Hello everybody! Early this morning, while drinking cappuccino, having a smoke, and reading your reactions and different messages, few - apparently - unrelated things came to my mind. So, I’ve told to myself: ‘lets put that on the paper and see if there is any kind of connection’…. This took a little bit longer to do than expected, and so this one is released late at night, once again…
No offense, but i see how many western military experts are trying to invent bicycle by trying to brainstorm reasons of why Ukraine is intercepting so many russian aircrafts recently, while demanding video/photo proofs of interception, which is kinda dumb.
I understand that giving any sort of "reaction" on any kind of military news is actual job of those military experts, but come on, why it's always so big copium and inventing of bicycle? Let me explain.
So, Ukraine have ±3 patriots systems with PAC2 missiles with average range of 150km.
Active frontline that russian use to launch their shit in Ukraine is about 1500km.
So in average, ukrainian air forces have only 1 patriot system to cover 500km of frontline, which is obviously useless, because to cover just 500km of active frontline, one patriot system should patrolling it 24/7 and patriot crew should know from where russian aircrafts are going to launch missiles/bombs even before russian aircrafts go into air.
On the other hand, Ukraine have tens of S300 with average range of 200-250kms. Lets say Ukraine have only 20 S300 systems.
That means that each one S300 system can cover 75km of active frontline, obviously outranging the range of covered zone.
Even if Ukraine have only ten S300 systems, that means each S300 system can cover 150km of active frontline, still outranging it.
So what the point of using patriots to play in constant hide and seek across 1500km frontline, if deploying just 10 S300 systems closer to frontline is already enough to do the same job but more effectice, and without 24/7 cosplaying NASCAR racing?
Also it's known that russians are currently bombing ukrainian part of frontline with KABs on daily basis, including non active frontline zones like Kharkiv, Sumi and Chernigiv.
Average range of KAB zone of launching is 50-80km. That means russian Su-34/35 should be closer to ukrainian AA systems to release KABs.
That also means, that S300 can be further in safer zone, than Patriot, while still able to detect and intercept russian aircrafts.
So again, why trying to invent bicycle and build some theories, if Ukraine is already have AA system that should be able intercept russian Su-34/35, especially if we consider that russuan avionics coupd be compromised?
Patriots is more likely deployed somewhere in big cities like Kyiv and Odesa to cover it from ballistic missiles. Because currently it's the only AA system in ukrainian hands that able intercept to it.
Slovakia gave division of their S300-PMU1 to Ukraine, which have maximum official range of 150km. It's also varies a lot on exact missiles modification from 40 to 150kms.
Also it's known that Ukraine invented Frankensam, which is IIRC Patriot system with S300 radar, so Patriot could have higher range. So maybe Ukraine do have some pieces of S300-PMU2 with maximum oficial range of 200km to take radars from it and "mate" it with Patriot.
Or maybe it was captured by ukrainians in fights.
But even if we consider that Ukraine have only S300 PMU with average range of 90km, it's still just roughly 15-16 S300 systems to cover whole frontline, that can be deployed closer to frontlines, without any need of constant moving here and there, trying to catch russian Su-34/35. Or even take just 10 S300 PMU, so it will be 150km for each S300 PMU which is doable just in some 20-30 minutes ride.
Even considering almost in 2 times shorter range than Patriot system with PAC-2 missiles, it's still more believable than only 3 Patriot systems somehow catching russian aircrafts in completely different parts of frontline, in completely different directions from south to north in a wide arc, with crew members who can predict exactly when, where, what and how russians are going to use their aircrafts, even before russian know it. They are just AA system crew, not some kind of clairvoyants.
I'm sorry, but why active homing is requirement? Semi-active radar homing is enough, 9M83ME for S300-VM is have it because it's 1990 modification of old ass modification of both 9M82 and S300-V from late 60's - 80's, and range vary from 100 to 200km.
48N6P-01 for S300-PMU using SAGG, which is also fine, it was produced in 1992 and have range for up to 195kms,
Slovakia may had it, as well as Ukraine.
