Quo vadis?
Day 2 of the June 2025 Iran-Israel War
Hello everybody!
Up front: get yourself some coffee, tea, or coke and popcorn: this one is going to be ‘unusually long’..
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Professional Military Experts of the West
It is… well, yes: I’m finding no better word but ‘ridiculous’, to read ‘Western’ reports about what’s going on between Iran and Israel. Summarised, one can say there are two ‘schools of thoughts’.
…where one is omni-present and the other next to non-existent (at least ‘ignored’).
That omni-present one is insistently pursued by professional experts in ‘the West’: the same people that are simply taking Ukrainian claims about ‘disabling the Russian air power’ (and that right at the start of Putin’s invasion, back in February 2022) at face value, while obviously not understanding even how that Russian air power ‘works’. On basis of what ideology and requirements was it developed, and why, and how is it deployed in combat. Correspondingly, they say, because the Russian Air-Space Force is not operating in Ukraine the way they think the ‘Western’ air forces would operate, this is a major Ukrainian success.
Without understanding how the (two) Iranian IADS’ work, without a trace of clue about Iran’s Mosaic Doctrine, either, the same people are taking Israeli claims about ‘achievements’ in Iran at face value, too: counting how many of top military and political figures have been killed, while ignoring how quickly and by whom have they been replaced. And they excel in ignoring the very fundaments of the Twelver Shi’a ideology, regardless how much is this the pillar of IRGC’s doctrine (where one should especially pay attention about the fact that the same ideology is emphasising that the more they try, the harder they try, the more losses they suffer, the more evidence are they providing to Allah that they are worth, that they have deserved being granted success).
Then the professional experts count how much of what installations Israel claims it has hit and, based on that, simply declare a ‘victory’. Because: destruction of buildings = automatic victory. They are never conducting any further research of the topic; doing no cross-checking. Instead, Israeli statements, releases and videos are treated like dogmas – even when it’s obvious (like in the case of IDF-released videos), one might want to take a second look. Nope. These are quoted word-for-word, and the professional experts are declaring them for matters of fact. And that’s it.
This is why and how ‘it happens’ we then get to read about ‘Israel expanding campaign’ – instead of initiating a new aggression; about ‘pre-emptive attack’, when there is no trace of evidence that Iran was preparing an attack on Israel (on the contrary: there’s lots of evidence it wasn’t… indeed: even when the same professional experts are talking about ‘Iran obtaining strategic immunity’); and then they ignore the fact that – and for the first time since 1973 – Israel initiated an aggression against other nation-state; a country with (at least) ‘reasonably’ well-developed armed forces (Islamic Republic of Iran), instead with an armed uprising/insurgency (like Hamas), or a para-state based on religiously-motivated popular movement (like Hezbollah).
…where, ‘of course’, it’s ‘impossible’ that there is an insurgency/popular uprising of Palestinians, just like it’s ‘impossible’ that Hezbollah grew out of a similar insurgency/popular uprising between the Shi’a of Lebanon: both are ‘terrorists’. That’s making things so much simpler, can’t say… So much so, nobody remembers that George Washington was a ‘terrorist’ for the British; that Nelson Mandela was a ‘terrorist’ for the South African government… or, shall I go into the newest example: that Ahmed ash-Shraa/al-Jowlani was a ‘terrorist’ for ‘everybody from Anchorage to Vladivostok’, just a few months ago…
Nah: that’s too complex and thus forget it.
Instead, within such circles, it’s a sort of ‘blasphemy’ to think any other way. After all, and just for the start, everybody knows the IRGC is a gang of (quote) incompetent camel riders. And Jihadists, seeking to kill civilians in order to earn themselves 72 virgins in paradise… (as if this would be anyhow related to the Twelver Shi’a… ). It is also a blasphemy – and, probably, ‘anti-Semitism’ – to pay attention about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday, less than 48 hours after starting (or ‘renewing’) this brawl, announcing entirely different aims of the Operation Rising Lion: he didn’t mention the Iranian nuclear program with a word, but explained now it’s about destroying Iranian ballistic missiles’…and then, why pay attention about the Israel Air & Space Force (IASF) initiating strikes on Iran’s oil industry?
