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Thanks a lot for this update. We will see about what Army have the most flexibility or to seal the gap or ti exploit it.

Ochererino was the northern flank of the new main defense line, I am right?

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Actually, it was behind the north flank. The defence line was running from Berdychi to Novkalynove.

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you comment about flexibility implies some equality, but Ukrainian army do not have it. What it has - it has no ammo. So, competition in flexibility we will see only after first ammo packages from US will come. Before it's just pure survival :(

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I’m glad that some actions were taken on units that are there but have not done their share of the defense unlike the bloody 47th or the 3rd Assault.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Hardly the end of politically motivated units in the ZSU (see Kraken, 3rd Assault, etc). Just the end of them functioning outside standard military discipline. Or so the ZSU says.

More likely, Office of the President and ZSU command is willing to take on the relatively weak civilian support organization of Right Sector but afraid of taking on the much more powerful and politically well organized civilian support organization of Azov. It also helps that the various Azov affiliated units are some of the most combat effective, are excellent at bringing in volunteers even in the current climate, and don't run in the face of the enemy.

But the end of politically affiliated units in the ZSU? Hardly.

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Point is this: units like the 46th and 67th seem to have been more concerned about their status, freedom of operations, and hazing of troops that are not to their taste, taking photos/videos of themselves while saluting with Nazi salutes and other nonsense - than with actually fighting the Russians.

From my POV, they can consider themselves whatever they want, and have whatever political demands they think they have to have. BUT, as long as there are Russians running a war of extermination against Ukraine, their primary task is fighting these Russians, Not other Ukrainians.

If they can't get this into their heads, they're simply wrong in place.

This is something the 3rd Assault, Kraken etc. have understood very well, and that's all there is to say in this regards.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

100%. It's a question of priorities. Grandpa served on IL-2s during the war, and when I had my priorities screwed up, he would remind me of the old Soviet song "First order of business are the aircraft. What about the girls? The girls come later".

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Or in the dirty version "first priority is to ruin all the airplanes, we will ruin all the girls later". :))

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Why would you disband 3rd Assault which is currently one of the best ukraininan units (if not the best one)?

And Kraken is not even part of ZSU, it is a GUR special outfit but which was frequently used in Russian propaganda which you seem to consume a lot since you mention it..

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I think either I wasn't clear enough or you didn't read my comment closely enough. It was regarding the general statement that this is the end of politically affiliated units in the UAF. Nowhere did I suggest disbanding the Azov affiliated groups. As far as Kraken, they started life in 2022 when some of the most capable veterans from Kharkiv Azov volunteered, took up arms, and joined in the defense against Russian invasion. It is still closely affiliated with the civilian Azov org, and supported by their volunteers. My source for this are the many interviews that Nemichev gave to the media, Ukrainian and Russian opposition media both.

Highly recommend not to jump to conclusions and attack folks before reading what they wrote closely..

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you for the update. I suspected something like this. The only thing that surprises me that if it was the 47th Mech that was rotating out, why did they leave before anyone showed up to relieve them? They have been in the fight long enough to know better. I have read about empty UA positions so that means the unit on hand left prior to the new guys getting there. If I have this wrong let me know. But the 67th Mech? Yes, and yes. They just about gave the game away over a simple stupid mistake (not mining a certain area), and if that is due to poor leadership or a failure to follow orders (from Faggot Generals) then changes need to be made. Volunteer units can be great units, but they must be disciplined and they must understand they are part of the military and as such obey orders and regulations. The US Military in the War of 1812 is a textbook example of how NOT to do it in regards to volunteers and militia. For every volunteer unit that turns out well, you have three that fail miserably. The old CinC was well liked, even beloved, but he didn't do the hard rights that needed to be done in order to become effective. In the US, we call that a McClellan after the Civil War General who was loved by his men, but couldn't do what needed to be done and didn't like taking orders from higher ups since he "Knew Better".

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Apr 23·edited Apr 23

I don't buy the story with the rotating Brigades. Attacking during the rotation is usually a bad idea for the simple reason that for that short amount of time (a Brigade needs 24-48 max to rotate) you will face double the amount of troops in that area. The ones being rotated out don't just pack up and leave in columns, the operation is more complex with pre designed concentration areas and entry/exit points for the troops going in and out. The more plausible story would be that they were caught buy artillery or aviation while trying to do this. And the enemy will/should always look for this opportunity, even if troop rotations are usually done at night. Is they just left and not followed orders, well, this is another story.

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....except one of units moves out of its positions too early - before its replacements arrive.

By now, it has turned out that the 47th wasn't involved in that mess.

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Bad planning or insubordination then. Perhaps the latter because bad planning just for one unit is unlikely, especially in the Soviet model where you receive everything step by step.

