The worry is if the ZSU cannot adapt in wartime with a gun literally pointed at it's head what are the chances of the ZSU reforming once there is a ceasefire? Probably zero.
Large bureaucracies are very hard to reform. Here in the UK the NHS gets more money every year and literally does less very year. Productivity is down 18% since pre covid. The bigger problem in the military is the culture of never questioning orders.
Dear Tom, when I started to read this TLDR, I am like what? Ah, okay it's good old Tom, ordnung and all, understood.
Look already for some time (6+ month I think) there is a system of ePoints, where each kill/hit of various kinds earns points.
There are video confirmation for each one, there is central verificatiors that check those videos. Of course this all goes not without it's problems.
There were some sample ratings published these days, very logical, besides a few units we never heard about. I will post links later.
And already all this time they could order from MOD FPVs using this system. The only thing that has changed, before it was MOD list to select from, now it is directly from manufacturers, means the unit can select which type or model to order.
And I hope this would be moving from a level of brigade to the level or Corps once they are established. But that could be quite problematic, a much more serious issue then those you mention. Because it is quite different if batallion would order using batallion results, or if Corps would order using its results. Quite different dynamic and flow of information and power.
Okay, it seems that charts/numbers initially published by Butusov are busy cleaned up from net, but it's not possible to clean up them from mind :) Here is example: https://t.me/serhii_flash/4932
But the were much more like strategical, tactical level, etc.
Now with regards to Corps, again Butusov confirmed 18 Corps and liquidation of OTUs. All previous information confirmed, plus a Corps on the basis of 5th Assault, 72nd Mech. And a few old fards are also becoming Corps commanders, so the would be at least 10 "good" Corps.
18 Corps?? Sounds like an awful lot. Suggests 6 armies (@3 Corps). In U.S. terms this is 18 LtGenerals and 6 Generals (4 stars). How large is the ACTUAL Ukrainian army?
So about 320K on or near the front line. Not many to counter the Russian army (at least 600K in Eastern Ukraine?) even given the Russian wastage of meat waves. Yes, I know that meat waves (called human wave attacks in the Korean War) serve the Russian army's purposes.
War observers say 30 brigades perhaps with 50% of its personnel or even less are on the front line. They are not replenished with fresh personnel, there are not allowed to take a rest. For example 110th mechanised brigade received only 21 men during month.
You don't need parity to defend. But it does mean Ukraine needs complete operational surprise if it is to concentrate forces and attack as it did into Kursk. Still there btw, despite all the nay-sayers. FPV and ISR drones are a big force multiplier too. Some sectors of Ukraine's frontline look alarmingly undermanned on paper. But this has now become a deliberate tactic. Drones dominate the battlefields through which Russia struggles to make any headway. If they do attack, Ukrainian units which have been held back to preserve manpower move up into the line and then withdraw again once the Russians are defeated. It's why capturing a couple of fields in exchange for heavy losses has become a major victory for Russia.
You should write from 1 million and more as of regarding defence forces of Ukraine. However very small fraction of those defend the country on the frontline.
That is not there anymore there as far as I see, maybe left somewhere. But otherwise it was unwanted leak as I understand. Maybe you can find something for yourself.
Thanks, was not able to find anymore details after a link I read about the scoring system set up by the Unmanned Forces Command describing the drone/FPV kill rating.
Ukraine always reports 3-4 millions drone produced /acquired per year.
And yet the drones are rationed based on market or meritocratic principles.
Drones should be allocated per frontline and threat level. It doesn't matter which brigade is located there. It should receive the drones before they are thrashed and stomped by the Russians.
It doesn't help to move some firebrigades around while regular one are without weapons.
Look, if you would like participate in this discussion I could do that. But I believe it is best for you to look back into your expectations/predictions and try to think what went wrong. Like for example with koreans in Kursk or russians in Pokrovsk. It is end of February to remind you.
Now, it is not possible to "allocate" drones to front. This what ru army does, and as a result by the time they arrive they are useless, because of the type, frequency or whatever.
Drawing the connections between successful units and drone manufactures solves this:
Successful unit have experience of success, in terms of organising work, using certain drones types, modifications, combinations. Each unit has different experience. And there is no "drone playbook" written anywhere in the world.
This points system provides successful units with more "investments" so to speak, to further expand their experience. Or maybe give them freedom to try something new.
Connecting them now to manufacturers directly, makes the supplied equipment quality finally relevant. Not like spending another half the price for upgrading drone on the front lines.
So this approach allows to actually combine combat and R&D work financing.
It is not possible to do this through some smart people sitting in Kiev, analysing everything, drawing conclusions and making decisions, or even through super smart computer system.
Introduction of "commercial" aspect allows the massive flow of information to go unimpeded. This always happens with "free market system" vs "centralised planning", when properly implemented. Though bad implementation may ruin it all.
If you, or anyone else for that matter, is willing to understand this in greater detail, I would highly recommend reading one famous Austrian, Ludwig von Mises. In particular, his book "Human action", it was unbelievably enlightening for me.
So there were 10 k NK soldiers în Kursk and maybe 1 was captured. Zelenski ensures us that all NK dead soldiers have their faces burnt by ever present Russian soldiers. Sure, Janet.
As about Pokrovsk: the Russians are now West of Pokrovsk. They are encircling the city and ckearing their rear areas. That's because Ukraine has re-inforced Pokrovsk.
The economic theories have no appliance în war. Social theories are actually usefull with what creates cohesion and shared values.
Yes, this was why I was hesitant to respond. There is no willingness to see anything besides pre-framed concepts. And you are not even questioning who has framed them for you. Pokrovsk will not be taken, full stop. Not this year, not next, how about that?
Look, some people are allowing themselves unwarranted predictions and claims for a breakfast, second breakfast, lunch, dinner and supper. Why should I restrict myself?
That's a blatant lie. There is big lack of drones, munitions in the frontline, even bigger than in 2023 and nobody in MOD or government cares of it. Everything is going fine for them as it's going worse for ZSU.
Concerning your scenario about Unit A and Unit B expending drones. This is idiocy Ukraine inherited from NATO. Here's essentially the same scenario, but in Afghanistan:
Region A had 100 IED and TIC incidents this month. Region B had 500. Therefore, we're "winning" in Region A and need to send more resources to Region B.
That's literally how they were trying to measure success in Afghanistan and I'm not even exaggerating.
Back in the day I read a claim that in at least one instance the order was given to add the bodies of the dead chickens and pigs in the village to the count - 'they are dead Communist chickens and pigs.'
Just as in a report prepared on war crimes in Gaza an Israeli soldier noted that of 200 Gaza men killed only 10 could be cofirmed as having ties to Hamas, but that the local commander ordered that all be listed as 'terrorists' in the units combat report...
Thanks for the fourth part of what appears to be a neverending (unfortunately) collection. Throughout all parts you have reported the problems of not just the ZSU, but most (if not all) of NATO militaries, Russia,... Are there any contemporary examples of militaries capable of learning lessons from different wars, disseminating them, adapting, and so on? What about examples from bygone times, such as WW1 or WW2? It would be instructive to compare the ZSU with these good examples, and see if there's a pathway to reform.
Thanks Tom for the heads up on Part 4 from EEMC. Still many simple logistical and incompetent decision by the ZSU Unmanned Systems Command on the FPV allocation, is the foreign sourced OWADs/FPV supply from the western countries drone alliance(focus of support) for supporting Ukraine included in the 'decentralized' supply allotment now? Or just the Ukrainian manufactured FPVs supply only?
Looking forward to part 5 and from the looks of it, the series might reach 2 decimal number orders.
Thanks Tom, the NATO countries for drone support for Ukraine, funding and manufacturing support should at least step in if their OWAD/FPV supply for the ZSU is being mismanaged for effective employment in the war because those are still resources which the said countries worked for and also funded.
