One thing is sure about this conflict: it's incredibly expensive. Billions of USD were spent those two days by simply launching SAMs and ballistic missiles. A modern day War of Attrition.
Oh, you think two days of burning cash in the desert is expensive? Russia’s been playing “World War I cosplay” in Ukraine for four years straight. Thousands of drones, missiles, tanks, and human lives — all wasted in a daily meat grinder just to redraw 20th-century borders. A war so expensive, they had to start raiding washing machines for microchips. But hey, at least they got a few villages no one can pronounce.
Yes, but "Gollum" still sees the jackpot at the end of the rainbow (the rebirth of the USSR under a different name). For this he will risk everything, as long as it doesn't hurt him personally.
"..the effectiveness of IASF air strikes on Iran is also still gauged exclusively by amount of satellite photographs showing destruction of (essentially) ‘big hangars’"
Indeed. One wonders where all the commercial satellite imagery of strikes on Israel is for BDA/verification. Surely the noble corps of Western democratic fact checkers like BBC Verify ought to be publishing this. Or maybe they don't want to. Or maybe they can't. And if so, one wonders why.
Great job Tom! I have a big request. Please tell us the characteristics of the missiles (launch method, firing range, warhead power, guidance accuracy, flight speed), what sides are firing at each other and whether they use munitions with multiple warheads. I am especially interested in the Iranian ground-based hypersonic missiles you mentioned.
Considering that between Israel and Iran in a straight line there are "only" 1000 km, these missiles can be launched at Israel from deep inside Iranian territory.
Yes, so many bloody beginnings with no clear end in vision, end definitey not in sight... until smeone, when cornered, really fires it. The nuke. If they can start multiple wars, why not increase the stake?
As for the first part of this really great overview.. I believe that the death of so many top officials in first wave including some of them "at home" indicated poor preparation of Iran for this, despite all clear and public warnings.
It's enough to check the story of the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War ('Six Days War').
Until today, Israel (& fans) is claiming it was 'pre-emptive'.
...and although capturing all of the related Egyptian military documentation there was to capture: they've never found any kind of evidence for an Egyptian military plan to invade Israel.
By side that numerous IDF generals subsequently made clear statements in sense 'that with pre-emptive was bollocks', but: if there is no evidence Egyptians have had a military plan to invade Israel, all the talk about 'pre-emptive' is pure PRBS.
During the night from 13 to 14th June, the first more or less serious analyses of the consequences of the Israeli strike on the Iranian complex in Natanz arrived. The strike was directed at the power supply system, knocking out both transformers and backup generators, which most likely led to the shutdown of centrifuges, with dire consequences for many of them. The Natanz transformers/generators themselves are defenseless targets; only air defense could have saved them, but it did not work.
The radiation and chemical contamination reported in the news yesterday evening is local in nature and was caused by the destruction of the PFEP (EWOT) experimental plant (workshop) building. There are no direct signs of a hit on the underground main FEP (EUOT) plant, but there was at least one strike on the entrance to the underground complex with an unclear result. It should be noted that the majority of centrifuges at the main plant are outdated first- and second-generation centrifuges with low productivity, while at the experimental plant, most likely, a ninth-generation experimental centrifuge was destroyed.
Out of curiosity, what is the second school of analysis?
Also, it seems obvious to me now Netanyahu aimed for regime change regardless of history lessons that mass bombing rather strengthens population support than diminishes. From personal attacks on top command to strikes at oil industry all points to attempt to force regime change. Both sides are reduced now to flailing aimlessly at each other with no end in sight other expending all the ammo, and Allach and Jahweh alone know how deep each side ammo stores are (estimates of 2k to 20k IRBMs is basically wild mass guessing)
Another point is US stance, evidently Israel played Trump as "well meaning idiot"... Iranians didnt expect the attack because of ongoing talks with Trump, and now the talks are more dead than Iranian commanders.
Trump himself is trapped between two halves of MAGA base, religious right with armageddon complex and isolationists. Whatever he does, he will infuriate one half, or possibly both if he tries to straddle the line.
IMHO the regime change is just a PR red hering (=bullshit) for the public). If one wants to reach foreign people, one has to use their language. Bibi was speaking in English not Farsi.
Would you trust someone speaking to you in a foreign language?
His real aim is to be the dominant power in the region. His last major obstacle is mainly Iran. The Arabic states are no match for him.
What for one is the rebirth of the USSR under a different name is for the other Erez Israel.
Regarding Tom’s writing style. I think it is inherent to his strengths as an analyst. You will have to live with them if you want to continue with reading the blog.