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I doubt it's the bad planning. The OSG Tavriya has recently run a number of rotations - all of them without any kind or problems. Just for example: the 67th was whiskered out of Chasiv Yar and replaced by another brigade without even a trace of a problem.

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Not sure if there was even rotation there, seems like it was just units that were attrited too much, and the whole sector was really lightly held. Have you managed to confirm there was really a rotation there recently?

According to some soldier that's deployed in the sector towards Ocheretyne russians overran units of the 115th mechanized brigade.

He knows nothing of "positions being abandoned", this is often used in the blame game between units in the same sector, most likely positions got overrun and some retreated when defense collapsed.

It's common for situation to go to shit quickly because commanders hide losses from central command, so they eventually get caught with their pants down

(https://x.com/justincbzz/status/1782266566320566371)

And Bradleys from 47th were probably on the scene since there was litteraly no one else to plug the gap and delay so the rest of the units could bail out from the village. They never held positions there anyway. Think that version of events is in line with the latest communique from the 47th bde.

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Apr 23·edited Apr 23Author

Nope: haven't got anything more but what's posted above (see the 'updates', too).

Have tried to check with the 115th, but haven't got a response yet. (Though... knowing a bit about that unit.... well, not surprised if they've been taken by surprise....)

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Could it bee that the russians are going "all inn" at the moment because they expect that it will be impossible when Ukrainians get resupplied?

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If you look at Russian behavior since 2022, there may be ebbs and flows based on supplies, replacements and withstanding Ukrainian attacks, but they have always been 'all in' to the limit of their abilities.

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They are 'all in' all the time. Really, 'to the limit, and beyond' - and then not only in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, but also in the Kupyansk, Kremina, Mariinka, Vuhledar, and Robotyne areas. They do not have any other mode of fighting a war.

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Driven by their political needs in addition to it being their standard doctrine?

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Apr 24·edited Apr 24Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Look, Putin expected it to be over in a week or so. The ground forces didn't deliver so they have to try until they can't. That in a sense that there is nothing left to fight with.

For example was my cousin in law sitting very close to Fastiv direction North North West. Festival is south of Kyiv were the railroad is going through. To the North North East of Festival is an airfield that the Russians tried to capture by air drop with helicopters. They saw them fly by and some also going down on the way there. They tried three times landing there behind enemy lines to take an airfield which the ground troops would never reach. Complete carnage.

When I asked my cousin why they would do that he replied: Because they are Ruzkies, that's the way they are. Following orders as feedback is only valuable in form of body bags.

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Fastiv.... that's interesting.... The Russians attempted a heliborne assault on Fastiv? Was that on 24 February 2022?

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They were sitting in a village next to Helwacha (actually north north east of Fastiv) and attacked the airfield of Wassilkyv which is located immediately south of the train station of Helwacha (there were the highway and the railways are really next to each other).

Day I don't now but I was talking to him on Facebook at night were he was sitting in a pitch black room to not give any orientation by emitting light.

They had artillery firing next to them as the lakes to the North West are quite a nice defensive perimeter.

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Ah wait! That's 'even better' - because this is a detail related to the Russian heliborne assault on Vasilkyiv AB. And that is a story widely considered for 'typical Ukrainian mythology' in the West.

I did include it in War in Ukraine Volume 2, but was criticised for doing that. Kind of 'there's no evidence anything happened there at all': no two Russian Il-76s shot down, no wreckage of Russian helicopters, no bodies of Russian VDV troops...

So, alone what you'Ve posted in these two messages is 'about 300% more than what was released by official Kyiv by now'. Thanks a lot.

If you know any additional details, that would be greatly appreciated!

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

This from Fobes and Ukrainska Pravda a week ago:

"The defense ministry in Kyiv investigated [the 67th]. It discovered, among other scandals, that the 67th Brigade’s officers were sending new volunteers—those without ties to the Right Sector—into combat with inadequate training and support.

The officers derisively called the new volunteers “pixels” after the pixelated pattern on their newly-issued uniforms. As bad as the Right Sector troops’ attitude was toward apolitical troops, “the attitude toward the ‘pixels’ was even worse,” Ukrainian Pravda reported. “They were the first to be sent into combat, and their lack of experience made them lose territory.”"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/15/robots-reinforce-ukraines-most-vulnerable-district-as-a-key-brigade-melts-down/?sh=69e14f9e16fe

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/

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Apr 24Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Oh Syrsky you butcher...

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Yup. An awful commander: demanding military discipline in a military service....

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It's almost as if he has a war to fight.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Two updates in a row… many thanks, Tom! Even if the first have a pessimistic tone, is as always very valuable (IMHO).

