Suplement: The 'Aha' Moment(s) (UPDATED)

Turns out, the GenStab-U has decided to disband the 67th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU. Or at least something like ‘disband a part then re-organise it a new’.

The brigade’s PR-department is bitterly complaining, ‘motives behind these actions are unknown to us’ - and explains this decision with something like ‘politically-coloured decision-making’ (see: ‘…perhaps some believe that dispersing DUK Right Sector…’ etc.).

Ukrainska Pravda, though, says, there were ‘inspections’ and ‘transfers of soldiers who were the backbone of this unit’ - ‘after the loss of some positions in the direction of Chasiv Yar’.

….which I read as: ‘…after it abandoned its positions and ran away’.

Indeed, a soldier interviewed by the UP, claims the, ‘brigade maintained some sort of autonomy under Valerii Zaluzhyi, but Oleksandr Sirskyi required order and discipline. They suddenly had to live according to military patterns, and commanders without necessary military rank were replaced. The volunteers saw it as the destruction of the movement, but in fact, it is a standardization.’

Oh my… imagine! Poor Pravi Sector-boys (and girls): while facing the Russian war of extermination of Ukraine, they were forced to organise and serve as troops of a regular unit of a regular armed force, and to subject themselves to military discipline. Indeed, to follow orders from above and hold their positions - and that irrespective of being members of the Pravi Sector, and instead of doing whatever they want, like pushing inexperienced buddies into forward positions?

…what was that bad, bad, bad Sirsky, ‘The Butcher’, thinking to himself when expecting the Pravi Sector to behave like a unit of the ZSU?

So unfair and, clearly, this cannot but be a political decision….

Really… I can only hope the characters in question are sentenced to 15 years of peeling potatoes and cleaning public toilettes around Kyiv. And that this is the final chapter of politically-motivated units of the ZSU.

***

The other piece of ‘news’ is the reason for the Russian break-through at Ocheretyne. According to MilitaryLand.net, the Russians did something they never-ever did before: attacked at the time units were rotated in and out of important positions.

The 47th Mech was on the way out, another unit (115th Mech?) on the way in, i.e. in the process of taking over.

….and, of course, the - already exhausted - 47th was then rushed back, and now has to pay in blood another failure at the levels of security and command.

A) At security level because, first and foremost, this rotation should’ve remained secret from the Russians. Nevertheless, they’ve been informed about it, and then on time to stage their attack (and that, apparently, at the joint of the sector formerly held by the 47th and that still held by the 129th TD Brigade and the Skala Battalion). And,

B) at command level because whoever was in charge of this rotation has obviously ignored the fact that it is already since July 2022 that if the Russians have achieved any kind of a significant advance, then by exploiting a rotation of ZSU’s units (the best example would be that of the Bakhmut, the fall of which began with the fall of Soledar as a result of rotation of two ZSU units).

That said: the OSG Tavriya has recently (last two-three weeks) run a number of rotations - all of them without any kind or problems. Just for example: the 67th was whiskered out of Chasiv Yar and replaced by another brigade without even a trace of a problem. Thus, the command-level problem is unlikely to be an issue related to its HQ (i.e. this time this does not look like ‘faggot generals’).

UPDATES:

1.) the 47th Mech has meanwhile issued an official statement according to which it was not directly involved in the mess that enabled the Russian break-through. But, yes, it’s back to the frontline, on the southern side of the resulting salient, defending Berdychi. Of course, it’s deploying its Bradleys north and west as necessary.

2.) As of this morning, the Russians seem to have at least entered Novobakhmutivka, if not captured the entire village. Novobakhmutivka is south of Ocheretyne, and an advance in this direction means the Russians are widening their penetration of the ZSU’s frontline.

3.) So far, there are no indications for any Russian advances west of Ocheretyne, which is something like ‘the only good news amid bad news’. That said, two days ago (on 21 April, at the peak of their initial advance), the Russians had to be pushed back (by Bradleys of the 47th; see the scene captured on the screen-grab below) from the western entrance of Ocheretyne.

***

Well, at least one thing is sure: it is going to be in this area - in the Ocheretyne area - that we’re going to see if the VSRF has any kind of serious offensive capability left.

If it has, then the Russian Group of Forces Tsentr is going to rush the VKS forward: Su-30s and Su-35s are going to dominate the air, forcing PSU’s MiGs, Sukhois, and SAMs away from the battlefield, so Su-34s can fly direct air strikes on ZSU positions. Meanwhile, Su-25s and Ka-52s of the VKS are going to roam the battlefield at low altitude and see to increase the damage and spread chaos, thus clearing the way for ever additional assault groups. Foremost: they’re going to deploy their BM-27s, BM-30s, Iskanders, and Su-34s to ‘seal’ the battlefield: to prevent Ukrainian reinforcements from reaching it and establishing blocking positions in front of the Russian advance.

In such case, in the coming days we’re going to see even more videos like the one from which this screen-grab is coming, and showing a pair of Russian Su-25s roaming the sky over Ivanivske - because the ZSU troops there do not even have MANPADs to shoot back at them:

Indeed: then we’re going to see even more of videos showing their Ka-52s and Mi-28s over the battlefield, too.

That said, that’s a ‘possible option’. Whether this is already the case: no idea.

Right now, the only thing certain is that the Group Tsentr is already trying to ‘roll over’ the ZSU positions immediately north and south of its penetration. To widen its penetration so to secure logistic lines along the railway berm to Ocheretyne.

….and if not: well, then the Russians aren’t going to get very far beyond Ocheretyne, but Ukrainians are going to have a ‘big sting’ in the centre of their frontline.