Eagerly waiting for the Corps reorganization updates, Corps level support units establishment should be also an indicator if the ZSU is serious in implementing the Corps organization.
Warning: This comment exceeds 160 characters. Only suitable for people who can read and fully comprehend written text exceeding 160 characters. Also, to all aspiring English grammar teachers reading this, I don't care if my comment structure doesn't suite your reading preferences. This is my comment, so my writing style preferences apply.
As a frontline military practitioner, I spent more than a decade in various conflicts in Africa serving various different masters. Looking back at my career when I was still a bigger idiot than I am now, I can only say that whatever my contributions were in any conflict spanning my whole career, and whatever the extent of personal losses and suffering I sustained during those phases of my life, I can confirm without any doubt that everything I ever did was for nothing other than testing and improving my own skills and experience mainly thanks to the idiocratic processes governing modern day politics. However, there are two major lessons I learnt from my military experience in Africa, namely:
* Lesson 1: When things continuously remain dysfunctional, it is being managed to remain dysfunctional; and
* Lesson 2: In Africa, never a good deed will remain unpunished.
So, looking at the situation in Ukraine, I speak from a perspective being experienced in working with Ukrainians, Russian-Ukrainians (yes boys and girls, this is actually a thing), and Russians. Now, just to be clear, I am still a supporter of the Ukrainian effort, although it does come with caveats, some of it well explained by Tom. That said, in my last comment on one of Tom's articles I stated that sometimes I tend to disagree with some of Tom's commentary. Just to clarify that point, I tend to agree with his military analysis which is mostly exceptionally accurate, but I also tend to disagree with some of his political analysis simply because we have different experiences in terms of translating political strategy into military strategy ('military incompetence' and 'political incompetence' terms snd conditions apply). In relation to the recent articles about Military Incompetence, in my experience it is something that started becoming an issue around the mid-1990's after the [supposed] end of the Cold War, and it was then when it started to become professionalized and institutionalized leading to the great dysfunctions we see now in most Western and Western aligned militaries. However, that is not my point of discussion in this comment. My subject of discussion is my experience with working with Ukraine during my career prior to the Russo-Ukraine War.
My initial experience with Ukrainians in military operations was in central Africa (not CAR, but refering to the region consisting of a cluster of countries still engaged in low-intensity warfare to this day, some still being at war since independence more than 6 decades ago), starting around the turn of the millenium. During those days Ukrainians in Africa were famous for only two things, namely:
* 1: Gun running (with occasional 'humanitarian aid' assistance); and
* 2: Best sources for good unadultered (as in not produced in Africa under questionable conditions containing lethal toxins) alcohol at very affordable prices.
During this same period I also had the fortune of working with Russian airborne forces. To summarize the differences between these two historical Soviet allies as a non-Soviet, the Ukrainians were highly skilled at avoiding direct engagement in any fights, which included the Mi-24 Hind crews who sometimes had to provide CAS, but always failed to arrive at the party on time. The Russians, on the other hand, were always dependable when it came to a fight, why the Russians until now are more favored in Africa simply due to their willingness to get down and dirty when needed to. From a corruption perspective, Russians were less corrupt than the Ukrainians (not saying Russians weren't corrupt, just that they were less corrupt under the same circumstances).
So, fast forward a few years after 2 years of jungle operations in central Africa, I moved on in life to do God's work in support of USF-I in Iraq. Interesting facts about that war was that just a few years prior to the US-led invasion, Ukraine secretly sold modernized air defense systems to a UN sanctioned Iraq against the wishes of the US government [Rep]. Also, prior to the US-led invasion, Russia shared much intelligence about Iraq with the US, even though Russian public media strategy 'opposed' the US-led invasion. Come 2005, the unit I was attached to was hastily deployed to an old [and nearly forgotten] Iraqi Army ammo depot located close to the town of Hatra, also conveniently located about 50 km from an abandoned Iraqi Air Force base located close to the town of Al Qayyarah. The purpose of this mission was to secure the [still stocked] ammo depot, and to take control of the abandoned air base until arrival of reinforcements. Why? Well, in the aftermath of the failed defense of Al Kut during 2004 by the Ukrainian contingent (as integrated under the control of Polish forces in support of MNC-I), someone in USF-I decided it would be a good idea to remove the Ukrainian contingent from frontline operations and rather reassign them to protection tasks in outlying areas. This specific ammo depot containing primarily artillery munitions was one of those locations 'of lesser immediate importance'. Problem is, when the Ukrainian unit commander saw what was inside the ammo shelters, 'For the love of money' by The O'Jays probably played in his mind. Shortly after this site was under Ukrainian control, MNC-I started tracking unauthorized civilian flights landing at the abandoned Iraqi Air Base, later to be confirmed to be part of the infamous Viktor B's global arms exports network. Also, around the same time, MNC-I faced greater frequency of IED attacks involving artillery munitions on the MSR leading to Mosul. So, short story is that the Ukrainians were quite good entrepreneurs selling off the ex Iraqi Army ammunition stocks to whoever was in the market for buying. Needless to say, this drastically fast tracked the Ukrainian withdrawal from Iraq, also creating much disgust and frustration amongst the US Coalition Forces.
So yes, in my opinion based on what I have witnessed and experienced in Ukraine until now, Ukrainian institutional corruption is currently Russia's greatest asset in its war against Ukraine. This is one of the reasons why the US gov [Rep] is not too keen on continuing military aid to Ukraine to avoid US arms becoming the stockpiles for future Viktor B 2.0 alikes from supplying US technology to its enemies, even if most of it is considered outdated compared to current US milspecs.
Bottomline: If a system remains corrupt without any effective change, it is managed to remain corrupt.
Ukraine has made a good leap in improving corruption since 2014. (Although Putin has invested huge money to keep it corrupted.) And that's the reason Putin has attacked it, because if not, Ukrainians would be less corrupt and richer than Russians shortly.
There's no evidence of sell of western arms to US enemies now, so this what you say is BS. Trump is just angry to Zelensky because Zel. (unlike Putin) has refused to fabricate fakes about Biden in 2020. Many "old-way" classic Republicans like Mitch McConnell supports Ukraine. Trump is corrupt himself. Just check some articles how Russian money helped him to avoid bankruptcy. You'll see it in few years, if you let him do what he does.
Just see how corrupt by power are US Rep congressmen and senators - they deny Russia has invaded Ukraine, they deny truth, just to keep their chairs. And it's just the first month Trump's rule.
Some of your points are valid simply because it is not explained in detail. Some subjects are not explained in greater details because its beyond the scope of this limited scope social media commentary. I also have no interest in explaining some things I mentioned simpky because I don't care to expand on it because its irrelevant. The situation in Ukraine is complex, and yes, Russia has always had a big hand to play in maintaining the state of corruption in the system of government of Ukraine as a non-violent means of keeping its military capabilities pacified. It's a common irregular warfare doctrine, same as we see in every single country in this world, and I mean every single one. So yes, no denying your reference to Western corruption simply because that is how the world functions. However, what you do not understand is how politics actually work in terms of true power. What most people don't understand is that true power only exists in the shadows, and you will never see it. The public figures you see on TV has no power. The have power of public narrative influence, yes, but they lack any functional power in terms of government, especially within the systems commonly referred to as the 'great powers'. What most people don't know is that everyone has a boss, and that applies to every single person perceived to be some form of power within the current public information space. Truth is, all the perceived 'powerful' people in the world exist by the grace of someone unknown being more powerful. Understand that, and you'll understand why this world is as f#cked up as it is. We can't change anything. In fact, nobody can.