I think I understand your POV, but sorry, sarcasm is an essential ingredient in Tom's reporting. The material is so negative and tragic, that (for me at least) the only recourse is to "enjoy" some black humor stimulated by the author's sarcasm to be able to get through the material. The current geo-political world sucks royally as does the political world in the U.S. where I live.
I didn’t lead with the compliment just to get to the criticism - the former carries far more weight than the latter. Any criticism I would voice is far outweighed by the appreciation I have for his insights.
I would not be here reading - and beyond that care enough to comment! - if Tom was not great and worthy of continually reading.
But I will reserve the right to quibble with sarcasm that can at times trend in the overbearing direction.
Great analysis from Tom with lots of detail, historical references and statistics. It was very interesting to read it all. But I still think that Iran is a theocratic church state led by pedophile maniacs that doesn't know why it exists on this planet. All losers are religious. The more religious a country is, the harder it is for people to live there. I think this is an absolute fact that most people will agree with. However, Iran is severely limited in its resources to implement all its ambitious plans. And Iran is so economically dependent on China that they simply cannot go very far, because almost the entire economy of Iran is in the hands of the Chinese. From 2010 to 2020, China supported Iran's economy with $400 billion, stretching these funds over 10 years, and then giving another $400 billion over the next 10 years. Taking and shitting on other countries, killing, raping, robbing, and carrying out terrorist attacks – this is the main task of such regimes. If this country does not appear on the world map, then everyone else will breathe a sigh of relief. Israel with its Zionist regime is also not a gift. Therefore, the evidence of cooperation through the financial elites of the Jews of the "Kremlin towers" with the Kremlin's Chekist bandits and financial swindlers like Trump speaks for itself. The cooperation between the US and the Kremlin on Syria and the exchange of intelligence are also proof of this. All to save "holy Israel" and cause maximum damage to the population and economy of these countries (Syria and Iraq).
I think we can agree on Iranian being a theocratic state (with some built in duality for government). However, that statement doesn’t tell us very much in itself. Theocratic states vary in their outlook and belief and behavior. So I think it is useful to consider what kind of theocratic state we are talking about. Its goals, its ambitions, it limitations. And of course how its population can live there.
Would you like the example of the losers Ukraine and Russia, which, thanks to the marauding elites and the believing stupid population, have sunk to the very bottom in the general race in economic and demographic terms over the past 30+ years? Yes, I criticize my country because I have the right to and I am not satisfied with many things. I am especially dissatisfied with the elites who have the same outlook on life as the Russian elites. Perhaps you could also give Brazil as an example? Brazil has never even achieved regional leadership despite its gigantic capabilities. The reason is the same - insane corruption, marauding elites, and a believing, stupid population. All of Latin America is a vivid example of how to lose everything. The same applies to Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay. This is a vivid example of how promising countries can be turned into shit. They were transformed into the likeness of Africa. Now let's take India, which the Western media calls the "most democratic country". With enormous help from the West, India has converted all this into $9 trillion in GDP for a population of 1.5 billion over the past 150 years. Besides, India is the dirtiest country, with insanely blatant religiosity and horrible habits. All this probably explains the failures of Indians, their incapacity for work, their incompetence compared to the Chinese.
Again, bravo, professor. Some minor correction though. Chile has been doing generally very well, all the rest of Latino guys are not that successful.
Besides the "marauding" elites (I like the expression), overpopulation is also a problem. Families in the third world countries gave too many birthes not thinking about future. They demand from goverment a better life while there are simply...too many kids. That especially hurtful in the not very competitive economies.
P.S. I have a question in return (a provicative one, sorry). Considering psycological and ethnical (90% Ashkenazi) unity of elites in Russia and Ukraine, considering very high similarity of both Slavic nations, millions of mixed marriges, better economical opportunities in Russia, and etc, would not it had been better for Ukraine to peacefully surrender in 2022 and join Russia again? A type of Union similar to the one with Belarus? Retrospecting, considering countless senseless deathes from both sides?
All who were part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union have fallen into general decline, degradation, and poverty. You are degenerates who can give the world nothing useful except hecatombs of corpses and millions of victims. Why should we unite with you to end up at the bottom with you? Modern Russia is far from being the Soviet Union. Russia's influence in the world is reduced to smearing shit on the wall of all other countries, but in reality it is a puppet and puppet of China in its confrontation with the West. Your elites are looters, criminals, and old KGB agents. These idiots are genetically incapable of building a successful country. In fact, the stupid idiot Putin could have raised Russia from its knees a hundred times, but since he is an idiot and a thief, he simply embezzled all the hundreds of billions of dollars from oil and gas revenues with his vertical of power. You have no prospects for the future, and your Russia will fall apart anyway, because it simply could not happen otherwise. All this will be accompanied by agony and bloodshed.
