Tom, do you know the reaction of all the big regional powers to this? We already know Russia, Turkey, and Iran's, but I'm curious about Jordan, Israel, Egypt, UAE, etc.
Well.... was busy following insurgents and Assadists, the whole day. From what I've 'caught', seems, Egypt and Saudi Arabia expressed their support for Assad, UAE too. But, this evening Saudi Arabia recommended/requested its citizens to leave Syria, while Jordan is bitterly complaining about the WSJ article explaining that its officials recommended Assad to leave the county.
The Summit of the Arab League - planned to discuss 'Syria' - seems to have been postponed. Instead, few foreign ministers met in Baghdad. They can't do much, though.
And Tehran promised to 'do everything necessary' and that 'terrorism must be confronted', but that's about all: when checking Flightradar24, it does not even appear that the Sham Wings and Mahan (both are regularly hauling IRGC troops to Syria) are flying to Damascus more often than usually...
After the PKK/YPG/SDF assumed control of the al-Bukamal border crossing, the Iraqi PMOs turned around and returned home...
Re. Israel: reportedly, Israelis flew some air strike to destroy a major depot of Assadist chemical weapons, to prevent this from falling into CMO's hands. No details were released, though.
Privately, people working for some of top think-tanks there say they would actually prefer the IRGC of even Daesh (IS) in Damascus. Is the same they said already back in 2013-2014: anything else but a 'mortal threat for Israel' in Syria is 'not good', because a 'mortal threat' is securing endless US aid (so also when this is provided in violation of US laws). A few 'doves' then say, that 'Assad is better because no threat', but that's for PRBS-purposes. One way or the other, the worst solution for Israel would be a pluralist/inclusive government, considered 'peaceful' on the international scene: they're concerned this could be considered 'legitimate enough' to demand the Golan Heights back.
The Israelis are considering themselves 'bosses of the Middle East', and in their opinion, nothing in Syria can happen without their permission. They just haven't made up their minds yet: guess, they're waiting to see if intel predictions about the Assad's downfall might be realised, or if the IRGC is going to send yet more troops etc.
Eqypt, Jordan et al send some warm words to Assad but little more, it´s pretty unsexy to support a losing party. To turn the tide of this they don´t have enough time left and it would be to costly anyway.
Are the rebels in Southern Syria working with the CMO? How likely is it that they’ll reach Damascus before the CMO does? Also, I’m wondering—could this lead to power struggles between the CMO and the southern rebels?
IMHO, power struggles are unavoidable. CMO is CMO: a coalition relatively limited in size. and power. It will have to impose itself upon lots of people who are not going to like it imposing itself upon them.
How much is it in touch with the reconstituted Ahrar Horan OR... no idea. I guess it's established contact. But, one should keep in mind: Ahrar Horan OR is going to take a few days to work-up and organise its units and even once it does, they're nowhere near as well led, trained, and equipped (nor as disciplined) as the CMO.
Alone the CMO officers... that's an entirely different quality (easily outmatching even the mass of ZSU officers). And the HTS has excellent civic organisation, too: what they're meanwhile managing around Idlib and Aleppo is amazing.
In that sense, something interesting happened in Aleppo today... erm.. it's past midnight, so 'yesterday'... It was Friday, and thus the day of usual big prayers. And so, some of (Türkye-controlled) SNA factions the CMO has left to join them, brought with them their own preachers: mostly Egyptians from the Muslim Brotherhood. They attempted to go to local mosques and preach there...
So with that additional information I am making my guesses and afterwards some questions.
Guesses:
1) The Russians move their protection against air attacks to the port. That is for me a strong indication they want to secure their way out. Of course it could be a tactical ruse, but this would only make sense if they had some substantial forces still avaible, which they don't have as far as I undstand, which means for me no ruse. They will try to get out as long as they can without major losses.
2) No 'High Noon' at Homs as Assad's army is like a balloon with a hole.
3) As all his supporters just give lip service, this should be 'Game over' for him, as obviously no one is coming to help him.
That leads me to those questions, which I already wrote the days before:
1) How much control and influence has the CMO over it's partners?
