Thanks Tom. Can you clarify whether we can talk about "front lines" in Syria (similar to those in Ukraine)? Judging by the pace of the anti-Assad forces' advance, it is a maneuver war. At the same time, the rebels' good logistics are surprising.
Yes, this war is 'dominated' by frontlines - i.e. trench warfare - already since around 2013. It was always 'infantry dominated', too, and there was relatively little manoeuvre warfare.
Re. insurgent logistics: like in all 'Arab' armed forces of the last 70-80 years, this was always functioning very well. Principally because it was run by thousands of professional military officers that defected from the Syrian Arab Army.
Of course, that shouldn't mean they were well-supplied with heavy arms and suitable ammo: this was always short because relatively little was captured, and even foreign supporters were never keen to make the insurgency strong enough to win.
Yep. And that could have far range consequences since every West African junta became infatuated with Russia based on the Russian forces "performance" of butchering Syrians. With the hope Russians could do the same to their co-citizens.
If Budanov truly wanted to destroy Russia prestige and operation across Africa, Syria is the place to destroy it rather than fool around in Khartoum or Kidal.
3 days ago, it was crazy to see insurgents hold 3 villages they had just captured.
2 days ago it was crazy to see them enter Aleppo city.
Yesterday it was crazy to see them capture it.
Earlier today unthinkable to see the insurgents seize 3 airports under mere hours including 2 supposedly handed over to YPG/PKK
And now they are just walking freely in Alawite, Shias and Syriac communities of Nulb and Zahraa in North West Aleppo and North Hama. The former is the heart of IRGC Syrian Hezbollah while the later formed the backbone of some of the most vicious Assadists militias.
It is fundamentally different from the rebels entering freely in localities depopulated and left as pillaged no mans lands.
Did the Russian effort to rebuild the SAA only success was to effectively break the sectarian pact of loyalties between Assad and theses localities ? They used to be area bitterly defended (pretty much the only areas where Assadists defended strongly rather than flee and wait their airforce/artillery to pulverized everything in front of them).
Side note : is Liwa al-Quds even Palestinian dominated since 2016 ? I thought they effectively became open to anyone vetted by the intelligence services after their commander wasted their manpower in completely futile daily infantry attack just like "DNR" did on the Donetsk front in 2022.
Past 2017, it appeared the IRGC dropped them and the "NDF" in favour of their "LDF" project. The Russians became their backer to replace the dissolved Jaber's Desert Hawks and turned them into their second favourite auxiliaries task force (their favourite one are the so called "Tiger Force"/25th Division).
Afaik after 2016 Liwa al-Quds saw a lot of action across the entire country. Coincidentally in the same place Wagner would visit including a lot of action in the Homs desert ...
Meh he is unreliable. He likes to write all sort of crazy conspiracy scenario. Beside he is a Zionists who always ends up hating the people he covers. Yesterday it was the Syrians. Now he is mostly focusing his pervert hate on Ukrainians.
There was a confusing incident in Damas but the truth is nobody has any idea what truly happened. For all we know it could have been some post guards on a scare attack. Or drunken militia men shooting in the air to celebrate a wedding.
Unfortunately, what is 100% confirmed is regime forces are gathering in Hama cities and in the localities immediately north of it including a crucial hill. There will be a difficult battle tomorrow.
Meanwhile YPG/PKK are running death squadrons across Aleppo city and already ambushed some insurgents.
Re. Liwa al-Qods: the other way around. This is an IRGC unit, just like the mass of NDF and LDF-formations. What the Russians did was to integrate some of such units into the 're-formed' Syrian Arab Army. That's how the 'Tiger Force' (and former Desert Hawks) became the 25th Brigade Republican Guards.
(Sorry abouy lots of questions again. This war seems very very complicated and I am having a hard time wrapping my head around it) How important is it for Russia to keep Assad in power? Who is the bigger concern for Turkey? I.e. Turkey supported insurgents' main target will be PKK or IRGC? And other than Qatar, any other Arab state involved in financing the insurgents or Assad or PKK? And lastly, why Qatar? They are a tiny nation (though huge wealth), what is their goal here?