Same with 48N6 for S300-PM that have 150km range, year of production is 1990 and probably it's also use SAGG for guidance.
Also this list is not full and not include missiles for at least 5-7 other S300 modifications, including ukrainian modifications of S300, as well as ukrainian modifications of missiles for S300, which is sorta top secret information by obvious reasons. Like if ukrainian air forces found a way to modificate even more old ass S200 system and its missiles to use it in surface-to-surface mode, i guess they could modificate S300 too.
I don't really get why you say that S300 is out of a question, while ukrainian air forces actively using it for 10 years of war, especially in last two years. russians are stoped to use their aircrafts inside Ukraine looooooooooong before Ukraine get first western AA systems, and S300 was the actual reason of that.
Like i said, launch zone for KABs is 50-80 kilometres. That means if Su34/35 want to hit some target 40kms deep into ukrainian territory, then Su34/35 need to release KAB being just 40km from actual frontline, so even if S300 PMU with average range of 90kms being deployed 40kms from actual frontline it's enough to see russian aircrafts and intercept it.
An AD system that uses semi-active homing becomes and easy target for anti-radar missiles. How many S300 systems did you say Ukraine had? Russia has about 300 active Su planes to hunt them.
A 1990 modification is unlikely to be found in Ukraine in any reasonable quantities as the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, and it takes quite a while to mass-produce a new weapon. Anything of 1992 is very likely to be Russia-made and will hardly end up in Ukraine.
Tom wrote that S300 and probably S200 missiles were originally designed with the surface-to-surface option.
Well, then Patriots also should be an easy target for anti-radar missiles, because PAC-2 missiles use TFV in combination with SARH. Only PAC-3 use ARH, but i hignly doubt that Ukraine do have MIM-104F PAC-3 MSE with 120km range at all.
Also considering that Ukraine didn't recieved anything from US since October, except some leftovers from "oopsie doopsie, we priced weapons wrong" ± 2 billions dollars, which was fully spent somewhere in late December, i also highly doubt that ukrainian air forces have any significant ammount of PAC2/PAC3 missiles left to hunt russian aircrafts now only with patriots, while russians still launching ballistic missiles almost on daily basis, and Ukraine doesn't have any other AA systems able to intercept it.
The difference is in the quality of the intercepting missiles and the Patriots have been continuesly developed while the Russian hardware did not with the same pace since the end of the cold war. So if you see patterns, you want to shoot those modern Su-34/35s down as I hardly read about the use of Su-24s any more. Don't you think that Ukrainians would have executed your suggestions for quite some time if it is possible as you described it?
Additionally, there was a change in command of the Ukrainian forces on the top level. Those dive bombs may be not accurate, but their blast radius is huge, they have an impact on morale as you can't do anything against them and they are excellent in destroying fortifications - cause if the hit, there is nothing standing anymore. So getting those reduced is a top priority for a new commander, even it risks your best device for air defence.
While Zaluzhniy was commander in chief, soldiers were complaining that they not recieve enough of everything, while they knew it's stored in warehouses and just not used. When Syrskiy became commander in chief, all this complains magically disappears, despite now soldiers have real shortage of everything.
So my personal assumption on this, is that Zaluzhniy was too cautious to deploy S300 just some 30-40 kms from actual frontline, while Sirskiy just using everything what he has, without any fears to lose some weapons/equipment.
And thinking that russians are not developing their shit is just dumb. They are improving it like every month, launching development of new systems as well, learning on their mistakes, etc. It just seems from westerner point of view that they are not improving, but from ukrainian point of view - we know that they are improving, because we are experiencing the results of their improvements on daily basis.
Tho, regardless how cool Patriots is, just 3 Patriots is not enough to cover 1500kn of actual frontline. If we had at least 10, it would be more believable, but we have just 3.
I have seen the statements about Zaluzhny you're mentioning here, yet it was always from some people outside of Ukrainian military, while my friends from the frontline are for some reason absolutely surprized with these statements and say it's a bullshit.