Bravo, professor! With one correction: China did not support Iran with 400 bln.
of money. It was buying oil, most likely, with discount.
I would also dare to advise to elaborate on Turkey. By words, Erdogan is cursing Israel while Turkish oil refineries supply Holy Land with their products.) Out of the recent, despite Erdogan rhetorics, big part of Israeli passengers planes found temporary asylum in....yes..Turkey.)))
Of course, China is not Mother Teresa, giving money away for nothing. They want cheap resources below market prices for their money, and in exchange for debts, they take control of the economy to get their money back. As for Erdogan and Turkey, they are the most ambitious player in this region. The countries of the greater Turan are not against joining because they were already in other alliances and received nothing in return. Although... I think the Chinese will ruin Turkey's plans for all of Central Asia.
I want to ask you as a professor of a professor: how does China manage to have good relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel at the same time? What do you think is the reason and why does it not work in the United States with its democracy?
Good question. I guess, "a soft power" approach works well. And hand on heart, it's economy mainly. Buying oil from Saudis and Iranians no matter how democratic or not the seller, selling very cheap goods to meet the needs of majotity of population in the corresponding countries, and etc. With Israel relations are also positive and neutral. I remember that never serially produced Lavi gave a certain input in J-10.
Bottom line: China is always giving good deals and never teach "how to live". Of course, USA are not happy about such advanced competitor. But even here, stupid political games prevail otherwise both countries benefit from each other. Last 3 decades of mutual trade gave China the biggest market in the world and many vital technologies, while US were successfully downing inflation with the cheap Chinese goods letting impoverishing US population (at least, substantial part of it) to make ends meet.
Thanks gents and professors for the rational and always entertaining exchange of views. I have a question, wouldn’t a campaign of soft power have been more helpful for Russian goals for Ukraine? It would take longer, but why not adapt the Chinese playbook? Which, I would advise Xi to follow with Taiwan and the S China Sea as well. It’s too late now for Ukraine, but with the States shit canning soft power in general, the time was right to exert influence.
A very good note. Indeed, "soft power" was the best scenario for Russia. However, the problem is the degenerating of elites that rule Russia. With corruption as a mainstay ideology one can't get very far. So, while USAid (that gave USD 5 bln for "democratization" of Ukraine) and similar US/EU agencies (no say nothing about private Deep State activists like Soros) were trying their best to separate UA far from RU, Russian corresponding ministries and agencies were simply stealing the money. Private Russian industrialists and bankers were doing good as a big part of UA economy was directly or indirectly owned by RU companies for mutual benefit of both countries. But everything related to state-owned or state-governed things from Russian side was a pure disaster. Starting with terrible corruption with regards to RU natural gas coming to Ukraine and ending with the support of criminal crook Yanukovich. Out of several scenarios RU authorities were always taking the worst.
A missed opportunity. Making Ukraine into something like an economic ally would have worked for Moscow, instead they have this mess. There was no “fast track” to the EU, let alone NATO, still isn’t.
The muscovites never used "soft power". They always used coercion, lies and fraud through the whole history and they simply know nothing else. This is the only language they speak and understand.
«A very good note. Indeed, "soft power" was the best scenario for Russia. However, the problem is the degenerating of elites that rule Russia. With corruption as a mainstay ideology one can't get very far. So, while USAid (that gave USD 5 bln for "democratization" of Ukraine) and similar US/EU agencies (no say nothing about private Deep State activists like Soros) were trying their best to separate UA far from RU, Russian corresponding ministries and agencies were simply stealing the money» – First, Russia has always been a country of slaves, thieves, orphans and widows. Some once had some illusions that Russia was capable of becoming a democracy. In fact, Russia is not capable of this for the simple reason that its population is quite savage, barbaric and has little to give in the civilizational sense. It was always only the conquered new territories that gave Russia any progress by giving it inventors or scientists. And that was the basis of its existence. And so it is a society of consumers and is incapable of even any messages to democracy and freedom. And all these protests in Moscow are purely operating and regulating processes that have no effect on anything in Russia. Russian society is very underdeveloped and primitive to the point of impossibility. Russian society is a society of slaves. Second, about George Soros, the deep state and its influence in the world: Soros is a mid-level figure on the world stage who is used as a scarecrow to intimidate the not-so-intelligent masses of the population. For example, if you look at Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Zuckerberg, or Bernard Arnault, Soros looks like a bum compared to them in terms of wealth and influence in the world. As for the deep state, everything is also very simple and there are no conspiracy theories: there are elites and there are everyone else. What does this mean? It means that the state apparatus of all these presidents, senators, and finance ministers is just a corrupt gasket between the moneybags and everyone else. The state is not one single corporation, as most people imagine it, but a collection of different corporations whose resources are then distributed by oligarchs at their own discretion. That's the whole conspiracy theory and the universal secret that is not a secret. The same is happening in China, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and other countries from East to West.The elite plunder, while everyone else sits quietly in the stall and obeys. Some rule by cunning, others by brute force.
