Hello everybody! The last two weeks, while our glorious politicians and the media were busy distracting us with reports about ‘negotiations’ between Israelis and Palestinians, it was actually so that the tensions between Israel, Iran, and USA were all the time rapidly escalating. The last night, the situation ‘exploded’, literally.
Looks like Israel is planning their own "final solution" in middle east. I suppose the idea is that if Israel attacks Iran enough times then Iran will eventually "overstep" with their retaliation and they can get the USA to destroy them.
The IRGC and its puppets came into being because of relentless and intentional Israeli strikes on the Shi'a population of southern Lebanon, back in the 1970s...
Who says they ever stopped using this scheme of violence against their neighbors and then crying uncle when the neighbors retaliate? They never had a reason to stop. They sure don't have a reason today.
Do you think they'll finally have a reason to stop when 'iran is dealt with properly'?
The issue was that of 'who started'. I've said, 'it wasn't Tehran'. Marmot says that it's IRGC and its puppets - to which I've replied how the IRGC and its puppets came into being: because of intentional Israeli attacks on the Shi'a population of Lebanon.
Now, of course, hardly anybody involved can recall who exactly has started, but that is not changing the facts about who has started (and even less so is that diminishing any of atrocities on civilians).
Yes, it futile to argue who has started back to 19th century. Point is, before Oct 7, 2023, IRCG and it's puppets were shelling north of Israel time from time. So, civilians living there took a shelter and then could continue to live. And Israel retaliated time from time. But since Oct 7, 2023 the attacks increased sharply, so it's unbearable to live there. That's why Israel has attacked those responsible for that. It's not a final solution, they just want to stop the shelling or at least to return it to pre Oct 7, 2023 level.
Note: I am just explaining the reasons of Israel attack. Not assessing if that's a good solution or not, or labeling who is good or bad.
Seeing how USA shot down missiles and drones aimed at Israel, I find it so frustrating that they won’t do the same in ukraine. Seems to me it is possible to patrol much of the country at a low risk to planes and pilots. Leave front line areas to ukraine but nato could secure the areas behind.
At least in western ukraine they must do that. All the cruise missiles 100 km radius (especially the ones entering Polish airspace) must be shot down. If it is flying towards NATO airspace - shoot it down.
They could do this in western, most of central, and even some of eastern ukraine. You can stay quite far from Russia/conflict line and still protect most of the country.
Russia does not want the western part or the central part, it only wants the east with the russian population. The Ukrainians do not want the russian people anyways so it should work out.
And yet they bomb western and central ukraine regularly (I live here and have experienced countless explosions).
I don’t agree with your premise in general. They went for kyiv and got stopped (central ukraine) and Putin still says ukraine shouldn’t exist so it seems he still has his long term goal set on the whole country.
How do you know what Russia wants? First they wanted only Crimea. Then they wanted only Donbass, now they wanted only Odessa , Kharkov and Zapporizha. They want to eliminate Ukraine as a state and then restore USSR.
Nonsense, Russia wants to ruin Ukrainian independence. There is no "Russian population" anywhere in Ukraine, there are regions where part of Ukrainian citizens speak Russian. Ethnic Russians are not "Russian population". It is just the same as to consider ethnic Italians in the USA "Italian population" and to have some claims on the part of New York city.
First of all - yes, they do. They want maximum of what they can take now and more tlwhen they will be able to later. Second, and why should we care what russia wants? If I want only your car it is ok? Are you gining it to me then? And if you do, why should i stop wanting something else of yours?
Ok, so again let's make it more related to the case. First of all - still illegal for you to take someone's elses car. Second - no one ever came close to your car, as no one did anything to russia. No one was trying to annex or attack Kaliningrad, Belgorod, Vladivostok etc.
It is just part of Putin's (so far failed) effort to recreate the Soviet Union, but in a Russian nationalist format. The Baltics and Central Asia will be next.
And if we allow him, it will just encourage Iran, North Korea and China to pursue their expansionist plans.
The same thing happened in the 1930s.
First there was war in Ethiopia, then China, then Spain, then land grabs by Germany, culminating in the conquest of Poland and world war.
Neglect one crack in the dam, and eentually teh whole edifice collapses.
Not the first step, but the last. They could try to think US ships as retaliation or attack some other US base somewhere. Russians do have more options.
They’d do something… but it wouldn’t be a direct attack on USA or any of our military. That would be an huge escalation from something small like shooting down a missile. In fact, we’re already helping ukraine shoot down missiles with patriot system, so it would be more of the same by different methods.
The seven ballistic missiles that got through could have had multiple warheads each. So more than seven explosions for sure. Also much of what gets shot down still falls and explodes to some degree still possibly causing great damage.
I suppose the main distinction between the fascistic IRGC and the fascistic people on the other side is the IRGC don't have a large DC lobbying operation. This would, if Israel or the US had done it in response to a similar provocation, probably be called a "calibrated strike" wouldn't it.
The National Iranian American Council is a NGO based in Washington, D.C. NIAC Action PAC is its political action committee and was formed in 2015.
It is widely viewed as the de-facto "Iran Lobby" due to its history of lobbying for stances on behalf of, and aligned with, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
AIPAC influence is overrated often (you know that old story how Jewish rule the world is still not dead.) The real big weight in influence in US are American evangelicals and some fanatic part of them support ultra-right Israelis for obscure religious reasons, e.g. see film Til Kingdom Come.
