Q&A ...(just) on Syria... Part 2 (UPDATED)
Hello everybody!
Held up by helping several ‘readers’ treat their trollia acuta, yesterday, the Part 2 is a bit delayed….and then the Part 3 is yet to follow. In turn, this bought the time to find out more details about affairs in Syria in particular, making it easier to offer a substantiated responses. Thus, lets go straight to doing exactly that, before ‘returning’ to Ukraine-related topics.
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Syria
Few days after the meeting of top IRGC-QF and Assadist thugs mentioned in the Part 1;
A day after the Iranian Fars News Agency announced the establishment of ‘Islamic Resistance Front in Syria’,
a week after the ex-Nusra/HTS-Uygurs demanded 'the World' to support them in their struggle against the Communist regime in the PRC;
a few days after the gov in Damascus began demanding reparations from Russia (for all the damage its years-long, systematic and intentional bombardment of civilians has caused) as a 'confidence-building' measure,
a day or two after the US-supported PKK-surrogate ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) left a convoy of Iranian trucks with arms and ammo pass the quarter of Syria it controls, and
amid a months-long sternous Israeli efforts to convince the Druze of Syria into an Anschluss to Israel, as well as Israeli efforts to convince the White House into letting Russia retain its Hmeymim Air Base in the country,
…two Assadist militias (that ‘Islamic Resistance Front’, and the ‘Syrian Coast Shield Brigade’… both are classic Assadist unit-designations) launched attacks on army checkpoints around Latakia.
As described in the Part 1, between 1 and 5 March, and free along their motto ‘Assad or we burn the Country’, they’ve killed dozens of civilians (Alawite and Sunni alike; exact figures are still unknown), and over 150 police- and army officers and other ranks. Additionally, in Jableh (a town right next to the Russian-occupied Hmeymim AB), they have assaulted the local hospital (where they were repelled by the security element, but then held the building besieged), and the Istamo Helidrome (constructed by the Russians in 2015, north of the town; this was captured by the Assadists). In Latakia, they have besieged the Naval College, and in both Latakia and Tarous they were able to seize control over several districts (at least for some 24 hours). Above all, they have sabotaged the power and water supply (nearly all of the Latakia province is without electricity as of this morning), and attempted to seize all the six major hospitals.
The government reacted with a massive military operation. It blocked all roads leading to the Latakia province, then moved in and quickly defeated the main Assadist attacks. Moreover, it cracked down on looters who took advantage of the ensuing chaos. Dozens of Assadists were killed, at least as many detained. For all practical purposes, the ‘uprising’ was defeated by around 4 March. However, cells remain active in the countryside.
(BTW, simultaneously, Assadists attacked police and army positions in the Aleppo province, but the locals there - including the Shi’a of Nubol & Zahra, all the Christian leaders, plus the Ismailis in Qadmous, not only protected, but supported the authorities and fought them successfully back. On the contrary, the Druze of Suwayda, in southern Syria, first requested support of the army/police, then received this, then attempted to assassinate one sheikh that’s cooperating with the government, and then another of their sheikhs announced they are not going to be ruled by the government ‘any time soon’… where this cannot but be pure, distilled accident, because, as mentioned above, the Israelis are doing their utmost to convince the local Druze to request an Anschluss to Israel, but the majority said nyet…)
Theoretically, the government’s operation was about to be brought to a successful conclusion. Sure: lots of ‘civilians’ (some said ‘over 100’, confirmed were around 15), were killed in the process, too, but: there is clear evidence that the majority of ‘civilians’ in question were armed Assadists deliberately dressed in civilian clothes.
However, through 7 and early on 8 March, two of Türkiye-supported militias that have joined the insurgency, and then the re-established army, began running amok. These are the Hamzah Division and the Sultan Shah Murad Brigade: both were originally a part of the Türkiye-controlled SNA, established in 2016 with the purpose of serving Turkish interests; both are led by warlords; both having the history of banditry, extortion, theft, rape, and massacres; and both are were explicitly sanctioned by the USA. They began ‘taking revenge’ on Alawites. For example: one of the two, a group led by ‘Abu Amsha’, left a trail of massacres in its wake while driving from Tartous to Jableh (in Jableh, the Assadist assault on the local hospital was beaten back by the local police, but this was surrounded inside the building for two days). In the village of Shalfatiyya, Abu Amsha’s combatants have gathered all the men on the main street, lined them up and summarily executed them. They also murdered many men they found working their fields, and in at least two cases summarily executed entire families in their homes.
Whoever could, fled from them: yes, hundreds found refugee at the Russian Hmeymim AB, but then they - plus the Russians, plus the Israelis, and the Iranians, all supported by different of ‘told you so’ Europeans - began a well-orchestrated fake news operation in the social media, spreading lies that it was ‘ex-Nusra/HTS’ and ‘ex-Daesh’ (i.e. the former ‘Islamic State’) Jihadists that went rogue and are committing massacres on Alawite civilians….
Arguably, word is that by the noon yesterday the Hamzah and Sultan Shah Murad massacred over 300: whether this figure is correct - no clue right now. What is certain is that even far better informed contacts and sources than I am do not know exact figures. Fact is also that meanwhile the Syrian Army and police rushed to overpower, disarm, and detain the culprits, and they did so with similar success like combating the IRGC-supported Assadists.
