Thanks for the update. I guess (not concluding) that we will see more such. Personally I am surprised we haven’t seen more such episodes and sooner. But the «playground» element is obvious. Also that all those forces «eliminated» by Israel are still there.
In general, matter of fact is that there are enough powerful characters who understand the importance of 'Syria' - and that far better than what the 'general public in the West' does (not to talk about the public elsewhere around the World does).
Sure, Syria is devastated and completely ruined for decades in advance. However, and exactly like for the last 3,500-5,000 years (at least), the country is simply crucial for the future of the entire Middle East (and beyond).
Of course Syria is important. A stable Syria would be a very good thing it itself, as well an example and a beacon. But very many players have other interests.
Can only assess that, the way I know commanders of the 'SDF' - i.e. the PKK (and their pals in Iraq, too) - now that they're supported not only by the USA and Russia, but by the IRGC, too - there is simply no way they would disarm and give up.
Mind: the SDF is PKK. Period.
Call it an offshoot, proxy, surrogate, whatever... it's the same people.
The PKK/SDF was originally (back in the period 1985-2011) supported by the Soviets and Assadists.
Then, in 2011-2012, they've massacred or forced into exile the leaders of 13-14 Kurdish political parties/movements in north-eastern Syria, and took over the areas these have controlled - and that in cooperation with the Assadists.
Then, in 2012-2013, they've quasi-cooperated with Syrian insurgents as these were crushing the Assadist regime in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2013-2014, they've cooperated (rather openly, even if claiming something else) with the Daesh ('IS') as this was spreading and then subverting and destroying the insurgency in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2015, they've sided with the USA, quasi to 'combat the Daesh'. Over the next three years, they've 'fought' the Daesh primarily in form of waiting for the US (and allied) air strikes to pulverise everything in their way. Meanwhile, in the rear, in 'liberated' territories, they were ethnically cleansing the Sunni Arabs or hijacking and forcefully recruiting their kids.
Then, in 2015-2018, as the IRGC and the Russians 'recovered' Aleppo, they fell into the back of the Syrian insurgents and combated them as well... and over the following years enjoyed both the US and Russian protection.
In 2022, they were siding with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and announcing the 'downfall of the imperialist puppet regime in Kyiv'...
Mere three months ago, they were crying about the downfall of the Assad regime, facilitating re-deployments ('evacuation') of Russian troops on the territory under their control, and announcing an 'IS takeover in Damascus'.
A month later, when facing mass popular protests against them, they began publicly showing flags of (independent/sovereign) Syria.
... and now they're collaborating with the IRGC to support an Assadist 'uprising'...
Terrorists, turncoats, and experts in surviving whatever comes their way. And that all the time.
Thanks for the heads-up, Tom, one question: are there any Russian armed forces in Hmeimim AB, having operational combat planes yet? What has their role been in this uprising?
Yes, there are still over 1,000 Russians there, primarily military personnel, but also their dependants.
Re. presence of combat aircraft: haven't seen any fresh photos or videos since around early January, but I do assess this as 'near certainly yes'. Probably: 4 each of Su-30s and Su-34s.
However, air patrols are secondary for Russian there nowadays. They are busy with providing asylum for the young Alawi and Christian terrorists and cutthroats:
Of course, major reason for the suffering and ethnic cleansing of minorities (Alawi, Christians, Shia, Druzes) by relentless islamists is definetely Assad himself. He, after the victory against jihadist scum, failed to build a new society. The country plunged into the further corruption and hopelessness. Also, his vital (though secondary) fault is that he did not finish off Idlib jihadist abscess.
Next to be blamed are Alawi elite, Russia and Iran who betrayed Assad regime and let jihadist trash from Idlib get the country that easily. I hope that noone have illusion that a bunch of Idlib jihadists could take over the country that fast by their own power. One sunny day we will get to know who and what for Assad regime was bartered. My IMHO the trigger was "neutralisation" of previous Iranian president in a sudden but very timely aircrash.