And these guys support Trump and are behind Capitol attack in 2021. So, imagine what may happen in the Near East if Trump wins.
The fact such a thing exists doesn't mean anything. I mean, c'mon, you cannot possibly compare the reach and influence of this "Iranian lobby" to that of AIPAC. But maybe I missed all those times presidential candidates spoke at NIAC. Gonna go look up the videos of, say, Hillary Clinton or Trump speaking at the National Iranian American Council where they assure the audience that Iran is America's greatest ally and they will keep sending them guns and money forever and ever amen.
Not so. You've got nutters on both sides. Iran has a goal of abolishing Israel as a state in the same way that Israel has a goal of expanding from the Nile to the Euphrates, i.e., some hardliners say that.
Israel too has a clear agenda of pursuing regime change in Iran and abolishing it as the state currently constituted. And the Iranians have experienced foreign regime change on themselves and their neighbours within living memory.
I think most of the Western world would like to see regime change in Iran. Not necessarily non religious but at least a moderate theocracy that is truly in control of all factions
" as if it was Tehran who started". No, it was not started by Tehran. It was started by Tehrans supported Hamas. Should have finished with Izraels respons NOT involving leveling the Gaza and killing so much civilians of course. But Tehran kinda did start it, willingly or not.
Hamas came into being through Israel supporting Islamist Palestinians to counter the secular Fatah and PLO. Hamas flourished for two decades thanks to extensive and substantial Israeli political and financial support, too.
The IRGC was created with help of such predecessors of the Hezbollah like Murabiton, in southern Lebanon of the second half of the 1970s - and Murabiton and similar Shi'a militias came into being in reaction to relentless and intentional Israeli atrocities against the Shi'a population of southern Lebanon of the same period.
(Heck... it was already the Shah of Iran who began sending religious experts from Qom to Lebanon, to help the Shi'a there - and that at the same time he was entering cooperation with Israel to develop nukes and ballistic missiles....)
I am not trying to get to the bottom of Izraeli and Palestinian conflict (I don't think you are either with the "not Tehran comment"). My point: this epiaode has started not from "consulate" bombing, but from Hamas atack in October. And I agree with the view, that it was done becouse Iran did not like a deal between saudis and izraelis. No proof here of course. So it was started either by Hamas, or by Tehran instigating Hamas, not Izraelis. And again - could it have been finished by izraelis acting more rationally - yes. But that is rarelly the case...
Tom, while I hugely respect your Ukrainian commentary, I cannot believe you are taking Armchair Warlord bullshit at face value when it comes to Israel, knowing full well he is a desperate Russian troll., pushing any kind of misinformation. Furthermore, those videos show zero proof any airbase was hit in Israel and any damage was done
Is OK. Ignore everything I've written above because of one link. The IRGC didn't hit anything at all in Israel: 99% of rockets were shot down. Fine with me.
It seems to me the Iranians are reluctant to get into open conflict with Israel while the Israelis definitively want that big regional war.
In any case this seems to me like a strategic catastrophe for Ukraine. With the Iranians capable to launched hundreds UAV and missiles at once, the Americans will want to dedicate all of their air defence capabilities & production to Israel. Maybe even lobby the Europeans to do the same.
Edit : I forgot a question. Does Israel has the capacity to strike directly on Iranian soil on its own ? Or can it do so only in a dual Israeli - US operation ?
IMO Iran and Russia are massively producing missiles; NK and probably China contributed as well, so we could see this kind of attacks quite often. While we think WW3 has not started yet, for those countries it is already ongoing for some time.
Nope, Iran is not providing ballistic missiles to Russia. Is a complex story but, in essence:
- IRGC wanted a strategic alliance with Russia, but Putin does not want this,
- thus the IRGC entered a strategic alliance with the PRC instead
- Putin then started buying Shaheds and other stuff, but
- IRGC is not going to sell ballistic missiles to Russia as long as Putin wouldn't let the IRIAF get all the documentation and specifications necessary to not only maintain, but actually manufacture Su-35s in Iran.
This article said the UK Defense Secretary "signalled" that Iran delivered ballistic missiles to Russia. In the article, he was asked if he had information on Iran's reported delivery of ballistic missiles and he said, "I do".
The Reuters article said 400 Iranian missiles were to be sent and shipments began in January, some by plane and some by ship. The most compelling evidence that this didn't happen is that there has been no evidence that Russia fired any Iranian ballistic missiles and the G7 is still warning them against sending any. North Korea only sent 40 and when they were used it was announced right away.
Bibi definetly hopes for escalation. It is only war that saves him as pirime minister now. Unfortunately he is not nutters, just totally amoralsk, and allied with Even more amoral people.
So let me get this straight - if needed, USAF and RAF can be directly involved in the defense of a non-NATO county? They can use interceptors and SAMs (obviously operated by their personnel) to shoot down enemy missiles and UAVs? Like won't this cause tension, escalation and lead to WW3 against a nuclear country? Won't ayatollah's face be in need of saving? What about oil prices after all?
Yes, of course. Same in the case of Taiwan. NATO is only one of the American interests. Only Europe is a prisoner of NATO. And Europe is not a priority for the Americans now.
I think Johnson was already looking for a way to bring some form of the aid bill up for a vote while minimizing the political fallout from the MAGA faction. Given the history of compromise within the Freedom Caucus, I don't think he can avoid the fallout.
