Phase Zero: China’s Hybrid War on the West
Benjamin Cook
Recently, I’ve seen multiple articles discussing how China and the U.S. will fight over Taiwan. Many are based on war games conducted by organizations like RAND or CSIS. These simulations are informative and well thought out—but they all miss a key phase in the coming conflict. A phase that has clearly already begun: the shaping and positioning period.
Among China watchers, there seems to be consensus that the earliest possible date for an attack is next year, with 2027–2028 considered more likely. Where… well, this entire story reminds of Israel and its paranoia about Iranian nuclear weapons, which can be traced back to (at least) the early 1990s.
Unsurprisingly, this consensus is simply not true. The earliest “attacks” have already occurred through shaping and pre-positioning operations.
Let me show you how China is already at war with Taiwan and the West.
We’ll start with 2024 and go through 2027.
2024
● China seeds and amplifies pro-Russian narratives.
● China supports Russia’s war effort.● China sends agents into the West via universities and H-1B visas.
● China pressures media and commercial interests to adopt more pro-China positions.
● China conducts provocative military “training” operations to intimidate and test Western responses.
● China spies on both Russia and Ukraine to improve its warfighting capability.
Hate Subscriptions? Me too! You can support me with a one time contribution to my research at Buy Me a Coffee. https://buymeacoffee.com/researchukraine
2025
● China continues all 2024 actions.
● China seeds and amplifies pro-Chinese messages through influencers—Tucker-esque or Tim Pool-esque figures—under the guise of “America First” or “anti-war” rhetoric.● China funnels millions towards voices that are trying to keep people like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the front of news and media.
● China begins assembling a response attack package inside the U.S. and allied countries. Similar to Ukraine’s operations inside Russia, they use unwitting commercial actors with access to critical infrastructure and strategic assets. As Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb showed, an adversary doesn’t need physical access to launch an effective attack. This includes actions in the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
● China conducts test-run operations from Vancouver into the U.S. to assess border permeability.
● China seeds and amplifies anti-American propaganda in Canada, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines—focusing especially on Japan and the Philippines.
2026
● China continues all previous year’s actions.
● China exploits internal U.S. issues—border policy, race, LGBTQIA rights, etc.—to divide Americans as much as possible.
● It seeds and amplifies radical voices using troll farms, bot farms, and AI tools to create audience capture, nudging moderate influencers toward more extreme positions.
2027
● China mimics Russia’s 2016 tactics to sow chaos in the U.S. elections. It also mimics Putin’s very successful nuclear saber rattling.
● Pro-China voices like Tucker-esque personalities are amplified.
● Radical Chinese apologists are platformed.
● Those advocating for military preparedness are labeled “xenophobes” by the left and “not America First” by the right, both accusing the West of starting WWIII and nuclear armageddon.
● In Japan, China stokes renewed debate over U.S. bases in Okinawa, seeding false stories of abuse and misconduct online, which eventually surface in mainstream discourse.
● Similar tactics are applied to all U.S. allies, turning support for Taiwan’s defense into a polarizing, monetizable political issue. Because it is a “money maker” mainstream media and more and more influencers participate in the “debate” to cash in. It becomes a self sustaining leviathan. An industry unto itself.
2027–2028
● Depending on the U.S. election outcome, China may initiate a full-scale attack on Taiwan:
○ If Trump is in office and a strong successor is likely, they may strike before the end of his term.
○ If a weaker candidate wins, they may strike early in the new administration, exploiting the transition period.
So where are the war games on this hybrid and asymmetrical war?
China would like to take Taiwan without ever actually having to shoot at the West. Russia has laid out a very good plan for freezing politicians and fomenting fear and hatred. China will take this plan and improve on it.
Further Reading. “A Primer On Russian Cognitive Warfare”
Benjamin Cook continues to travel to, often lives in, and works in Ukraine, a connection spanning more than 14 years. He holds an MA in International Security and Conflict Studies from Dublin City University and has consulted with journalists and intelligence professionals on AI in drones, U.S. military technology, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) related to the war in Ukraine. He is co-founder of the nonprofit UAO, working in southern Ukraine. You can find Mr. Cook between Odesa, Ukraine; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tucson, Arizona.
Hate Subscriptions? Me too! You can support me with a one time contribution to my research at Buy Me a Coffee. https://buymeacoffee.com/researchukraine
Mr. Cook’s Substack:
Well 2 things to add as per me, that is holding China back.
1. China is a very insecure country who dread any image damage if they suffer any substanial losses in War. They still believe in subjugation using threat without fighting war but Japan and Taiwan are immune to this pressure.
2. Russia is a China vassal state now. They will try very hard to humiliate Nato first. Any decisive victory for Nato in Ukraine will be a setback for them.
All in all West has to reindustrialize itself if they are thinking of countering China.
This is a core war principal for China : to not fire a single bullet but win the war through destabilization