- For Russia, it is a matter of prestige and logistic. Putin built much of his power projection into Africa based on his "success" in Syria. The harbour in the Syrian coast served as key logistic hubs for Russia projection into the mediterranean sea (notably Libya) and from then into West Africa where it has successfully replaced the French post-colonial system of "Françafrique" (though keep in mind that contrary to what French officials like to say, they have primary themselves to blame rather than Russian & Turkish "disinformation"). Some says the Syrian harbours controlled by Russia also serves as minor sanction evasion points.
- The biggest concern for Turkey are the YPG/PKK. Problem : the latter is backed by everybody else and notably the US. In fact they used to have a decade long truce but the PKK broke it and started the war again as soon as the US allied with them and start to give them massive backing.
- Turkey primary target is PKK. In fact while the IRGC (and Russia) support the PKK, Turkey always hope that Iran and Russia will suddenly help it and dismantle the PKK presence in North Syria. Turkey does also has concerns about Syrians refugees so it spent the last decade asking (more like begging) Assad, Iran and Russia to stop their genocidal campaign on Syrians Sunnis in the north so Turkey could concentrate all the refugees there. Through "voluntary" returns ofc
And yes it is dumb. But contrary to image built in Western media, Erdogan is an ever-appeasing dreamer.
- UAE finance a little Assad although its support is foremost diplomatic. KSA had a complicate story but since MbS assumed power it tried to support Assad. Tried because Assad actively refuses. MbS offered plenty of time massive financial support against toning down the war and maybe reducing IRGC presence in the country, but Assad always refused. Fact is Assad preferable outcome has always been the way it was until 4 days ago : a country largely depopulated, comprehensively plundered. "Burned" just like his supporters used to chant "Assad or we burn the country" and proceeded to do both. A few years ago during a rare TV interview, he went as far as to boast that " with a reduced population" since he killed or deported millions of Sunnis Syrians, "the country is now more healthy society".
Assad found narco traffic as the most convenient source of income without rebuilding the country with Gulf money and proceeded to flood the region with Captagon drugs. KSA proposed even more money if Assad reduced his drugs activity but Assad naturally refused. Meanwhile even loyalists communities fell into horrendous poverty since they have no more Sunnis towns to comprehensively plunder.
- Why Qatar ? The PSG supporter in me would naturally suggest the prince is good and benevolent and perfect and holy. Almost the Christ reincarnated.
The non supporter in me would suggest a few points as food for thought :
- The Emir al-Thani is a long standing backer of what Westerner brands as "Islamists" mouvement. Where Islamists means pro democracy (yes ; this is the kind point) conservative movements based on the original post independence Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Think Ennahda in Tunisia. Or the AKP in Turkey. Or Morsi in Egypt. Naturally al-Thani backed all the originals Arab Spring mouvements. You can consider this an ideological commitment. And yes, it is in full opposition others Arab despots (royalties or not) who, just like Assad, see their population as ressource to exploit at best, a danger to exterminate at worst, and formed a counter-revolutionnary axis after 2012.
- If you are sufficiently open minded to consider Arab leaders may not be reduced to fanatically believers in esoteric political mouvements with funny names created by bored Western academics, you can consider the basic political perspective. Qatar is a tiny country indeed. Meaning a weak one on its own. In international studies, it is common wisdom to consider that such countries are most safe when they are surrounded by relatively democratic powers and they are most at danger to foreign invasion when they are surrounded by autocratic/totalitarian regimes which are perceived as fickled and expansionists in nature. While the former is doubtful (I mean look at French or US imperial history) Al-Thani did experimented for himself the later thesis when MbS (KSA) and MbZ (UAE) suddenly decided they wanted to occupy Qatar and kill its Emir. They blockaded the country and al-Thani was saved only thanks to the timely Turkish deployment in the tiny Emirate. Turkey who happened to be the only semi democratic state in the region ...