Thank you so very much. The Netanyahu governments and the actif support of this horrible man by the West have led Israel into a terrible situation with its neighbours. And Netanyahu's actif support of Putin always showed what kind of criminal he is.
Yes, Iran do not want to escalate it, USA do not wan to escalate it, maybe Netanjahu would like to escalate, but good of Israelis not, Iran and Israel are thousand km away, and so my opinion is, that's not going to be so hot. Bad part is, that USA would send more Patriots missiles to Israel and not Ukraine, the oil price would rise, so Russia would earn more.
So Iran launch 100+ ballistics missiles, not counting drones . And 3rd wave of this strike arrive mostly unopposed from SAM's. And yet dozens of unintercepted missiles did not cause enough damage to some of it become publicly known? When in Ukraine or Russia someone hit airbase or any facility of importance next day horde of people scrutinize commercial satelite images to every pixel, some images inevitably leak to media etc. It should be hell a lot of destruction in multiple places.I don't get it.
No, it wouldn't be, unless Iran purchases them. If CNN purchases them I don't see how "supporting terrorism" would be even relevant. I'd ask if you can cite some authorities to support your position, but it's pretty obvious it's just bullshit.
"When in Ukraine or Russia someone hit airbase or any facility of importance next day horde of people scrutinize commercial satelite images to every pixel, some images inevitably leak to media etc."
At this point you should have noted most of English OSINT-ers are ridiculously partial and refuse to cover Israel out of sympathy/alignment to Israel's war of conquest.
This is the reason why they are always curiously silent on Israel countless crimes. Including those who usually cover Israeli air strikes in Syria.
Guess i need a little patience to know what they achieved then. And maybe israelis better in opsec. If let's say 5 cruise missiles hit something around 50 km of my city. In the next day every stray dog in the city would know where and what without satelites or osinters.
Exactly. But this is in our world, it does not apply to autocratic states. See Russia - based on your way of thinking we should know what happens there in the next day, yet we don't, because common people are afraid to speak the truth. Are 90% of the Russians with Putin, as resulted in the elections? I bet they don't. Israel is also a special case - common people there are trained to keep their mouth shut.
It's easy: from the standpoint of Israel - and this is supported by all of the Western media - the IRGC 'can't', and 'never has' targeted, nor hit anything of military value in Israel.
IRGC is 'terrorist', thus they either miss or can only harm civilians... 🙄
Western media supporting Israel? Wow... BBC don't even call Hamas terrorists (or did not when this last part started). NYT was the one with fake news how Izrael bombed the hospital and killed 500 civilians?
That secret message via Oman seems unlikely to me, why would Iran do it secretly? Making PR for USA as peacemakers? If Iran would think it seriously, they would say it in open, gaining PR as "peacemakers" instead of as terrorist and undermining Netanjahu domestic support. Or, it was just a fake bubble, never meant seriously, so Iran could attack and undermine Netanjahu domestic support, too.
It wasn't 'secret'. It was sent via Oman because - as mentioned - USA and IRI do not maintain diplomatic relations. Arguably, the USA usually use Switzerland as its representative in Iran, but this doesn't mean that the Iranians must use Switzerland too. They're using Oman instead.
Binden’s weak administration caused this situation to get out of control, including october 7, Iran situation and ultimately the next steps. However, if Iran didnt orchestrate the October 7 this situation would not be here today, nonmatter how much younhate Zionists. So basically - eff Iran. If US will ve pulled into it, Iran will be no more, and so is Israel. As for Ukrain, where i was born and raised in USSR…. The best they can hope for is peace treaty. If they had an independent gov this would already been done. But they are puppets, so they will continue bleed their people where more than half dont want tonfight period. Zelensky is hugely unpopular there and keep falling down. I would not be surprised if he will be toppled at some point, after russia bleeds Ukraine for another year or so. And with massive human and military resources and lack of care for their own people russia definitely can and will bleed ukraine.
I understand. You are one of those considering that the war in Ukraine is the fault of the "puppet government" and the best thing to do is give land to Russia.
War is always failed diplomacy. US has been consistently failing in the east europe since the fall of USSR. Greed vs long term strategy, lack of focus, lack or moral compass … When USSR fell apart US had a real chance to build close relationship with Russia. After all, the fall of USSR and the Eastern block was a result of a long fought Cold War. When WW2 was over US implemented a Marshall plan to all of the Europe, even USSR. This time however there was no plan, no direction, no vision. Surely the fall of USSR took US by surprise, but then again who fights a war with no plan on winning AND what to do after you win? So with that, US led by the Bush oil thieves family decided to turn Russia and the satellite states into what US had done around the world - another Banana Republic. But instead of installing a puppet president they offered to dump a ton of money into oil and gas as well as metals and other natural resources explorations and extractions. This created an oligarchy class in Russia and other states. At first all seemed to go well, as it always does except Russia is not some African or South American shit hole country and certain aspirations remained in place. So what did the US do? As expected, dismissed it, belittled it, laughed at it. Russia became a clown state, a laughing stock for the Europeans and the US. How long do you think that would last? And then, when Russia got on the isolationism and nationalism rails the US and Europe vilified it and marked it as a threat to Freedom and Democracy…. Although business never stopped. How convenient…
So I blame US and Europe for where we are today. We, the west, are very good at creating situations at which we then HAVE TO have a war. Results of WW1, results of brainless post WW2 middle eastern approach, results of Cold War… Only blind cannot see it or those with ulterior motives.