BTW, I do believe that CIA asset Julani are indeed unhappy about recent atrocities, but he has no real power that required. To make things worse, he issued a letter with a demand to jihadists to stop taping their crimes to avoid international reaction.
So, my point is that medieval jihadists barbarians that are launching local holocaust against minorities are just an instrument of weird chain of affairs. But the one to blame is indeed Assad who spoiled the game with all the trumps in his hands.
P.S. Interesting that only US administration had the guts to condemn enthnic and religious cleansing:
So, it wasn't Assad who released all the possible future Nusra/HTS-leaders (including al-Jowlani), plus a bunch of future 'emirs' of the Daesh from his prisons - while detaining and mass-murdering over 120,000 perfectly peaceful, secular protesters, back in 2012?
And you have friends who can tell you about their times from being locked inside Sednaya together with such characters? And that's why you know that al-Jowlani is a CIA-asset...?
I'll stop here. And I recommend you to stop BS-itting about Syria too. Immediately.
Thanks Tom, it's important to keep good information flowing on this situation which hardly reaches the news any more and when it does it is from headline grabbers who don't understand anything.
If it's the massacres instigated by Assadists on both Alawi and Sunni population, plus the security services in the course of their 'uprising' (latest RUMINT is indicating over 1,000 people killed), then it's obvious: the IRGC is seeking for ways to de-stabilise Syria.
If it's the massacres instigated by the two ex-SNA units:
a) Many of Hamsa and Shah Sultan Murad are Turcomen: people of Turkish origin, living in what is nowadays northern Syria since around the 12th Century, and ethnically cleansed (by the same Alawites now staging this 'uprising') out of northern Latakia, back in 2013-2017. They have lots of 'open accounts' (see: revenge).
b) That said, alone considering the 'nature' of the two organisations in question, considering their earlier behaviour, I doubt it cost more than €10,000 to bribe them into running amok.
The Syrians want back-rent from Russia when Russia couldn't even afford yesterday's rent? Glad to hear there's no place so war-torn lawyers can't set up shop ;)
Excellent summation of what’s coming down in Syria. With all differing groups trying to upsurge Syrian stability, your dissection of the chaos is most welcome.
Thank you Tom. Question: Are the Russians leaving Syria or not? The media wrote about the evacuation of personnel by plane to Russia, and about the evacuation of equipment to Libya, and about ships sent from the Baltic Sea for evacuation. But the fact that the most violent clashes occurred near Russian bases indicates that the Russians do not intend to leave.
Nominally, the Russians were supposed to withdraw by the end of February. But, yes, they're still around, and the government in Damascus is too busy with other affairs but to kick them out. That said, Russians are regularly sending ships to withdraw additional vehicles and equipment, though not at a rate from back in December and January.
Uygurs are organised into the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP). The TIP was a part of the HTS over the last 7-8 years, perhaps slightly longer. They're Islamist and termed as jihadists and thus on the list of terrorist organisations. They fought against Assad, in north-western Idlib and were thus on the 'winning' side when the Assad regime was toppled.
They're still around but, nominally, now as a part of the re-established Syrian Army.
I miss a sense of that. If pro-Assad insurgents were able to smuggle arms into Syria, they would be able to get themself out of Syria. Apparently, they had not support even from all Alawites, so this insurgency was predetermined to fail. Something like "if I have to die I take X people with me"? Or they were so stupid to believe they could succeed? Or they were fooled by IRGC or someone else?
So, because you've missed the point where the PKK/SDF left an entire truck convoy of the IRGC with arms and ammo pass via the territory of Syria it controls.... this is all impossible?
Really... I'm getting so tired of this trollia acuta...
No, I've not missed that, I've written if Asadists are able to smuggle arms in, they can get out persons, too. That convoy had to go through HTS or SNA controlled territory, too.