- It is worth pointing this is part of balanced diplomacy where Qatar seeks to have friendly relations with everyone in the region save for Assad and Israel : It has the largest US military base in the Gulf. Yet it was the only Gulf monarchies who did not push Trump to war against Iran. It accepted Sisi rule in Egypt even as it was the primary supporter of Morsi and his MB government. It was part of the KSA/UAE intervention in Yemen until the later decided they wanted to occupy Qatar too. It hosted the Taliban delegations with whom the US negotiated under Trump. It used to host an Hamas delegation too. When KSA and UAE admitted the failure of their blockade,
Qatar quickly reconciled and soon enough all 3 princes found themselves enjoying meals and tea as if nothing happened while they proceed to hide the skeletons of their servants killed in closets. Literally.
Qatar policy essentially seeks builds ties with everybody. Save Israel. And Assad whom has always behaved as an aggressive spoiler against everybody (when he could afford to). And support MB style "Islamists" mouvement when it can. From a realist logic, it is a reasonable policy for a tiny but extremely wealthy state. Be mindful though that Qatar natural ressources income are a fraction of UAE's which are themselves a fractions of Saudi Arabia incomes.
Well, latest news from this evening is that the Republican Guards is rushing reinforcements to Hama. The insurgents have already entered the city, early in the evening (or what was left of Hama: much of the city was razed to the ground by Assadists, back in 2012-2014) but then were forced to withdraw.
No love for Assad and his regime, but what would emerge with an Islamist led regime, would be pretty ugly for any of the non-muslim communities and not great for any non-fundamentalist muslim either. Talk about ugly choices.
'Islamist' regime is relative. Pakistan is an Islamic Republic (check its title), Indonesia used to have al-Qaeda members in the government and still has an 'Islamist' government and still, the USA are selling it F-15s.
So, that issue is rather that of the 'public image'.
It's rather so that for 75+ years, we in the West have been indoctrinated (literaly) that 'Syria = terrorism' and then 'Syria = jihadism'. Time to re-think that.
Looking at the various groups, I have little faith that the moderates will stand a chance of forming a government if Assad falls. I see the hardcore radicals taking over and being very nasty to everyone else. Technically I am a Sunni Muslim as I had to convert to marry my wife in Malaysia and I did that in Nov 2001, so it's been a very illuminating window into the Muslim mindset. My wife utterly despises the radical Islamists and does not trust the moderate ones either.
Yes, and such concerns are 'supported' by the fact that the 'moderates' have survived being herded in western Idlib for 12 years under the Nusra-cum-HTS, and continue opposing its dictate so much, al-Jawlani eventually had to give up oppressing them?
After 13 years of this fracas, it might be about the time to conclude that jumping to conclusions about Syria is never the best idea.
the larger point remains the same as what Colin said though - I mean, Pakistan ethnically cleansed its minorities over the past 70 years - Bangladesh is doing the same these days post the Govt takeover. Indonesia is relatively milder, yes.
This is great news. Aleppo looks remarkably like a human settlement in today's coverage, as opposed to the Gaza-like moonscape it was in 2016. Not for long though!
That's the western Aleppo. The eastern and southern part of Aleppo are still a moonscape. And, after all the Assadist bestialities and ethnic cleansings, most of Hama and Homs are even worse.
Thanks Tom. Can you clarify whether we can talk about "front lines" in Syria (similar to those in Ukraine)? Judging by the pace of the anti-Assad forces' advance, it is a maneuver war. At the same time, the rebels' good logistics are surprising.
Yes, this war is 'dominated' by frontlines - i.e. trench warfare - already since around 2013. It was always 'infantry dominated', too, and there was relatively little manoeuvre warfare.
Manoeuvre battles coming to my mind would be such like the Hezbollah/IRGC onslaught on al-Qusayr of 2013, or the Operation Northern Storm: the IRGC's link-up with the besieged Aleppo garrison in October-November that year. (Both were described here: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/syrian-conflagration-revised-edition-the-syrian-civil-war-2011-2013.php).
