(Non)Applied History Lessons
Hello everybody!
Had to chuckle, this morning. And that while trying to enjoy my usual mug of cappuccino…
Two times.
….you can imagine results, I guess…
Now, after cleaning the resulting mess, let me explain why.
As first, one contact drew my attention to articles in the US media with titles and content like this one, just for example. Essentially, these are telling a tragic story of poor little officials in the administration of the US President Joe Biden discovering yet more hot water: that (quote) ‘Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag Washington into a broader conflict’.
….and this is coming from ‘three people familiar with his (Biden’s) comments’.
No shit…
So, why did I chuckle about this, you ask?
Well, imagine yourself being in my slippers: imagine yourself knowing how much smarter would both Biden and the officials in his government be – if only paying attention about something called ‘history’.
What am I talking about?
Back in early 1948, certain Harry S Truman (reportedly: President of the USA at the time, but who can say….) was very concerned. The Second World War and thus the Holocaust were still very fresh in everybody’s memory, and thus, and understandingly, he was seriously worried about the outlooks for Jews in the Palestine. Therefore, he’s asked his Joint Chiefs of Staff – the body of the most senior military leaders of the US armed forces – for advice. Asked them something like, ‘are the Jews in Palestine going to survive, or are Arabs going to ‘drive them into the sea’, perhaps resulting in something like a “second Holocaust”’.
And, well it was 1948, and the top US military commanders were still a band of serious professionals, the experience of whom was, literally, ‘forged by fire’. They were fresh out of a murderous World War, which taught them to analyse objectively and realistically, or (literally) millions are going to die. With other words: they were a far cry from their pendants in the years 2001-2024, whose analysis is foremost painted with outlooks for comfortable and well-donated CEO-chairs of different major corporations.
And so, back then in early 1948, after few weeks of collecting intelligence, the JCS sat down and filled their report. Their answer to Truman. Between others, this explained that the Zionists were already in position of military superiority (not only vis-à-vis the Palestinians, but all the Arab neighbours of Palestine, too) and there was no danger of them losing any kind of a war.
Moreover, they’ve stressed the following:
'Zionist strategy will seek to involve [the United States] in a continuously widening and deepening series of operations intended to secure maximum Jewish objectives.’
Marked 'top secret', the document in question was issued on 31 March 1948. If anybody might care to try finding it again, it is collecting dust in the Decimal File 1946-1948, Plans and Operations Division, 091 Palestine TS (Section IIA, Case 6), Record Group 319, of something called the National Archives (of the USA).
(Nope: the last time I’ve checked, it wasn’t scanned to become available online. Why care about such unimportant affairs?)
Ah yes… BTW, the same document listed these (Zionist) objectives as follows:
- A) initial Jewish sovereignty over a portion of Palestine;
- B) acceptance by great powers of the right to unlimited immigration;
- C) the extension of Jewish sovereignty over all of Palestine;
- D) the expansion of ‘Erez Israel’ into Transjordan and into portions of Lebanon and Syria, and
- E) the establishment of Jewish military and economic hegemony over the entire Middle East...
From my point of view, this actually reads like a sort of ‘definition’ of the Israeli doctrine for the next 80 years (probably longer, but I can’t predict the future: so, why bother?). Although written months before Israel officially came into being, it’s defining, very precisely, what were the (future) Israelis after. Step by step.
‘But, that is history’, and therefore ‘irrelevant’. Have got to hear this even from a very dear (and, highly professional, at least in regards of all other affairs but those related to ‘Holy Land’) colleague, about a year ago.
***
So, now, after cleaning my spilled cappuccino, I sat down by my desk again, and continued reading messages that piled over the night. The next one that caused me to (re)spill my cappuccino was requesting me for assessment of the article here.
Why did I spill my cappuccino again?
Because I’ve recalled a bit longer story about something that can only be titled with ‘Unmentionable’.
…and I have to start telling it by outing myself. I used to work with one of authors of the article linked above, and thus my assessment is certain to appear biased. Especially because I cannot but start my ‘assessment’ with the observation that I know the gent in question as a cool and dedicated professional. At least since we two used to cooperate on a project that, some 15 years ago, was supposed to, but didn’t, result in …erm… ’unusually detailed’ book about the Israeli air force. (Essentially: I was the organiser of that project; he was the copy editor who signed as author after the Israeli military censorship threatened to jail [and throw away the keys] the actual, Israeli author).
But, I’m digressing (as so often). You want to know what’s the story in that article.
Essentially, it says that for its ‘they must do so’-retaliation for the IRGC’s missile strike on Israel, Israel might opt to hit back at Iran with their ballistic missiles.
