On Terrorists & Fascists...

Hello everybody!

The last two weeks, while our glorious politicians and the media were busy distracting us with reports about ‘negotiations’ between Israelis and Palestinians, it was actually so that the tensions between Israel, Iran, and USA were all the time rapidly escalating. The last night, the situation ‘exploded’, literally.

Now, before I go on with my summary, and because I know that lots of people are going to get upset when reading the following, a ‘disclaimer’: You do not like my ‘harsh’ critique of our corrupt and incompetent politicians? You might find the following ‘too long to read’? Not my problem. I can only recommend you not to read the following.

The others: please be patient with me. I’m from the 1900s…

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Vocabulary

CO = Commander

IASF = Israeli Air & Space Force

IDF = Israeli Defence Force

IRGC = Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

IRGC-QF = Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Qods Force (IRGC branch responsible for ‘expeditionary’ operations, for example in Syria, in Lebanon, in Yemen…)

MIRV = multiple re-entry vehicle

XO = Deputy Commander

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On 1 April this year, the IASF deployed its F-15s and/or F-16 fighter-bombers and Stunner air-launched missiles to smash a specific building in the Almazza District of Damascus, capital of Syria.

As far as is known up to 12 people were killed, including five Syrian civilians and at least seven officers of the IRGC. Top-ranking between these were:

-          Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Zahedi (CO IRGC-QF in Syria),

-          Brigadier-General Mohammad-Haji Rahimi (XO IRGC-QF in Syria)

-          Brigadier-General Hossein Amanollahi (representative of the IRGC’s Chief of Staff).

Of course: Israel never officially acknowledged it did so, and the building in question was, at least officially, no ‘Iranian embassy’ as some say. So, this part is ‘ambiguous’, to say the least. At most, the building was something like ‘Iranian consulate’.

Point is: Tehran considered it a ‘diplomatic facility’. As such, Tehran declared the Israeli strike a violation of the Article 22 of the Vienna Convention, and insisted it has the right to self-defence (see the Article 51 of the UN Charter…and if you happen not to care about the UN Charter, please go out, find yourself the any police officer and tell him/her you do not care about the laws of your country, then see what happens).

Now, to be sincere, I didn’t expect Tehran to go much beyond its usual complaints, threats and big announcements. However, since 7-8 April, things did get serious. In these two days, Tehran is said to have communicated to the USA (via Oman, because USA and Iran do not maintain diplomatic relations), that it is going to strike on Israel unless the USA guarantee an immediate and permanent cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. I.e. Iran should have offered the USA a choice: avoid a direct attack on Israel and end the Israeli onslaught on the Gaza Strip, or we’re going to attack.

According to the Israeli press, the USA denied there was such an Iranian offer.

Indeed, around the same time, the Minister of Justice of the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu then announced that if Netanyahu ends the Israeli onslaught on the Gaza Strip, he does not have a mandate to continue serving as prime minister. Unsurprisingly, Netanyahu then announced that the IDF would start a ground offensive on Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip (and that contrary to what his allies in the West – foremost the USA – are demanding). Moreover, the US President Biden repeated his usual, ‘we’re devoted to the defence of Israel….and Iran will not succeed…’ while the German Foreign Minister called Tehran to ‘ease the tensions in the Middle East’ – as if it was Tehran who started. Foremost: nobody in the West said a beep about the Israeli attack on what Iran considered a diplomatic post.

And so, the tensions continued to raise. Therefore, the USA began deploying reinforcements to Israel and ‘other’ of its bases in the Middle East – where the ‘other’ turned out to be limited to Jordan, and a bit to Iraq. Because all the other of glorious ‘US/Western allies’ there – see: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Turkey – have prohibited the use of US/Western bases on their territories for any kind of military operations against Iran. Indeed: they then rushed to order their citizens to leave both Israel and Iran.

And so, a show down between Zionists and IRGC became unavoidable.

Now, I could offer you a lengthy discussion of their ideologies, methods, and reasons. In the public, all that matters are ‘impressions’ and ‘associations: from my POV, what matters is the ideology and methods, and in the case of Zionists and the IRGC, I cannot but conclude that both are fascistoid movements claiming to be ‘acting in the name of God’, ‘but very democratic’, and ‘ruling on behalf of people’ and whatever. Actually, just like 85% of Zionists does not believe in ‘God’, but do think that the ‘God’ gave them the Palestine, so also the mass of IRGC-people I happen to know are not the least religious, but convinced their have a Messianic mission to do… And so, when one pits fascists against fascists, and then adds some of typical Zombie Idiotic Western politics, well, specific results are nothing but unavoidable.

In the evening of 12 April, Hezbollah – which is meanwhile little else but ‘IRGC West’, because even if (naively) considered ‘Lebanese’ in the West, it’s controlled by Tehran – opened the first rocket barrage on northern Israel. Arguably, most of the population of northern Israel is evacuated since early October the last year, and the IASF air defences well-developed, so ‘not much happened’.

Then, yesterday evening, Hezbollah repeated the exercise and by then it became obvious that ‘something big is in the making’.

Eventually, the last night, the IRGC launched a major, three-wave strike on Israel.

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1^st Wave

This included ‘hundreds’ (some say around 200) Shahed and Shahed-like UAVs. Many were programmed to travel over Iraq and Syria at a relatively high altitude, and visibly marked.

2^nd Wave

This included ‘dozens’ of cruise missiles.

3^rd Wave

This was a three-wave ballistic missile strike including up to 80 missiles launched from bases outside Tabriz, Urumiyeh, Kermanshah, Qom, Tehran (al-Momenin), Shiraz and Esfahan. (UPDATE: seems, the first wave alone included 70 missiles, the second over 80, and the third… that’s not yet known).

