So, if anything the Russians say can be trusted any more, Prigozhin’s glorious ‘march of justice’ is over. Supposedly in exchange for dismissals of Shoygu and Gerasimov, and through mediation of Lukashenko, Prigozhin has converted this affair into a pathetic Russian telenovela... I'm just surprised it wasn't aired in Spanish...
He could have negotiated for a peaceful power transfer during the 2024 elections. We'll see if that is true from how the Russian TV covers Prigozhin - whether they start praising him.
Может это попытка снова атаковать Киев в этом составе?
Или это способ выставить тройку (Путина, Лукашенко и Пригожина) в хорошем свете для жителей россии... Неужели россияне (которые поддерживали Путина) продолжают это делать... Где их мозги
Вагнерівці уникнули включення до рашистської армії. Путін гадає що уникнув небезпеки, виславши Пригожина до Білорусі. А Лукашенко отримав сильного союзника для майбутнього протистояння з ерефією. Це буде наступна частина марлезонського балету.
I don't think they care about what the people in Russia or anywhere else in the World truly think of them.
In Russia, according to their terminology, they have a population. In contrast with other nations where there are civilians of a nation, population sounds what it is, an asset, a source of power and money, and the possibility of troubles. It has to be managed.
As Karaganov wrote it some days ago: "I have written many times, and I am not the only one, that great states without a great idea cease to be such or simply go nowhere. History is strewn with shadows and graves of powers that have lost it. This idea must be created from above, not relying, as fools or lazy people do, on the fact that it will come from below. It must meet the deep values and aspirations of the people and, most importantly, lead us all forward."
Is it truly over though? Got a feeling we may soon learn Prigozhin was "backstabbed" by the MOD and now has no choice but to declare the agreement void and to advance towards his next objective, absolutely spontaneously and not pre-planned at all. May be wrong but would definitely fit the man's style.
Incredible to see this unfold. And as you say, virtually unreformable. If it wasn’t for people like the Freedom for Russia legion, I would have no hope for the future...
Yes the wagner's days are numbered I have serious doubts any will make it to Africa, Prigozhin exiled in Belarus really from what I know the FSB virtually controls Belarus so if he last 2 weeks there I'd be surprised, I really thought he was just a bit smarter than that
So basically Prigozhin sold out his Wagner PMC. They get to serve and die in the Russian army, he gets to 'live in exile' filthy rich in some villa in Belarus.
But still I suspect his story will not have a happy ending. Putin does not have the reputation of forgetting or forgiving betrayals. Prigozhin might very well be found floating in his pool in a few months time.
Вони воювали в Бахмуті, і давно пішли звідти, побиті, пошарпані та знесилені, щоб перепочити та набратися сил, до тилу в ОРДЛО. Зараз на фронті воює рашистська армія. Тому нічого і не змінилося.
Цими днями вагнерівці вийшли з ОРДЛО до Ростова та Воронежа. Логічно, що вони підуть до Білорусі. У агонізуючій імперії зрештою найтяжче б'ються найбільш близькі народи, і Лука це передчуває, потребуючи союзників. Пригожин теж потребує союзника у протистоянні з Шойгу та Герасимовим.
It looks incredibly strange: "exchange for dismissals of Shoigu and Gerasimov..." Prigozhin insisted on the dismissal of these gentlemen because he wanted to have his own people in the MoD and this definitely could increase his political influence (or, at least, money income). If he goes exile then dismissal of Shoigu/Gerasimov has zero sense for him
IMHO it`s not as simple as that. Let me express my hypothesis whether you will believe it or not. 1. To get to Moscow without any substantial resistance would be impossible for Prigozhin`s troops without help. 2. Prigozhin is not so stupid to pretend to submit the whole state machine of Russia himself without the help of secret services that actually rule Russia for years and years. Prigozhin was used by some group of the FSB (or maybe GRU) as an instrument to frighten Putler in such a way to make him obedient and to make a deal. It seems evident to me that Putler was frightened so much as to leave Moscow in a hurry after declaring Prigozhin and his troops as traitors. . 3. The conditions of the deal now are unknown but surely they were unpleasant to Putler and were discussed for several hours before Putler gave his consent. Otherwise I suppose he was reminded the fate of Khrushchev. 4. The immediate result of all this jazz is the demonstration of Putler`s personal weakness, cowardice and his dependence on FSB and the like.