Re. insurgent logistics: like in all 'Arab' armed forces of the last 70-80 years, this was always functioning very well. Principally because it was run by thousands of professional military officers that defected from the Syrian Arab Army.
Of course, that shouldn't mean they were well-supplied with heavy arms and suitable ammo: this was always short because relatively little was captured, and even foreign supporters were never keen to make the insurgency strong enough to win.
If Assad is defeated, Russia will be considered even less reliable ally than the US.
Yep. And that could have far range consequences since every West African junta became infatuated with Russia based on the Russian forces "performance" of butchering Syrians. With the hope Russians could do the same to their co-citizens.
If Budanov truly wanted to destroy Russia prestige and operation across Africa, Syria is the place to destroy it rather than fool around in Khartoum or Kidal.
3 days ago, it was crazy to see insurgents hold 3 villages they had just captured.
2 days ago it was crazy to see them enter Aleppo city.
Yesterday it was crazy to see them capture it.
Earlier today unthinkable to see the insurgents seize 3 airports under mere hours including 2 supposedly handed over to YPG/PKK
And now they are just walking freely in Alawite, Shias and Syriac communities of Nulb and Zahraa in North West Aleppo and North Hama. The former is the heart of IRGC Syrian Hezbollah while the later formed the backbone of some of the most vicious Assadists militias.
It is fundamentally different from the rebels entering freely in localities depopulated and left as pillaged no mans lands.
Did the Russian effort to rebuild the SAA only success was to effectively break the sectarian pact of loyalties between Assad and theses localities ? They used to be area bitterly defended (pretty much the only areas where Assadists defended strongly rather than flee and wait their airforce/artillery to pulverized everything in front of them).
Side note : is Liwa al-Quds even Palestinian dominated since 2016 ? I thought they effectively became open to anyone vetted by the intelligence services after their commander wasted their manpower in completely futile daily infantry attack just like "DNR" did on the Donetsk front in 2022.
Past 2017, it appeared the IRGC dropped them and the "NDF" in favour of their "LDF" project. The Russians became their backer to replace the dissolved Jaber's Desert Hawks and turned them into their second favourite auxiliaries task force (their favourite one are the so called "Tiger Force"/25th Division).
Afaik after 2016 Liwa al-Quds saw a lot of action across the entire country. Coincidentally in the same place Wagner would visit including a lot of action in the Homs desert ...
Julian Roepke starts to think that this is a military coup with the Syrian Army miving sideways and the Islamists taking power.
Meh he is unreliable. He likes to write all sort of crazy conspiracy scenario. Beside he is a Zionists who always ends up hating the people he covers. Yesterday it was the Syrians. Now he is mostly focusing his pervert hate on Ukrainians.
There was a confusing incident in Damas but the truth is nobody has any idea what truly happened. For all we know it could have been some post guards on a scare attack. Or drunken militia men shooting in the air to celebrate a wedding.
Unfortunately, what is 100% confirmed is regime forces are gathering in Hama cities and in the localities immediately north of it including a crucial hill. There will be a difficult battle tomorrow.
Meanwhile YPG/PKK are running death squadrons across Aleppo city and already ambushed some insurgents.
Re. Liwa al-Qods: the other way around. This is an IRGC unit, just like the mass of NDF and LDF-formations. What the Russians did was to integrate some of such units into the 're-formed' Syrian Arab Army. That's how the 'Tiger Force' (and former Desert Hawks) became the 25th Brigade Republican Guards.
(Sorry abouy lots of questions again. This war seems very very complicated and I am having a hard time wrapping my head around it) How important is it for Russia to keep Assad in power? Who is the bigger concern for Turkey? I.e. Turkey supported insurgents' main target will be PKK or IRGC? And other than Qatar, any other Arab state involved in financing the insurgents or Assad or PKK? And lastly, why Qatar? They are a tiny nation (though huge wealth), what is their goal here?