Nevermind…
The professional experts in question simply know better: that’s why then the effectiveness of IASF air strikes on Iran is also still gauged exclusively by amount of satellite photographs showing destruction of (essentially) ‘big hangars’, ‘workshops’ etc. in Natanz and similar places. That’s why nobody is coming to the idea that Iranians might have emptied these already weeks-, at least days ago (in exactly the same fashion like the Serbs emptied their before being bombed by NATO, back in 1999). Or that many of Iranian transporter-erector-launches (TELs) for ballistic missiles the Israelis brag to have hit, and show as hit on their videos, are little else but decoys.
…and, when it’s about efficiency of Iranian missile strikes on Israel: oh, but that’s so simple! If either only circumstantial evidence for these is available or nobody is releasing any photos or videos (for example: because of Israel’s strict military censorship), then not only that nothing was hit, destroyed or damaged, but: nothing happened at all. Correspondingly, ‘nobody can recall’ videos showing 30+ Iranian warheads slamming into Tel Nov Air Base, the last October. In addition to an even bigger number doing so at Nevatim Air Base. Therefore, nothing happened at Tel Nov, Nevatim and Ovda during the night from 13 to 14 June either. And even less so the last night. And then the conclusion is so simple: the Iranians – and especially the IRGC – are incompetents, targeting exclusively civilians, and still unprecise.
How convenient: one is promptly feeling so much better, can’t say.
…and then they are all either very quiet about what Iran did to Haifa and Eilat, the last night, or repeating ridiculous Israeli claims that 95% of incoming Iranian missiles have been shot down – even in the face of clear evidence of something else happening. Kind of: in the case of things not developing the way one expects, then re-boot and repeat the exercise until it ‘works’. And then repeat that exercise until it ‘becomes truth’.
Probably because thinking soberly, collecting evidence so to obtain an insight into facts, and analysing, is making one a ‘jihadist supporter’. Indeed: that’s blanc anti-Semitism…
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The (Israeli) Operation is developing according to Plan…
Late during the morning of 14 June, the IDF spokesman Brigadier-General Effie Defrin said 'over 70' IASF aircraft were involved in overnight air strikes on targets in the Tehran area, to 'achieve freedom of action over the Iranian capital'. They hit 40 targets, including 'air defence systems and related assets'. The mission lasted 2,5 hours, and that the aircraft 'flew freely over Tehran'. Makes one wonder: what were they doing when the IRGCASF was firing its 200 intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Israel, then?
Well, Defrin released several additional videos showing hits on IRGCASF's TELs... where at least four of videos in question were actually showing hits on two TELs just taken from two different aircraft... and one a clear miss (although this likely damaged both the TEL and the missile). Plus one hit on a TEL _after_ this has fired the missile...
Of course, Defrin added that the 'operation is developing according to plan'. Um… please remind me: where else have I heard this, lately…?
Asking because that itch in my small toe is telling me that when officials start explaining that everything is developing according to plan, then things are not going according the plan the least.
Lets analyse this a bit…
To emphasise IASF’s success, Defrin released a number of new videos, showing hits on Iranian TELs. Where at least four of the videos in question were actually showing hits on two TELs, but as taken from two different aircraft. Another showed a clear miss (although this likely damaged both the TEL and the missile on it), and one hit a TEL only after this has fired a missile… Foremost: with one exception, all the videos showing genuine hits were showing no ‘secondaries’: when a ballistic missile – essentially: a giant fuel tank or a big solid-fuel rocket motor – is hit, that’s blowing up, ‘like crazy’. But, in most of videos released yesterday, there’s nothing to be seen of that.
Sorry, but a lot of that is indicating strikes on decoys.