Why this ‘three-wave’ attack?

Because, depending on from where in Iran were they launched, the slow-flying UAVs like Shaheds need 7-9 hours to reach Israel. Cruise missiles need 1-2 hours. And ballistic missiles need their 15-20 minutes. And the IRGC was aiming all of these to hit Israel at the same time, so to overwhelm the Israeli air defences. Because: if ‘500+ UAVs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles’ all reach Israel ‘around the same time’, then the IASF (and allies) has to defend against 500+ UAVs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles’ – at the same time. Not ‘just’ small numbers of them, one after the other…

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Now, the Israelis claim to heave shot down ‘99% of incoming UAVs and missiles’ (and did so, officially, by also using videos from 2014…). Moreover, at least two of IRGC’s ballistic missiles have failed on launch (one blew up during the launch from al-Momenin Missile Base,  another shortly after start over Kermanshah). Another is known to have crashed in Iraq, and one was shot down over Jordan (its wreckage crashed in Amman).

And, indeed, the IASF defended with everything it’s got: manned interceptors (F-15s, F-16s, F-35s) and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs, like Arrow II, Arrow III, David’s Sling, and MIM-104 Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T). This effort was supported by (at least) MIM-104 Patriot SAM-systems of the US Army deployed in Israel, F-15Es of the US Air Force deployed in Jordan, four interceptors of the Royal Air Force forward deployed on Cyprus (RAF Akrotiri), plus air defences of the Royal Jordanian Air Force.

However, the majority of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel not only functioned as designed, but also had multiple warheads (or ‘multiple re-entry vehicles’, MIRVs in military jargon). The ‘red bottles’ visible on photos like this one:

Also, most were equipped with decoys. Means: instead of ’up to 80’ missiles, the Israelis and allies had to target ’240+’ incoming warheads and decoys. As a consequence, the Israelis seem to have run out of ‘ready to use’ SAMs already during the first wave of Iranian ballistic missile strikes. They couldn’t re-load their launchers before the second and third wave.

Multiple of IRGC’s missiles and their MIRVs as seen while passing above the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem…

…and as result, the Israelis are known to have fired only one SAM at the 2^nd wave of IRGC’s ballistic missiles, and none at the 3^rd wave.

The IRGC thus scored at least 7 hits on Ramon AB,

….(here another video of an impact on Ramon AB), and another 7 on Nevatim AB, and an unknown number of hits on unknown objects in the Tel Aviv area (probably air defence systems).

Both Ramon and Nevatim are crucial facilities. Between others housing the Israeli F-35-fleet. Nevatim is also the primary training facility. That said, Ramon AB was not only targeted because it’s important and ‘there’ – but because it was the base from which the IASF launched its strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and its (relatively) close to the Israeli nuclear complex in Dimona (see the ‘message’: ‘if we can hit Ramon, we can hit Dimona, too’).

A map of ‘Red Alerts’ in Israel of the last night. As can be seen, these were ‘focused’ on two areas. The Hezbollah-targeted northern Galilee, and the area south of the West Bank - ‘Negev Desert’, where both Nevatim and Ramon ABs are.

Thinking of it…

a.) both Nevatim and Ramon Air Bases were paid for and constructed by the USA….

b) In the coming days, we can expect to read a lots of reports about ‘heroic’ Israeli, US and British pilots ‘doing great job’, ‘shooting down scores of Iranian UAVs’, and then ‘99% of them outside the Israeli borders’.

Just, nope: there is still no way for fighter jets to engage ballistic missiles. Which in turn means: the IRGC ‘pulled the Israelis by the nose’ (distracted them with UAVs), and then ‘hit them in the guts’ (ballistic missiles).

***

What next?

Well, Iran has announced to the UN that it has made the use of the Article 51 of the UN Charter. See: self-defence. Foremost, it announced that it considers this affair for ‘concluded’. It has also warned that ‘should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. This is a conflict between Iran and the rouge Israeli regime from which the US must stay away.’

From my POV, this is a clear ‘mission statement’, saying: ‘this was a one-off, and we’re happy; if you stop shooting at us, we’ll stop shooting at you’.

However, why should Israel stop? Or anybody else pay attention? Netanyahu’s sole aim is to remain in power, and there’s nothing else as useful for this purpose but ‘mortal threat’ for Israel - and yet more war. Unsurprisingly, the Israeli government has already authorised ‘retaliation’ against targets on Iranian proper.

….and, well, I do have my doubts that Biden might still have enough sanity to hold the Zionsits back. And he, surely, has no means to hold the IRGC back.

…while the IRGC is perfectly happy to continue, then the more ‘threats for Iran’ there are, the more Iranians are ‘rallying around its flag’. Indeed, even the mass of (Sunni) Arabs in the Middle East are cheering missile strikes by (nominally: Shi’a) IRGC on Israel.

With other words: ‘to be continued’.

And because this is going to be continued, one should keep in mind: the IRGC appears to have used ‘only’ its ‘light’ ballistic missiles in the last-night’s attack. Types like Rezvan and Haj Qasem, perhaps also Khaybar-Shekan.

None of heavier Ghadrs, Emad, Fattah-1/2s, Sejil-2s, Dezful, Qiam-2s, or Khorramshahr-2s…

And in the ‘game of numbers’ – the number of ballistic missiles with which the IRGC can reach Israel, compared to the number of Israeli- and US-operated SAMs in Israel and Jordan – well: it’s not looking as good, for Israel.