Some Israeli UAVs in Iran have been launched from Azerbidjan. Azerbidjan would not do it without agreement from Turkey. And what about reaction of Saudis and other Arab countries? Do they try to force Trump to stop it? Nope, they no not want Iran to have nukes, too. Contrary, if Iran would have nukes, they would try hard to have them, too. I.e. they worry more Iran than Israel.
It's not so simple that West is bad and all others are good.
Yep, the point with "Azerbaijan" keeps me wondering too. Somehow, then, "Reis" Erdogan has his fingers in this too. All the while whipping inland Turks against "EVIL EVIL YEWS" ... Oh the hypocrisies on all sides...
Grandma, may I please go back to being a little boy who cares only about playing in the garden...
But it wouldn't change anything at all, just playing ostrich. This is the only world we have, this is the world we are living. No matter if we like it or not.
Speaking as a westerner, all I want is some actual nice people to cheer for. At this point all I can do is shrug and quietly cheer for the folks in Tehran and elsewhere who sincerely want IRGC gone.
I can’t say that I ever felt threatened by France, USA, India or Israel with possessing nuclear weapons. I don’t recall any random threats in using them.
After seeing the Quds
force talk about the elimination of Israel/America and imagining Iran’s Supreme Leader stroking his beard as he reads from the Quran with the other finger on the nuke button, then I can’t say he nor North Korea’s or Russia’s Supreme Leader would make me feel warm and fuzzy…
The thing is... All those guys, even Irans Leader, are playing to the emotions of their internal populations. Does the Orange Utan with the nuclear football still make you warm and fuzzy? Or India with their strong nationalistic tendencies? Or Israel with their overly nationalistic strong religious settlers?
Crazy leaders and crazy population sections can turn up everywhere, and I have given up hope on full nuclear disarmament... Is the only safe way everyone having their own nuclear umbrella and hoping that no accident occurs?
It is easy to start a war. Difficult to end the war
Whatever you might think you know beforehand, starting a war is like entering a dark room. It is only later that you understand what are you dealing with.
Thanks for this analysis. Since you have declared very strongly not to be a professional I take it you belong to the other school? I didn’t get what that school thought?
You question Israeli statements that everything is going according to plan, but I believe it is. You just have to know the real plan. The plan is that Iran was mere weeks away from developing a Q-bomb, which could destroy all of Israel. It is only because Bibi is the strong prime minister that keeps Israel safe that the Iranians could be stopped in time. Had Bibi not been prime minister, but instead for example been on trial for corruption, the entire nation would be lost. So once again, Bibi is the protector of the nation as only he can be. That is the plan, and so far it is working.
That could be so, but Bibi has been saying the mullahs are weeks away from building a bomb for 30 years. It’s more a new government that Israel wants because even without a bomb there’s still the mullah Twelvers to deal with.
My reference to Iran developing a Q-bomb was probably too obscure. It’s from a 1955 novel and 1959 movie titled “The Mouse that Roared.” A fun book, but probably not well known anymore.
Yes, spot on analysis. the western propaganda is so transparently wrong!
One thing is sure about this conflict: it's incredibly expensive. Billions of USD were spent those two days by simply launching SAMs and ballistic missiles. A modern day War of Attrition.
Oh, you think two days of burning cash in the desert is expensive? Russia’s been playing “World War I cosplay” in Ukraine for four years straight. Thousands of drones, missiles, tanks, and human lives — all wasted in a daily meat grinder just to redraw 20th-century borders. A war so expensive, they had to start raiding washing machines for microchips. But hey, at least they got a few villages no one can pronounce.
Yes, but "Gollum" still sees the jackpot at the end of the rainbow (the rebirth of the USSR under a different name). For this he will risk everything, as long as it doesn't hurt him personally.
"..the effectiveness of IASF air strikes on Iran is also still gauged exclusively by amount of satellite photographs showing destruction of (essentially) ‘big hangars’"
Indeed. One wonders where all the commercial satellite imagery of strikes on Israel is for BDA/verification. Surely the noble corps of Western democratic fact checkers like BBC Verify ought to be publishing this. Or maybe they don't want to. Or maybe they can't. And if so, one wonders why.