Caveat : its just my opinion, not Tom's
- For Russia, it is a matter of prestige and logistic. Putin built much of his power projection into Africa based on his "success" in Syria. The harbour in the Syrian coast served as key logistic hubs for Russia projection into the mediterranean sea (notably Libya) and from then into West Africa where it has successfully replaced the French post-colonial system of "Françafrique" (though keep in mind that contrary to what French officials like to say, they have primary themselves to blame rather than Russian & Turkish "disinformation"). Some says the Syrian harbours controlled by Russia also serves as minor sanction evasion points.
- The biggest concern for Turkey are the YPG/PKK. Problem : the latter is backed by everybody else and notably the US. In fact they used to have a decade long truce but the PKK broke it and started the war again as soon as the US allied with them and start to give them massive backing.
- Turkey primary target is PKK. In fact while the IRGC (and Russia) support the PKK, Turkey always hope that Iran and Russia will suddenly help it and dismantle the PKK presence in North Syria. Turkey does also has concerns about Syrians refugees so it spent the last decade asking (more like begging) Assad, Iran and Russia to stop their genocidal campaign on Syrians Sunnis in the north so Turkey could concentrate all the refugees there. Through "voluntary" returns ofc
And yes it is dumb. But contrary to image built in Western media, Erdogan is an ever-appeasing dreamer.
- UAE finance a little Assad although its support is foremost diplomatic. KSA had a complicate story but since MbS assumed power it tried to support Assad. Tried because Assad actively refuses. MbS offered plenty of time massive financial support against toning down the war and maybe reducing IRGC presence in the country, but Assad always refused. Fact is Assad preferable outcome has always been the way it was until 4 days ago : a country largely depopulated, comprehensively plundered. "Burned" just like his supporters used to chant "Assad or we burn the country" and proceeded to do both. A few years ago during a rare TV interview, he went as far as to boast that " with a reduced population" since he killed or deported millions of Sunnis Syrians, "the country is now more healthy society".
Assad found narco traffic as the most convenient source of income without rebuilding the country with Gulf money and proceeded to flood the region with Captagon drugs. KSA proposed even more money if Assad reduced his drugs activity but Assad naturally refused. Meanwhile even loyalists communities fell into horrendous poverty since they have no more Sunnis towns to comprehensively plunder.
- Why Qatar ? The PSG supporter in me would naturally suggest the prince is good and benevolent and perfect and holy. Almost the Christ reincarnated.
The non supporter in me would suggest a few points as food for thought :
- The Emir al-Thani is a long standing backer of what Westerner brands as "Islamists" mouvement. Where Islamists means pro democracy (yes ; this is the kind point) conservative movements based on the original post independence Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Think Ennahda in Tunisia. Or the AKP in Turkey. Or Morsi in Egypt. Naturally al-Thani backed all the originals Arab Spring mouvements. You can consider this an ideological commitment. And yes, it is in full opposition others Arab despots (royalties or not) who, just like Assad, see their population as ressource to exploit at best, a danger to exterminate at worst, and formed a counter-revolutionnary axis after 2012.
- If you are sufficiently open minded to consider Arab leaders may not be reduced to fanatically believers in esoteric political mouvements with funny names created by bored Western academics, you can consider the basic political perspective. Qatar is a tiny country indeed. Meaning a weak one on its own. In international studies, it is common wisdom to consider that such countries are most safe when they are surrounded by relatively democratic powers and they are most at danger to foreign invasion when they are surrounded by autocratic/totalitarian regimes which are perceived as fickled and expansionists in nature. While the former is doubtful (I mean look at French or US imperial history) Al-Thani did experimented for himself the later thesis when MbS (KSA) and MbZ (UAE) suddenly decided they wanted to occupy Qatar and kill its Emir. They blockaded the country and al-Thani was saved only thanks to the timely Turkish deployment in the tiny Emirate. Turkey who happened to be the only semi democratic state in the region ...