2) How far is Erdogan willing to go to reach his own goals?
3) How will, Israel react to the results of 1) & 2) ?
The answers to these questions will give also the answer to the biggest and most important question at all.
When will Syria get a much needed peace with a stable and just government after now 13 years of a stupid and useless civil war mostly fueled by external powers? One should not forget their internal structure is still feudal.
The PMC seem to be another "Iranian proxy" failing to live up to billing then. Not a surprise that Iran controlling the whole Shi'a crescent with an iron fist was propaganda, but as a claim it certainly served its purpose by justifying an awful lot of belligerence.
Still, my view is that all sides are using it leverage on UA-Russia war: in order to get some of ukraine (and that’s why donbass advace is beyond rational) Russia willl have to leave Syria and Africa
No details. I only know that several Russian merchants have left St. Petersburg around 28-29 November: all bound for Syria. One fired a signal flare on a helicopter of a German Navy's frigate that was shadowing it.
a question that I can't get my head around for some years already. How are those black Daesh circles on the livemap in the middle of the desert without any land connection to the outside supply themselves and why did Assad not finish them off already?
Liveuamap has mentioned a statement of Iran's foreign minister that "the fate of the Syrian president cannot be predicted". At this point, Bashar may be needing a ride, not ammunition.
Haa, I understand the sentiment, not wanting to say something that could later be proven untrue. However, the chances of Assad holding Damascus without the support of Russia and Iran are close to zero.
Tom, do you know the reaction of all the big regional powers to this? We already know Russia, Turkey, and Iran's, but I'm curious about Jordan, Israel, Egypt, UAE, etc.
Well.... was busy following insurgents and Assadists, the whole day. From what I've 'caught', seems, Egypt and Saudi Arabia expressed their support for Assad, UAE too. But, this evening Saudi Arabia recommended/requested its citizens to leave Syria, while Jordan is bitterly complaining about the WSJ article explaining that its officials recommended Assad to leave the county.
The Summit of the Arab League - planned to discuss 'Syria' - seems to have been postponed. Instead, few foreign ministers met in Baghdad. They can't do much, though.
And Tehran promised to 'do everything necessary' and that 'terrorism must be confronted', but that's about all: when checking Flightradar24, it does not even appear that the Sham Wings and Mahan (both are regularly hauling IRGC troops to Syria) are flying to Damascus more often than usually...
After the PKK/YPG/SDF assumed control of the al-Bukamal border crossing, the Iraqi PMOs turned around and returned home...
Re. Israel: reportedly, Israelis flew some air strike to destroy a major depot of Assadist chemical weapons, to prevent this from falling into CMO's hands. No details were released, though.
Privately, people working for some of top think-tanks there say they would actually prefer the IRGC of even Daesh (IS) in Damascus. Is the same they said already back in 2013-2014: anything else but a 'mortal threat for Israel' in Syria is 'not good', because a 'mortal threat' is securing endless US aid (so also when this is provided in violation of US laws). A few 'doves' then say, that 'Assad is better because no threat', but that's for PRBS-purposes. One way or the other, the worst solution for Israel would be a pluralist/inclusive government, considered 'peaceful' on the international scene: they're concerned this could be considered 'legitimate enough' to demand the Golan Heights back.
The Israelis are considering themselves 'bosses of the Middle East', and in their opinion, nothing in Syria can happen without their permission. They just haven't made up their minds yet: guess, they're waiting to see if intel predictions about the Assad's downfall might be realised, or if the IRGC is going to send yet more troops etc.
Eqypt, Jordan et al send some warm words to Assad but little more, it´s pretty unsexy to support a losing party. To turn the tide of this they don´t have enough time left and it would be to costly anyway.
Are the rebels in Southern Syria working with the CMO? How likely is it that they’ll reach Damascus before the CMO does? Also, I’m wondering—could this lead to power struggles between the CMO and the southern rebels?
IMHO, power struggles are unavoidable. CMO is CMO: a coalition relatively limited in size. and power. It will have to impose itself upon lots of people who are not going to like it imposing itself upon them.
