru himself would be pure gold. Especially given the IRGC's plethora of SAMs and ballistic missile strike options..
Maybe the contiguity of the Shi'a Crescent is going to be on the table during the formation of the new Syrian government.
Thanks for your writings. I'm always curious reading them.
A bit off-topic. I used to sympathise with the kurdish struggle in syria, but you've stated a lot of critique on them in your last few pieces. Can you provide me some good sources or background about kurdish politics in syria, so i can inform myself better. I need to fill that gap.
Thanks
Cool question, thanks!
I can't go into 'backgrounds and context' of the 'Kurdish question' the way I would like: I do not feel I know enough about it. Actually, have asked a certain author to write us a book to this topic for the Middle East@War series, years ago, but: he's received death threats both from the Türkish authorities and the PKK, and this (highly promising) project was abandoned.
Sure, I have covered the Iraqi Kurds quite a lot in books about the Iraqi Air Force (because this was fighting repeated Kurdish uprisings ever since it was established), and then in books about Iran-Iraq War, but my impression is that 'this is a completely different topic than "the Kurds in Syria"' (even though, so I'm sure, the PKK would differ).
So, all I can offer are 1st-hand-experiences from own research in Syria (including contacts to a number of PKK/PYD/YPG-commanders as of 2014-2015), and notes based on contemporary reporting about developments in the north-east of the country, back in 2011-2017. Essentially, these are 'in agreement' to what can be found (for example) here: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/fractious-politics-syrias-kurds - which is that there used to be 13-14 different Kurdish parties as of 2011-2012, most of them led by a single decision-maker, and most of them 'in line' (if not completely in agreement) with the KDP of Iraq (which, as the Americans have 'discovered' a few years ago, is actually also led by single decision-maker, and not the least 'democratic').
And then came the PKK (which took over the control in three enclaves along the border to Türkiye, and that in agreement with the Assadists, its long-time supporters), and 'puff': 'all of a sudden' there were no other Kurdish parties in Syria left.
At the time, a small number of articles was published, detailing how the PKK (aka 'PYD') either assassinated or forced into exile all the leaders of other Kurdish parties. There followed 2-3 articles about ethnic cleansings and re-education of local Arabs, and then everything of that was muted when the Daesh appeared on the scene, in 2013-2014 (because the 'good and brave' Kurds 'fought the IS' and 'nobody else did that', indeed: local Arabs were all bunched into 'ISIS').
Merely HR groups (like the HRW: https://www.hrw.org/report/2014/06/19/under-kurdish-rule/abuses-pyd-run-enclaves-syria) and occassional academics (https://politicstoday.org/reign-of-terror-in-northern-syria-displacement-routine-by-the-pyd/) would, sometimes, publish anything 'critical' of the 'PYD' ever since. Even the fact the PKK-leadership publicly supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expressed its hopes this might quickly bring down the (quote) 'puppet-regime in Kyiv' (https://www.rudaw.net/turkish/kurdistan/010320223), was entirely ignored in 'the Western' public.
My understanding is that the things in NE Syria didn't get any better ever since (https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/10/02/northeast-syria-military-recruitment-children-persists) - which is why I was not the least surprised to hear about an anti-PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-uprising all along the Euphrates of the last few days. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised this to be followed by a collapse of that conglomerate's regime north of the Euphrates, too (except they've ethnically cleansed the mass of Sunni Arabs from there, of course).
"And, in such a case… well, dear Ukrainians: I cannot but recommend you to wear something particularly warm, both this winter and the next spring."
Can someone explain what does he means with this statement ?
most probably: https://x.com/i/status/1866035894169346513 that Trump woud be pushed strongly, by Netanyahu & Orban, to press Ukraine into capitulation by 20-25th January.
Think about it, mate:
- Putin = ex-FSB
- Netanyahu = ex-special forces (linked to AMMAN)
...and both have Trump by his guts (or his diapers)... (Putin because Trump was money-laundering for the FSB all through the 1990s and 2000s; Netanyahu because he really controls - and has said so, 'privately', on a number of occassions - the Congress and the White House).
...and Musk is a big Putin-fan, too.
What kind of 'chances' has anybody - not only Trump, but also all of the EU, plus that amateur Zelensky - got against that constellation?
The coup attempt by IGRC forces against Assad was news to me. A decline in the relationship with Iran certainly helps explain why the regime toppled so quickly, ie Assad couldn’t call on Hezbollah to ensure his troops would behave (just as Putin uses multiple layers of troops of increasing loyalty in Ukraine to ensure the cannon fodder at the pointy end of the spear doesn’t desert either).