...while, in the case of another video, they're clearly misidentifying TELs for SAMs, as 'TELs for IRBMs hidden in Tehran's neighbourhoods'...
Moreover, this entire press conference sounded to me like, 'we're hitting them, we're hitting them, please be patient’. Apparenttly, one counts with the public having the memory of the fish, and thus not ‘connecting the dots’. Like asking: how could the IRGCASF have fired five waves of IRBMs during the night from 13 to 14 if the Israelis were as successful as they claim they are?
Because…well, actually, it’s simple: Iran could have 100,000 IRBMs, but can’t launch even one if it has no TELs. And the number of TELs available to the IRGCASF is far lower than the number of ballistic missiles.
…sigh…
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What’s the Goal of this (‘successful’) Operation?
That official Israel is lying – is nothing new. If cross-checking Israeli official releases in serious fashion, one can quickly conclude this is the standard practice for the last 78 years. Just: why would an Israeli official ‘need to lie’ in the case of this, ‘highly successful’ operation against Iran? After all, the opening blow was definitely successful, and the Israelis claim their strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility were very successful, too.
To me, this appeared as an attempt to lessen the panic at home – but also to distract from a different conclusion: yes, Israel has knocked out much of Iranian air defences in western Iran. No doubt about that. But, it didn’t destroy all of them. Foremost, it didn’t manage to destroy nuclear facilities it would like to destroy.
This even more so because subsequently the social media began brimming with different reports about the assessed number of Iranian IRBMs (generally ranging from ‘2,000’ to ’20,000’), and Netanyahu explained that the reason for this war was that Iran would have 8,000 ballistic missiles over the next two years.
Professional experts in the West were quick in finding an explanation. The Israeli leadership decided that waiting for two years longer would enable Iran to built an arsenal that would grant Tehran something like strategic immunity…
Beg your pardon? What now? Was this about Iran’s nuclear program, as originally declared by Netanyahu, or about Iran’s ballistic missiles?
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Nukes? …or IRBMs?
Aw, no: don’t worry. It was neither! Because the operation is developing according to plan – read: Israel first targeted Iran’s nuclear program, but then realised it can’t disable the same (nor drag the USA into doing this for Israel) - Netanyahu then did something similar to what Hitler did when ordering Göring’s Luftwaffe to stop bombing RAF air bases (which almost broke the back of the Royal Air Fore), during the Battle of Britain, back in 1940, and bomb London instead: Netanyahu ordered the IASF to start striking the Iran’s oil industry.
One of first targeted and hit was the Section 14 of the Jam gas refinery in Kangan (Bushehr province). That’s a part of infrastructure of the South Pars gas field (biggest gas field, world-wide, jointly exploited by Iran and Qatar). A fire broke out, but the local officials declared it for ‘quickly contained’. The next to get hit was the Fajr Jam natural gas refinery in the Bushehr area.
…sigh…
Meanwhile, IASF hit the IRIADF radar site at Dalahu, in western Iran.
How? There are still operational radar stations in western Iran? How comes - where the IDF said there are none…
Then the Israelis bombed the Bonyan engine factory and the Zagros Automotive Company in the industrial zone of Tabriz. As next, the IASF first denied any attacks on the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, then claimed to have attacked both it and the one in Parchin. And that atop of claiming the destruction of all the uranium enriched to 20-60% in Esfahan (that’s a facility manufacturing the so-called ‘yellow cake’: it was constructed above the ground, only poorly hardened and thus vulnerable to air strikes).
Late in the afternoon, Israel also flew an air strike on a ‘high-value target in Tehran’. Almost immediately after, reports surfaced about the death of Rear Admiral (ret.) Ali Shamkhani, political advisor to the (Iran’s/Shi’a) Supreme Leader Khamenei (and former Minister of Defence of Iran, and somebody who – between others - received the highest decoration of Saudi Arabia for developing relations between that country and the IRI). However, it turned out that he succumbed to injuries sustained on 13 June.