Cool, because i also have friends in ZSU and their respond about Zaluzhniy is not so warm. Anyway it's just only speculations and assumptions, don't take it too serious.
Even Zelensky in his speech about replacing Zaluzhniy said that not everything was going to frontlines, because, i quote "generals lost drones somewhere in storages".
And not throwing everything at frontlines is not some kind of "zrada", it's commonly used pre-planned strategy to save weapons for other tasks. For example western tanks were in storages for few months before southern counter-offensive started, where those tanks were firstly used. Abrams were in storages for even longer, until recent video of first usage in actual fight. Distribution of resources is one of the main task of any commander in chief. I don't really get why you are reacting so aggressively on this.
I wrote "not the same pace" and not that they are stupid. The reasons for that:
1.) The US military is spending much more than the Russians and payment attracts people, especially intelligent people.
2.) The kind of regime that is in place in Russia is not really encouriging free and critical thinking. So as those people can leave the country, in comparisson to Soviet times, they do, and they do that in huge numbers.
3.) The level of corruption is higher in Russia as salaries are much lower in the US and it is actually needed to survive even at some points. Hence, encouragement to sell secrets is higher as well.
4.) The US has a private sector that is producing those aircraft where there is at least some competition and not all is orchestrated by the state. Additionally, there is also huge production of civilian airplanes, whicht doesn't exist in Russia. You can draw ressources from there too. Thinking here especially about human ressources.
This developments you can see also in the development of 5th generation fighters:
The US is ahead and sometimes the SU-57 is classified as 4.5 generation fighter. Furthermore, the US and Chinese ones are flying and are also sold. The Russian are not. So there is clear evidence that the Russian development is lacking.
The absolute majority of Ukrainian S-300 have neither radars, nor missiles capable of hitting maneuvering targets at more then 50-60km, and it's with semi-active homing with systems absolutely known for the enemy, wich makes this your picture just a fiction.
You're not considering Ukraine is using bits of a Patriot battery(as Tom has consistently written) and comparing an S-300 to a Patriot system is potently naive. Patriot has more advanced Electronic Warfare systems, missiles, integration into a more modern battlefield information system, which we the Americans can see everything the Ukrainians are shooting at or down and possibly share information from our airborne and Satellite systems. The Patriot is doing things you cant even imagine and the Russians are finding out the hard way on the frontline. As well its likely what was used to augment the S-200s that shot down the A-50 in Russia.
Solid report. you hit on a point I love to hit on too. The Ukrainians are sneaky, and we have given them just about every toy we have to play with in terms of SAMs and ADA (keeping them supplied, giving them enough, and so on are another topic I will avoid so my blood pressure doesn't go up), and these FrankenSAMs are doing things nobody knows jack about, or even thinks is possible. I've heard stories that the NASAM came about because a general pulled a bunch of Senior NCOs and CW3s and 4s together and said "Here is a bunch of stuff, make a new ADA system", not sure I believe it, but I can see this same thing happening here. When you are in a war fighting for your life, so much of the BS drops away, and things roll. I've been in peacetime US Army and wartime US Army, and give me wartime any day for the simple point of so much less BS (BS still exists, but not as much and on totally different things). For Ukraine I have to think its the same. And I have to wonder how fast we and the RU are turning what we learn. Seeing these things are one thing, but countering them? Speed is the key. I saw us move fast with the IED threat, we can when motivated. I just wonder if we are more motivated than the RU.
Tom: I do greatly enjoy your technical "Rants" and "Raves" oh so much. Reminds me very much of another Tom......Tom Clancy and his oh so famous Techo-Thrillers. Red Storm Rising & Red October being two of my favorites. Ahhhh Red October....cough, cough...K-219.....hack.....
Thank your for the update Tom. It was an excellent and plausible explanation from a laymans point of view.