Regarding your point about the threat of Ukrainian battlefield 'entrepreneurs' trading Western arms, believe what you want. Reality is that with the current levels of desperation that exists in Ukraine there has been quite a bit of behind the scenes 'horse trading' going on via Donetsk and Luhansk into the hands of the largest FDI contributor to these breakaway territories, and that is not referring to Russia. US concerns not explained within the public space are real. As I explained before, Ukraine has already lost the war of motivation of its own human resources required to continue this war for any longer. The best worst solution now is for the war to end, and for Kyiv to accept its current territorial status as its new international borders. The reasons: Much more important than what is perceived to be Ukrainian sovereignty, and too long to write in a social media comment. There is an old saying: You only control what you can protect. What this means for Kyiv is that what remains of Ukraine now is what Ukraine can protect (for now, but who knows for how much longer). The sooner this war ends, the lower the probability of Ukraine losing more territory. That is fact.
Exactly. Best case scenario for all is a Korea 2.0 'frozen conflict' as we see now between North Korea and South Korea. That way everyone wins and 'saves face'. Post Korea War, South Korea was just as corrupt as present day Ukraine. Now they are less corrupt, but with improved living conditions.
Perfectly fair. I know plenty of such talk already since September 2022 (i.e. since the offensive that liberated eastern Kharkiv and brought the ZSU across the Oskil River). Already back then, there were 'loud voices' explaining that perhaps the population of the Donbass does not want to be liberated. And warning it would be a big trouble trying to re-integrate the same back into Ukraine. And then others, warning what it would take to rebuild the destroyed cities, towns, villages and hamlets, the majority of which was meanwhile de-populated.
...and then, what about Crimea, the liberation of which is likely to become a particularly massive undertaking?
On the other hand, there is the 'principle' of (what is left) of the 'international law and order', along which no borders can be changed thorugh violence any more. And then the principle of not giving in to bullies: why 'gratifying' Pudding with giving him 20% of Ukraine? And if so, where's the guarantee that's going to satisfy him and he is - or his successors are - going to stop?
Finally, at least according to the Ukrainian releases, over 60% of Ukrainians (still in Ukraine) want a total liberation...
BTW, if you check recent interviews with some of ZSU's brigade-COs, at least one is calculating that a re-training of the entire force wouldn't last more than 6-9 months. Add 2-3 months for expansion of brigades into corpses (i.e. divisions). With other words: at least I haven't heard any estimate into the range of 2 years.
From the very beginning of this conflict I always had the opinion that this war will be a very long walk on a very bitter road. But there is no other choice if Ukraine wants to exist as a sovereign state.
The major obstacle to proper reform of the ZSU is the Kyiv political system, and unfortunately political interference controls the ZSU at both the Strategic and Operational levels. It is only the Tactical levels of command & control that are somewhat autonomous from political interference. I have seen what proper political reform looks like when done correctly under conditions of war, especially what can be done (and has to be done) to effectively reform a military organization from top down to adapt to the evolving military situation. However, before a military can be reformed effectively, the government needs to be reformed. This is why nothing is happening in Ukraine because the government refuses to reform itself to be better suited to recapturing territories. Also, the minimum timespan required to reform the military system is 10 years which is the timeline required to mature current combat experienced and competent Field Officers through the Staff Officer ranks to create competent Brigade structures suited and tactically adapted to the current (and future anticipated) conditions of war, and then into the General Officer ranks to create Divisions required to improve Operational level combat efficiency and effectiveness. To achieve all of this, the majority of senior command structures in the current ZSU need to be cleared out of their positions, and unfortunately in the present day loyalty is still valued over competence in the ZSU. Competent commanders are mostly sidelined for being 'problematic' when recommending [demanding] reforms. How do I know this? I just know it. What I also know is that Russia has the same problems, although reform and adaptation is happening at a much more rapid rate than in the ZSU. Last point about retraining challenges in the ZSU is that until now there is still no consensus about the model to which the ZSU needs to be reformed to (which would determine the training requirement). Why? Because nobody can agree about what would be the most suitable structures based on a proper needs assessment. The ZSU still functions on a survivalist model (why tactical units are still micromanagement), and nobody wants to take responsibility for implementing radical changes required fearing total collapse of the already fragile structures. Point is, the retraining and reform of the ZSU required to take back territory from Russia is not going to happen.
Problem 2: The will of the people.
February 2025 is the 11 year anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War. If we look at Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea over this time period we notice that not once have the original Ukrainian populations resisted Russian occupation. Yes, there are some Kyiv sympathizers and collaborators remaining in these territories, but only in extremely minor numbers. What we need to start considering now is that maybe the historical Ukrainian populations still residing in these territories do not want to return back to Kyiv control. Is it so far fetched to think that maybe the populations of these territories choose to be part of Russia instead of Ukraine, why they still choose to rather subject themselves to Russian controlled military conscription instead of defecting to Ukrainian controlled territories? If the populations of the current Russian occupied territories choose to remain under Russian control after 11 years of occupation, is this not what we Western 'democracy' preaching hypocrites would define as exercising democratic choice? I say, if these people still choose (and fight) to remain seperated from Unrsine, then give them what they want. What does Kyiv gain from taking back territories occupied by people who refuses to be controlled by Kyiv, and what measures are Kyiv going to take to suppress dissent? That is why I say the Korea model is the only solution going forward (where hardline opposing ideologies remain separated by hard borders until everyone dies/forgets why they became separated in the first place).
Bottomline: Ukraine needs to halt military operations to limit its national debt. It also needs the large number of human resources dedicated to trying to recapture territory that doesn't wish to be recaptured to rebuild its economy to start generating revenue and increase production to reduce its debt burden which is turning into a greater enemy than Russia could ever be.
What about the predominantly native Russian speakers living in the part of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv? Are they loyal predominantly to Kyiv or would they prefer to live under Russian-dominated governance? E.g., Odesa, Kherson ... other major cities and oblasts with predominantly Russian peoples?
Sorry, but I am doing a bit of guessing here. Not very familiar with the ethnic domination of particular areas comprising the "whole" of Ukraine, Kyiv controlled and Russian controlled. But I am curious!
The Korea model is no way forward. It is just freezing the decision for a later point in time with the much poorer side deciding to solve the situation by military power only, as otherwise they would implode like the USSR did.
The author of the post is biased. Otherwise, he would have also mentioned the well-known facts about Russian corruption, when weapons and ammunition for Chechen fighters were purchased at Russian army warehouses. The Russians, by the way, have never hidden this and even mention it in popular TV series ("Spetsnaz", "Brigada" and others).
This is not true. Iran and North Korea supply Russia with weapons and are not afraid of Russian corruption. So, references to someone's corruption are nothing more than political games of interested parties.
Maybe I'm biased, maybe I don't care to spend more time explaining and explaining complex subjects leading to more questions than answers and even more explaining which most people will never comprehend anyway.
Thanks a lot. Kind of cross-confirming a lots of things I've got to hear (especially about 'Ukrainians in ....').
Out of curiosity... while 'in that part of Africa', did you happen to have run into an ex-USAF gent that used to fly AC-130s (so also during the Desert Storm, back in 1991), and then, few years later, converted to MiG-21s (while contracted by one of local air force)?
Also, there should have been a few Algerians and Mexicans around (have been told so: never managed to find out their names, though).