Great job Tom! I have a big request. Please tell us the characteristics of the missiles (launch method, firing range, warhead power, guidance accuracy, flight speed), what sides are firing at each other and whether they use munitions with multiple warheads. I am especially interested in the Iranian ground-based hypersonic missiles you mentioned.
Ugh... mate, I'm so exhausted... alone collecting all the related info is going to take 'ages'.
...and still haven't finished my assessment of Ukrainian F-16s, either...
I found this message in the media
https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/iran-atakuvav-izrayil-raketami-emad-qadr-1749954480.html
Considering that between Israel and Iran in a straight line there are "only" 1000 km, these missiles can be launched at Israel from deep inside Iranian territory.
Of course. And, they're 'just one' out of some 7-8 types that can reach Israel.
I recommend the YouTube channel "Deep Dive Defense" for that sort of thing. (Admittedly, it's pro-Iranian.)
yes its actually really good
Yes, so many bloody beginnings with no clear end in vision, end definitey not in sight... until smeone, when cornered, really fires it. The nuke. If they can start multiple wars, why not increase the stake?
As for the first part of this really great overview.. I believe that the death of so many top officials in first wave including some of them "at home" indicated poor preparation of Iran for this, despite all clear and public warnings.
Exactly. Yes, sure: they (Iranians) were 'preparing'. But, not for a 'war': not for an all-out strike on 'them', in person.
Which promptly exposes Netanyahu's story (keenly forwarded by most of the Western media) about 'pre-emptive attack - as a cheap lie.
Yup, makes sense. Especially if someone know the history and “unspoken rules” of this conflict
It's enough to check the story of the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War ('Six Days War').
Until today, Israel (& fans) is claiming it was 'pre-emptive'.
...and although capturing all of the related Egyptian military documentation there was to capture: they've never found any kind of evidence for an Egyptian military plan to invade Israel.
By side that numerous IDF generals subsequently made clear statements in sense 'that with pre-emptive was bollocks', but: if there is no evidence Egyptians have had a military plan to invade Israel, all the talk about 'pre-emptive' is pure PRBS.
News from Rosatom:
During the night from 13 to 14th June, the first more or less serious analyses of the consequences of the Israeli strike on the Iranian complex in Natanz arrived. The strike was directed at the power supply system, knocking out both transformers and backup generators, which most likely led to the shutdown of centrifuges, with dire consequences for many of them. The Natanz transformers/generators themselves are defenseless targets; only air defense could have saved them, but it did not work.
The radiation and chemical contamination reported in the news yesterday evening is local in nature and was caused by the destruction of the PFEP (EWOT) experimental plant (workshop) building. There are no direct signs of a hit on the underground main FEP (EUOT) plant, but there was at least one strike on the entrance to the underground complex with an unclear result. It should be noted that the majority of centrifuges at the main plant are outdated first- and second-generation centrifuges with low productivity, while at the experimental plant, most likely, a ninth-generation experimental centrifuge was destroyed.
Out of curiosity, what is the second school of analysis?
Also, it seems obvious to me now Netanyahu aimed for regime change regardless of history lessons that mass bombing rather strengthens population support than diminishes. From personal attacks on top command to strikes at oil industry all points to attempt to force regime change. Both sides are reduced now to flailing aimlessly at each other with no end in sight other expending all the ammo, and Allach and Jahweh alone know how deep each side ammo stores are (estimates of 2k to 20k IRBMs is basically wild mass guessing)
Another point is US stance, evidently Israel played Trump as "well meaning idiot"... Iranians didnt expect the attack because of ongoing talks with Trump, and now the talks are more dead than Iranian commanders.
Trump himself is trapped between two halves of MAGA base, religious right with armageddon complex and isolationists. Whatever he does, he will infuriate one half, or possibly both if he tries to straddle the line.
IMHO the regime change is just a PR red hering (=bullshit) for the public). If one wants to reach foreign people, one has to use their language. Bibi was speaking in English not Farsi.
Would you trust someone speaking to you in a foreign language?
His real aim is to be the dominant power in the region. His last major obstacle is mainly Iran. The Arabic states are no match for him.
What for one is the rebirth of the USSR under a different name is for the other Erez Israel.
Thank you, so helpful, as always, for understanding what’s happening.
You’re a great analyst.
Please tone down your lectures - you get too riled up to be thoughtful.
“How? There are still operational radar stations in western Iran? How comes - where the IDF said there are none… “
You’re pretending IDF said there is not a single operational radar station in western Iran? Why be silly like that? The world wonders…
People will interpret Israelite statements along those lines. And Israel wants it that way. So asking the question rethorically is moot.
Regarding Tom’s writing style. I think it is inherent to his strengths as an analyst. You will have to live with them if you want to continue with reading the blog.