And as for Ukraine - no, it’s not the puppet government’s fault. Zelensky had no choice or chance. He hadn’t had any real power nor does he have any today. He is a poster kid of the Maidan revolution, a US led overthrow of the power in Ukraine, a massive gamble that depending where you are and where your interests lay either paid off or not. Ultimately this will be a failure for US and Ukrainian people.
The US will pull out (think ofIraq) pretend like we did what we had to do and announce “Mission completed”. For Ukraine it will be a disaster, massive loss of territories, massive loss of life, continual threat from Russia and likely another war in the next decade with a country many times larger in terms of human resources, economy and military potential. Like I said, a huge diplomacy failure.
TL;DR. Apparently your head is only full with USA-USSR friendship. FYI, there are other nations, too, and these are trying to pursue their own interests, in all this craziness. Their goal in life is not USA or USSR interests or friendship. By any chance, are you living in the USA now and vote for Trump?
Apparently you know extremely little of any history and unable to think independently of media narratives. Also, you exhibit little of contextual understanding of what goes on in eastern europe and ex soviet states but very good at hanging labels on people. By chance, yes, i am a US citizen since early 90s and my vote is given to those that closely representing my way of thinking, regardless of the party. With that, i am fairly certain you are a ONE party man and robotically vote as the TV tells you. As to your FYI - laughable commentary when it comes to Ukraine and Russia. Both were For Sale and both dreamed of being a dungeon girl to US. The only thing - US bid on the wrong one, or rather wanted both but didnt know how so ended up with an uglier girl.
Apparently I don't know anything, but I was exactly right about were you are and whom do you vote for, just from two comments :))) Only this, and contradicts your narrative. I am quite clever, thank you! Do not worry about my knowledge of history. I am in Romania and well informed.
I see you are a big “expert” in history? I was also born in Ukraine during the Soviet era. But unlike you, I didn’t run away in search of a warm place, because I have a Homeland. Reading your nonsense is a waste of time. People like you know better than anyone what is happening in Ukraine, what the Maidan was like and who is leading Zelensky. Don’t embarrass yourself and don’t write all sorts of nonsense here about a country to which you now have no connection and no idea. Ukrainians defend their nation. And we have little choice - either die (become slaves) or, at the cost of huge losses, repel the attack of creatures who for some reason call themselves people.
Parrot narratives of Russian propaganda. One who calls himself "we, the West" has only a huge ego and a xenophobic view concerning "non-Western" part of the world.
Why is the Russian perspective always that someone else cheated it of greatness and that it will become a great nation again? This is nonsense. Russia has always been a dictatorship and slave state. Ukraine wants to be something else and the dictatorship in Russia objects to upsetting the Apple cart.
Looks like Israel is planning their own "final solution" in middle east. I suppose the idea is that if Israel attacks Iran enough times then Iran will eventually "overstep" with their retaliation and they can get the USA to destroy them.
IRCG and it's puppets are attacking Israel for months already.
The IRGC and its puppets came into being because of relentless and intentional Israeli strikes on the Shi'a population of southern Lebanon, back in the 1970s...
I don't know if this sounds like a lame excuse just to me, but 1970s were 50 years ago, where even most current Iranian generals were still babies.
Anyway, hopefully this will help us getting rid of infantile Biden and get someone who'd deal with Iran properly.
Who says they ever stopped using this scheme of violence against their neighbors and then crying uncle when the neighbors retaliate? They never had a reason to stop. They sure don't have a reason today.
Do you think they'll finally have a reason to stop when 'iran is dealt with properly'?
I highly doubt it.
The issue was that of 'who started'. I've said, 'it wasn't Tehran'. Marmot says that it's IRGC and its puppets - to which I've replied how the IRGC and its puppets came into being: because of intentional Israeli attacks on the Shi'a population of Lebanon.
Now, of course, hardly anybody involved can recall who exactly has started, but that is not changing the facts about who has started (and even less so is that diminishing any of atrocities on civilians).
Yes, it futile to argue who has started back to 19th century. Point is, before Oct 7, 2023, IRCG and it's puppets were shelling north of Israel time from time. So, civilians living there took a shelter and then could continue to live. And Israel retaliated time from time. But since Oct 7, 2023 the attacks increased sharply, so it's unbearable to live there. That's why Israel has attacked those responsible for that. It's not a final solution, they just want to stop the shelling or at least to return it to pre Oct 7, 2023 level.
Note: I am just explaining the reasons of Israel attack. Not assessing if that's a good solution or not, or labeling who is good or bad.
Seeing how USA shot down missiles and drones aimed at Israel, I find it so frustrating that they won’t do the same in ukraine. Seems to me it is possible to patrol much of the country at a low risk to planes and pilots. Leave front line areas to ukraine but nato could secure the areas behind.
At least in western ukraine they must do that. All the cruise missiles 100 km radius (especially the ones entering Polish airspace) must be shot down. If it is flying towards NATO airspace - shoot it down.
They could do this in western, most of central, and even some of eastern ukraine. You can stay quite far from Russia/conflict line and still protect most of the country.
Russia does not want the western part or the central part, it only wants the east with the russian population. The Ukrainians do not want the russian people anyways so it should work out.