Regarding the incident of the police man shouting that US is enemy number one. I was once flying via Qatar. The Saudi gentlemen next to me explained to me in a 100% convinced tone, that Saddam was invaiding Kuwait because Madlene Albreight gave him a green light. She gave him that, so that the Saudi's let US forces be stationed in Saudia Arabia and that precisly over the most important oil fields in the country. About that even Gudrun Harrer is writing about that on her Der Standard articles. So this was not a single crazy guy.
Even the incident didn't happen, that mindset is definitly there. Also clearly reported by Peter Scholl-Latour while his travels in Afghanistan.
Maybe Ukrainian intelligence has more information about the shot down Russian jets but it cannot be published because the proofs are obtained by Ukrainian agents in Russia.
As usual, your technical articles are very good and informative. Sadly, i saw evidence of couple of s-300 launchers and other SAMs getting destroyed. The air war battle become very furious last weeks, sadly everyday we hear about new FAB strikes. I fear that without the USA delivering more SAMs, sooner or latter the RF will get the needed advantage. ZSU very brave.
Thanks for the write up Tom, I learned a lot. There's a lot of skepticism about the veracity of these Ukrainian claims but you bring up good points. Ultimately time will prove if they were right or not. But 4 visually confirmed Su losses is good news as well.
Great piece touching on two of the biggest unknowns simultaneously; EW, and the UAE & Qatar. Those regimes being definitely the most compelling rabbit holes in international relations. The only thing I suppose I would add is that the Qataris have a long term interest in growing the LNG market and geopolitical instability tends to be good for the LNG market.
Thx for explanations , Tom!
Don’t forget about massive UA hackers attacks on Sukhoj KB and MiG KB (kb-constructor bureau) back in 2022-23 with TBs tech data leaked.
So, IMHO Western and Ukrainian technicians have more then enough data to analyze.
Indirect confirmation for certain PSU successes could be also decreased aviation activity all over the frontline with exception Novomykhailivka sector
Wow, Thanks Tom .. . .what a way to start March, very interesting technical reports, I greatly appreciate the way you transmit knowledge
No offense, but i see how many western military experts are trying to invent bicycle by trying to brainstorm reasons of why Ukraine is intercepting so many russian aircrafts recently, while demanding video/photo proofs of interception, which is kinda dumb.
I understand that giving any sort of "reaction" on any kind of military news is actual job of those military experts, but come on, why it's always so big copium and inventing of bicycle? Let me explain.
So, Ukraine have ±3 patriots systems with PAC2 missiles with average range of 150km.
Active frontline that russian use to launch their shit in Ukraine is about 1500km.
So in average, ukrainian air forces have only 1 patriot system to cover 500km of frontline, which is obviously useless, because to cover just 500km of active frontline, one patriot system should patrolling it 24/7 and patriot crew should know from where russian aircrafts are going to launch missiles/bombs even before russian aircrafts go into air.
On the other hand, Ukraine have tens of S300 with average range of 200-250kms. Lets say Ukraine have only 20 S300 systems.
That means that each one S300 system can cover 75km of active frontline, obviously outranging the range of covered zone.
Even if Ukraine have only ten S300 systems, that means each S300 system can cover 150km of active frontline, still outranging it.
So what the point of using patriots to play in constant hide and seek across 1500km frontline, if deploying just 10 S300 systems closer to frontline is already enough to do the same job but more effectice, and without 24/7 cosplaying NASCAR racing?
Also it's known that russians are currently bombing ukrainian part of frontline with KABs on daily basis, including non active frontline zones like Kharkiv, Sumi and Chernigiv.
Average range of KAB zone of launching is 50-80km. That means russian Su-34/35 should be closer to ukrainian AA systems to release KABs.
That also means, that S300 can be further in safer zone, than Patriot, while still able to detect and intercept russian aircrafts.
So again, why trying to invent bicycle and build some theories, if Ukraine is already have AA system that should be able intercept russian Su-34/35, especially if we consider that russuan avionics coupd be compromised?
Patriots is more likely deployed somewhere in big cities like Kyiv and Odesa to cover it from ballistic missiles. Because currently it's the only AA system in ukrainian hands that able intercept to it.
What is the range of the S300 missiles that Ukraine uses?