But main point is, even whole Assad army with huge amount of arms and ammo was defeated, they failed even to defend Lakatia because even local Alawites were agaisnt them. Why these guys think their insurgency may succeed? Are they stupid or were they fooled by someone? E.g. if that was orchestrated by IRGC, why Hezbollah was not involved? IMO if Hezbollah refused to join, it should be clear to IRGC they cannot succeed or IRGC has some vary bad intel.
There are no 'frontlines' any more: not every square inch along the lines between the PKK/SDF and the government forces is occuppied and subjected to permanent observation.
And re. Assadists: again, 'Assad or We burn the Country'. Read: blanc fanaticism and indoctrination with own superiority.
Thanks for the update. I guess (not concluding) that we will see more such. Personally I am surprised we haven’t seen more such episodes and sooner. But the «playground» element is obvious. Also that all those forces «eliminated» by Israel are still there.
In general, matter of fact is that there are enough powerful characters who understand the importance of 'Syria' - and that far better than what the 'general public in the West' does (not to talk about the public elsewhere around the World does).
Sure, Syria is devastated and completely ruined for decades in advance. However, and exactly like for the last 3,500-5,000 years (at least), the country is simply crucial for the future of the entire Middle East (and beyond).
Of course Syria is important. A stable Syria would be a very good thing it itself, as well an example and a beacon. But very many players have other interests.
Yes.
'But'.... if
- the IRGC's support for the Assadists can drive a new wave of refugees to Türkiye and the EU,
- it destabilises the new government and weakens its security services so the Daesh can rise again, and
- if it encourages the PKK/SDF to ignore Öcalan's order to put down arms...
Then the 'exclusive club' is 'winning'...
And, no doubt: it's easy to arrange all of this. Especially in such a ruined, piss-poor country like Syria now is.
Do you think the SDF would disband if the PKK laid down their arms?
I cannot and I'm not going to 'predict future'.
Can only assess that, the way I know commanders of the 'SDF' - i.e. the PKK (and their pals in Iraq, too) - now that they're supported not only by the USA and Russia, but by the IRGC, too - there is simply no way they would disarm and give up.
Mind: the SDF is PKK. Period.
Call it an offshoot, proxy, surrogate, whatever... it's the same people.
The PKK/SDF was originally (back in the period 1985-2011) supported by the Soviets and Assadists.
Then, in 2011-2012, they've massacred or forced into exile the leaders of 13-14 Kurdish political parties/movements in north-eastern Syria, and took over the areas these have controlled - and that in cooperation with the Assadists.
Then, in 2012-2013, they've quasi-cooperated with Syrian insurgents as these were crushing the Assadist regime in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2013-2014, they've cooperated (rather openly, even if claiming something else) with the Daesh ('IS') as this was spreading and then subverting and destroying the insurgency in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2015, they've sided with the USA, quasi to 'combat the Daesh'. Over the next three years, they've 'fought' the Daesh primarily in form of waiting for the US (and allied) air strikes to pulverise everything in their way. Meanwhile, in the rear, in 'liberated' territories, they were ethnically cleansing the Sunni Arabs or hijacking and forcefully recruiting their kids.
Then, in 2015-2018, as the IRGC and the Russians 'recovered' Aleppo, they fell into the back of the Syrian insurgents and combated them as well... and over the following years enjoyed both the US and Russian protection.
In 2022, they were siding with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and announcing the 'downfall of the imperialist puppet regime in Kyiv'...
Mere three months ago, they were crying about the downfall of the Assad regime, facilitating re-deployments ('evacuation') of Russian troops on the territory under their control, and announcing an 'IS takeover in Damascus'.
A month later, when facing mass popular protests against them, they began publicly showing flags of (independent/sovereign) Syria.
... and now they're collaborating with the IRGC to support an Assadist 'uprising'...
Terrorists, turncoats, and experts in surviving whatever comes their way. And that all the time.
Thank you. I am sorry, I am not expecting you to predict the future, am rather interested in your assessments. Hence the questions.