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Regarding the US-, Russia- and now IRGC-supported ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’, a.k.a. PKK in Syria: Recently, the leader of the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan (imprisoned in Türkiye for over a decade), ordered the PKK to disarm and cease its (terrorist) operations in that country. Therefore, a question surfaced: do you think the SDF would disband if the PKK laid down their arms?
I cannot and I'm not going to 'predict future'.
Can only assess that, the way I know commanders of the 'SDF' - i.e. the PKK (and their pals in Iraq, too) - now that they're supported not only by the USA and Russia, but by the IRGC, too - there is simply no way they would disarm and give up.
Mind: the SDF is PKK.
Call it an offshoot, proxy, surrogate, whatever... it's the same people. Period.
The PKK/SDF was originally (back in the period 1985-2011) supported by the Soviets and Assadists.
Then, in 2011-2012, they've massacred or forced into exile the leaders of 13-14 Kurdish political parties/movements in north-eastern Syria, and took over the areas these have controlled - and that in cooperation with the Assadists (most of the Kurdish parties in question were either affiliated, or even allied with the KDP in Iraq).
Then, in 2012-2013, they've quasi-cooperated with Syrian insurgents as these were crushing the Assadist regime in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2013-2014, they've cooperated (rather openly, even if claiming something else) with the Daesh ('IS') as this was spreading and then subverting and destroying the insurgency in north-eastern Syria.
Then, in 2015, they've sided with the USA, quasi to 'combat the Daesh'. Over the next three years, they've 'fought' the Daesh primarily in form of waiting for the US (and allied) air strikes to pulverise everything in their way. Meanwhile, in the rear, in 'liberated' territories, they were ethnically cleansing the Sunni Arabs or hijacking and forcefully recruiting their kids, while already cooperating with the IRGC-QF (as far as the UAE paid them to do so).
Then, in 2015-2018, as the IRGC and the Russians 'recovered' Aleppo, they fell into the back of the Syrian insurgents and fought them as well... and over the following years enjoyed both the US and Russian protection.
In 2022, they were siding with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and announcing the 'downfall of the imperialist puppet regime in Kyiv'...
Mere three months ago, they were crying about the downfall of the Assad regime, facilitating re-deployments ('evacuation') of Russian troops on the territory under their control, attempting to seize eastern Aleppo, the local airport and the area further east - and announcing an 'IS takeover in Damascus'.
A month later, when facing mass popular protests against them, they began publicly showing flags of (independent/sovereign) Syria (have reported about all of this, back in December last year, and January this year).
... and now they're collaborating with the IRGC to support an Assadist 'uprising'...
Now tell me: how am I supposed to predict what is an obvious gang of terrorists, turncoats, and experts in surviving whatever comes their way going to do as next?
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Re: SDF letting through Iranian convoy. Assuming they did so with American blessings, would the Americans be blessing other parties in this?
Cannot say the USA are supporting the Assadist uprising, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the US troops in Syria are ‘at least looking the other way’. That said, one should keep in mind that the US troops are not deployed everywhere within the parts of Syria controlled by the PKK/SDF, and thus they do not know everything that’s going on.
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Where would the Iranians be heading?
The truck convoy in question drove via the PKK/SDF-controlled territory towards ‘central Syria’, before ‘disappearing in western direction’. Read: it ended somewhere in Latakia.
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Also, are IRGC-QF directly involved in newly formed IRF or SCSH, or are their presence yet to be seen?
The IRF is ‘presented in the public’ via the Fars News Agency: an instance that is, AFAIK, at least ‘closely affiliated’, if not directly controlled by ‘Ayatollah’ Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, and thus the Chief of State in Iran.
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Bottom line: ever since its independence in 1943-1946 period, Syria is a playground of major outside powers (should there be any doubts, please inform yourself starting here). Today, even more so. There’s an entire ‘exclusive club’ doing its utmost to rip the country apart. In no particular order: Israel, USA, Iran (i.e. IRGC/Hezbollah), Russia, Türkiye, PKK, France, even some of Germans (AfD)… and Jordan have their own designs for the country.
Therefore: jumping to conclusions is the worst possible idea.
If you think you’ve found something of interest: send me the link. I’ll check. If you do not understand the participants and relations: ask. I’m unlikely to know all the answers right away, at least as unlikely to always be ‘right’, but: I’m patient enough to search for them, and at least I know where to find the answers.
Foremost, any misuse of the ‘comment’ function of this blog for hysteric jumps to conclusions - especially those based on racism, hatred, intolerance, and cluelessness - and any attempts to run fake-news-campaigns is going to lead to only one measure.
A permanent ban. Period.
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(…to be continued…)
Thanks for the heads-up, Tom, one question: are there any Russian armed forces in Hmeimim AB, having operational combat planes yet? What has their role been in this uprising?
Thanks Tom!
Re: SDF letting through Iranian convoy. Assuming they did so with American blessings, would the Americans be blessing other parties in this?
Where would the Iranians be heading?
Also, are IRGC-QF directly involved in newly formed IRF or SCSH, or are their presence yet to be seen?