Hans, same comment to you as James above. Appreciate the pushback.
Best.
I think I understand your POV, but sorry, sarcasm is an essential ingredient in Tom's reporting. The material is so negative and tragic, that (for me at least) the only recourse is to "enjoy" some black humor stimulated by the author's sarcasm to be able to get through the material. The current geo-political world sucks royally as does the political world in the U.S. where I live.
Appreciate the pushback.
I didn’t lead with the compliment just to get to the criticism - the former carries far more weight than the latter. Any criticism I would voice is far outweighed by the appreciation I have for his insights.
I would not be here reading - and beyond that care enough to comment! - if Tom was not great and worthy of continually reading.
But I will reserve the right to quibble with sarcasm that can at times trend in the overbearing direction.
Best.
Great analysis from Tom with lots of detail, historical references and statistics. It was very interesting to read it all. But I still think that Iran is a theocratic church state led by pedophile maniacs that doesn't know why it exists on this planet. All losers are religious. The more religious a country is, the harder it is for people to live there. I think this is an absolute fact that most people will agree with. However, Iran is severely limited in its resources to implement all its ambitious plans. And Iran is so economically dependent on China that they simply cannot go very far, because almost the entire economy of Iran is in the hands of the Chinese. From 2010 to 2020, China supported Iran's economy with $400 billion, stretching these funds over 10 years, and then giving another $400 billion over the next 10 years. Taking and shitting on other countries, killing, raping, robbing, and carrying out terrorist attacks – this is the main task of such regimes. If this country does not appear on the world map, then everyone else will breathe a sigh of relief. Israel with its Zionist regime is also not a gift. Therefore, the evidence of cooperation through the financial elites of the Jews of the "Kremlin towers" with the Kremlin's Chekist bandits and financial swindlers like Trump speaks for itself. The cooperation between the US and the Kremlin on Syria and the exchange of intelligence are also proof of this. All to save "holy Israel" and cause maximum damage to the population and economy of these countries (Syria and Iraq).
I think we can agree on Iranian being a theocratic state (with some built in duality for government). However, that statement doesn’t tell us very much in itself. Theocratic states vary in their outlook and belief and behavior. So I think it is useful to consider what kind of theocratic state we are talking about. Its goals, its ambitions, it limitations. And of course how its population can live there.
Would you like the example of the losers Ukraine and Russia, which, thanks to the marauding elites and the believing stupid population, have sunk to the very bottom in the general race in economic and demographic terms over the past 30+ years? Yes, I criticize my country because I have the right to and I am not satisfied with many things. I am especially dissatisfied with the elites who have the same outlook on life as the Russian elites. Perhaps you could also give Brazil as an example? Brazil has never even achieved regional leadership despite its gigantic capabilities. The reason is the same - insane corruption, marauding elites, and a believing, stupid population. All of Latin America is a vivid example of how to lose everything. The same applies to Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay. This is a vivid example of how promising countries can be turned into shit. They were transformed into the likeness of Africa. Now let's take India, which the Western media calls the "most democratic country". With enormous help from the West, India has converted all this into $9 trillion in GDP for a population of 1.5 billion over the past 150 years. Besides, India is the dirtiest country, with insanely blatant religiosity and horrible habits. All this probably explains the failures of Indians, their incapacity for work, their incompetence compared to the Chinese.
Again, bravo, professor. Some minor correction though. Chile has been doing generally very well, all the rest of Latino guys are not that successful.
Besides the "marauding" elites (I like the expression), overpopulation is also a problem. Families in the third world countries gave too many birthes not thinking about future. They demand from goverment a better life while there are simply...too many kids. That especially hurtful in the not very competitive economies.
P.S. I have a question in return (a provicative one, sorry). Considering psycological and ethnical (90% Ashkenazi) unity of elites in Russia and Ukraine, considering very high similarity of both Slavic nations, millions of mixed marriges, better economical opportunities in Russia, and etc, would not it had been better for Ukraine to peacefully surrender in 2022 and join Russia again? A type of Union similar to the one with Belarus? Retrospecting, considering countless senseless deathes from both sides?
All who were part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union have fallen into general decline, degradation, and poverty. You are degenerates who can give the world nothing useful except hecatombs of corpses and millions of victims. Why should we unite with you to end up at the bottom with you? Modern Russia is far from being the Soviet Union. Russia's influence in the world is reduced to smearing shit on the wall of all other countries, but in reality it is a puppet and puppet of China in its confrontation with the West. Your elites are looters, criminals, and old KGB agents. These idiots are genetically incapable of building a successful country. In fact, the stupid idiot Putin could have raised Russia from its knees a hundred times, but since he is an idiot and a thief, he simply embezzled all the hundreds of billions of dollars from oil and gas revenues with his vertical of power. You have no prospects for the future, and your Russia will fall apart anyway, because it simply could not happen otherwise. All this will be accompanied by agony and bloodshed.
