Syria War, 12 December 2024: Conspiracies and Clues

Hi everybody!

Must admit, even I’m confused by certain of reports coming from Syria, meanwhile.

For example, in northern Syria…

The last two days, General Kurilla, commander of the US CENTCOM, has toured Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Some say that he has arranged a cease-fire between Türkiye and the US-supported PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF, but the CENTCOM did not issue any corresponding statements. Sure, the US troops have entered Raqqa, but yesterday in the morning, the Türkish air force flew another series of air strikes on the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-positions in northern Syria. Heaviest hit were the LaFarge cement factory between Ayn al-Arab/Kobane and Ayn al-Issa, and the building of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF’s General Security (read: intelligence & security service) in Raqqa.

BTW, the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF has captured four TELs for the 2K12 Kub (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SA-6 Gainful’) with (at least) 10 3M9M4 surface to air missiles in Dayr az-Zawr, and taken them away. Interestingly: these were not bombed out by the Israelis…?

Well, at least I haven’t seen any of associated 1S91 SURN fire-control radars (‘Straight Flush’): if they have not captured any, all the TELs and missiles are useless.

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Meanwhile, in the south-west, the Israelis are continuing their land grab and ethnic cleansing. Contrary to Netanyahu (sought by the ICC for crimes against humanity), who claimed this move was necessary to ‘protect Israel’, and ‘because terrorists were shooting at UN troops’, the Israelis report taking one Syrian military position after the other - without a single shot. Except when they’ve opened fire at an al-Arabiya TV-crew - which is meanwhile ‘classic behaviour’ by the IDF: they’re shooting at anybody they identify as ‘journalists’.

The IDF has moved to the Red Hills, outside Hader, demolishing Syrian defence positions in the process, and occupied a position outside al-Khashniyyeh, about 30km outside Damascus.

…and, they have ordered ‘evacuation’ of the al-Hamidiyah and al-Hurriya villages near Qunaitra

Of course, amid Jowlani’s declaration that Syria is not in condition to fight and there are more urgent issues (see the update from yesterday), all the possible MAGAs in the USA, not to talk about Assad- and IRGC-shills are now ‘complaining’ about his cooperation with Israel (indeed, that ‘HTS is welcoming Israel), and a betrayal of Syria. Actually, this is easily de-bunked, as nicely demonstrated in the Twitter/x-thread here. Similar is valid for claims according to which Jowlani is wearing an ‘Israeli- (or US-) made uniform’: actually - though in best traditions of all the possible other insurgents of the last 30-40 years - he’s wearing one made in the PR China (see: EmersonGear).

What is also of interest: if the Israelis have invaded Syria with the aim of cutting off any of ‘tunnels used to supply arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon’ - well, sorry, they’re neither bragging about having found any, nor is it likely to ever happen. Principally because it’s extremely unlikely that there are any under Jebel Sheikh (Mount Hermon). Actually, in such case Netanyahu would have to send his forces much deeper into Syria, all the way to the Qalamoun mountain range, north of Damascus (about 70km from where they are right now), where there are extensive tunnels, ending… nobody knows where. For all the claims about these housing ‘ballistic missiles for Hezbollah’, though: all that can be seen is construction equipment.

To make sure: yes, the main base of the (former) 155th Missile Brigade (the sole Assadist formation that used to operate ballistic missiles), in the Qutayfa area, used to have similar tunnels. However, Qutayfa is much closer to Damascus - and the base of the 155th was bombed out by the Israelis, the last few days (below two photos from 2020):

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On the contrary… and while I can very well understand all the possible conspiracy theories (as late Brigadier-General Ahmad Sadik Rushdie al-Astrabadi, former officer of the Iraqi Air Force Intelligence Directorate, tended to say: ‘…the contemporary history of the Middle East is the history of conspiracies’), if any kind of evidence for some sort of ‘clandestine cooperation’ has surfaced so far, then one for cooperation between the Russian Federation and Israel.

Few days ago, somebody there has entered some place in Damascus to find a document marked ‘Top Secret and Urgent’, detailing a ‘mechanism’ set up by the Russians (read: nearly certainly the GRU), to arrange communication between Israel and the Assadist Regime. Sadly, the same is covering only the period from around April and July 2023, while this ‘mechanism’ (i.e. a sort of ‘hot line’) must’ve existed since much earlier (probably since around 2015-2016, at least since around the ‘short war’ between Israel, Assadists and the IRGC, fought in February 2018).

Now, why have the Russians done that?

During the first year of its military intervention in Syria, back in 2015-2016, the Russians found themselves having no trace of clue about what is going on in the country, nor where. All they were able of concluding was that Assad was out of touch with reality, and having no armed forces to command. Moreover, their own operations were in complete disharmony with those of the IRGC’s- and thus Assadist forces. Even as of spring and summer 2016, each of three parties was fighting its own war. The situation might have culminated in the reported (but never substantiated) IRGC’s coup attempt against Bashar al-Assad, in January 2017. Apparently: the Iranians attempted to replace him by his brother Maher, but the Russians (i.e. the GRU-Spetsnaz) came in between…

Ever since, the Russians did their utmost to separate Assad from the IRGC. Was a ‘co-reason’ for their reform of the Assadist armed forces. See: re-organisation of dozens of disparate militias (many of these established by the IRGC as elements of the ‘National Defence Force’ and ‘Local Defence Force’) ‘back’ into the Syrian Arab Army.

This is becoming particularly interesting considering Assad’s actions of about the last 14-16 months: amid growing Israeli threats, he - gradually - curbed the flow of Iranian arms for Hezbollah in Lebanon, shut down the Houthi ‘embassy’ (or ‘office’) in Damascus, and ignored the Iranian warnings about the coming insurgent offensive. Indeed, through reading between the lines of dozens of different mainstream media reports, there are indications that by 1-6 December, he completely stopped cooperating with Tehran. And that although he was actually still dependent on the IRGC-support for survival of his regime. And, when he stopped cooperating with the IRGC, then the ‘young guard’ of the same - new commanders appointed instead of those shot away by the Israelis over the last 14 months, drew the only logical conclusion: why continuing to squander billions to support an idiot that’s not listening to them?

They’ve packed their stuff and started withdrawing: surviving Assadists are still complaining how they’ve been left down..

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Another thingy important to keep in mind considering it’s now clear that the Russians and the Israelis were all the time in touch: mind that the Israelis were after Nasrallah (former leader of Hezbollah) for decades, but never managed to assassinate him. They did manage to do so only by an air strike that was possible because they have tracked him down - as he was returning from a meeting in Damascus.

Can’t help it, but I would not the least be surprised if the Israelis did so on ‘tip’ from Moscow, i.e. the GRU or FSB (of course: on Putin’s order)…

If at least some of that is truth, then the result is an interesting ‘thesis’, if you like: the one that Putin - perhaps in collusion with Netanyahu (which wouldn’t be surprising, considering they’re business partners) - literally ‘torpedoed’ Assad by (successfully) distancing him from the IRGC.

Is certain to appear as an ‘own goal’ at the first look, but: mind that Putin remains preoccupied with Ukraine. Indeed, that is his ‘fateful affair’.

If so - and yes, I’m aware of the fact that this is nothing else but a guess - then he certainly did not tip the Israelis about Nasrallah without some sort of Netanyahu’s favour in return.

And, in such a case… well, dear Ukrainians: I cannot but recommend you to wear something particularly warm, both this winter and the next spring.