If I was a Wagnerite ... I'd definitely not return to a "field camp" where me and my mates would be sitting ducks for "Russian revenge justice" .. hell no
Есть ли подтверждение что именно на фронте была борьба между Вагнер и МО РФ в связи с этой ситуацией? Несколько пабликов писали, что стычки были, но без подтверждения.
Has he already left for Belarus? What is he going to do there? Can you live in exile there and spend billions (the money he sold his Wagner for) for fun and/or do something else? He can be arrested any time. Unless the real aim is for Prigozhin to arrest Lukashenka and rule Belarus as a viceroy of Putin or as another Kadyrov with a kingdom :)) This is all phony. Let’s see what happens in the morning. One hint was that yesterday VKRS didn’t “collapse” at any point at the front and continued attacking as usual.
The Wagnerites are needed at the front.The former convicts will be given a chance to redeem themselves once again. That is for sure - why arrest them en masse!? On the other side, we wouldn’t know for sure what happened for a long time. Was it that the real aim for the coup was just to arrest Gerasimov who managed to flee? Or the backers of Prigozhin (obviously he was over prepared ) got cold feet? Or suddenly they got patriotic - better Russia with Pudding than no Russia and no Pudding. We don’t know ....
I don’t think Prigozhin would ever have attempted this without having, or at least hoping to have, lots of supporters inside VSRF, FSB, etc. And I don’t think Putin will rest without finding all of those real, probable or possible collaborators. Looks like lots of fun in store for Russian top brass.
Question to Tom: is there any credible evidence of VKS actually hitting Vagner columns?
I'm a friend of "avoid bloodshed" but wtf...this months-long media crusade against the Russian DoD, the apparently weeks-long planning of this "March of Justice", the open call for a coup against Putin, the movement of thousands of men and Vehicles across Russia only to end up with nothing at all?
Anything that Prigo "negotiated" he could have had without all the hassle. Putin gets everything he wanted, Prigo (in principle, nothing).
From a distance it was really just a far too elaborate bluff.
Seen from a distance, Prigo really only wanted Shiogu's and Gerassimov's head and after Putin got behind them and didn't change his mind until the evening, Prigo got up from the table and left.
According to the official report from Moscow, nothing is changing at the DoD, wait and see if that will be confirmed in the coming days and Prigo has received nothing except his asylum in picturesque Belarus and the amnesty.
We will never know the true reasons for Prigo's abandonment, but I can currently only imagine that either the elites who must have obviously supported him didn't break cover when it came down to it, or he thought he had no chance anyway ( which is implausible for me after yesterday's raid up to Moscow).
In fact, for whatever reason, he didn't have the guts to pull it off in the end. Everything of the last few months has been in vain for him, he is a rich man in Belarus with no influence and an uncertain lifespan and in my mind he betrayed most of his troops which he left alone after all. GG
I'm thinking the same. The whole thing was really wierd.
It seems that there was no end game. Suppose Prighozin went into Moscow. Putin and his top aides have left. The bureaucracy stayed home. Prighozin can't run the country by himself. He can't chase Putin all over the country. It's reminiscent of Napoleon's invasion of Russia. He took Moscow and the Tsar went to Saint Petersburg. Napoleon waited for the Tsar to surrender but he never did. Prighozin can't loot and destroy Moscow - it's his country. He can't sit in Moscow forever - at some point he is going to run out of supplies. It seems maybe it was a bluff and when the bluff failed Prighozin didn't know what to do.
The other possibility, maybe less likely, is that in the end he didn't have it in him to kill the king.
People say this incident weakens Putin relative to the FSB and maybe other government groups. I think it reduces the chance of another militia challenging him. The members of any militia are going to see how Wagner was abandoned and are going to be very hesitant to put themselves in the same position.
Absolutely right. If Prigo wanted to govern, the coup would be doomed to failure from the outset because those in power had perfected the art of flight and would have ruled the country from elsewhere. I didn't expect that either.
I expected (but these are all pointless mind games) that Prigo should make it to Moscow and take control or block the centers of power that the population and the army will see as a sign that Putin and co have lost control and run away are what might have led to other parts of the population and especially the army siding with him and becoming active.