Slovakia gave division of their S300-PMU1 to Ukraine, which have maximum official range of 150km. It's also varies a lot on exact missiles modification from 40 to 150kms.
Also it's known that Ukraine invented Frankensam, which is IIRC Patriot system with S300 radar, so Patriot could have higher range. So maybe Ukraine do have some pieces of S300-PMU2 with maximum oficial range of 200km to take radars from it and "mate" it with Patriot.
Or maybe it was captured by ukrainians in fights.
But even if we consider that Ukraine have only S300 PMU with average range of 90km, it's still just roughly 15-16 S300 systems to cover whole frontline, that can be deployed closer to frontlines, without any need of constant moving here and there, trying to catch russian Su-34/35. Or even take just 10 S300 PMU, so it will be 150km for each S300 PMU which is doable just in some 20-30 minutes ride.
Even considering almost in 2 times shorter range than Patriot system with PAC-2 missiles, it's still more believable than only 3 Patriot systems somehow catching russian aircrafts in completely different parts of frontline, in completely different directions from south to north in a wide arc, with crew members who can predict exactly when, where, what and how russians are going to use their aircrafts, even before russian know it. They are just AA system crew, not some kind of clairvoyants.
I don't see any Soviet long-range missiles with active homing for S300 in the wiki list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#Missiles
There are only two matching models, 9M96E2 and 40N6, of 1999 and 2018. I doubt they are available to Ukraine, as S400 was developed by Russia.
Thus it seems that S300 is out of question unless you can point to a missile that can be used with it.
I'm sorry, but why active homing is requirement? Semi-active radar homing is enough, 9M83ME for S300-VM is have it because it's 1990 modification of old ass modification of both 9M82 and S300-V from late 60's - 80's, and range vary from 100 to 200km.
48N6P-01 for S300-PMU using SAGG, which is also fine, it was produced in 1992 and have range for up to 195kms,
Slovakia may had it, as well as Ukraine.
Same with 48N6 for S300-PM that have 150km range, year of production is 1990 and probably it's also use SAGG for guidance.
Also this list is not full and not include missiles for at least 5-7 other S300 modifications, including ukrainian modifications of S300, as well as ukrainian modifications of missiles for S300, which is sorta top secret information by obvious reasons. Like if ukrainian air forces found a way to modificate even more old ass S200 system and its missiles to use it in surface-to-surface mode, i guess they could modificate S300 too.
I don't really get why you say that S300 is out of a question, while ukrainian air forces actively using it for 10 years of war, especially in last two years. russians are stoped to use their aircrafts inside Ukraine looooooooooong before Ukraine get first western AA systems, and S300 was the actual reason of that.
Like i said, launch zone for KABs is 50-80 kilometres. That means if Su34/35 want to hit some target 40kms deep into ukrainian territory, then Su34/35 need to release KAB being just 40km from actual frontline, so even if S300 PMU with average range of 90kms being deployed 40kms from actual frontline it's enough to see russian aircrafts and intercept it.
An AD system that uses semi-active homing becomes and easy target for anti-radar missiles. How many S300 systems did you say Ukraine had? Russia has about 300 active Su planes to hunt them.
A 1990 modification is unlikely to be found in Ukraine in any reasonable quantities as the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, and it takes quite a while to mass-produce a new weapon. Anything of 1992 is very likely to be Russia-made and will hardly end up in Ukraine.
Tom wrote that S300 and probably S200 missiles were originally designed with the surface-to-surface option.
Well, then Patriots also should be an easy target for anti-radar missiles, because PAC-2 missiles use TFV in combination with SARH. Only PAC-3 use ARH, but i hignly doubt that Ukraine do have MIM-104F PAC-3 MSE with 120km range at all.
Also considering that Ukraine didn't recieved anything from US since October, except some leftovers from "oopsie doopsie, we priced weapons wrong" ± 2 billions dollars, which was fully spent somewhere in late December, i also highly doubt that ukrainian air forces have any significant ammount of PAC2/PAC3 missiles left to hunt russian aircrafts now only with patriots, while russians still launching ballistic missiles almost on daily basis, and Ukraine doesn't have any other AA systems able to intercept it.