About two hours later, one of Israeli officials announced in the social media that the Supreme Leader is ‘not off limits’. Curiously, this happened around the same time the IASF and/or Mossad were running their (at least) second attempt to kill Khamenei through air- and UAV-strikes on one of his residences in Tehran.
During the evening, IASF air strikes and UAV activity were reported from the Tabriz area (Maragheh), Karaj (IRGASF helicopter base), Ahwaz, Bandar-e Abbas (Hormuz Strait), Esfahan and Tehran (where they’ve bombed the building of the Ministry of Defence, massacring around 20 civilians in the process, and the Armed Forces Logistics Centre in Nobodyad). Moreover, the IASF deployed air launched ballistic missiles to target the largest Iranian oil refinery: Shahre Rei, south of Tehran, and the Malek Ashtar Technical University. One Israeli UAVs and/or incoming missiles or loitering guided munitions were claimed (most also visually confirmed) as shot down over Mashhad (Khuzestan), another over Zanjan, while 10 were claimed as shot down over the Tehran area. Moreover, in Urumiyeh, the Israelis targeted an ambulance rushing to the Camp al-Mahdi, and killed two paramedics. Guess, two more days, and the IASF is going to start striking hospitals, too… (after announcing there are ‘military bunkers underneath’ the same, of course).
Moreover, wreckage of this Israeli UAV was found outside Osku (that’s near Tabriz):
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Nah, it’s the Oil Industry, Stupid
In the meantime – and while Netanyahu & Co KG GesmbH AG were busy announcing that ‘Iranian officials are fleeing the country’ – the IDF has evacuated the Base 8200 and the Mossad HQ, in northern Tel Aviv. Must be because of high confidence in Israel’s and US capability to defend from the next Iranian counter-strike…
Around 22.30hrs local time, the IRGCASF then fired its first of several volleys of IRBMs at Israel - and did the same as Netanyahu: instead of continuing to strike Israel’s military facilities, it switched focus on ‘dual-purpose’ facilities - i.e. the Israel’s oil industry.
The principal target was the refinery of Haifa: this was hit by a combination of ‘conventional’ IRBMs and at least two hypersonic vehicles – which definitely overwhelmed the combined Israeli-US capability to defend (it’s not like they didn’t try: dozens of SAMs were fired in reaction). As a consequence, ‘dozens’ of strikes were clearly visible on numerous related videos. A big fire was still raging as of this morning.
In Bat Yam, southern Tel Aviv, an Iranian IRBM hit a high-rise building, causing about a third of it to collapse: as of this morning, three civilians were announced killed, while about 30 were still missing.
…while in Rehovot, IRGCASF’s IRBMs punched through the Israeli/US air defences to demolish the Weizman Institute of Science:
Overall, according to official IDF releases, the IRGCASF fired a total of about 80 IRBMs.
One wave hit northern Israel (Haifa), and, between others, killed four in Tamra.
The second hit central Israel, killing at least six and wounding 240. Seven are still missing in Bat Yam.
At least 12-15 hits were observed in total.
Aiming to recover the control over the public narrative, Israelis then attacked the Shahran oil depot outside Tehran, the HQ of the Iranian Atomic Organisation in Tehran, and launched an air strike aiming to assassinate the leadership of the – heavily de-centralised – Houthi movement in Yemen….
…sigh… yup: can’t but wonder, ‘and what now, Israel?’ And which way next, Iran…?
Clausewitz for Dummies
It is easy to start a war. Difficult to end the war
Whatever you might think you know beforehand, starting a war is like entering a dark room. It is only later that you understand what are you dealing with.
Yes, so many bloody beginnings with no clear end in vision, end definitey not in sight... until smeone, when cornered, really fires it. The nuke. If they can start multiple wars, why not increase the stake?
As for the first part of this really great overview.. I believe that the death of so many top officials in first wave including some of them "at home" indicated poor preparation of Iran for this, despite all clear and public warnings.