I believe it would have been difficult to predict that Øcalan would urge the PKK to disband this year.
Terrorists, turncoats is to be expected. Surviving what’s being thrown at them is worrisome.
Tom Cooper you forget the pkk is lover of chavismus/castrismus too...
One cuestion, the "al hamsa" os murderer allawites? The allawites, not are in some mayority people of al asad.
And is disgusting, at nauseam, see some country in west make a parnership with iran...yea, i now, is not new but!
Thanks for the heads-up, Tom, one question: are there any Russian armed forces in Hmeimim AB, having operational combat planes yet? What has their role been in this uprising?
Yes, there are still over 1,000 Russians there, primarily military personnel, but also their dependants.
Re. presence of combat aircraft: haven't seen any fresh photos or videos since around early January, but I do assess this as 'near certainly yes'. Probably: 4 each of Su-30s and Su-34s.
Could be some SuperFlankers as well:
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2025/03/04/russian-su-35s-daring-drone-flyby-leaves-france-hard-fuming/
However, air patrols are secondary for Russian there nowadays. They are busy with providing asylum for the young Alawi and Christian terrorists and cutthroats:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/27870?single
And this young terrorist failed to run away and being treated by goverment forces:
https://t.me/faceofwar/46607
The war criminal Assad is not enjoying asylum in Russia?
It's a long story...however, if in brief..
Of course, major reason for the suffering and ethnic cleansing of minorities (Alawi, Christians, Shia, Druzes) by relentless islamists is definetely Assad himself. He, after the victory against jihadist scum, failed to build a new society. The country plunged into the further corruption and hopelessness. Also, his vital (though secondary) fault is that he did not finish off Idlib jihadist abscess.
Next to be blamed are Alawi elite, Russia and Iran who betrayed Assad regime and let jihadist trash from Idlib get the country that easily. I hope that noone have illusion that a bunch of Idlib jihadists could take over the country that fast by their own power. One sunny day we will get to know who and what for Assad regime was bartered. My IMHO the trigger was "neutralisation" of previous Iranian president in a sudden but very timely aircrash.
BTW, I do believe that CIA asset Julani are indeed unhappy about recent atrocities, but he has no real power that required. To make things worse, he issued a letter with a demand to jihadists to stop taping their crimes to avoid international reaction.
So, my point is that medieval jihadists barbarians that are launching local holocaust against minorities are just an instrument of weird chain of affairs. But the one to blame is indeed Assad who spoiled the game with all the trumps in his hands.
P.S. Interesting that only US administration had the guts to condemn enthnic and religious cleansing:
https://www.voanews.com/a/rubio-says-syria-must-hold-accountable-perpetrators-of-massacres-/8004267.html
while Russians officials are silent....
So, it wasn't Assad who released all the possible future Nusra/HTS-leaders (including al-Jowlani), plus a bunch of future 'emirs' of the Daesh from his prisons - while detaining and mass-murdering over 120,000 perfectly peaceful, secular protesters, back in 2012?
And you have friends who can tell you about their times from being locked inside Sednaya together with such characters? And that's why you know that al-Jowlani is a CIA-asset...?
I'll stop here. And I recommend you to stop BS-itting about Syria too. Immediately.
Thanks Tom, it's important to keep good information flowing on this situation which hardly reaches the news any more and when it does it is from headline grabbers who don't understand anything.
Thanks Tom
Thanks Tom!
Re: SDF letting through Iranian convoy. Assuming they did so with American blessings, would the Americans be blessing other parties in this?
Where would the Iranians be heading?
Also, are IRGC-QF directly involved in newly formed IRF or SCSH, or are their presence yet to be seen?
Cool questions, Thanks!
Have added my answers to the main feature.
Thank you Tom !
What is the point of making that massacre? Is it a punishment or something else?
Depends on what massacre do you mean?
If it's the massacres instigated by Assadists on both Alawi and Sunni population, plus the security services in the course of their 'uprising' (latest RUMINT is indicating over 1,000 people killed), then it's obvious: the IRGC is seeking for ways to de-stabilise Syria.