And yet they bomb western and central ukraine regularly (I live here and have experienced countless explosions).
I don’t agree with your premise in general. They went for kyiv and got stopped (central ukraine) and Putin still says ukraine shouldn’t exist so it seems he still has his long term goal set on the whole country.
How do you know what Russia wants? First they wanted only Crimea. Then they wanted only Donbass, now they wanted only Odessa , Kharkov and Zapporizha. They want to eliminate Ukraine as a state and then restore USSR.
Nonsense, Russia wants to ruin Ukrainian independence. There is no "Russian population" anywhere in Ukraine, there are regions where part of Ukrainian citizens speak Russian. Ethnic Russians are not "Russian population". It is just the same as to consider ethnic Italians in the USA "Italian population" and to have some claims on the part of New York city.
First of all - yes, they do. They want maximum of what they can take now and more tlwhen they will be able to later. Second, and why should we care what russia wants? If I want only your car it is ok? Are you gining it to me then? And if you do, why should i stop wanting something else of yours?
Well, If you had stopped keying my car and slicing my wheels I would not have wanted your car.
Ok, so again let's make it more related to the case. First of all - still illegal for you to take someone's elses car. Second - no one ever came close to your car, as no one did anything to russia. No one was trying to annex or attack Kaliningrad, Belgorod, Vladivostok etc.
This has nothing to do with ethnicity.
It is just part of Putin's (so far failed) effort to recreate the Soviet Union, but in a Russian nationalist format. The Baltics and Central Asia will be next.
And if we allow him, it will just encourage Iran, North Korea and China to pursue their expansionist plans.
The same thing happened in the 1930s.
First there was war in Ethiopia, then China, then Spain, then land grabs by Germany, culminating in the conquest of Poland and world war.
Neglect one crack in the dam, and eentually teh whole edifice collapses.
Spot on, but unfortunately we're paralyzed by our collective selfishness and ignorance.
Well, Iran has no nukes that could reach the US yet and Ukrainians in the US are donating to little looks like.
They could reach not only the mass of US bases in the Middle East, but even Diego Garcia.
....at least the latter was the 'primary objective' for the Iranian missile R+D about 10 years ago...
Definitely that would be an issue, but not on the same large scale as the Russians could cause problems.
You really think Russia is going to Nuke the USA because they shot down some drones and cruise missiles? No, they’re not going to do that…
Not the first step, but the last. They could try to think US ships as retaliation or attack some other US base somewhere. Russians do have more options.
They’d do something… but it wouldn’t be a direct attack on USA or any of our military. That would be an huge escalation from something small like shooting down a missile. In fact, we’re already helping ukraine shoot down missiles with patriot system, so it would be more of the same by different methods.
Many thanks, exactly the transparent report, which some depth, that I was hoping for.
Hope you have a relaxing Sunday, nevertheless!
The numbers are already known. The attack involved 185 drones (185 shot down), 110 ballistic missiles (103 shot down), and 36 cruise missiles (36 shot down).
So there should be only 7 videos with explotions in Izrael? I think there are more
Sure, there are multiple videos from different angles.
And even of places hundreds of km apart
The seven ballistic missiles that got through could have had multiple warheads each. So more than seven explosions for sure. Also much of what gets shot down still falls and explodes to some degree still possibly causing great damage.
Yup, according to official Israel:
- 185 drones
- 36 cruise missiles
- 110 IRBMs
= total: 331 (fired from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen).
103 out of 110 is a very high success rate, do you hvae a source for this?
IDF spokesman.
I suppose the main distinction between the fascistic IRGC and the fascistic people on the other side is the IRGC don't have a large DC lobbying operation. This would, if Israel or the US had done it in response to a similar provocation, probably be called a "calibrated strike" wouldn't it.
The National Iranian American Council is a NGO based in Washington, D.C. NIAC Action PAC is its political action committee and was formed in 2015.
It is widely viewed as the de-facto "Iran Lobby" due to its history of lobbying for stances on behalf of, and aligned with, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
How influential is the NIAC in comparison to - just for example - the AIPAC?
NIAC beats AIPAC
Underdog Iranian Americans knock out war resolution in U.S. Congress
https://iranian.com/main/2008/niac-beats-aipac.html
Probaly as relaible as your IDF spokesperson
Hm... one case from 2008... not sure that's illustrative for the current situation.
AIPAC influence is overrated often (you know that old story how Jewish rule the world is still not dead.) The real big weight in influence in US are American evangelicals and some fanatic part of them support ultra-right Israelis for obscure religious reasons, e.g. see film Til Kingdom Come.
And these guys support Trump and are behind Capitol attack in 2021. So, imagine what may happen in the Near East if Trump wins.
The fact such a thing exists doesn't mean anything. I mean, c'mon, you cannot possibly compare the reach and influence of this "Iranian lobby" to that of AIPAC. But maybe I missed all those times presidential candidates spoke at NIAC. Gonna go look up the videos of, say, Hillary Clinton or Trump speaking at the National Iranian American Council where they assure the audience that Iran is America's greatest ally and they will keep sending them guns and money forever and ever amen.
Actually the main difference is that the Iranian regime has a stated goal of annihilating Israel. Israel has no goal of annihilating Persia.