Then it would be even for Putin and co. become difficult but meanwhile it's all just "would, have, could"
He could have taken the control of Rostov and Voronezh, efficiently cutting the Russian army from its supplies and taking the control over some natural resources production. The army would prefer to surrender to him than to Ukraine. He gets much of the army's hardware while Putin sits in Moscow with only the old mothballed tanks from storage fields.
This seems like the best strategy. He could have taken over the whole military and then Putain would have become an empty shell. Why he caved, we have no idea.
* Putin could have promised to help Prigozhin in the presidential elections of 2024. However, Putin cannot be trusted.
* The US intelligence tells that they knew about the coup 2 weeks ago. FSB should have known that as well. This means FSB was behind the coup, aligned with Lukashenko, and all the thing aimed at putting Putin under control by showing him that he is vulnerable, and if he does not obey the next revolt will be real.
I believe that there must be something else in this deal that nobody tells. Anyway, the last 30hrs showed how pathetic this regime is, as well as the Russian opposition abroad that has lost any clue of what is going on in Russia.
Probably but I think that regular soldiers and low ranking officers fight mostly because of money they got and direct commander. They probably don't care who pays money as long as it is a lot. So, I guess that they would fight if the tactical commanders is still the same. The problem for MD generals would be to convince brigade level commanders to follow orders.
He could have negotiated for a peaceful power transfer during the 2024 elections. We'll see if that is true from how the Russian TV covers Prigozhin - whether they start praising him.
Есть ролики, где люди кричат "ПОЗОР" приехавшей полиции в Ростове, после отхода Вагнер...
С какой целью Пригожина отправят в Беларусь?
Может это попытка снова атаковать Киев в этом составе?
Или это способ выставить тройку (Путина, Лукашенко и Пригожина) в хорошем свете для жителей россии... Неужели россияне (которые поддерживали Путина) продолжают это делать... Где их мозги
Єто был риторический вопрос...
Вагнерівці уникнули включення до рашистської армії. Путін гадає що уникнув небезпеки, виславши Пригожина до Білорусі. А Лукашенко отримав сильного союзника для майбутнього протистояння з ерефією. Це буде наступна частина марлезонського балету.
1.) Something like 'exile'.....or whatever....
2.) Nope. The Russians lack the troops and arms for anything of that kind.
3.) After this affair, it's obvious that Putin & Co KG GesmbH, just can't care less what are the Russians thinking about them.
The same is valid for Prigozhin.
Can't see any attack from Belarus. They would first need to transport heavy weapons there, as they did before the invasion.
But now Ukraine would have plenty of lead time, and, being on interior lines, could move their own forces up quicker.
I don't think they care about what the people in Russia or anywhere else in the World truly think of them.
In Russia, according to their terminology, they have a population. In contrast with other nations where there are civilians of a nation, population sounds what it is, an asset, a source of power and money, and the possibility of troubles. It has to be managed.
As Karaganov wrote it some days ago: "I have written many times, and I am not the only one, that great states without a great idea cease to be such or simply go nowhere. History is strewn with shadows and graves of powers that have lost it. This idea must be created from above, not relying, as fools or lazy people do, on the fact that it will come from below. It must meet the deep values and aspirations of the people and, most importantly, lead us all forward."
Is it truly over though? Got a feeling we may soon learn Prigozhin was "backstabbed" by the MOD and now has no choice but to declare the agreement void and to advance towards his next objective, absolutely spontaneously and not pre-planned at all. May be wrong but would definitely fit the man's style.
И какая же его следующая цель?
His life is worth nothing, that's sure.
Incredible to see this unfold. And as you say, virtually unreformable. If it wasn’t for people like the Freedom for Russia legion, I would have no hope for the future...
Freedom for Russia Legion is a pile of far-right trash, even worse then Wagnerites. They are a tool, no more.
FRL is not at war and RVC under Ukrainian governance. So no hope for their nation
Yes the wagner's days are numbered I have serious doubts any will make it to Africa, Prigozhin exiled in Belarus really from what I know the FSB virtually controls Belarus so if he last 2 weeks there I'd be surprised, I really thought he was just a bit smarter than that
So basically Prigozhin sold out his Wagner PMC. They get to serve and die in the Russian army, he gets to 'live in exile' filthy rich in some villa in Belarus.