All the above doesn’t quite explain a new axis of communication and coordination between Putin and Bibi. Russia is getting zero out of the present change of government unless the new government allows its continued presence in Syria. Meanwhile, Bibi’s crew is occupying and demolishing all the gear, institutions, etc. In Syria it thinks it can get away with. That further puts Russias presence in Syria at risk, no?
With the benefit of hindsight, a coup by the IGRC makes sense in the context of how bad things had gotten for the populace under Assad. Presumably, the IGRC correctly figured out that a population that only gets power for an hour a day, etc is unlikely to support their government much longer. The IGRC didn’t coup out of love for the Syrians either, they simply would have wanted to ensure the pipeline for arms smuggling to Lebanon was not going to break down.
Re. coup/coup attempt/rumors about the coup, this was my resume about what was known at the time (Feb 2017: https://warisboring.com/iran-and-russia-are-apparently-fighting-each-other-in-syria/). Not much more surfaced ever since.
That said, I would like to stress: yes, Tehran did try to buy Russian weapons, about a dozen of times, back in the 1990s and 2000s, and the Russians screwed up the Iranians every time (see: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-mess-of-russo-iranian-arms-deals and https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-mess-of-russo-iranian-arms-deals-781). Yes, the IRGC did try to enter 'strategic alliance' with Putin, back in 2015, but Putin screwed up the IRGC, too.
Eventually, the Iranians gave up trying. Have turned to China instead. Have covered this in several features over the last year (see links above).
Point is: all the stories about 'alliance' between Moscow and Tehran, and Iran being 'crucial arms/ammo source' for Russia - are hogwash.
Finally: Putin continued screwing up the IRGC at every opportunity - in ways simply unknown in the West. For example: until today, he wouldn't let the Iranians send their oil/gas exploration ships to the Caspian Sea, via the system of rivers and channels in Russia (because of this, the Iranian oil/gas exploration and exploitation in that area remains massively underdeveloped); he did everything in his powers to spoil an improvement in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran etc., etc., etc.
Thank you!
The prospect of a deal between Putin and Netanyahu is simply appalling.
One devil is bad, ‘tis true
but when we face not one but two,
unknown horrors will surely brew.
(I just made that up).
Yup. It's scary. Especially considering both of them have Trump 'by his guts' (or diapers).
Not only that, but MAGA actually believes it's the other way round. They actually believe Trump will outsmart Putin.
Nobody can outsmart his bank... (and Trump was money-laundering for Putin all through the 1990s and 2000s).
And the supporters of this idiot and eternal bankrupt believe that Trump is a successful businessman and billionaire, although no one can prove this when asked about it. The fact that he is an eternal debtor who destroyed his father's business and his other businesses and was bankrupt at least 6 times is a fact. The fact that Kremlin oligarchs such as Putin's Jewish friend Oleg Deripaska and others bought up the real estate of Trump's companies at mega inflated prices and thus gave him bribes is also a fact. To be honest, any fool could take money from the special services of other countries, go bankrupt and take a bribe again, and then consider himself successful. The fact that Jared Kushner and his father were financial fraudsters and found a family of the same fraudsters is also a fact. The fact that Putin’s Jewish friend Yuri Milner invested money in the company of Trump’s son-in-law is also a fact. In other words, the USA is now ruled by financial fraudsters, criminal syndicates that are financially connected to the Kremlin oligarchs. And the whole problem is that someone believes him. They believe in God. This is fanaticism. A mob of idiots found themselves an equally idiot to simply worship. And this crowd is not even interested in the facts that show that he is just an idiot and a looter.
Pretty well sums it up.
Ebrahim Raisi death is the most underestimated reason for the tectonic changes in Syria.
Sorry, for ask. How is this mr?
The biggest issue of the recent events in Syria is the lack of activity from Iran and its proxies. Ok, Hezbollah in Lebanon was exausted by Israel, but there are Iraqi proxies and IRGG troops. Actually, eveything was supposed to be like 10 years ago, meaning VKS and SyAAF are bombing, while "Iranian" troops are fighting on the ground. The latter did not happen. To me the reason is clear - the hardliner died in aircrash and something dramatically changed in Iranian concept.
I do like Tom's idea about conspiracy, but my imho it's necessary to "dig" in Tehran.
And the possibility of retreat from a lost cause?
If speaking rationally - yes, but for any ME regime to "save face" is more important. So, logic is always secondary.