Israel is practicing actual genocide unlike Iran
Not so. You've got nutters on both sides. Iran has a goal of abolishing Israel as a state in the same way that Israel has a goal of expanding from the Nile to the Euphrates, i.e., some hardliners say that.
Israel too has a clear agenda of pursuing regime change in Iran and abolishing it as the state currently constituted. And the Iranians have experienced foreign regime change on themselves and their neighbours within living memory.
I think most of the Western world would like to see regime change in Iran. Not necessarily non religious but at least a moderate theocracy that is truly in control of all factions
IDF spokesperson reminds me Konashenkov. VS RF has intercepted and struck all targets too.
" as if it was Tehran who started". No, it was not started by Tehran. It was started by Tehrans supported Hamas. Should have finished with Izraels respons NOT involving leveling the Gaza and killing so much civilians of course. But Tehran kinda did start it, willingly or not.
Hamas came into being through Israel supporting Islamist Palestinians to counter the secular Fatah and PLO. Hamas flourished for two decades thanks to extensive and substantial Israeli political and financial support, too.
The IRGC was created with help of such predecessors of the Hezbollah like Murabiton, in southern Lebanon of the second half of the 1970s - and Murabiton and similar Shi'a militias came into being in reaction to relentless and intentional Israeli atrocities against the Shi'a population of southern Lebanon of the same period.
(Heck... it was already the Shah of Iran who began sending religious experts from Qom to Lebanon, to help the Shi'a there - and that at the same time he was entering cooperation with Israel to develop nukes and ballistic missiles....)
Thus, sorry: Tehran didn't start it.
I am not trying to get to the bottom of Izraeli and Palestinian conflict (I don't think you are either with the "not Tehran comment"). My point: this epiaode has started not from "consulate" bombing, but from Hamas atack in October. And I agree with the view, that it was done becouse Iran did not like a deal between saudis and izraelis. No proof here of course. So it was started either by Hamas, or by Tehran instigating Hamas, not Izraelis. And again - could it have been finished by izraelis acting more rationally - yes. But that is rarelly the case...
Tom, while I hugely respect your Ukrainian commentary, I cannot believe you are taking Armchair Warlord bullshit at face value when it comes to Israel, knowing full well he is a desperate Russian troll., pushing any kind of misinformation. Furthermore, those videos show zero proof any airbase was hit in Israel and any damage was done
Is OK. Ignore everything I've written above because of one link. The IRGC didn't hit anything at all in Israel: 99% of rockets were shot down. Fine with me.
It seems to me the Iranians are reluctant to get into open conflict with Israel while the Israelis definitively want that big regional war.
In any case this seems to me like a strategic catastrophe for Ukraine. With the Iranians capable to launched hundreds UAV and missiles at once, the Americans will want to dedicate all of their air defence capabilities & production to Israel. Maybe even lobby the Europeans to do the same.
Edit : I forgot a question. Does Israel has the capacity to strike directly on Iranian soil on its own ? Or can it do so only in a dual Israeli - US operation ?
Good part is, that the Iran would be more reluctant to provide ballistic missiles to Russia.
IMO Iran and Russia are massively producing missiles; NK and probably China contributed as well, so we could see this kind of attacks quite often. While we think WW3 has not started yet, for those countries it is already ongoing for some time.
Yes, some says, WW3 in not going to be a massive war like WW1 or WW2, but many regional conflicts of various intensity instead.
Nope, Iran is not providing ballistic missiles to Russia. Is a complex story but, in essence:
- IRGC wanted a strategic alliance with Russia, but Putin does not want this,
- thus the IRGC entered a strategic alliance with the PRC instead
- Putin then started buying Shaheds and other stuff, but
- IRGC is not going to sell ballistic missiles to Russia as long as Putin wouldn't let the IRIAF get all the documentation and specifications necessary to not only maintain, but actually manufacture Su-35s in Iran.
Well, Reuters said they did.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/
Then it's on Reuters to show evidence for what they say.
Reurters said they did and they have been reliable in the past. But:
Budanov immediately said that didn't happen back in February.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/25/7443618/
This article said the UK Defense Secretary "signalled" that Iran delivered ballistic missiles to Russia. In the article, he was asked if he had information on Iran's reported delivery of ballistic missiles and he said, "I do".
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-supplying-russia-with-ballistic-missiles-shows-they-are-bad-influence-in-europe-grant-shapps-signals-13087514
This March 15 article says that the G7 is concerned about Iran considering sending ballistic missiles to Russia and threatens consequences if they do.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/g7-iran-russia-missile-warning/index.html
The Reuters article said 400 Iranian missiles were to be sent and shipments began in January, some by plane and some by ship. The most compelling evidence that this didn't happen is that there has been no evidence that Russia fired any Iranian ballistic missiles and the G7 is still warning them against sending any. North Korea only sent 40 and when they were used it was announced right away.
What kind of relevance would you say Su-35 has for Iran right now? Would they make much difference, if, say, the IAF was tasked to knock out Bushehr?
About Israelis I am not that sure. About Netanyahu I am a 100% certain.
Bibi definetly hopes for escalation. It is only war that saves him as pirime minister now. Unfortunately he is not nutters, just totally amoralsk, and allied with Even more amoral people.
So let me get this straight - if needed, USAF and RAF can be directly involved in the defense of a non-NATO county? They can use interceptors and SAMs (obviously operated by their personnel) to shoot down enemy missiles and UAVs? Like won't this cause tension, escalation and lead to WW3 against a nuclear country? Won't ayatollah's face be in need of saving? What about oil prices after all?
