51 Comments
Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I do not know what version of S-300 Iran has, but if hey have anti-ballistic capabilities I guess Israel would not use ballistic missiles to strike Iran, unless they are very sure Iranian S-300 could not hit them. Because if Israel use just a few missiles - they may be shot down and prove Israel have nothing special. If they use many of them then they would risk major escalation and lost of support from USA, EU. That Biden's private message to Netanjahu is just about it.

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An S-400 site in Dzhankoi was obliterated last night by ATACMS... Iran's S-300 PMU-1/2 does not have any serious ABM capability, especially against IRBM /MRBM like Jericho. For that they would need at least S-300V which was designed to counter Pershings.

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Apr 17·edited Apr 17Author

That's one of points about the IRGC-ASF and the IRIADF (the former is the air defence asset of the IRGC, the latter is an independent branch of regular forces, specialised in operating ground-based air defences).

They're operating a lots of new SAM-systems, developed over the last 10 years in cooperation with the PRC. See: Sayyad, 3rd Khordad, Mersad 16, Bavar 373....

....and, about 10-15 entirely new radar systems of similar origin.

....and nobody can really say how good or bad are these. Only that, just for example, the Bavar 373 was developed to make S-300s unnecessary (because at the time Putin was holding S-300s back).

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Apr 18·edited Apr 18Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Iranians boast Bavar 373 can shot BMs and it seems logical to me that firing BMs to Israel without owning some ABM SAM would be a little foolish. So, let's say they are prepared for Israel BM attack and this makes this attack less likely.

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

A heartily thank you for your update (even if the capuccino stains make it look something starbucking. Just kidding).

Seems that everyone are very afraid of Iranian missiles (obviously), but no about Israeli (nuclear) missiles, more worrisome IMHO.

Fingers crossed about the next chapter of Near (or Middle, or whatever) Orient’s soap opera.

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Interesting stuff. Whether a Jericho III with a conventional warhead could do the same or better job than the Massive Ordnance Penetrator seems like a physics question that could be answered with open source data.

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Apr 17·edited Apr 17

Also, you underestimate Biden and Netanjahu. Netanjahu is a smart ass, i think he is not about starting war with Iran, just want survive this mess and keep domestic power. So, his answer would be something to NOT escalate the situation. What he needs - 1. either to lessen the stress on the northern Israeli border (and IRCG generals are not any martyrs, they do not want to die in Syria) or to show Israeli public he has done something at least. 2. To distract attention from Gaza.

So, when Israel will do some small snort like like ssssht, the world would say: "Aaah and oooh that Israel is soo peaceful. And Gaza - they let some trucks in, wonderful. Let's do the business as usual."

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Mmm. The mention of the Jericho missiles makes me fear about a nuclear decapitation strike. If tomorrow 20 Jericho are launch against Iran, with Nuclear warheads and Teherán and Meraban are destroyed, who is going to do something about? The UN? Russia? The other arab states? The US?

The genocidal government in Israel is a very dangerous thing and all the world tolerante it. And if they choose to erase Iran, who will do something?

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An international embargo and pariah state status would hit Israel pretty hard, which is exactly why that's not happening

I mean besides the fact there is absolutely no reason to suspect they'd do that anyway

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I discovered your work in 2022 when I sought to learn more about the conflict in Ukraine and particularly appreciate the historical scholarship and quality of information you develop.

I understand that you can be so sarcastic, and sometimes acerbic. Unfortunately, I become one too often.

I can only make the depressing observation that the world is now governed by a kakistocracy of self-important communicators. The wise are rejected by the solidarity of mediocre ambitious people, neurotics and brainless activists.

As for Israel, I can't help but remember the discomfort I felt reading the Old Testament when I was still very young. It's all about massacres and the wrath of God. The Jewish people are being massacred and enslaved or are massacring their enemies. There is no peace with “the other.”

Carl Jung spoke of the collective unconscious. If the Israeli collective unconscious is nourished by this then the Zionists will not stop until they have been defeated or are victorious. The only solution to bring peace would be for the USA and Europe to seriously bang their fists on the table, but that will not happen.

Another concept of Carl Jung is collective neurosis. He designed it for Nazism but today we can apply it to the Russia of the special operation and to the unbridled Zionism that the massacres of October 7 released.

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Absolutely. Western governments lost control of their Middle Eastern foreign policy decades ago. Informed Western publics thought that was just a Palestinian problem. Then it was an Iraqi problem, a Syrian problem or a Libyan problem. We're on the brink of it becoming a global problem.

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Apr 17·edited Apr 17Author

Want an even more depressing read?

Check different books by Martin van Creveld.

....or better not: they are causing one outright sleepless nights...

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Apparently very few of his books have been translated into French, but I will certainly find one to keep me from sleeping. Thank you.

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Wrote quite a few books. Suggestion with which one to start?