Re the ex-USAF AC-130 driver turned MIG-21 hotshot, that story sounds as far fetched as Madonna's children. No, I have never heard about this character in any of the places I was deployed spanning across 5 bordering countries. I also cannot think of any use for someone with that claimed experience. I'll explain why. The AC-130 primarily operates in support of SOF, so if this story checks out, he would be experienced in dealing with SOF. The only country where US SOF were deployed in small numbers in that region is Uganda. However, why I think this story is a bit far fetched is because (1) Conversion from AC-130 to Mig 21 is not just a straight forward exercise, and I don't think even if that was to happen that the UPDF AF would give him the required flying hours to truely master that machine effectively; and (2) the use of Mig 21 for CAS in jungle operations is as useful as a one legged man at an ass-kicking contest. For CAS missions in central African jungle operations, helicopters are the most effective, especially when equipped with 30 mm guns (anything smaller than 30 mm is not very effective to penetrate the thick tree canopies which even blocks out GPS signals and SATCOM, also the reason why Russo-Ukraine style UAV operations also offer very limited value in that region of the woods). AC-130, however, that would be considered a game changer, but unfortunately those machines aren't flying there. So, my point is that the operational requirements do not suite the skills and experience of this character. Look, I'm not saying it never happened. There are many people that go to Africa with ideas only to realize that their ideas don't work in Africa. They sometimes end up in local expat oriented bars and talk many stories to impress other expats. There is a reason why Africa is so volatile, and will remain volatile for decades to come. After Mogadishu circa 1993, the US is still very much allergic to getting directly involved in African conflicts [contrary to popular PRC propaganda], simply because it's a totally different beast to what they are used to. That is why the US prefers contracted services and proxy partner nations in Africa for plausible deniability.
The Mexicans in central Africa is an interesting case, and a cause of major concern simply because their operating budgets exceed the combined defense spending of all the nations in that region combined. So, choosing not to disclose their affiliations for reasons I choose not to explain, let me just say that it is the same group that won special mention on the February 20, 2025, USA shitlist as an international terror group, which is also the
same group that basically controls the Amazon basin ('charlie' central). The thing is, Uncle SAM is tightening the noose around the neck of this specific group (and a few others), why they (Mexicans) decided years ago to diversify their production and distribution capacity to the jungles of central Africa following the same modus operandi they maintain in the Amazon. This is one of the reasons why central Africa remains hostile because it is managed to remain hostile. Why? Because they are well aware of the [past] US unwillingness to get directly involved in unfamiliar central African terrain, and they [Mexicans] have better control [through financial means], over the central African politicians. Now, if you knew the details how that specific group of alternative farming Mexicans established themselves in Mexico, you would also understand one of the reasons behind the growing hostility of the current US administration towards the present post-1994 South African government. That, however, is a story for another day.
Thx, Is OK. Africa is huge and you can't know everybody. I've primarily asked because from what you've originally posted, I was not entirely sure where exactly did you serve.
The AC-130-driver in question retired from the USAF and went 'there' as a PMC. Served in the air force of a country (very far) 'down south' (and flew MiG-21s) as of 1997-1999. Flew combat sorties in two wars, too... of course, unofficially.
The Mexicans (and Algerians...and a group of Ukrainians) did serve - as PMCs, too - and (a lot) closer to where you were. 'Just a tad further north' (at least on usual maps of that part of the world), and then in the 2000s.
Like in the case of the USAF-veteran in question, nothing of that had anything to do with official or unofficial politics of the governments in question: they were all PMCs.
Take Siemens for example (our majority over 90% supplier). Huge sales surge resulting from the chip crisis. I don't know what they did with the money - paid dividends? Whatever- it wasn't stored for the OBVIOUS sales dip that would follow. Even a local toilet tissue manufacturer understood this. Panic buy due to Covid - clearly people aren't going to poop any more than before. So they prepared for the coming lull. Now, Siemens is laying off thousands and when things pick up again they won't have the manpower / expertise to deal with it.
...the same like with the VW and the KMT, the last year: first pay billions in dividends, then the CEOs are ah so very much surprised, they lack the money they've paid in dividends...
The public listed companies are under some perverse incentives, with the CEOs' pay being tied to the share price rising.
And one way to raise the share price is to give large dividends, making the shares more attractive for the buyers.
Another method is share buy-back (done to excess by Boeing and other companies).
These companies cannot plan beyond the next quarterly report, and if the CEO declares that his company is eg going to invest 50% of the profits into business research and development for the next three years, the shareholders'll crucify him.
maybe decentralised control of drones is okay in this instance? We know the good drone operators already monitor effectiveness is no need for this to be centralised…high on the smell of your own farts in this one
What's difficult to disentangle, in my opinion, is the extent to which this kind of obviously silly laissez faire approach to the war effort is something indigenously Ukrainian and to what extent it might have been shaped by the need to "chat up" congressional Republicans with myth-making about free markets. It's similar in this regard to the way that Iraq completely went to the dogs under Paul Bremer with the would-be satrap Chalabi and the ideology that, if only Iraq were completely deregulated the invisible hand would sort out reconstruction and state building.
Hi Tom. Do you have any information on what weapons the Ukrainian Defense Ministry is purchasing abroad? There is a lot of information in the media about weapons supplies (aid packages) from Sweden, Germany, Poland and other countries. It should be understood that this is military aid financed by the governments of these countries. As for the Ukrainian government, only the allocation of funds for drones and artillery ammunition is mentioned. Against the backdrop of ongoing scandals with corruption in supplies for the army, my question corresponds to the topic of your work.
Got a question. Given the talk about the Corps Reorganization going on, and who was picked to lead it, do you think it's a sign maybe the worm is turning a bit? The people being picked are not Srysky's guys, but seemingly the opposite. It appears to me (and I'm fully ready to hear how I'm wrong if you have info I'm missing) that the Ground Forces Commander is driving this and keeping Srysky out of it. On one hand, this is more proof the system is screwed up because technically it should be Srysky leading this charge (admittedly through subordinates). On the other, it is putting the right guys into the right positions and setting up things to address several major issues and appears to be keeping Srysky's hands out of it. Sure, Ukraine has tons of issues to address, but it seems they are actually making some headway here. Slow learning is better than NO learning.
The worry is if the ZSU cannot adapt in wartime with a gun literally pointed at it's head what are the chances of the ZSU reforming once there is a ceasefire? Probably zero.
Large bureaucracies are very hard to reform. Here in the UK the NHS gets more money every year and literally does less very year. Productivity is down 18% since pre covid. The bigger problem in the military is the culture of never questioning orders.
Dear Tom, when I started to read this TLDR, I am like what? Ah, okay it's good old Tom, ordnung and all, understood.
Look already for some time (6+ month I think) there is a system of ePoints, where each kill/hit of various kinds earns points.
There are video confirmation for each one, there is central verificatiors that check those videos. Of course this all goes not without it's problems.
There were some sample ratings published these days, very logical, besides a few units we never heard about. I will post links later.
And already all this time they could order from MOD FPVs using this system. The only thing that has changed, before it was MOD list to select from, now it is directly from manufacturers, means the unit can select which type or model to order.
And I hope this would be moving from a level of brigade to the level or Corps once they are established. But that could be quite problematic, a much more serious issue then those you mention. Because it is quite different if batallion would order using batallion results, or if Corps would order using its results. Quite different dynamic and flow of information and power.
....and then the next issue: the establishment of corps-commands was announced...
....and ever since: crickets...
Okay, it seems that charts/numbers initially published by Butusov are busy cleaned up from net, but it's not possible to clean up them from mind :) Here is example: https://t.me/serhii_flash/4932
But the were much more like strategical, tactical level, etc.
Now with regards to Corps, again Butusov confirmed 18 Corps and liquidation of OTUs. All previous information confirmed, plus a Corps on the basis of 5th Assault, 72nd Mech. And a few old fards are also becoming Corps commanders, so the would be at least 10 "good" Corps.
https://t.me/ButusovPlus/17676
There are some discussions online. You may join one of them, if you feel like so :)) https://x.com/bodmiruk/status/1893923769409810845
Thx. Yes. I know about all of this.
But, so far, haven't heard about anything of this being actually implemented.
Hope, there's not the usual situation of 'somebody' running around and explaining, 'there's no time for that/it's not the right time now'....