If it's the massacres instigated by the two ex-SNA units:
a) Many of Hamsa and Shah Sultan Murad are Turcomen: people of Turkish origin, living in what is nowadays northern Syria since around the 12th Century, and ethnically cleansed (by the same Alawites now staging this 'uprising') out of northern Latakia, back in 2013-2017. They have lots of 'open accounts' (see: revenge).
b) That said, alone considering the 'nature' of the two organisations in question, considering their earlier behaviour, I doubt it cost more than €10,000 to bribe them into running amok.
I see, thank you. They are settling old scores.
Why does Israel want Russia at Hmeini?
To have an excuse for continuous de-stabilisation of Syria.
The Syrians want back-rent from Russia when Russia couldn't even afford yesterday's rent? Glad to hear there's no place so war-torn lawyers can't set up shop ;)
Thank you: Syria needs stable help but seems unlikely to get it from a world of “power brokers”. Your analysis starts to make more sense of it!
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said about 745 civilians were killed in 30 massacres. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjgrd3geo
Much more details here:
https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1898779791416815695
Excellent summation of what’s coming down in Syria. With all differing groups trying to upsurge Syrian stability, your dissection of the chaos is most welcome.
My head aches trying to put it all together.
Thank you Tom. Question: Are the Russians leaving Syria or not? The media wrote about the evacuation of personnel by plane to Russia, and about the evacuation of equipment to Libya, and about ships sent from the Baltic Sea for evacuation. But the fact that the most violent clashes occurred near Russian bases indicates that the Russians do not intend to leave.
Nominally, the Russians were supposed to withdraw by the end of February. But, yes, they're still around, and the government in Damascus is too busy with other affairs but to kick them out. That said, Russians are regularly sending ships to withdraw additional vehicles and equipment, though not at a rate from back in December and January.
Could you please elaborate more on the role the uyghurs militias played in this "uprising"?
Uygurs are organised into the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP). The TIP was a part of the HTS over the last 7-8 years, perhaps slightly longer. They're Islamist and termed as jihadists and thus on the list of terrorist organisations. They fought against Assad, in north-western Idlib and were thus on the 'winning' side when the Assad regime was toppled.
They're still around but, nominally, now as a part of the re-established Syrian Army.
Do we know if they commited any of the massacres of alawites?
I find it really fascinating and almost weird to talk about uyghurs in Syria.
As far as I can say, haven't seen anybody _serious_ claiming they were involved.
Okay thanks!
I miss a sense of that. If pro-Assad insurgents were able to smuggle arms into Syria, they would be able to get themself out of Syria. Apparently, they had not support even from all Alawites, so this insurgency was predetermined to fail. Something like "if I have to die I take X people with me"? Or they were so stupid to believe they could succeed? Or they were fooled by IRGC or someone else?
So, because you've missed the point where the PKK/SDF left an entire truck convoy of the IRGC with arms and ammo pass via the territory of Syria it controls.... this is all impossible?
Really... I'm getting so tired of this trollia acuta...
No, I've not missed that, I've written if Asadists are able to smuggle arms in, they can get out persons, too. That convoy had to go through HTS or SNA controlled territory, too.
But main point is, even whole Assad army with huge amount of arms and ammo was defeated, they failed even to defend Lakatia because even local Alawites were agaisnt them. Why these guys think their insurgency may succeed? Are they stupid or were they fooled by someone? E.g. if that was orchestrated by IRGC, why Hezbollah was not involved? IMO if Hezbollah refused to join, it should be clear to IRGC they cannot succeed or IRGC has some vary bad intel.
There are no 'frontlines' any more: not every square inch along the lines between the PKK/SDF and the government forces is occuppied and subjected to permanent observation.
And re. Assadists: again, 'Assad or We burn the Country'. Read: blanc fanaticism and indoctrination with own superiority.