Regarding “political” units in a modern Army reminds me of our (latest) civil war in 1936-39. The side that had militarised and under control the political volunteer units won; the one with even in its best moments hadn’t all controlled, lost. Is a point.

Of course that isn’t the only one reason to win/lose a war, put helps a lot.

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Thank you for the update. Excuse my ignorance, but what is meant by Pravi Sector Boys (and girls?) missing some context here. But I get the sarcasm.

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I'm (mis)spelling it with 'Pravi Sector'. Correct would be Pravyi Sektor.... essentially, a lose coalition of right-wing, even fascist and ultranationalist groups, organised into a political party. They've established their own militias already in 2014, and these fought independently until the autumn 2022, when reformed as the 67th Mech.

(BTW, there was a talk that the 46th Airborne was created in similar fashion, but meanwhile this is widely denied.)

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Thanks. Strange that these rightwingers are so poor on discipline, I always thought Waffen SS was great on that. But…

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Apr 24·edited Apr 24

Sorry for asking this Tom, but what makes you think there are any fascists in Ukraine? I haven't seen and never heard somebody in UA declared predominance over any other nation in the world, or call to conquer, occupy any neighbouring territories. What's wrong with nationalism?

Meanwhile, despite a popularity of Pravyi Sector in Ukraine in the past during the revolution in 2013-2014, it was lead by untrustworthy suspicious people, like some other similar political movements in UA, which betrayed the support Pravyi Sector had and played political games in the interests of other pro-kremlin parties

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Apr 24·edited Apr 24

Fascism is dictatorship of a social group over individuals. It is not necessarily racist. May be even as mild as "those people are not intelligent enough to let them vote in elections" or not as mild with "whoever criticizes us is a traitor".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism

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Apr 24Liked by Sarcastosaurus

“What's wrong with nationalism?”

All semantics, of course, but nationalism is not the same as patriotism in modern parlance. Patriotism is having pride in/ affinity for one’s country. Nationalism is more exclusionary, and focuses more on who can claim to be the “true” owners of a national character. (See white nationalists, Christian nationalists, etc. in the U.S. as an example)

So a group of Ukrainians willing to use other insufficiently-patriotic (as defined by them) Ukrainians as cannon fodder might be seen as (ultra) nationalist.

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Where you see "nationalism" in using insufficiently-patriotic Ukrainians as cannon fodder, I see only war crimes. The same happens in whole country where armed criminals in military uniform kidnap, threaten with guns, torture civil unwealthy men and before without sufficient training, ammunition used to send such men directly on front lines as cannon fodder as you say. While hundreds of thousands of law enforcement personnel, more than a million of military personnel in the rear hired, trained and paid for many years to protect civilians never saw a war in their life.

You know, Ukrainians don't strive to go to army now, even patriotic warriors, not because they are afraid, but because of terrific conditions created after beginning of full scale ruzz invasion. ZSU it's not even close to NATO military standards, there is no such procedure even during a war as "after action review", criminal liability for ordinary soldiers has been raised significantly in 2022 for practically any misconduct they can be jailed while the officers were exempt from any liability for issuing even criminal or incompetent orders, any personnel or material losses. Even more to all of that there are no sufficient weapons supply from closest allies.

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Just to be clear, I was suggesting an answer to your question about the contemporary meaning of nationalism. I have zero visibility into the operational realities of the ZSU. But it does seem (from far away) like there is a concerted effort underway to move the ZSU towards more internal accountability and operational rigor (so, more "fairness") which, based on your comment, sounds like a worthwhile goal. I hope this is being done in-part to address some of the very issues you bring up around many Ukrainian's lack of trust in the fairness of how conscription, training and deployment are being handled.

Never having served, but having some experience in organizational change in other contexts, I can only imagine how difficult it must be to make these kinds of fundamental cultural and operational changes to an armed force in the middle of an existential full-scale conflict.

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Apr 25·edited Apr 25

In Ukraine vast majority of people is confident that's not about difficulties in fundamental cultural or operational changes to an armed forces, but political will of people in charge now who don't care about changes even if it confronts to convincing social request.

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In response to your question, I cannot but recommend you finding a good definition of fascism.

Most of those I know are characterised by the use of expressions like 'far right', 'authoritarian', 'ultranationalist' ideologies, insistent on social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for their 'higher purposes', racism, xenophobia and similar extremism.

....none of which means the gangs in question 'must' wear swastikas, brown shirts, or Hitler-style mustaches.

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Apr 24·edited Apr 24

Do we really need to find a definitions of fascism if almost all Europe and not only less than hundred years ago greatly suffered from fascism? In my opinion, it was the most noticeable and distinct experience people perceived than any definition you can find to read.