How much is it in touch with the reconstituted Ahrar Horan OR... no idea. I guess it's established contact. But, one should keep in mind: Ahrar Horan OR is going to take a few days to work-up and organise its units and even once it does, they're nowhere near as well led, trained, and equipped (nor as disciplined) as the CMO.
Alone the CMO officers... that's an entirely different quality (easily outmatching even the mass of ZSU officers). And the HTS has excellent civic organisation, too: what they're meanwhile managing around Idlib and Aleppo is amazing.
In that sense, something interesting happened in Aleppo today... erm.. it's past midnight, so 'yesterday'... It was Friday, and thus the day of usual big prayers. And so, some of (Türkye-controlled) SNA factions the CMO has left to join them, brought with them their own preachers: mostly Egyptians from the Muslim Brotherhood. They attempted to go to local mosques and preach there...
All were kicked out. The locals do not want them.
Hey tom, when things are hot and heavy you really do a good job at keeping us informed with outstanding analyzes. Mahalo!
Just reading the latest on the FT website. They don't know the half of all this.
Excellent update, as usual.
So with that additional information I am making my guesses and afterwards some questions.
Guesses:
1) The Russians move their protection against air attacks to the port. That is for me a strong indication they want to secure their way out. Of course it could be a tactical ruse, but this would only make sense if they had some substantial forces still avaible, which they don't have as far as I undstand, which means for me no ruse. They will try to get out as long as they can without major losses.
2) No 'High Noon' at Homs as Assad's army is like a balloon with a hole.
3) As all his supporters just give lip service, this should be 'Game over' for him, as obviously no one is coming to help him.
That leads me to those questions, which I already wrote the days before:
1) How much control and influence has the CMO over it's partners?
2) How far is Erdogan willing to go to reach his own goals?
3) How will, Israel react to the results of 1) & 2) ?
The answers to these questions will give also the answer to the biggest and most important question at all.
When will Syria get a much needed peace with a stable and just government after now 13 years of a stupid and useless civil war mostly fueled by external powers? One should not forget their internal structure is still feudal.
As per (this source)[https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/6-december-18-the-russian-s400-air-defense-system-and-the], "The Russian S-400 air defense system and the Tor-M2 air defense system were spotted moving from the city of Masyaf on the border of Hama province towards the Hmeimim base."
That is interesting as the same picture was shown as proof that the Russians are moving their S-300 SAM down to to the Tartous area.
It can only be one or the other, but not proof for both.
The PMC seem to be another "Iranian proxy" failing to live up to billing then. Not a surprise that Iran controlling the whole Shi'a crescent with an iron fist was propaganda, but as a claim it certainly served its purpose by justifying an awful lot of belligerence.
Still, my view is that all sides are using it leverage on UA-Russia war: in order to get some of ukraine (and that’s why donbass advace is beyond rational) Russia willl have to leave Syria and Africa
I have read reports that Russian ship movements out of Tartus are out of character
Any update on this?
I wonder how likely loss of the base as a functioning asset might be as this scenario unfolds ?
Never a dull moment
No details. I only know that several Russian merchants have left St. Petersburg around 28-29 November: all bound for Syria. One fired a signal flare on a helicopter of a German Navy's frigate that was shadowing it.
Thanks Tom,
a question that I can't get my head around for some years already. How are those black Daesh circles on the livemap in the middle of the desert without any land connection to the outside supply themselves and why did Assad not finish them off already?
Yes, there is Daesh in the Badya. Was too busy with western Syria to address this, but it seems they've tried to reach Palmyra, yesterday.
How did they survive there completely encircled?
By ambushing Assadists and the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF and looting their arms, ammo, and supplies.
Liveuamap has mentioned a statement of Iran's foreign minister that "the fate of the Syrian president cannot be predicted". At this point, Bashar may be needing a ride, not ammunition.
Thanks, Tom
Haa, I understand the sentiment, not wanting to say something that could later be proven untrue. However, the chances of Assad holding Damascus without the support of Russia and Iran are close to zero.