Yes, of course. Same in the case of Taiwan. NATO is only one of the American interests. Only Europe is a prisoner of NATO. And Europe is not a priority for the Americans now.
Yup. Of course they can. After all, ExxonMobile and Chevron have no business ties to Iran.
....they do have them to Putin, though, just like Netanyahu is one of his closest buddies.
....and each of them - ExxonMobile and Chevron - makes more billions a year than Ukraine.
Are these two companies the biggest players in the oligarchy with respect to hindering Ukraine's defense?
Perhaps the biggest single corporations - and definitely two with close ties to Putin.
There are lots of private interests, too.
This might help push Johnson to launch the aid bill for Ukraine and Israel.
Not sure about that. The Congress could easily find a way to vote an Israel-only bill.
I think Johnson was already looking for a way to bring some form of the aid bill up for a vote while minimizing the political fallout from the MAGA faction. Given the history of compromise within the Freedom Caucus, I don't think he can avoid the fallout.
I like your phrase "the history of compromise..." You nailed his problem!
Thank you so very much. The Netanyahu governments and the actif support of this horrible man by the West have led Israel into a terrible situation with its neighbours. And Netanyahu's actif support of Putin always showed what kind of criminal he is.
Yes, Iran do not want to escalate it, USA do not wan to escalate it, maybe Netanjahu would like to escalate, but good of Israelis not, Iran and Israel are thousand km away, and so my opinion is, that's not going to be so hot. Bad part is, that USA would send more Patriots missiles to Israel and not Ukraine, the oil price would rise, so Russia would earn more.
So Iran launch 100+ ballistics missiles, not counting drones . And 3rd wave of this strike arrive mostly unopposed from SAM's. And yet dozens of unintercepted missiles did not cause enough damage to some of it become publicly known? When in Ukraine or Russia someone hit airbase or any facility of importance next day horde of people scrutinize commercial satelite images to every pixel, some images inevitably leak to media etc. It should be hell a lot of destruction in multiple places.I don't get it.
I think we will see this satellite images lately, in one or two days. Commercial satellites cannot send pictures instantly.
You really expect MAXAR and similar instances to start publishing sat photos of damage on (US-constructed-) military facilities in Israel?
That would be 'support of terrorism'...
No, it wouldn't be, unless Iran purchases them. If CNN purchases them I don't see how "supporting terrorism" would be even relevant. I'd ask if you can cite some authorities to support your position, but it's pretty obvious it's just bullshit.
OK. Then go on and buy sat photos of Nevatim and Ramon as of this morning.
BTW, what authorities should I quote for what of my positions?
https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1779499412189786326
and yet there are already pictures. Waiting to see if they sensor the high res ones
Destruction, not distraction?
Cmon bruh. I only use English like once a week in comments somewhere. Have mercy on me. (edited ty)
No worries. I understood, but I wrote for clarification. How do you edit the comments, because I didn't find a way?
Bottom right corner of comment. Three dots. To the right of like/reply
My only options on the 3 dots are share link, hide comment and delete comment. No edit, I don't know why :((
Try desktop or web version on the phone. My only guess
"When in Ukraine or Russia someone hit airbase or any facility of importance next day horde of people scrutinize commercial satelite images to every pixel, some images inevitably leak to media etc."
At this point you should have noted most of English OSINT-ers are ridiculously partial and refuse to cover Israel out of sympathy/alignment to Israel's war of conquest.
This is the reason why they are always curiously silent on Israel countless crimes. Including those who usually cover Israeli air strikes in Syria.
Guess i need a little patience to know what they achieved then. And maybe israelis better in opsec. If let's say 5 cruise missiles hit something around 50 km of my city. In the next day every stray dog in the city would know where and what without satelites or osinters.
Exactly. But this is in our world, it does not apply to autocratic states. See Russia - based on your way of thinking we should know what happens there in the next day, yet we don't, because common people are afraid to speak the truth. Are 90% of the Russians with Putin, as resulted in the elections? I bet they don't. Israel is also a special case - common people there are trained to keep their mouth shut.
So if they comment on Ukraine, they MUST comment on Israel? Msut theybdo that for all the conflicts in Africa too? Or are YOU not interested in those?
It's easy: from the standpoint of Israel - and this is supported by all of the Western media - the IRGC 'can't', and 'never has' targeted, nor hit anything of military value in Israel.
IRGC is 'terrorist', thus they either miss or can only harm civilians... 🙄
They hit civilians that were on the base redressing into civilian clothes or so...
Western media supporting Israel? Wow... BBC don't even call Hamas terrorists (or did not when this last part started). NYT was the one with fake news how Izrael bombed the hospital and killed 500 civilians?
That happened.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/israelpalestine-20-october-2023
That secret message via Oman seems unlikely to me, why would Iran do it secretly? Making PR for USA as peacemakers? If Iran would think it seriously, they would say it in open, gaining PR as "peacemakers" instead of as terrorist and undermining Netanjahu domestic support. Or, it was just a fake bubble, never meant seriously, so Iran could attack and undermine Netanjahu domestic support, too.
It wasn't 'secret'. It was sent via Oman because - as mentioned - USA and IRI do not maintain diplomatic relations. Arguably, the USA usually use Switzerland as its representative in Iran, but this doesn't mean that the Iranians must use Switzerland too. They're using Oman instead.