Bravo, professor! With one correction: China did not support Iran with 400 bln.
of money. It was buying oil, most likely, with discount.
I would also dare to advise to elaborate on Turkey. By words, Erdogan is cursing Israel while Turkish oil refineries supply Holy Land with their products.) Out of the recent, despite Erdogan rhetorics, big part of Israeli passengers planes found temporary asylum in....yes..Turkey.)))
Of course, China is not Mother Teresa, giving money away for nothing. They want cheap resources below market prices for their money, and in exchange for debts, they take control of the economy to get their money back. As for Erdogan and Turkey, they are the most ambitious player in this region. The countries of the greater Turan are not against joining because they were already in other alliances and received nothing in return. Although... I think the Chinese will ruin Turkey's plans for all of Central Asia.
I want to ask you as a professor of a professor: how does China manage to have good relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel at the same time? What do you think is the reason and why does it not work in the United States with its democracy?
You are flattering me, just a Phd.)
Good question. I guess, "a soft power" approach works well. And hand on heart, it's economy mainly. Buying oil from Saudis and Iranians no matter how democratic or not the seller, selling very cheap goods to meet the needs of majotity of population in the corresponding countries, and etc. With Israel relations are also positive and neutral. I remember that never serially produced Lavi gave a certain input in J-10.
Bottom line: China is always giving good deals and never teach "how to live". Of course, USA are not happy about such advanced competitor. But even here, stupid political games prevail otherwise both countries benefit from each other. Last 3 decades of mutual trade gave China the biggest market in the world and many vital technologies, while US were successfully downing inflation with the cheap Chinese goods letting impoverishing US population (at least, substantial part of it) to make ends meet.
Thanks gents and professors for the rational and always entertaining exchange of views. I have a question, wouldn’t a campaign of soft power have been more helpful for Russian goals for Ukraine? It would take longer, but why not adapt the Chinese playbook? Which, I would advise Xi to follow with Taiwan and the S China Sea as well. It’s too late now for Ukraine, but with the States shit canning soft power in general, the time was right to exert influence.
A very good note. Indeed, "soft power" was the best scenario for Russia. However, the problem is the degenerating of elites that rule Russia. With corruption as a mainstay ideology one can't get very far. So, while USAid (that gave USD 5 bln for "democratization" of Ukraine) and similar US/EU agencies (no say nothing about private Deep State activists like Soros) were trying their best to separate UA far from RU, Russian corresponding ministries and agencies were simply stealing the money. Private Russian industrialists and bankers were doing good as a big part of UA economy was directly or indirectly owned by RU companies for mutual benefit of both countries. But everything related to state-owned or state-governed things from Russian side was a pure disaster. Starting with terrible corruption with regards to RU natural gas coming to Ukraine and ending with the support of criminal crook Yanukovich. Out of several scenarios RU authorities were always taking the worst.
A missed opportunity. Making Ukraine into something like an economic ally would have worked for Moscow, instead they have this mess. There was no “fast track” to the EU, let alone NATO, still isn’t.
The muscovites never used "soft power". They always used coercion, lies and fraud through the whole history and they simply know nothing else. This is the only language they speak and understand.
«A very good note. Indeed, "soft power" was the best scenario for Russia. However, the problem is the degenerating of elites that rule Russia. With corruption as a mainstay ideology one can't get very far. So, while USAid (that gave USD 5 bln for "democratization" of Ukraine) and similar US/EU agencies (no say nothing about private Deep State activists like Soros) were trying their best to separate UA far from RU, Russian corresponding ministries and agencies were simply stealing the money» – First, Russia has always been a country of slaves, thieves, orphans and widows. Some once had some illusions that Russia was capable of becoming a democracy. In fact, Russia is not capable of this for the simple reason that its population is quite savage, barbaric and has little to give in the civilizational sense. It was always only the conquered new territories that gave Russia any progress by giving it inventors or scientists. And that was the basis of its existence. And so it is a society of consumers and is incapable of even any messages to democracy and freedom. And all these protests in Moscow are purely operating and regulating processes that have no effect on anything in Russia. Russian society is very underdeveloped and primitive to the point of impossibility. Russian society is a society of slaves. Second, about George Soros, the deep state and its influence in the world: Soros is a mid-level figure on the world stage who is used as a scarecrow to intimidate the not-so-intelligent masses of the population. For example, if you look at Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Zuckerberg, or Bernard Arnault, Soros looks like a bum compared to them in terms of wealth and influence in the world. As for the deep state, everything is also very simple and there are no conspiracy theories: there are elites and there are everyone else. What does this mean? It means that the state apparatus of all these presidents, senators, and finance ministers is just a corrupt gasket between the moneybags and everyone else. The state is not one single corporation, as most people imagine it, but a collection of different corporations whose resources are then distributed by oligarchs at their own discretion. That's the whole conspiracy theory and the universal secret that is not a secret. The same is happening in China, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and other countries from East to West.The elite plunder, while everyone else sits quietly in the stall and obeys. Some rule by cunning, others by brute force.