18 Corps?? Sounds like an awful lot. Suggests 6 armies (@3 Corps). In U.S. terms this is 18 LtGenerals and 6 Generals (4 stars). How large is the ACTUAL Ukrainian army?
Those are rather division sized, 15-20K, so no direct comparison. Total army is 800K+ with 60%+ non-combat units/personnel.
So about 320K on or near the front line. Not many to counter the Russian army (at least 600K in Eastern Ukraine?) even given the Russian wastage of meat waves. Yes, I know that meat waves (called human wave attacks in the Korean War) serve the Russian army's purposes.
War observers say 30 brigades perhaps with 50% of its personnel or even less are on the front line. They are not replenished with fresh personnel, there are not allowed to take a rest. For example 110th mechanised brigade received only 21 men during month.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUtQcNTV7Eo&ab_channel=%D0%91%D1%83%D1%82%D1%83%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%9F%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%81
You don't need parity to defend. But it does mean Ukraine needs complete operational surprise if it is to concentrate forces and attack as it did into Kursk. Still there btw, despite all the nay-sayers. FPV and ISR drones are a big force multiplier too. Some sectors of Ukraine's frontline look alarmingly undermanned on paper. But this has now become a deliberate tactic. Drones dominate the battlefields through which Russia struggles to make any headway. If they do attack, Ukrainian units which have been held back to preserve manpower move up into the line and then withdraw again once the Russians are defeated. It's why capturing a couple of fields in exchange for heavy losses has become a major victory for Russia.
You should write from 1 million and more as of regarding defence forces of Ukraine. However very small fraction of those defend the country on the frontline.
Good day, there is also a reward system/incentives for the highest scoring FPV kills by units, would you be able to share a link?
That is not there anymore there as far as I see, maybe left somewhere. But otherwise it was unwanted leak as I understand. Maybe you can find something for yourself.
Thanks, was not able to find anymore details after a link I read about the scoring system set up by the Unmanned Forces Command describing the drone/FPV kill rating.
Ukraine always reports 3-4 millions drone produced /acquired per year.
And yet the drones are rationed based on market or meritocratic principles.
Drones should be allocated per frontline and threat level. It doesn't matter which brigade is located there. It should receive the drones before they are thrashed and stomped by the Russians.
It doesn't help to move some firebrigades around while regular one are without weapons.
Look, if you would like participate in this discussion I could do that. But I believe it is best for you to look back into your expectations/predictions and try to think what went wrong. Like for example with koreans in Kursk or russians in Pokrovsk. It is end of February to remind you.
Now, it is not possible to "allocate" drones to front. This what ru army does, and as a result by the time they arrive they are useless, because of the type, frequency or whatever.
Drawing the connections between successful units and drone manufactures solves this:
Successful unit have experience of success, in terms of organising work, using certain drones types, modifications, combinations. Each unit has different experience. And there is no "drone playbook" written anywhere in the world.
This points system provides successful units with more "investments" so to speak, to further expand their experience. Or maybe give them freedom to try something new.
Connecting them now to manufacturers directly, makes the supplied equipment quality finally relevant. Not like spending another half the price for upgrading drone on the front lines.
So this approach allows to actually combine combat and R&D work financing.
It is not possible to do this through some smart people sitting in Kiev, analysing everything, drawing conclusions and making decisions, or even through super smart computer system.
Introduction of "commercial" aspect allows the massive flow of information to go unimpeded. This always happens with "free market system" vs "centralised planning", when properly implemented. Though bad implementation may ruin it all.
If you, or anyone else for that matter, is willing to understand this in greater detail, I would highly recommend reading one famous Austrian, Ludwig von Mises. In particular, his book "Human action", it was unbelievably enlightening for me.
So there were 10 k NK soldiers în Kursk and maybe 1 was captured. Zelenski ensures us that all NK dead soldiers have their faces burnt by ever present Russian soldiers. Sure, Janet.
As about Pokrovsk: the Russians are now West of Pokrovsk. They are encircling the city and ckearing their rear areas. That's because Ukraine has re-inforced Pokrovsk.
The economic theories have no appliance în war. Social theories are actually usefull with what creates cohesion and shared values.
Yes, this was why I was hesitant to respond. There is no willingness to see anything besides pre-framed concepts. And you are not even questioning who has framed them for you. Pokrovsk will not be taken, full stop. Not this year, not next, how about that?
Look, some people are allowing themselves unwarranted predictions and claims for a breakfast, second breakfast, lunch, dinner and supper. Why should I restrict myself?
I believe that the Russians have put their sights on Pokrovsk because it is în Donetsk.
And they will capture it at some point, just like Avdiivka or Vuhledar.
Things are what they are and Ukraine should reduce its losses.
That's a blatant lie. There is big lack of drones, munitions in the frontline, even bigger than in 2023 and nobody in MOD or government cares of it. Everything is going fine for them as it's going worse for ZSU.
Concerning your scenario about Unit A and Unit B expending drones. This is idiocy Ukraine inherited from NATO. Here's essentially the same scenario, but in Afghanistan:
Region A had 100 IED and TIC incidents this month. Region B had 500. Therefore, we're "winning" in Region A and need to send more resources to Region B.
That's literally how they were trying to measure success in Afghanistan and I'm not even exaggerating.
I know, mate. I know... it's the same since Vietnam, actually...
In Vietnam: the measure of success by body counts which were frequently exaggerated. Nevermind that Vietnamese make babies ....
Back in the day I read a claim that in at least one instance the order was given to add the bodies of the dead chickens and pigs in the village to the count - 'they are dead Communist chickens and pigs.'
Just as in a report prepared on war crimes in Gaza an Israeli soldier noted that of 200 Gaza men killed only 10 could be cofirmed as having ties to Hamas, but that the local commander ordered that all be listed as 'terrorists' in the units combat report...
Thanks for the fourth part of what appears to be a neverending (unfortunately) collection. Throughout all parts you have reported the problems of not just the ZSU, but most (if not all) of NATO militaries, Russia,... Are there any contemporary examples of militaries capable of learning lessons from different wars, disseminating them, adapting, and so on? What about examples from bygone times, such as WW1 or WW2? It would be instructive to compare the ZSU with these good examples, and see if there's a pathway to reform.
Thanks Tom for the heads up on Part 4 from EEMC. Still many simple logistical and incompetent decision by the ZSU Unmanned Systems Command on the FPV allocation, is the foreign sourced OWADs/FPV supply from the western countries drone alliance(focus of support) for supporting Ukraine included in the 'decentralized' supply allotment now? Or just the Ukrainian manufactured FPVs supply only?
Looking forward to part 5 and from the looks of it, the series might reach 2 decimal number orders.
Don't know the answer, but I'll check.
Thanks Tom, the NATO countries for drone support for Ukraine, funding and manufacturing support should at least step in if their OWAD/FPV supply for the ZSU is being mismanaged for effective employment in the war because those are still resources which the said countries worked for and also funded.
Eagerly waiting for the Corps reorganization updates, Corps level support units establishment should be also an indicator if the ZSU is serious in implementing the Corps organization.
Have no idea, but my feeling is both sides are regrouping at the moment and there would secrecy around this.
And also strange disappearance/appearance of 12th NG from Toretsk, and then big interview(s) of Biletskiy a month ago are connected to that.
Warning: This comment exceeds 160 characters. Only suitable for people who can read and fully comprehend written text exceeding 160 characters. Also, to all aspiring English grammar teachers reading this, I don't care if my comment structure doesn't suite your reading preferences. This is my comment, so my writing style preferences apply.