Sorry, I'm not aware who you know with described characteristics, but I never noticed in Ukraine any sign of racism, xenophobia and similar extremism, not even 'authoritarian' regarding people outside of government power, 'ultranationalist' ideologies, insistent on social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for their 'higher purposes'.

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Yes, we do. Precisely because Fascists are experts in pretending they're saving nations, especially democracies.

And, sadly, have seen enough of racism and other extremist idiotism in Ukraine. Arguably, not as much as in Austria, but still.

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Well as an actual Ukrainian who's been here for the entire duration of this war (that is since 2014), what the fuck are you even talking about, no racism or similar extremism?

Pravoseks took part in the parliamentary election (and lost miserably), they've been raiding the gay prides held in Kyiv every year since 2015 (which always resulted in them getting their asses kicked by the cops), they protested outside the Rada every five minutes for like three years (the protests usually consisted of demanding monkey brained fascist shit from the government then burning some tires and tossing some flares), they even managed to form a few actual paramilitaries scattered around the country (their heaviest presence was along the Romanian border and in Odesa Oblast) that tried to take control of the smuggling routes away from the local organized crime and bent local police departments - and actually fuckin fought those cops too, as in shot at them and threw grenades. There is absolutely positively no way you could not know who the Pravyy Sektor assholes were if you were here for any length of time in between roughly 2015 and mid to late 2017.

And yes, believe it or not, Ukrainians aren't a nation composed entirely of the Orientalist trope of the noble savage. We are, shockingly enough, capable of being total fuckin idiots, which may lead to being afflicted by fascism and by stalinism and any other cognitive cancer that happens to the Real People of the first world. Pravoseks were an example of just this happening.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the context!! Good to know Syrskyi is trying to reorganize these units.

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How can the 47th still fight after so much action on the counter offesive in zaporizhia and then the defense in avdiivka? also i dont know if you know this or not but i have been researching and i found that the losses from ukraine and russian in the counter offesive where more or less equal how accurate is that?

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Unlikely as the Russian general got demoted for criticism and afterwards they rushed more or less the entire VDV there to counterattack at Robotyne, while Ukrainians didn't rotate.

Of course losses were heavy as artillery man were used as infantry.

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Apr 24Liked by Sarcastosaurus

While I fully understand the idea that aid pledged does not equal aid received, I am seriously thinking the US aid is going to get there a lot faster than most people think. I am no longer in the service, but I have friends that are, and I hear things. It is really sounding like the Pentagon stacked the deck for this initial push and that Ukraine is going to get a lot of stuff fast. Yes our system can be retarded, yes it can get delayed. But, and please bear with me on this as I get all Red, White and Blue here, when the US decides to move stuff, we MOVE. No one, and I do mean no one, on this planet can do what we can do when we get the go order to make things go from point a to point b. This is sounding like lots of stuff has been prepo'd, and things have been set up so that when go time comes we GO. They are talking about emptying our Prepo stocks and moving stuff to backfill so that they can get stuff there faster. I may be over hopeful, and I will be the first to say "we will see". But I too have those odd feelings, like your little toe, and I'm getting one on this. I hope I'm right.

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Well, even if they've stacked it right at the border: there's still over 1,000km for all that stuff to reach the frontline...

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Apr 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

True, but still, every second and meter counts right now. Having it ready to go can mean days and not weeks. The first C-17 left the US and landed at Razom AB on the day Biden signed the bill into law. That means they had this primed to go. Yes, once in Ukraine it has more distance to go, but there is someone breathing fire down the neck of Transcom to get this stuff moved yesterday. Which is nice.

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Apr 25·edited Apr 25

They already knew it would pass the Senate for instance, and could be arleady workig on making it available. Senate vote was 79 to 18, not actually close. In th House of Representatives the vote was 165 to 151. There's just that unusual system about a small minority causing "The Speaker" who himself was among those voting No in the House of Representatives, to not allow a vote previously, thwarting democracy, as they like to do in that wing of the party. Even the House vote would have been known, and processes could easily begin upon hearing there would be a vote. Republicans have a slim majority in the House and a majority of Republicans voted against the aid, but lost the vote. It put's them in a difficult position politically. A majority of Republican Senators voted for the aid.

Interesting in terms of war, the package features long range weapons but to be used only to repel Russian invasion of Ukraine, not to attack inside Russia. Europe is less reluctant on that issue. A concentration of US long range arms on the task of driving Russian forces back can seem like an effective deterrent, and doesn't preclude Crimea and the bridge; along with hopefully effective air defense of Kharkiv,

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Thanks Tom this didn't sound / look good

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