But still I suspect his story will not have a happy ending. Putin does not have the reputation of forgetting or forgiving betrayals. Prigozhin might very well be found floating in his pool in a few months time.
В этом всем главное - чтобы они ушли из Украины... А этого не происходит
Why do you think so? Wagner's group has left Ukraine.
Вся? Тогда очень сильно оголился фронт... Но судя по обстрелам - ничего не изменилось.
Вони воювали в Бахмуті, і давно пішли звідти, побиті, пошарпані та знесилені, щоб перепочити та набратися сил, до тилу в ОРДЛО. Зараз на фронті воює рашистська армія. Тому нічого і не змінилося.
Цими днями вагнерівці вийшли з ОРДЛО до Ростова та Воронежа. Логічно, що вони підуть до Білорусі. У агонізуючій імперії зрештою найтяжче б'ються найбільш близькі народи, і Лука це передчуває, потребуючи союзників. Пригожин теж потребує союзника у протистоянні з Шойгу та Герасимовим.
I don't think so. They are going back to Ukraine.
Nope. There soon will be a new Wagner base in Asipovichy, Mogilev region, Belarus.
https://verstka.media/v-belarusi-stroyat-lagerya-dlya-vagnera
It looks incredibly strange: "exchange for dismissals of Shoigu and Gerasimov..." Prigozhin insisted on the dismissal of these gentlemen because he wanted to have his own people in the MoD and this definitely could increase his political influence (or, at least, money income). If he goes exile then dismissal of Shoigu/Gerasimov has zero sense for him
We will see if he goes
IMHO it`s not as simple as that. Let me express my hypothesis whether you will believe it or not. 1. To get to Moscow without any substantial resistance would be impossible for Prigozhin`s troops without help. 2. Prigozhin is not so stupid to pretend to submit the whole state machine of Russia himself without the help of secret services that actually rule Russia for years and years. Prigozhin was used by some group of the FSB (or maybe GRU) as an instrument to frighten Putler in such a way to make him obedient and to make a deal. It seems evident to me that Putler was frightened so much as to leave Moscow in a hurry after declaring Prigozhin and his troops as traitors. . 3. The conditions of the deal now are unknown but surely they were unpleasant to Putler and were discussed for several hours before Putler gave his consent. Otherwise I suppose he was reminded the fate of Khrushchev. 4. The immediate result of all this jazz is the demonstration of Putler`s personal weakness, cowardice and his dependence on FSB and the like.
prigo got the job he wanted, though in belarus, not russia, but it's close enough
definitely better than some shithole in africa
he might have nicked shoigu, but alas was too slow to shot down him flying out of rostov
If I was a Wagnerite ... I'd definitely not return to a "field camp" where me and my mates would be sitting ducks for "Russian revenge justice" .. hell no
Есть ли подтверждение что именно на фронте была борьба между Вагнер и МО РФ в связи с этой ситуацией? Несколько пабликов писали, что стычки были, но без подтверждения.
I doubt they will get any choice.
Has he already left for Belarus? What is he going to do there? Can you live in exile there and spend billions (the money he sold his Wagner for) for fun and/or do something else? He can be arrested any time. Unless the real aim is for Prigozhin to arrest Lukashenka and rule Belarus as a viceroy of Putin or as another Kadyrov with a kingdom :)) This is all phony. Let’s see what happens in the morning. One hint was that yesterday VKRS didn’t “collapse” at any point at the front and continued attacking as usual.
No idea, and it doesn't matter any more.
The Wagnerites are needed at the front.The former convicts will be given a chance to redeem themselves once again. That is for sure - why arrest them en masse!? On the other side, we wouldn’t know for sure what happened for a long time. Was it that the real aim for the coup was just to arrest Gerasimov who managed to flee? Or the backers of Prigozhin (obviously he was over prepared ) got cold feet? Or suddenly they got patriotic - better Russia with Pudding than no Russia and no Pudding. We don’t know ....
I don’t think Prigozhin would ever have attempted this without having, or at least hoping to have, lots of supporters inside VSRF, FSB, etc. And I don’t think Putin will rest without finding all of those real, probable or possible collaborators. Looks like lots of fun in store for Russian top brass.
Question to Tom: is there any credible evidence of VKS actually hitting Vagner columns?