As a frontline military practitioner, I spent more than a decade in various conflicts in Africa serving various different masters. Looking back at my career when I was still a bigger idiot than I am now, I can only say that whatever my contributions were in any conflict spanning my whole career, and whatever the extent of personal losses and suffering I sustained during those phases of my life, I can confirm without any doubt that everything I ever did was for nothing other than testing and improving my own skills and experience mainly thanks to the idiocratic processes governing modern day politics. However, there are two major lessons I learnt from my military experience in Africa, namely:
* Lesson 1: When things continuously remain dysfunctional, it is being managed to remain dysfunctional; and
* Lesson 2: In Africa, never a good deed will remain unpunished.
So, looking at the situation in Ukraine, I speak from a perspective being experienced in working with Ukrainians, Russian-Ukrainians (yes boys and girls, this is actually a thing), and Russians. Now, just to be clear, I am still a supporter of the Ukrainian effort, although it does come with caveats, some of it well explained by Tom. That said, in my last comment on one of Tom's articles I stated that sometimes I tend to disagree with some of Tom's commentary. Just to clarify that point, I tend to agree with his military analysis which is mostly exceptionally accurate, but I also tend to disagree with some of his political analysis simply because we have different experiences in terms of translating political strategy into military strategy ('military incompetence' and 'political incompetence' terms snd conditions apply). In relation to the recent articles about Military Incompetence, in my experience it is something that started becoming an issue around the mid-1990's after the [supposed] end of the Cold War, and it was then when it started to become professionalized and institutionalized leading to the great dysfunctions we see now in most Western and Western aligned militaries. However, that is not my point of discussion in this comment. My subject of discussion is my experience with working with Ukraine during my career prior to the Russo-Ukraine War.
My initial experience with Ukrainians in military operations was in central Africa (not CAR, but refering to the region consisting of a cluster of countries still engaged in low-intensity warfare to this day, some still being at war since independence more than 6 decades ago), starting around the turn of the millenium. During those days Ukrainians in Africa were famous for only two things, namely:
* 1: Gun running (with occasional 'humanitarian aid' assistance); and
* 2: Best sources for good unadultered (as in not produced in Africa under questionable conditions containing lethal toxins) alcohol at very affordable prices.
During this same period I also had the fortune of working with Russian airborne forces. To summarize the differences between these two historical Soviet allies as a non-Soviet, the Ukrainians were highly skilled at avoiding direct engagement in any fights, which included the Mi-24 Hind crews who sometimes had to provide CAS, but always failed to arrive at the party on time. The Russians, on the other hand, were always dependable when it came to a fight, why the Russians until now are more favored in Africa simply due to their willingness to get down and dirty when needed to. From a corruption perspective, Russians were less corrupt than the Ukrainians (not saying Russians weren't corrupt, just that they were less corrupt under the same circumstances).
So, fast forward a few years after 2 years of jungle operations in central Africa, I moved on in life to do God's work in support of USF-I in Iraq. Interesting facts about that war was that just a few years prior to the US-led invasion, Ukraine secretly sold modernized air defense systems to a UN sanctioned Iraq against the wishes of the US government [Rep]. Also, prior to the US-led invasion, Russia shared much intelligence about Iraq with the US, even though Russian public media strategy 'opposed' the US-led invasion. Come 2005, the unit I was attached to was hastily deployed to an old [and nearly forgotten] Iraqi Army ammo depot located close to the town of Hatra, also conveniently located about 50 km from an abandoned Iraqi Air Force base located close to the town of Al Qayyarah. The purpose of this mission was to secure the [still stocked] ammo depot, and to take control of the abandoned air base until arrival of reinforcements. Why? Well, in the aftermath of the failed defense of Al Kut during 2004 by the Ukrainian contingent (as integrated under the control of Polish forces in support of MNC-I), someone in USF-I decided it would be a good idea to remove the Ukrainian contingent from frontline operations and rather reassign them to protection tasks in outlying areas. This specific ammo depot containing primarily artillery munitions was one of those locations 'of lesser immediate importance'. Problem is, when the Ukrainian unit commander saw what was inside the ammo shelters, 'For the love of money' by The O'Jays probably played in his mind. Shortly after this site was under Ukrainian control, MNC-I started tracking unauthorized civilian flights landing at the abandoned Iraqi Air Base, later to be confirmed to be part of the infamous Viktor B's global arms exports network. Also, around the same time, MNC-I faced greater frequency of IED attacks involving artillery munitions on the MSR leading to Mosul. So, short story is that the Ukrainians were quite good entrepreneurs selling off the ex Iraqi Army ammunition stocks to whoever was in the market for buying. Needless to say, this drastically fast tracked the Ukrainian withdrawal from Iraq, also creating much disgust and frustration amongst the US Coalition Forces.
So yes, in my opinion based on what I have witnessed and experienced in Ukraine until now, Ukrainian institutional corruption is currently Russia's greatest asset in its war against Ukraine. This is one of the reasons why the US gov [Rep] is not too keen on continuing military aid to Ukraine to avoid US arms becoming the stockpiles for future Viktor B 2.0 alikes from supplying US technology to its enemies, even if most of it is considered outdated compared to current US milspecs.
Bottomline: If a system remains corrupt without any effective change, it is managed to remain corrupt.
A fascinating read, thanks.
There is an interesting book about the Russian/Ukrainian IL-76 pilots in Africa (and elsewhere) during this period called Outlaws Inc
FYI/For Everybody's Info:
Matt Potter, "Outlaws Inc"
https://www.amazon.com/Outlaws-Potter-Matt-Bloomsbury-Hardcover/dp/B00E2ROJP4?crid=HRW9VYR0HKYY&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.L71ZakllQqMsbCo06pIx9laNxzCcb1dcCpDvfUxOw2__1UoXzz58eDvmOM2ZF1uh1-9fB_PRhqD4Rq7BKV8NHWLZS_WWmEMVOgl_8cto4mNStQ19zR_rZIHSHcahimNFeZjJ4qKJBJheOXULa9bGSMDuv7QGeWefZrRACW6p4WD5Yv0u9ZjG3BsXlHmc-MI_rX8k6WQkmP9wZvEb0UjMF28AX8DLH51XthokJBIMCrI.jZ2By_i3yFr6qQcpr_olhmrdhilcWq-fg0TSOz-aFEo&dib_tag=se&keywords=outlaws%2C+inc.&qid=1740680280&sprefix=outlaws%2C+inc.%2Caps%2C203&sr=8-1
Ukraine has made a good leap in improving corruption since 2014. (Although Putin has invested huge money to keep it corrupted.) And that's the reason Putin has attacked it, because if not, Ukrainians would be less corrupt and richer than Russians shortly.
There's no evidence of sell of western arms to US enemies now, so this what you say is BS. Trump is just angry to Zelensky because Zel. (unlike Putin) has refused to fabricate fakes about Biden in 2020. Many "old-way" classic Republicans like Mitch McConnell supports Ukraine. Trump is corrupt himself. Just check some articles how Russian money helped him to avoid bankruptcy. You'll see it in few years, if you let him do what he does.
Just see how corrupt by power are US Rep congressmen and senators - they deny Russia has invaded Ukraine, they deny truth, just to keep their chairs. And it's just the first month Trump's rule.
Not just corrupt, but also cowardly and traitors (IMHO even if not legally so) to the U. S. Constitution.
Some of your points are valid simply because it is not explained in detail. Some subjects are not explained in greater details because its beyond the scope of this limited scope social media commentary. I also have no interest in explaining some things I mentioned simpky because I don't care to expand on it because its irrelevant. The situation in Ukraine is complex, and yes, Russia has always had a big hand to play in maintaining the state of corruption in the system of government of Ukraine as a non-violent means of keeping its military capabilities pacified. It's a common irregular warfare doctrine, same as we see in every single country in this world, and I mean every single one. So yes, no denying your reference to Western corruption simply because that is how the world functions. However, what you do not understand is how politics actually work in terms of true power. What most people don't understand is that true power only exists in the shadows, and you will never see it. The public figures you see on TV has no power. The have power of public narrative influence, yes, but they lack any functional power in terms of government, especially within the systems commonly referred to as the 'great powers'. What most people don't know is that everyone has a boss, and that applies to every single person perceived to be some form of power within the current public information space. Truth is, all the perceived 'powerful' people in the world exist by the grace of someone unknown being more powerful. Understand that, and you'll understand why this world is as f#cked up as it is. We can't change anything. In fact, nobody can.
