Syria, 6 December 2024: Late-Night Mini-Update
Hello everybody!
On ‘popular demand’, a mini-update on developments in Syria, where things are meanwhile moving at an amazing pace.
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North: Türkish-controlled SNA has re-activated its Fajr al-Hurriya OR (al-Bab area), and this is warning civilians in the Manbij area to stay away from PKK/YPG/SDF-positions. About three hours ago, the SNA then reported the liberation of Sheikh Abyad village (al-Khafsa area).
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Latakia
Whether the Russians are really evacuating the Hmeymim AB, as some say: no idea. But, they did move their S-300 SAM-system away from their primary base, in southern direction down the highway via Banyas to the Tartous area.
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Homs: minutes ago, the CMO issued a stern warning on Assadists in Homs, demanding them to defect ('or face the consequences').
The CMO-spearheads are meanwhile deploying along the M1 Highway west of Homs: from there, they can easily cut off the last land-connection between the city and the coast - and thus between Damascus and the coast.
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Dayr az-Zawr (eastern Syria): last Assadist formations have withdrawn from Qamishli, from Hasaka, and then from Dayr az-Zawr. There was an arrangement for the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF to take over.
That said (and as must have been expected, actually), the al-Busaraya tribe has already declared it’s joining the CMO and has launched an uprising against the PKK/YPG/SDF in the area immediately west of Dayr az-Zawr.
Amid the PKK/YPG/SDF’s take-over of Dayr az-Zawr, and then the border crossing to Iraq at al-Bukamal, the Iraqi combatants of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) turned around and disappeared back into Iraq. Is no surprise, though: Muqtada as-Sadr (leader of the Sadrist movement of the Iraqi Shi’a), and even the chieftain of the PMC, both explained (foremost to the IRGC-controlled government in Baghdad) that (essentially) what’s going on in Syria are Syrian internal affairs, and none of Iraq’s business.
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Palmyra (central Syria): following reports about a rapid withdrawal of the Assadist 17th Division from Dayr az-Zawr in direction of Palmyra, the US-supported Free Syrian Army units ('garrisoned' in the Tanf area since 2015), were granted permission to advance on Palmyra.
Obviously, the CENTCOM has concluded it’s better for the Free Syrian Army to get to the city, before the Daesh does so. Reason: amid the general collapse of Assadism, the Daesh is meanwhile controlling much of the area between Palmyra and as-Sukhna, just for example, and - reportedly - Assadist garrison abandoned Sukhna, this evening.
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Dera'a (southern Syria): seems, the entire province is 'at arms' and there are countless reports about local Assadist members of military- and security services being overrun, defecting, or running away in direction of Damascus.
Foremost, minutes ago, the local insurgents - all 're-conciliated' (after being abandoned by the USA and Jordan, and with 'Russian mediation') in 2018 - reported that the Dera'a (city) is completely under their control.
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Reportedly, Assad visited Tehran, today. Results are unknown, but this evening, the Iranian embassy in Damascus ‘recommended’ Iranian citizens to leave the country (the same was done by official Moscow today, in relation to Russian citizens), and a speaker on at least two of Iranian TV-channels called the Syrian insurgents ‘rebels’, instead of the usual ‘takfiri terrorists’. In turn, IRGC troops in Syria are posting videos of their farewells to different of Shi’a shrines in Syria…
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I remain ‘cautiously optimistic’, but, well: cannot than agree with those who say: there’s no way Assadist regime can survive ‘this’.
Hey tom, when things are hot and heavy you really do a good job at keeping us informed with outstanding analyzes. Mahalo!
Just reading the latest on the FT website. They don't know the half of all this.