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author

Defending Israel.... The Sword and the Olive... The Age of Airpower...

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Thanks

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I thought Creveld was a contrarian who has insisted "Israel can live with a nuclear Iran" - of all the Israelis possibly the least responsible for sleepless nights..

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Oh, he's a 'contrarian' in many things.

My concern is the part where he's explaining the Israel's ultimate doctrine: if we go down, you all go down. See: should Israel get overrun, they're going to deploy their nukes against Europe (not 'only' against Arabs or whoever else might bring them down).

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You can drop all the half-scientific psychology by dead Europeans - a more straightforward way to think about Israel is this: a small group of first-movers years ago invested big in Zionism then protected that investment by telling stories that make people around the world feel connected to Israel. A few generations in, there are layers to the thing - but still a small group on top of the pile running the show.

It's a pyramid scheme. All countries are to a degree, but Israel especially because if you examine Zionism logically the enterprise is insane.

A people with a history of being enslaved or outright murdered wants to gather in one place, trusting to allies and weapons to protect them? Like, read the Bible, see how well that worked for the Jewish people even before the age of nuclear arms. It was the global diaspora that allowed Judaism to survive where most other cultures its age perished. You can have a Holy Land without needing to always physically be there - not all Muslims can live in Mecca nor should all LDS folks live in Utah.

Israel has always been living on borrowed time because to sustain the power of the early generation of settlers requires constant migration into the country. But who wants to live in a place where they might get bombed because people who hate them live just across the valley?

So Israel's government has to offer the illusion of security at any cost. It also has to create a very specific and limited conception of Israel and the Jewish people as a whole that does immense violence to both in the long run. Organizations like AIPAC fight to insist that all criticism of Israel is antisemitic because they know perfectly well that if you start to question why Israel has a forever pass to violate international law, that starts a mind down a dangerous road where the essential logic of Zionism comes under scrutiny.

None of this nonsense is new - it's the old virus of imperialism at work. Jung's "collective unconscious" idea is itself a deflection from the reality that people are told they must accept imposed narratives from their authorities or the world descends into anarchy. They mostly obey out of convenience or fear. All the Nazis were doing is telling one group of people that they were very special and everyone else was undeserving of basic rights or access to resources because of history. Same as Israel today.

The good news is that the world Israel relies on to survive is dying. It's on a dead end road, doomed to tear itself apart over the difficult question of the right way to be a Jew in a world where Jewish communities across the globe have naturally evolved in different directions.

Kill diversity, kill yourself.

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

The insanity is hard to fathom. Iran basically says, if you don’t hit me I won’t hit you. If you hit me then I will hit you back. Israeli response: I have to hit you so that you don’t hit me.

Ok, it is clear that Israel has gone insane and now exclusively worships a god called “deterrence” that requires never-ending war. The question is, why does everyone blindly go along with this? Why is it so hard to say, no, don’t do that?

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I like the neat irony of "deterrence... requires never-ending war". It sums up the mess we've been in since 9-11 beautifully and not just in the Middle East.

But history shows there is some hope too. Northern Ireland and Apartheid-era South Africa were once widely thought of as insoluble religious/racial problems.

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Deterrence is what exists now, since Iran conducted their attack. The security-insecurity paradox is the problem. Israel needs to feel more secure than the rest of the region. Making itself super-secure makes them feel less than secure.

"The question is, why does everyone blindly go along with this?"

The example of what would have been called "interference" in the British general elections of 2016 and 2019 (if the Russians were culpable) against a pro-Palestinian Labour leader illustrates why everyone (in the political class) blindly goes along with it. Challenge Israel and, at best, your career goes down in flames. That's just demonstrable. (For fuller details, see Al Jazeera's "The Lobby" on YouTube.)

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I think it is more "If you won't hit me I won't hit you directly, but I can hit you through proxy's whenever I feel like it, and you can hit my proxy's as much as you like, we don't really care".

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Yeah, that is the status quo. Israel seems to be chomping at the bit to have a major war with Iran. They seem to think that will solve all their problems. And that the people of Iran will rise up against the government. Biden just has to tell Netanyahu that, if Israel provokes Iran, then next time the US will not be shooting down Iranian missiles. If Israel wants to go it alone against Iran they can. But don’t expect the US to get involved.

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Russia is the similar way, they have to hit Ukraine so Ukraine doesn't hit them. It's even more resoundingly insane.

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks tom!!

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Apr 17·edited Apr 17

I am trying to see how killing few generals in Syria is in the same level of escalation as direct strike with shitload of drones and missiles. I mean let's back to what they(generals and others) do here in the first place. Aaand they likely to be part of the global campaign of proxy war against Israel, which include shelling and other military actions .Am i wrong?

I try to imagine situation:

1)Israel supply some proxy in Iraq(for example)with same level of weapons hezbollah received. And this guys do same kind of shit Iran proxies do, including to hit mainland iran with some shitty rockets etc.