Regarding your point about the threat of Ukrainian battlefield 'entrepreneurs' trading Western arms, believe what you want. Reality is that with the current levels of desperation that exists in Ukraine there has been quite a bit of behind the scenes 'horse trading' going on via Donetsk and Luhansk into the hands of the largest FDI contributor to these breakaway territories, and that is not referring to Russia. US concerns not explained within the public space are real. As I explained before, Ukraine has already lost the war of motivation of its own human resources required to continue this war for any longer. The best worst solution now is for the war to end, and for Kyiv to accept its current territorial status as its new international borders. The reasons: Much more important than what is perceived to be Ukrainian sovereignty, and too long to write in a social media comment. There is an old saying: You only control what you can protect. What this means for Kyiv is that what remains of Ukraine now is what Ukraine can protect (for now, but who knows for how much longer). The sooner this war ends, the lower the probability of Ukraine losing more territory. That is fact.
Exactly. Best case scenario for all is a Korea 2.0 'frozen conflict' as we see now between North Korea and South Korea. That way everyone wins and 'saves face'. Post Korea War, South Korea was just as corrupt as present day Ukraine. Now they are less corrupt, but with improved living conditions.
Yes but the Korean war stopped more or less at the same frontline it had started.
It was a real stalemate as no side could overcome the other side and everyone was really tired on the western side so short after WW II.
To take a closer look at the very complex global situation at that time would fill more than one book.
So at the first look it seems to be the same situation, but a closer look reveals some major differences.
Why giving up any territories at all - if re-training the army would enable the recovery of at least 50% of what is held by the Russians right now?
I agree with this comment 100%
Perfectly fair. I know plenty of such talk already since September 2022 (i.e. since the offensive that liberated eastern Kharkiv and brought the ZSU across the Oskil River). Already back then, there were 'loud voices' explaining that perhaps the population of the Donbass does not want to be liberated. And warning it would be a big trouble trying to re-integrate the same back into Ukraine. And then others, warning what it would take to rebuild the destroyed cities, towns, villages and hamlets, the majority of which was meanwhile de-populated.
...and then, what about Crimea, the liberation of which is likely to become a particularly massive undertaking?
On the other hand, there is the 'principle' of (what is left) of the 'international law and order', along which no borders can be changed thorugh violence any more. And then the principle of not giving in to bullies: why 'gratifying' Pudding with giving him 20% of Ukraine? And if so, where's the guarantee that's going to satisfy him and he is - or his successors are - going to stop?
Finally, at least according to the Ukrainian releases, over 60% of Ukrainians (still in Ukraine) want a total liberation...
BTW, if you check recent interviews with some of ZSU's brigade-COs, at least one is calculating that a re-training of the entire force wouldn't last more than 6-9 months. Add 2-3 months for expansion of brigades into corpses (i.e. divisions). With other words: at least I haven't heard any estimate into the range of 2 years.
From the very beginning of this conflict I always had the opinion that this war will be a very long walk on a very bitter road. But there is no other choice if Ukraine wants to exist as a sovereign state.
The result will mainly depend on Ukraine itself.
It is just the question of do it or be done.
There are two problems I see with this, namely:
Problem 1: Retraining the ZSU.
The major obstacle to proper reform of the ZSU is the Kyiv political system, and unfortunately political interference controls the ZSU at both the Strategic and Operational levels. It is only the Tactical levels of command & control that are somewhat autonomous from political interference. I have seen what proper political reform looks like when done correctly under conditions of war, especially what can be done (and has to be done) to effectively reform a military organization from top down to adapt to the evolving military situation. However, before a military can be reformed effectively, the government needs to be reformed. This is why nothing is happening in Ukraine because the government refuses to reform itself to be better suited to recapturing territories. Also, the minimum timespan required to reform the military system is 10 years which is the timeline required to mature current combat experienced and competent Field Officers through the Staff Officer ranks to create competent Brigade structures suited and tactically adapted to the current (and future anticipated) conditions of war, and then into the General Officer ranks to create Divisions required to improve Operational level combat efficiency and effectiveness. To achieve all of this, the majority of senior command structures in the current ZSU need to be cleared out of their positions, and unfortunately in the present day loyalty is still valued over competence in the ZSU. Competent commanders are mostly sidelined for being 'problematic' when recommending [demanding] reforms. How do I know this? I just know it. What I also know is that Russia has the same problems, although reform and adaptation is happening at a much more rapid rate than in the ZSU. Last point about retraining challenges in the ZSU is that until now there is still no consensus about the model to which the ZSU needs to be reformed to (which would determine the training requirement). Why? Because nobody can agree about what would be the most suitable structures based on a proper needs assessment. The ZSU still functions on a survivalist model (why tactical units are still micromanagement), and nobody wants to take responsibility for implementing radical changes required fearing total collapse of the already fragile structures. Point is, the retraining and reform of the ZSU required to take back territory from Russia is not going to happen.
Problem 2: The will of the people.
February 2025 is the 11 year anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War. If we look at Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea over this time period we notice that not once have the original Ukrainian populations resisted Russian occupation. Yes, there are some Kyiv sympathizers and collaborators remaining in these territories, but only in extremely minor numbers. What we need to start considering now is that maybe the historical Ukrainian populations still residing in these territories do not want to return back to Kyiv control. Is it so far fetched to think that maybe the populations of these territories choose to be part of Russia instead of Ukraine, why they still choose to rather subject themselves to Russian controlled military conscription instead of defecting to Ukrainian controlled territories? If the populations of the current Russian occupied territories choose to remain under Russian control after 11 years of occupation, is this not what we Western 'democracy' preaching hypocrites would define as exercising democratic choice? I say, if these people still choose (and fight) to remain seperated from Unrsine, then give them what they want. What does Kyiv gain from taking back territories occupied by people who refuses to be controlled by Kyiv, and what measures are Kyiv going to take to suppress dissent? That is why I say the Korea model is the only solution going forward (where hardline opposing ideologies remain separated by hard borders until everyone dies/forgets why they became separated in the first place).
Bottomline: Ukraine needs to halt military operations to limit its national debt. It also needs the large number of human resources dedicated to trying to recapture territory that doesn't wish to be recaptured to rebuild its economy to start generating revenue and increase production to reduce its debt burden which is turning into a greater enemy than Russia could ever be.
What about the predominantly native Russian speakers living in the part of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv? Are they loyal predominantly to Kyiv or would they prefer to live under Russian-dominated governance? E.g., Odesa, Kherson ... other major cities and oblasts with predominantly Russian peoples?
Sorry, but I am doing a bit of guessing here. Not very familiar with the ethnic domination of particular areas comprising the "whole" of Ukraine, Kyiv controlled and Russian controlled. But I am curious!
The Korea model is no way forward. It is just freezing the decision for a later point in time with the much poorer side deciding to solve the situation by military power only, as otherwise they would implode like the USSR did.
The author of the post is biased. Otherwise, he would have also mentioned the well-known facts about Russian corruption, when weapons and ammunition for Chechen fighters were purchased at Russian army warehouses. The Russians, by the way, have never hidden this and even mention it in popular TV series ("Spetsnaz", "Brigada" and others).
This is not true. Iran and North Korea supply Russia with weapons and are not afraid of Russian corruption. So, references to someone's corruption are nothing more than political games of interested parties.