Binden’s weak administration caused this situation to get out of control, including october 7, Iran situation and ultimately the next steps. However, if Iran didnt orchestrate the October 7 this situation would not be here today, nonmatter how much younhate Zionists. So basically - eff Iran. If US will ve pulled into it, Iran will be no more, and so is Israel. As for Ukrain, where i was born and raised in USSR…. The best they can hope for is peace treaty. If they had an independent gov this would already been done. But they are puppets, so they will continue bleed their people where more than half dont want tonfight period. Zelensky is hugely unpopular there and keep falling down. I would not be surprised if he will be toppled at some point, after russia bleeds Ukraine for another year or so. And with massive human and military resources and lack of care for their own people russia definitely can and will bleed ukraine.
I understand. You are one of those considering that the war in Ukraine is the fault of the "puppet government" and the best thing to do is give land to Russia.
War is always failed diplomacy. US has been consistently failing in the east europe since the fall of USSR. Greed vs long term strategy, lack of focus, lack or moral compass … When USSR fell apart US had a real chance to build close relationship with Russia. After all, the fall of USSR and the Eastern block was a result of a long fought Cold War. When WW2 was over US implemented a Marshall plan to all of the Europe, even USSR. This time however there was no plan, no direction, no vision. Surely the fall of USSR took US by surprise, but then again who fights a war with no plan on winning AND what to do after you win? So with that, US led by the Bush oil thieves family decided to turn Russia and the satellite states into what US had done around the world - another Banana Republic. But instead of installing a puppet president they offered to dump a ton of money into oil and gas as well as metals and other natural resources explorations and extractions. This created an oligarchy class in Russia and other states. At first all seemed to go well, as it always does except Russia is not some African or South American shit hole country and certain aspirations remained in place. So what did the US do? As expected, dismissed it, belittled it, laughed at it. Russia became a clown state, a laughing stock for the Europeans and the US. How long do you think that would last? And then, when Russia got on the isolationism and nationalism rails the US and Europe vilified it and marked it as a threat to Freedom and Democracy…. Although business never stopped. How convenient…
So I blame US and Europe for where we are today. We, the west, are very good at creating situations at which we then HAVE TO have a war. Results of WW1, results of brainless post WW2 middle eastern approach, results of Cold War… Only blind cannot see it or those with ulterior motives.
And as for Ukraine - no, it’s not the puppet government’s fault. Zelensky had no choice or chance. He hadn’t had any real power nor does he have any today. He is a poster kid of the Maidan revolution, a US led overthrow of the power in Ukraine, a massive gamble that depending where you are and where your interests lay either paid off or not. Ultimately this will be a failure for US and Ukrainian people.
The US will pull out (think ofIraq) pretend like we did what we had to do and announce “Mission completed”. For Ukraine it will be a disaster, massive loss of territories, massive loss of life, continual threat from Russia and likely another war in the next decade with a country many times larger in terms of human resources, economy and military potential. Like I said, a huge diplomacy failure.
TL;DR. Apparently your head is only full with USA-USSR friendship. FYI, there are other nations, too, and these are trying to pursue their own interests, in all this craziness. Their goal in life is not USA or USSR interests or friendship. By any chance, are you living in the USA now and vote for Trump?
Apparently you know extremely little of any history and unable to think independently of media narratives. Also, you exhibit little of contextual understanding of what goes on in eastern europe and ex soviet states but very good at hanging labels on people. By chance, yes, i am a US citizen since early 90s and my vote is given to those that closely representing my way of thinking, regardless of the party. With that, i am fairly certain you are a ONE party man and robotically vote as the TV tells you. As to your FYI - laughable commentary when it comes to Ukraine and Russia. Both were For Sale and both dreamed of being a dungeon girl to US. The only thing - US bid on the wrong one, or rather wanted both but didnt know how so ended up with an uglier girl.
Apparently I don't know anything, but I was exactly right about were you are and whom do you vote for, just from two comments :))) Only this, and contradicts your narrative. I am quite clever, thank you! Do not worry about my knowledge of history. I am in Romania and well informed.
I see you are a big “expert” in history? I was also born in Ukraine during the Soviet era. But unlike you, I didn’t run away in search of a warm place, because I have a Homeland. Reading your nonsense is a waste of time. People like you know better than anyone what is happening in Ukraine, what the Maidan was like and who is leading Zelensky. Don’t embarrass yourself and don’t write all sorts of nonsense here about a country to which you now have no connection and no idea. Ukrainians defend their nation. And we have little choice - either die (become slaves) or, at the cost of huge losses, repel the attack of creatures who for some reason call themselves people.
I am not sure a Ukrainian would say the US ended up with the uglier girl. He's not Ukrainian. He's just born in Ukraine during the Soviet era :)
Parrot narratives of Russian propaganda. One who calls himself "we, the West" has only a huge ego and a xenophobic view concerning "non-Western" part of the world.
Jee, this "child of the ussr" clown just shitposts about Ukraine .
You are seriously ill informed. Try reading more from outside Russian Blogosphere.
Why is the Russian perspective always that someone else cheated it of greatness and that it will become a great nation again? This is nonsense. Russia has always been a dictatorship and slave state. Ukraine wants to be something else and the dictatorship in Russia objects to upsetting the Apple cart.