And costs wise it was not a challenge. Insurgents were not that numerous. 50 k or even 30 k of the "Iranian" troops will be more than enough. Shia fighters are very well motivated. VKS was starting to attack insurgent columns (saw a fresh video of Su-25 precisely hitting a column of rebels with unguided missiles), several successful hits were recorded near Aleppo. That means that at least VKS was not a part of undercarpet game. But Iranians did not appear....
Danke schön Tom! I came across some disturbing news from unreliable sources claiming that 'Shadi Al-Waisi, the new Minister of Justice in Syria,' is introducing Sharia law in Aleppo. Do you have any contacts or information to verify whether this is true or false?
https://x.com/iraqschristians/status/1865769660240560250
Yes, that's (yet another, and primitive) hoax by Assadists and IRGC-shills in the social media. I'm too lazy to search for links again, but this has been de-bunked by several people with serious knowledge about Syria, meanwhile.
Excellent coverage of the Russia-Israel-Assad-Iran dynamic. But that's just a small piece of Israeli - RF relationship. It's not just political, but quite personal - about 1/5th of Israelis speak Russian and probably half of those go back and forth regularly. Israel is also the "emergency window to the West" for many Russian elites, who can get the two most important things in life there - Western health care and Western banking services (banking has become harder recently). In exchange, Russia gladly allows Israel to use RF and the "near abroad" for their own purposes (as one example, Mossad wouldn't have a free hand to operate out of Azerbaijan without both RF and Turkiy approval). RF also gladly allowed Israel to bomb the shit out of anything they wanted to in Syria, bc it weakened Iran whom RF viewed as something between a really annoying friend and an adversary. Just scratches the surface of the relationship, and it's not as friendly as the above would suggest-the majority of Russian speakers in Israel are Soviet refugees and have no love lost for the Chekists in power in RF, but between cultural affinity and shared interests, the relationship is deeper than it looks on the surface.
Tbh even without material proof, there is an obvious convergence of interest between Russia and Israel. Ot can be seen every day with Israelis soldiers flooding the internet with footage of them annihilating everything in Palestine, Lebanon and now Syria. Often shooting or destroying building just for fun.
The more Israelis go wildling across the Middle East destroying everything in the region, the more they divert Western money and weapons and thus exacerbates the shortage of both in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Putin and Netanyahou have been around for so long. They are bounded to have noticed it.
Just like Putin immediately identified his interest in solidifying the US sponsored PKK statelet on the border of Turkey and did his best to prop it further even when the Assad regime was collapsing during its last days (cf. the bombing of SNA forces in North Aleppo while the rebels were pushing to Homs and Damascus).
We are already watching the next play :
- Israel is pushing the US the stand firm along the PKK against Turkey and the new Syrian government to pressure Ankara and facilite its conquest of South Syria by breaking appart the country.
- Russia might keep its military bases due to the new Syrian government urgent need to appease every international actor and specially the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. As well as the vain hope Russia may curb Israeli expansionism in the country (it wont). Paradoxical the fall of Assad might be good news for Russia by drastically reducing the cost of its power projection in Syria. The question will be how much of the juicy contracts it made with Assad to exploit the natural ressources in the Badiya Moscow will be able to keep.
- In the middle, the idiotic Americans will be happy to spend money to fuel Israel and Russia imperialism. All too happy that Washington will be able to continue to kill brown skin people in the MENA. Doing so they will continue to break appart NATO (re Turkey), fail to support Ukraine properly and exhaust the West ressources in the process.
As usual our stupid Western leaders believe they are the smart guys while in reality Netanyahou and Putin run circles around them.
On a side note while we are discussing conspiracies : There is currently a lot of Assad regime documents being uncovered. Including lots of intriguing one like this one from an intelligence service about how the regime should repress the protests of early 2011.
https://x.com/MarxFemAvery/status/1866826284317433901
Notably, all of the tricks and play it describe on how to shape public opinion in the country and across the world came to be and were extremely successful.
When the regime fell, Damascus was left for an entire day without authority until the CMO forces arrived. Thus the government agencies including the political police building were ransacked without anybody to preserve the valuable archives.
The day after CMO formally took over, Israel immediately targeted such buildings without military values but full of intelligence and historic values.
Your articles on Syria are very smooth and a fun reas. You write it in a very different way compared with your Ukraine articles, which are jaded and this grates on the reader...
Either way, thanks for your work!
Yeah, the murky business between the leaders/states of Russia and Israeli I'm feeling good about your postulations.
Maybe Putin's cancer treatment(?) is the pre-payment for "without some sort of Netanyahu’s favour in return."?
Cheers.