Any evidence for Iranian supplying weapons and ammo to Russia?
Mind: meanwhile, there's more evidence for the ZSU using Iranian-made arms and ammo...
aren't shaheds iranian (even if probably chinese originally)? ruSSians were buying them by thousands not so long ago
Red Sea interceptions.
Maybe I'm biased, maybe I don't care to spend more time explaining and explaining complex subjects leading to more questions than answers and even more explaining which most people will never comprehend anyway.
I should mention that while discussing Ukraine and ZSU?
....so, that you would feel better...?
Thanks for share your experience!
Thanks a lot. Kind of cross-confirming a lots of things I've got to hear (especially about 'Ukrainians in ....').
Out of curiosity... while 'in that part of Africa', did you happen to have run into an ex-USAF gent that used to fly AC-130s (so also during the Desert Storm, back in 1991), and then, few years later, converted to MiG-21s (while contracted by one of local air force)?
Also, there should have been a few Algerians and Mexicans around (have been told so: never managed to find out their names, though).
Re the ex-USAF AC-130 driver turned MIG-21 hotshot, that story sounds as far fetched as Madonna's children. No, I have never heard about this character in any of the places I was deployed spanning across 5 bordering countries. I also cannot think of any use for someone with that claimed experience. I'll explain why. The AC-130 primarily operates in support of SOF, so if this story checks out, he would be experienced in dealing with SOF. The only country where US SOF were deployed in small numbers in that region is Uganda. However, why I think this story is a bit far fetched is because (1) Conversion from AC-130 to Mig 21 is not just a straight forward exercise, and I don't think even if that was to happen that the UPDF AF would give him the required flying hours to truely master that machine effectively; and (2) the use of Mig 21 for CAS in jungle operations is as useful as a one legged man at an ass-kicking contest. For CAS missions in central African jungle operations, helicopters are the most effective, especially when equipped with 30 mm guns (anything smaller than 30 mm is not very effective to penetrate the thick tree canopies which even blocks out GPS signals and SATCOM, also the reason why Russo-Ukraine style UAV operations also offer very limited value in that region of the woods). AC-130, however, that would be considered a game changer, but unfortunately those machines aren't flying there. So, my point is that the operational requirements do not suite the skills and experience of this character. Look, I'm not saying it never happened. There are many people that go to Africa with ideas only to realize that their ideas don't work in Africa. They sometimes end up in local expat oriented bars and talk many stories to impress other expats. There is a reason why Africa is so volatile, and will remain volatile for decades to come. After Mogadishu circa 1993, the US is still very much allergic to getting directly involved in African conflicts [contrary to popular PRC propaganda], simply because it's a totally different beast to what they are used to. That is why the US prefers contracted services and proxy partner nations in Africa for plausible deniability.
The Mexicans in central Africa is an interesting case, and a cause of major concern simply because their operating budgets exceed the combined defense spending of all the nations in that region combined. So, choosing not to disclose their affiliations for reasons I choose not to explain, let me just say that it is the same group that won special mention on the February 20, 2025, USA shitlist as an international terror group, which is also the
same group that basically controls the Amazon basin ('charlie' central). The thing is, Uncle SAM is tightening the noose around the neck of this specific group (and a few others), why they (Mexicans) decided years ago to diversify their production and distribution capacity to the jungles of central Africa following the same modus operandi they maintain in the Amazon. This is one of the reasons why central Africa remains hostile because it is managed to remain hostile. Why? Because they are well aware of the [past] US unwillingness to get directly involved in unfamiliar central African terrain, and they [Mexicans] have better control [through financial means], over the central African politicians. Now, if you knew the details how that specific group of alternative farming Mexicans established themselves in Mexico, you would also understand one of the reasons behind the growing hostility of the current US administration towards the present post-1994 South African government. That, however, is a story for another day.
Thx, Is OK. Africa is huge and you can't know everybody. I've primarily asked because from what you've originally posted, I was not entirely sure where exactly did you serve.
The AC-130-driver in question retired from the USAF and went 'there' as a PMC. Served in the air force of a country (very far) 'down south' (and flew MiG-21s) as of 1997-1999. Flew combat sorties in two wars, too... of course, unofficially.
The Mexicans (and Algerians...and a group of Ukrainians) did serve - as PMCs, too - and (a lot) closer to where you were. 'Just a tad further north' (at least on usual maps of that part of the world), and then in the 2000s.
Like in the case of the USAF-veteran in question, nothing of that had anything to do with official or unofficial politics of the governments in question: they were all PMCs.
Doesn't the impending drive to create corps offer one solution?
Attach less viable brigades to those with a good history of competence, and use the staffs of the better brigades to create corps staffs.
Doubtless there are problems with that, but it would promote competence better than the way it's done now.
Theoretically, yes.
And that's the problem: that's still a theory.
"You cannot manage what you don't measure"
Good one, but it mostly sums up the matter repeated many times.
Take Siemens for example (our majority over 90% supplier). Huge sales surge resulting from the chip crisis. I don't know what they did with the money - paid dividends? Whatever- it wasn't stored for the OBVIOUS sales dip that would follow. Even a local toilet tissue manufacturer understood this. Panic buy due to Covid - clearly people aren't going to poop any more than before. So they prepared for the coming lull. Now, Siemens is laying off thousands and when things pick up again they won't have the manpower / expertise to deal with it.
...the same like with the VW and the KMT, the last year: first pay billions in dividends, then the CEOs are ah so very much surprised, they lack the money they've paid in dividends...
The public listed companies are under some perverse incentives, with the CEOs' pay being tied to the share price rising.
And one way to raise the share price is to give large dividends, making the shares more attractive for the buyers.
Another method is share buy-back (done to excess by Boeing and other companies).
These companies cannot plan beyond the next quarterly report, and if the CEO declares that his company is eg going to invest 50% of the profits into business research and development for the next three years, the shareholders'll crucify him.
Truth.
...and time to change that.
maybe decentralised control of drones is okay in this instance? We know the good drone operators already monitor effectiveness is no need for this to be centralised…high on the smell of your own farts in this one
What's difficult to disentangle, in my opinion, is the extent to which this kind of obviously silly laissez faire approach to the war effort is something indigenously Ukrainian and to what extent it might have been shaped by the need to "chat up" congressional Republicans with myth-making about free markets. It's similar in this regard to the way that Iraq completely went to the dogs under Paul Bremer with the would-be satrap Chalabi and the ideology that, if only Iraq were completely deregulated the invisible hand would sort out reconstruction and state building.
Left wing media has long observed: https://jacobin.com/2024/12/ukraine-late-capitalism-war-russia
Hi Tom. Do you have any information on what weapons the Ukrainian Defense Ministry is purchasing abroad? There is a lot of information in the media about weapons supplies (aid packages) from Sweden, Germany, Poland and other countries. It should be understood that this is military aid financed by the governments of these countries. As for the Ukrainian government, only the allocation of funds for drones and artillery ammunition is mentioned. Against the backdrop of ongoing scandals with corruption in supplies for the army, my question corresponds to the topic of your work.
Got a question. Given the talk about the Corps Reorganization going on, and who was picked to lead it, do you think it's a sign maybe the worm is turning a bit? The people being picked are not Srysky's guys, but seemingly the opposite. It appears to me (and I'm fully ready to hear how I'm wrong if you have info I'm missing) that the Ground Forces Commander is driving this and keeping Srysky out of it. On one hand, this is more proof the system is screwed up because technically it should be Srysky leading this charge (admittedly through subordinates). On the other, it is putting the right guys into the right positions and setting up things to address several major issues and appears to be keeping Srysky's hands out of it. Sure, Ukraine has tons of issues to address, but it seems they are actually making some headway here. Slow learning is better than NO learning.
So Drapatyi is not the answer or even part of the answer ??