I'm a friend of "avoid bloodshed" but wtf...this months-long media crusade against the Russian DoD, the apparently weeks-long planning of this "March of Justice", the open call for a coup against Putin, the movement of thousands of men and Vehicles across Russia only to end up with nothing at all?
Anything that Prigo "negotiated" he could have had without all the hassle. Putin gets everything he wanted, Prigo (in principle, nothing).
From a distance it was really just a far too elaborate bluff.
Seen from a distance, Prigo really only wanted Shiogu's and Gerassimov's head and after Putin got behind them and didn't change his mind until the evening, Prigo got up from the table and left.
According to the official report from Moscow, nothing is changing at the DoD, wait and see if that will be confirmed in the coming days and Prigo has received nothing except his asylum in picturesque Belarus and the amnesty.
We will never know the true reasons for Prigo's abandonment, but I can currently only imagine that either the elites who must have obviously supported him didn't break cover when it came down to it, or he thought he had no chance anyway ( which is implausible for me after yesterday's raid up to Moscow).
In fact, for whatever reason, he didn't have the guts to pull it off in the end. Everything of the last few months has been in vain for him, he is a rich man in Belarus with no influence and an uncertain lifespan and in my mind he betrayed most of his troops which he left alone after all. GG
I'm thinking the same. The whole thing was really wierd.
It seems that there was no end game. Suppose Prighozin went into Moscow. Putin and his top aides have left. The bureaucracy stayed home. Prighozin can't run the country by himself. He can't chase Putin all over the country. It's reminiscent of Napoleon's invasion of Russia. He took Moscow and the Tsar went to Saint Petersburg. Napoleon waited for the Tsar to surrender but he never did. Prighozin can't loot and destroy Moscow - it's his country. He can't sit in Moscow forever - at some point he is going to run out of supplies. It seems maybe it was a bluff and when the bluff failed Prighozin didn't know what to do.
The other possibility, maybe less likely, is that in the end he didn't have it in him to kill the king.
People say this incident weakens Putin relative to the FSB and maybe other government groups. I think it reduces the chance of another militia challenging him. The members of any militia are going to see how Wagner was abandoned and are going to be very hesitant to put themselves in the same position.
Absolutely right. If Prigo wanted to govern, the coup would be doomed to failure from the outset because those in power had perfected the art of flight and would have ruled the country from elsewhere. I didn't expect that either.
I expected (but these are all pointless mind games) that Prigo should make it to Moscow and take control or block the centers of power that the population and the army will see as a sign that Putin and co have lost control and run away are what might have led to other parts of the population and especially the army siding with him and becoming active.
Then it would be even for Putin and co. become difficult but meanwhile it's all just "would, have, could"
He could have taken the control of Rostov and Voronezh, efficiently cutting the Russian army from its supplies and taking the control over some natural resources production. The army would prefer to surrender to him than to Ukraine. He gets much of the army's hardware while Putin sits in Moscow with only the old mothballed tanks from storage fields.
This seems like the best strategy. He could have taken over the whole military and then Putain would have become an empty shell. Why he caved, we have no idea.
I don't know. Some options:
* Putin could have promised to help Prigozhin in the presidential elections of 2024. However, Putin cannot be trusted.
* The US intelligence tells that they knew about the coup 2 weeks ago. FSB should have known that as well. This means FSB was behind the coup, aligned with Lukashenko, and all the thing aimed at putting Putin under control by showing him that he is vulnerable, and if he does not obey the next revolt will be real.
24 hours passed and the mutiny is over...
Or not... New season is already in production.
I believe that there must be something else in this deal that nobody tells. Anyway, the last 30hrs showed how pathetic this regime is, as well as the Russian opposition abroad that has lost any clue of what is going on in Russia.
Вернется тот Вагнер обратно на фронт? Больше интересует Украина и последствия для нее
Думаю что да, но уже не как Вагнер. Не уверен, что для Украины это что-то изменит в лучшую сторону.
I doubt Wagner will be motivated to fight like before, especially as they will probably be commanded by Russian army officers not their own.
Probably but I think that regular soldiers and low ranking officers fight mostly because of money they got and direct commander. They probably don't care who pays money as long as it is a lot. So, I guess that they would fight if the tactical commanders is still the same. The problem for MD generals would be to convince brigade level commanders to follow orders.