The difference is in the quality of the intercepting missiles and the Patriots have been continuesly developed while the Russian hardware did not with the same pace since the end of the cold war. So if you see patterns, you want to shoot those modern Su-34/35s down as I hardly read about the use of Su-24s any more. Don't you think that Ukrainians would have executed your suggestions for quite some time if it is possible as you described it?
Additionally, there was a change in command of the Ukrainian forces on the top level. Those dive bombs may be not accurate, but their blast radius is huge, they have an impact on morale as you can't do anything against them and they are excellent in destroying fortifications - cause if the hit, there is nothing standing anymore. So getting those reduced is a top priority for a new commander, even it risks your best device for air defence.
While Zaluzhniy was commander in chief, soldiers were complaining that they not recieve enough of everything, while they knew it's stored in warehouses and just not used. When Syrskiy became commander in chief, all this complains magically disappears, despite now soldiers have real shortage of everything.
So my personal assumption on this, is that Zaluzhniy was too cautious to deploy S300 just some 30-40 kms from actual frontline, while Sirskiy just using everything what he has, without any fears to lose some weapons/equipment.
And thinking that russians are not developing their shit is just dumb. They are improving it like every month, launching development of new systems as well, learning on their mistakes, etc. It just seems from westerner point of view that they are not improving, but from ukrainian point of view - we know that they are improving, because we are experiencing the results of their improvements on daily basis.
Tho, regardless how cool Patriots is, just 3 Patriots is not enough to cover 1500kn of actual frontline. If we had at least 10, it would be more believable, but we have just 3.
I have seen the statements about Zaluzhny you're mentioning here, yet it was always from some people outside of Ukrainian military, while my friends from the frontline are for some reason absolutely surprized with these statements and say it's a bullshit.
Cool, because i also have friends in ZSU and their respond about Zaluzhniy is not so warm. Anyway it's just only speculations and assumptions, don't take it too serious.
A bullshit again. It's not about warmth, some of them don't like Zaluzhny. It's about the statement that some weapons were at storages by his order.
Even Zelensky in his speech about replacing Zaluzhniy said that not everything was going to frontlines, because, i quote "generals lost drones somewhere in storages".
And not throwing everything at frontlines is not some kind of "zrada", it's commonly used pre-planned strategy to save weapons for other tasks. For example western tanks were in storages for few months before southern counter-offensive started, where those tanks were firstly used. Abrams were in storages for even longer, until recent video of first usage in actual fight. Distribution of resources is one of the main task of any commander in chief. I don't really get why you are reacting so aggressively on this.
I wrote "not the same pace" and not that they are stupid. The reasons for that:
1.) The US military is spending much more than the Russians and payment attracts people, especially intelligent people.
2.) The kind of regime that is in place in Russia is not really encouriging free and critical thinking. So as those people can leave the country, in comparisson to Soviet times, they do, and they do that in huge numbers.
3.) The level of corruption is higher in Russia as salaries are much lower in the US and it is actually needed to survive even at some points. Hence, encouragement to sell secrets is higher as well.
4.) The US has a private sector that is producing those aircraft where there is at least some competition and not all is orchestrated by the state. Additionally, there is also huge production of civilian airplanes, whicht doesn't exist in Russia. You can draw ressources from there too. Thinking here especially about human ressources.
This developments you can see also in the development of 5th generation fighters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth-generation_fighter
The US is ahead and sometimes the SU-57 is classified as 4.5 generation fighter. Furthermore, the US and Chinese ones are flying and are also sold. The Russian are not. So there is clear evidence that the Russian development is lacking.
The absolute majority of Ukrainian S-300 have neither radars, nor missiles capable of hitting maneuvering targets at more then 50-60km, and it's with semi-active homing with systems absolutely known for the enemy, wich makes this your picture just a fiction.