- It is worth pointing this is part of balanced diplomacy where Qatar seeks to have friendly relations with everyone in the region save for Assad and Israel : It has the largest US military base in the Gulf. Yet it was the only Gulf monarchies who did not push Trump to war against Iran. It accepted Sisi rule in Egypt even as it was the primary supporter of Morsi and his MB government. It was part of the KSA/UAE intervention in Yemen until the later decided they wanted to occupy Qatar too. It hosted the Taliban delegations with whom the US negotiated under Trump. It used to host an Hamas delegation too. When KSA and UAE admitted the failure of their blockade,
Qatar quickly reconciled and soon enough all 3 princes found themselves enjoying meals and tea as if nothing happened while they proceed to hide the skeletons of their servants killed in closets. Literally.
Qatar policy essentially seeks builds ties with everybody. Save Israel. And Assad whom has always behaved as an aggressive spoiler against everybody (when he could afford to). And support MB style "Islamists" mouvement when it can. From a realist logic, it is a reasonable policy for a tiny but extremely wealthy state. Be mindful though that Qatar natural ressources income are a fraction of UAE's which are themselves a fractions of Saudi Arabia incomes.
1.) Is a matter of prestige for Pudding.
2.) PKK/YPG/SDF-conglomerate.
3.) Assad + IRGC + Russians.
4.) None I know. But, many of Arab dictatorships might now try to save Assad.
5.) They might be a tiny nation, but are swimming in money.
Tom it seems like most of the pro-Assad forces are just not even fighting. I think we might see a collapse of Assad's rule at this rate.
Well, latest news from this evening is that the Republican Guards is rushing reinforcements to Hama. The insurgents have already entered the city, early in the evening (or what was left of Hama: much of the city was razed to the ground by Assadists, back in 2012-2014) but then were forced to withdraw.
No love for Assad and his regime, but what would emerge with an Islamist led regime, would be pretty ugly for any of the non-muslim communities and not great for any non-fundamentalist muslim either. Talk about ugly choices.
'Islamist' regime is relative. Pakistan is an Islamic Republic (check its title), Indonesia used to have al-Qaeda members in the government and still has an 'Islamist' government and still, the USA are selling it F-15s.
So, that issue is rather that of the 'public image'.
It's rather so that for 75+ years, we in the West have been indoctrinated (literaly) that 'Syria = terrorism' and then 'Syria = jihadism'. Time to re-think that.
Looking at the various groups, I have little faith that the moderates will stand a chance of forming a government if Assad falls. I see the hardcore radicals taking over and being very nasty to everyone else. Technically I am a Sunni Muslim as I had to convert to marry my wife in Malaysia and I did that in Nov 2001, so it's been a very illuminating window into the Muslim mindset. My wife utterly despises the radical Islamists and does not trust the moderate ones either.
Yes, and such concerns are 'supported' by the fact that the 'moderates' have survived being herded in western Idlib for 12 years under the Nusra-cum-HTS, and continue opposing its dictate so much, al-Jawlani eventually had to give up oppressing them?
After 13 years of this fracas, it might be about the time to conclude that jumping to conclusions about Syria is never the best idea.
Well I will be very happy if you are right and I am wrong.
the larger point remains the same as what Colin said though - I mean, Pakistan ethnically cleansed its minorities over the past 70 years - Bangladesh is doing the same these days post the Govt takeover. Indonesia is relatively milder, yes.
This is great news. Aleppo looks remarkably like a human settlement in today's coverage, as opposed to the Gaza-like moonscape it was in 2016. Not for long though!
That's the western Aleppo. The eastern and southern part of Aleppo are still a moonscape. And, after all the Assadist bestialities and ethnic cleansings, most of Hama and Homs are even worse.
Is there any chance for Russia to be expelled from Syria?
Yes, if the backers of the insurgent forces want to.
Thanks for the update Tom.
What is going on in Salartvelo/ Georgia? It’s getting intense over there too? Chemicals spread on citizens?
Sorry, no idea. Have my hands full just trying to follow Ukraine and Syria at the same time.