The battle is already being decided somewhere else , remember that both the Western and Eastern Roman empires lost the moral reasons for thier existence as dominant cultures and withered politically and socially a couple of centuries before they actually had noticeably declined militarily.
China is an ancient culture and most "experts" commit the ultimate cardinal sin of thinking of it being just another "Russia".
Chinese culture was thousands of years old when Rome was founded and Pleny the Elder was complaining 2000 years ago of the trade deficit with China as bitterly as J.D. Vance did few months ago.
But then changing course mid-journey is unfeasible so lets just double down on sailing toward the wronge direction and enjoy the ride while it lasts
I admit the reference is a bit obscure, but Pliny the elder was also obsessed with the trade deficit with China instead of focusing on the active volcano that eventually erased two Roman cities and him as well , the resemblance was intriguing I must add.
In his Natural History (77–79 AD), Pliny the Elder lamented the financial drain of coin from the Roman economy to purchase this expensive luxury. He remarked that Rome's "womankind" and the purchase of luxury goods from India, Arabia, and the Seres of the Far East cost the empire roughly 100 million sesterces per year, and claimed that journeys were made to the Seres to acquire silk cloth along with pearl diving in the Red Sea.
Despite the claims by Pliny the Elder about the trade imbalance and quantity of Rome's coinage used to purchase silk, Warwick Ball asserts that the Roman purchase of other foreign commodities, particularly spices from India, had a much greater impact on the Roman economy. In 14 AD the Senate issued an edict prohibiting the wearing of silk by men, but it continued to flow unabated into the Roman world
Can not compete with your historical knowledge :-) Just started on the Norwegian civil war, starting after the viking age, and are waiting for season two on my podcast. (stranded round 1150 now) :-)
Well 2 things to add as per me, that is holding China back.
1. China is a very insecure country who dread any image damage if they suffer any substanial losses in War. They still believe in subjugation using threat without fighting war but Japan and Taiwan are immune to this pressure.
2. Russia is a China vassal state now. They will try very hard to humiliate Nato first. Any decisive victory for Nato in Ukraine will be a setback for them.
All in all West has to reindustrialize itself if they are thinking of countering China.
If China ever attacks Taiwan all the US Navy has to do is close the straight of Malacca, and that cuts off like 75% of their oil. Between that and sanctions China will be economically dead in a year.
Lol ..china has a network of pipeline with Russia and kazakhstan. They can easily shift pressure there. US is helpless against china without it's allies. This tarriff saga has just exposed how much US is dependent on China.
Where is the problem in disrupting a small pipeline for a long time? It's not about the current situation, but what will happen when it gets started. I am convinced that the infrastructure will be destroyed in no time.
In addition to this, there is also the problem of overpopulation in China. In a state of war, China will have severe problems getting enough food for its own people. In the next few years, even more older people will rely on social benefits. This will be a difficult task for China and the Communist Party (CCP).
Or, as we've seen with Mao, millions will simply die.
How can China invade Taiwan without destroying it? Do they have already the capacity to land in masses? How to cope against subs and sea drones? I bet Taiwan has by now plenty of the latter...
This is a core war principal for China : to not fire a single bullet but win the war through destabilization
That's what Ukraine should be doing to defeat Russia.
The battle is already being decided somewhere else , remember that both the Western and Eastern Roman empires lost the moral reasons for thier existence as dominant cultures and withered politically and socially a couple of centuries before they actually had noticeably declined militarily.
China is an ancient culture and most "experts" commit the ultimate cardinal sin of thinking of it being just another "Russia".
Chinese culture was thousands of years old when Rome was founded and Pleny the Elder was complaining 2000 years ago of the trade deficit with China as bitterly as J.D. Vance did few months ago.
But then changing course mid-journey is unfeasible so lets just double down on sailing toward the wronge direction and enjoy the ride while it lasts
Good historical comment, but then you put J.D Vance in there to destroy it all :-)
I admit the reference is a bit obscure, but Pliny the elder was also obsessed with the trade deficit with China instead of focusing on the active volcano that eventually erased two Roman cities and him as well , the resemblance was intriguing I must add.
In his Natural History (77–79 AD), Pliny the Elder lamented the financial drain of coin from the Roman economy to purchase this expensive luxury. He remarked that Rome's "womankind" and the purchase of luxury goods from India, Arabia, and the Seres of the Far East cost the empire roughly 100 million sesterces per year, and claimed that journeys were made to the Seres to acquire silk cloth along with pearl diving in the Red Sea.
Despite the claims by Pliny the Elder about the trade imbalance and quantity of Rome's coinage used to purchase silk, Warwick Ball asserts that the Roman purchase of other foreign commodities, particularly spices from India, had a much greater impact on the Roman economy. In 14 AD the Senate issued an edict prohibiting the wearing of silk by men, but it continued to flow unabated into the Roman world
Can not compete with your historical knowledge :-) Just started on the Norwegian civil war, starting after the viking age, and are waiting for season two on my podcast. (stranded round 1150 now) :-)
Well 2 things to add as per me, that is holding China back.
1. China is a very insecure country who dread any image damage if they suffer any substanial losses in War. They still believe in subjugation using threat without fighting war but Japan and Taiwan are immune to this pressure.
2. Russia is a China vassal state now. They will try very hard to humiliate Nato first. Any decisive victory for Nato in Ukraine will be a setback for them.
All in all West has to reindustrialize itself if they are thinking of countering China.
If China ever attacks Taiwan all the US Navy has to do is close the straight of Malacca, and that cuts off like 75% of their oil. Between that and sanctions China will be economically dead in a year.
Lol ..china has a network of pipeline with Russia and kazakhstan. They can easily shift pressure there. US is helpless against china without it's allies. This tarriff saga has just exposed how much US is dependent on China.
Where is the problem in disrupting a small pipeline for a long time? It's not about the current situation, but what will happen when it gets started. I am convinced that the infrastructure will be destroyed in no time.
In addition to this, there is also the problem of overpopulation in China. In a state of war, China will have severe problems getting enough food for its own people. In the next few years, even more older people will rely on social benefits. This will be a difficult task for China and the Communist Party (CCP).
Or, as we've seen with Mao, millions will simply die.
Population is an asset during war ask Ukraine.
I dont doubt that China is doing these preparations and hybrid war. Invasion of Taiwan is another question. But the West needs to be prepared.
I don’t know why Xi is waiting, unless their assessment of American disintegration shows it happening even faster in coming years.
There is a battle of power inside china, and Xi does not have the the dictator power like Putin have in russia. He might be replaced by someone else.
Yes, I keep hearing that, and it is somewhat encouraging that China also has internal struggles.
How can China invade Taiwan without destroying it? Do they have already the capacity to land in masses? How to cope against subs and sea drones? I bet Taiwan has by now plenty of the latter...
And forget one important item, the presence of china pro governments in many not so democratics countries in America or africa