You're not considering Ukraine is using bits of a Patriot battery(as Tom has consistently written) and comparing an S-300 to a Patriot system is potently naive. Patriot has more advanced Electronic Warfare systems, missiles, integration into a more modern battlefield information system, which we the Americans can see everything the Ukrainians are shooting at or down and possibly share information from our airborne and Satellite systems. The Patriot is doing things you cant even imagine and the Russians are finding out the hard way on the frontline. As well its likely what was used to augment the S-200s that shot down the A-50 in Russia.
This was a great post.
Solid report. you hit on a point I love to hit on too. The Ukrainians are sneaky, and we have given them just about every toy we have to play with in terms of SAMs and ADA (keeping them supplied, giving them enough, and so on are another topic I will avoid so my blood pressure doesn't go up), and these FrankenSAMs are doing things nobody knows jack about, or even thinks is possible. I've heard stories that the NASAM came about because a general pulled a bunch of Senior NCOs and CW3s and 4s together and said "Here is a bunch of stuff, make a new ADA system", not sure I believe it, but I can see this same thing happening here. When you are in a war fighting for your life, so much of the BS drops away, and things roll. I've been in peacetime US Army and wartime US Army, and give me wartime any day for the simple point of so much less BS (BS still exists, but not as much and on totally different things). For Ukraine I have to think its the same. And I have to wonder how fast we and the RU are turning what we learn. Seeing these things are one thing, but countering them? Speed is the key. I saw us move fast with the IED threat, we can when motivated. I just wonder if we are more motivated than the RU.
Спасибо за работу
Tom: I do greatly enjoy your technical "Rants" and "Raves" oh so much. Reminds me very much of another Tom......Tom Clancy and his oh so famous Techo-Thrillers. Red Storm Rising & Red October being two of my favorites. Ahhhh Red October....cough, cough...K-219.....hack.....
Thanks for the report Tom, I'm going to relax and see if any of this will soak in
Spitzeartikel voll des Lobes, Danke, Tom!
Thank your for the update Tom. It was an excellent and plausible explanation from a laymans point of view.
Regarding the incident of the police man shouting that US is enemy number one. I was once flying via Qatar. The Saudi gentlemen next to me explained to me in a 100% convinced tone, that Saddam was invaiding Kuwait because Madlene Albreight gave him a green light. She gave him that, so that the Saudi's let US forces be stationed in Saudia Arabia and that precisly over the most important oil fields in the country. About that even Gudrun Harrer is writing about that on her Der Standard articles. So this was not a single crazy guy.
Even the incident didn't happen, that mindset is definitly there. Also clearly reported by Peter Scholl-Latour while his travels in Afghanistan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_invasion_of_Kuwait#Iraq%E2%80%93United_States_correspondence
Thanks, that is new to me. The person sitting next to me said Albright, but maybe he confused something.
A great insight Tom, thank you!
Maybe Ukrainian intelligence has more information about the shot down Russian jets but it cannot be published because the proofs are obtained by Ukrainian agents in Russia.
As usual, your technical articles are very good and informative. Sadly, i saw evidence of couple of s-300 launchers and other SAMs getting destroyed. The air war battle become very furious last weeks, sadly everyday we hear about new FAB strikes. I fear that without the USA delivering more SAMs, sooner or latter the RF will get the needed advantage. ZSU very brave.
Yes, two 36N6E radars: one on 24th, the other on 29th. Have addressed this in the lastest feature.
'Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.' - Will Rogers
Thanks for the write up Tom, I learned a lot. There's a lot of skepticism about the veracity of these Ukrainian claims but you bring up good points. Ultimately time will prove if they were right or not. But 4 visually confirmed Su losses is good news as well.
Great piece touching on two of the biggest unknowns simultaneously; EW, and the UAE & Qatar. Those regimes being definitely the most compelling rabbit holes in international relations. The only thing I suppose I would add is that the Qataris have a long term interest in growing the LNG market and geopolitical instability tends to be good for the LNG market.
Indeed, the more peace, the more bankruptcies in the LNG sector... and the other way around...