Yes, Iran is... actually, no theocracy, but kleptocracy run by religious extremist nutjobs.
How good that there are no religious extremist nutjobs in power of Israel's and US idiocracies...
Summary: Iranian nukes are bad and Israeli nukes are good. Western hypocrisy is overwhelming.
Some Israeli UAVs in Iran have been launched from Azerbidjan. Azerbidjan would not do it without agreement from Turkey. And what about reaction of Saudis and other Arab countries? Do they try to force Trump to stop it? Nope, they no not want Iran to have nukes, too. Contrary, if Iran would have nukes, they would try hard to have them, too. I.e. they worry more Iran than Israel.
It's not so simple that West is bad and all others are good.
Yep, the point with "Azerbaijan" keeps me wondering too. Somehow, then, "Reis" Erdogan has his fingers in this too. All the while whipping inland Turks against "EVIL EVIL YEWS" ... Oh the hypocrisies on all sides...
Grandma, may I please go back to being a little boy who cares only about playing in the garden...
Erdogan is very "flexible" in this regard, he plays with Israel if it's in his interests.
But it wouldn't change anything at all, just playing ostrich. This is the only world we have, this is the world we are living. No matter if we like it or not.
Speaking as a westerner, all I want is some actual nice people to cheer for. At this point all I can do is shrug and quietly cheer for the folks in Tehran and elsewhere who sincerely want IRGC gone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pahlavi_Iran
I can’t say that I ever felt threatened by France, USA, India or Israel with possessing nuclear weapons. I don’t recall any random threats in using them.
After seeing the Quds
force talk about the elimination of Israel/America and imagining Iran’s Supreme Leader stroking his beard as he reads from the Quran with the other finger on the nuke button, then I can’t say he nor North Korea’s or Russia’s Supreme Leader would make me feel warm and fuzzy…
The thing is... All those guys, even Irans Leader, are playing to the emotions of their internal populations. Does the Orange Utan with the nuclear football still make you warm and fuzzy? Or India with their strong nationalistic tendencies? Or Israel with their overly nationalistic strong religious settlers?
Crazy leaders and crazy population sections can turn up everywhere, and I have given up hope on full nuclear disarmament... Is the only safe way everyone having their own nuclear umbrella and hoping that no accident occurs?
Appreciate sincerely ! Great effort! Almost no one is capable of real analysis, today. Thank you.
Clausewitz for Dummies
It is easy to start a war. Difficult to end the war
Whatever you might think you know beforehand, starting a war is like entering a dark room. It is only later that you understand what are you dealing with.
Thanks for this analysis. Since you have declared very strongly not to be a professional I take it you belong to the other school? I didn’t get what that school thought?
But what if Iran caves and makes a deal stopping uranium enrichment now? Does it justify Israel actions?
today daytime Iran missile attack failed already, are they running out?
Iran has increased its enrichment precisely as a method of coercing Dump into a new JPCOA.
That 'misfired' because of Netanyahu.
You question Israeli statements that everything is going according to plan, but I believe it is. You just have to know the real plan. The plan is that Iran was mere weeks away from developing a Q-bomb, which could destroy all of Israel. It is only because Bibi is the strong prime minister that keeps Israel safe that the Iranians could be stopped in time. Had Bibi not been prime minister, but instead for example been on trial for corruption, the entire nation would be lost. So once again, Bibi is the protector of the nation as only he can be. That is the plan, and so far it is working.
That could be so, but Bibi has been saying the mullahs are weeks away from building a bomb for 30 years. It’s more a new government that Israel wants because even without a bomb there’s still the mullah Twelvers to deal with.
Certainly. I’m just trying to stay true to the style of Sarcastosaurus.
My reference to Iran developing a Q-bomb was probably too obscure. It’s from a 1955 novel and 1959 movie titled “The Mouse that Roared.” A fun book, but probably not well known anymore.
Wasn't there even a movie (comedy) inspired by it?
Yes, 1959 movie with Peter Sellers playing three characters.
Ah yes, I remember seeing the german version as a kid.