2)Iran get enough and strike some high ranks who orchestrate process on the ground. And receive full scale long range strike in response.

Will that agree to calm this down? No fucking way.

Not like i am care much about genocide lovers, but still.

BTW,all this have 0 (zero) relation to people of Gaza, Iran do not intend to help anyone.

Anyhow. Maybe It's always been that way, but in my head when someone shoot this kind of strike on another country it automatically means war. Pure naive child me. Looks like in middle east (only here?) it just a Tuesday in 2024. Pure mandess.

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They attacked airfields where the planes came from that killed their citizens in their consulat, which is Iranian sovereign territory.

As it is heavier protected, you need more firepower.

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So if you throw explosives in north Israel it is fine. And if consulat being attacked it is require response like that? What is the difference?

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Technically that in North Israel is not Iran. Doesn't make it better.

Attacking a consulate is the same as attacking an embassy and therefore the same as attacking someone on Iranian soil. That is international law, if you like it or not. Iran attack the airbase on sovereign Israel territory as did the Israelis attack the two generals on sovereign Iranian territory. The amount of weaponry used is higher, yes, but the success rates are the same. As nobody was killed in Israel, the Israelis still killed more people.

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This is like saying that if Ukraine destroys all the missiles and drones at a certain point, and nobody is killed, it is fine and Russia can continue attacking.

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As far as I have read (even in this chanel few posts before) is "Iran considers it a consulate". So is it a consulate from international law perspective? Or just Iranian point of view.

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No, it's not the same as attacking an embassy if a) it's not even part of the diplomatic complex and more importantly b) it's being used to station military personnel engaging in military activities. That second part would render even the international protection of the actual embassy null and void, conventions pretty explicitly state that medical infrastructure, schools, diplomatic objects and so on CANNOT be used for military purposes or they become fair game.

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

In the second to last paragraph, I think you meant to write “only the eighth nation” or “one of only eight nations”.

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After reading about the Zionist plans of 1948, I also spilled my coffee, remembering the so-called Dulles plan to destroy the USSR, which for some reason exists only in Russian.

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Wonder if Israel is taking its time because a submarine with cruise missiles is moving into position south of Hormuz...

My guess is that the Israelis will settle on simple mirroring - a few ballistic and cruise missiles hit a remote IRGC missile base or two in Iran along with a lot of jamming of Iranian radars. Cyberattacks and some sabotage too. No need to use a neighbor's airspace. And takes a few days to organize while allowing the US to disclaim all responsibility.

You happen to know anything not covered in the media about Iran's nuclear program? One evaluation I ran across suggests it can build half a dozen bombs in a month. Adds another edge to the message Tehran delivered. One that's like a red flag waved in front of someone like Bibi Netanyahu.

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Apr 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you Tom, my hope is that Israel decide to calm down and not start a wide war but I'm not betting on that

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I am wondering, could all the Israeli strategic plans just thwarted by the neighbours NOT periodically attacking them...

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What neighbours are attacking Israel (periodically or not)?

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Since 1948 you mean (as per your secret joint chiefs report)? So all of them? Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan/Transjordan multiple times. Or is there some secret report which states that these wars never happened? I am not sure what You have ment with your comment. You mean recently or something?

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Yeah.... quite obvious you do not understand anything at all... because what you say here about 'Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan/Transjordan' (invading) Israel 'multiple times' is pure hogwash. Simply not truth. And I have never said that - because there is no documentation confirming this.

In November 1947, Zionists began mass ethnic cleansing of Palestinians out of Palestine. By the time the above-mentioned report by the JFCS was prepared, they've already cleansed over 300,000 people from their homes. Neighbouring Arab states could have attacked, but didn't: they were waiting for the 'British Mandate for Palestine' to expire, on 15 May 1948. Now, once this expired, Zionists declared Israel, but: at the time they still didn't control even 30% of Palestine...

....and then:

In 1956. Israel invaded Egypt...

In 1967, Israel invaded Egypt, Jordan, and Syria...

In 1973 Egypt and Syria attempted to regain territories they have lost in 1967, didn't attack Israel as such...

In 1978 and 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon (and kept its south occupied for 20 years)....

....and Israel is still keeping the Golan Heights and the West Bank under military occupation.

So, please, explain me what secret reports should be around explaining it was any other way?

Or, please, be so kind: help yourself and learn something about history. It's a waste of time to have to explain you even the bare basics.

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Our Austrian friend please keep up THE HUMOR!!! Heavy subject here. Will lighten up the mood. Enjoyed very much Soap Opera, Forgotten history!

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Oh my goodness Tom...... You "MEANY." You've told the Persia.....Irania....IRGC's that Israel has NUKeY things and where they are. You Bass'Turd!!!!!

You are so MEAN......

:o)

(Sarcasm free /additional shipping and handling charges may apply)

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