Yes, cannot but conclude: this is perfectly possible. Especially for reasons explained in that article – even if not the way I would do so. I would write that this is so because not only is the fascistoid gang known as the Netanyahu cabinet still irresponsible enough to ignore IRGC’s warning and new doctrine, but also certain to come to idea that this would be something like a (quote) ‘lowest risk’-, even ‘least volatile kinetic’ option for such an action.
Kind of, ‘you’ve dared whacking us, we whack you even more - but not too much’. With stuff like this Jericho II:
Now, what the article does not mention is something…. a certain detail that, back then, ‘some 15 years or so’, when one of its co-authors and me were working on that book-project about the Israeli air force, ‘steered lots trouble’. And that’s why I’ve chuckled.
No, not for us, but for the actual author: essentially an innocent aviation fan and photographer in Israel.
I admit: I’m to blame. I was fed up of all the books about the Israeli air force talking about units flying fighter jets and other aircraft or helicopters, their insignia, camo of aircraft etc. – but all, and systematically, ignoring the ballistic missile component of the service. After all, in 2004 this was officially re-named from ‘Israel Defence Force/Air Force’ to ‘Israeli Air-Space Force’, but: every book about the resulting ‘IASF’ is describing just aircraft and helicopters, and certainly nothing that could ever reach the space….?
Long story short: we’ve ended adding and then removing a ‘brief passage’ on the Israeli ballistic missiles to that book (again: call me biased but I’m not going to mention its title because the publisher is not paying royalties to authors for nearly a decade). And so, that topic had to wait for another opportunity: until being discussed (and then properly) in this book.
What’s the story causing so much trouble?
It’s that with the factor ‘Unmentionable’.
Outside the place called Sdot Micha, in hills west of Jerusalem, there’s a – rarely – mentioned air base that’s not really looking like one. At least there are no long runways and ‘other stuff related to aircraft and helicopters’. Just ‘few tarmacked roads, some of which appear to be ending inside the local hills’.
You can find a more precise description here. Actually, this is a (nuclear) ballistic missile site. Designated the ‘Wing 2’, this base is, as far as I know, housing three IASF units:
- No. 150 Squadron
- No. 199 Squadron
- No. 248 Squadron
…plus two SAM-batteries equipped with Arrow II and Arrow III anti-ballistic missiles.
Unsurprisingly considering there are three IASF units operating ballistic missiles, the Wing 2’s complex is actually including three different facilities, nicely described here:
How exactly are these three squadrons organised and equipped is unknown (at least to me), but essentially: they’re operating such ballistic missiles like
Jericho IIb (range 1,500km; probably out of service by now),
Jericho III (range 4,038km), and
Jericho IIIA.
The force in question is, apparently, also involved - whether directly or indirectly - into projects like Ofeq, which made Israel only the eight nation to orbit an artificial satelite. Ofeq-missiles are usually shot into the space from Palmachim AB. With help of Shavit missiles: that’s the ‘civilian’ variant of the Jericho IIb.
No, I do not know how many Jerichos the IASF might have on hand to strike Iran. Usual estimates vary from 25 to 100. My best guess is that there were some 100 Jericho IIs back in the 1990s, and that all have been replaced by Jericho IIIs and similar stuff, meanwhile. But, that’s guess. And yes, I do assume they are precise enough to strike selected facilities in Iran.
I discovered your work in 2022 when I sought to learn more about the conflict in Ukraine and particularly appreciate the historical scholarship and quality of information you develop.
I understand that you can be so sarcastic, and sometimes acerbic. Unfortunately, I become one too often.
I can only make the depressing observation that the world is now governed by a kakistocracy of self-important communicators. The wise are rejected by the solidarity of mediocre ambitious people, neurotics and brainless activists.
As for Israel, I can't help but remember the discomfort I felt reading the Old Testament when I was still very young. It's all about massacres and the wrath of God. The Jewish people are being massacred and enslaved or are massacring their enemies. There is no peace with “the other.”
Carl Jung spoke of the collective unconscious. If the Israeli collective unconscious is nourished by this then the Zionists will not stop until they have been defeated or are victorious. The only solution to bring peace would be for the USA and Europe to seriously bang their fists on the table, but that will not happen.
Another concept of Carl Jung is collective neurosis. He designed it for Nazism but today we can apply it to the Russia of the special operation and to the unbridled Zionism that the massacres of October 7 released.
I do not know what version of S-300 Iran has, but if hey have anti-ballistic capabilities I guess Israel would not use ballistic missiles to strike Iran, unless they are very sure Iranian S-300 could not hit them. Because if Israel use just a few missiles - they may be shot down and prove Israel have nothing special. If they use many of them then they would risk major escalation and lost of support from USA, EU. That Biden's private message to Netanjahu is just about it.