es ist noch (relativ) früh am Morgen und ich trinke meine erste Tasse Cappuccino, und rauche meine erste Camel.
Daher bin ich noch friedlich und werde Ihrem unsinnigen Versuch der Online-Telepathie einfach ignorieren.
Nächstes Mal versuchen Sie es mit KOMMUNIKATION anstatt Rätselraten. Kommunikation besteht daraus, dass Sie Fragen stellen, und ich antworte, und ich Fragen stelle, und Sie antworten. Dann wissen wir beide was der andere denkt, und brauchen nicht Rätselraten.
Also, lernen Sie zu kommunizieren.
Sollten Sie davon absehen, werde ich Sie einfach ignorieren - höchstens Sie irgendwann wg. Mobbing melden und dann blocken.
Oh, zuerst Online-Telepathie, dann auch noch Online-Beratung?
Sind sie sowas wie 'all-in Angebot'....?
....und wie originell....
Kommen Sie nie wieder auf die Idee mir irgendwas 'zu bedenken' zu geben, ohne sich - zuerst - über meine Standpunkte zu informieren. Denn: Sie haben keinen Schimmer von meinen Standpunkten und somit haben Sie überhaupt kein Recht mich zu belehren.
Und das war's. So lange Sie nicht lernen zu kommunizieren, gibt's zwischen uns nix zu besprechen.
That may be similar to Hitler's dilemma: first he used the aggressive "superhuman" rhetoric to mobilize his nation and stay in power, then he had to initiate the full-scale war to stay in power because his rhetoric started to rule the country on its own.
Tragically - and while this is nothing like an 'agreement' with all the bestialities committed by Hamas yesterday - one shouldn't forget the Hezbollah's experience of 2006. Hamas learned a lot from that, and switched its tactics from 'winning through not losing' to 'maximum damage, regardless the cost'.
In this regards, it cannot be denied that Netanyahu and his extremists have left them absolutely no other options.
As if they have a choice or a saying in matter , Israelis want their land but they don't want or like them and decided their fate for them long ago, but Palestinians lack the good manners to roll on thier back and die in silence and will die for lands .
Yeah right Israelis hold the Arabs best interest at heart , this is joke of the year
No amount of snake charming can smother the truth of the Israelis being genocidal occupiers
Accept defeat and try to build a better future. Could be a good idea, but how should the Palestinians get any acceptance from Israel? The settler movement continues to Grab land on the West bank. Within Israel the Arabic minority of Israel citizens looses their Rights and their homes continuously.. ar the moment how should the Palestinian get any agreement with Israel? Israel does not seem to stop. Maybe a total unconditional surrender and giving all to Israel would stop it, but... I think there is a major problem here with peace is that Neither side really wants it. At least not those in power.
Thank you for the answer. It needs a replay, or rather three. The first is what I agree on in your answer, the Second is what I diagree on and the Third is what you are ignoring.
Agree: Taking Israel of the map is something that should be dropped. It is nit a good basis for negotiation, it is not a good goal, it ignores the fact that Israel is a state, no matter its orginins. We cannot and shoul nit deny that fact. But, remember that If we accept that Israel is a state it can certainly also be an occupation state. Actually that is inherent in the «occupation state». But, agree, this should be dropped in the charter.
Disagree or at least modify. Drop the figthing... yes but,,, Palestine tried to negotiate via PLO. Got the Oslo Agreement, whivh for a lot of reasons where not succesfull... but they did try, very unsure what that got them. They will loose you say, that is probably right, but for the Palestinians in the Gaza it doesnt really matter any more. They have nothing left to loose. They live in a blocade on the fiftenteeth year, they have no future.. yes, they will loose this round, definetly at it will cost them a lot. Even more because of their behaviour now (war crimes/ terrorism etc). And they will loose the round after that... but they only need to win once. Sooner or later Israel will either break down internally; economically or socially. (If Hamas had waited longer what would have happened to the schisms inside Israel. Hamas murdering rampage has closed those rifts. They will stay closed fir years, but not for ever.
Ignored: You are conviently ignoring the ongoing land grabbing conducted by the settler movement and effectively sanctioned by the Israeli state. This is not something that happened 80 years ago. The Palestinians see it. Now, So how shall they build a common future now with one side stealing their resources? And walling them in, and for the Arabs that are Israel citizens treating them like Second class citizens. The Arab Israelians does not have the same right and duties as the Jewish Israelians do they? I have seen Israelians Jews stating the situation is now Apartheid. How should a surrender by Palestinians in Gaza enable them to build a better future?
I think you are putting far too much responsibility on the Palestinians and totally ignoring the Israeli culpability. But let me also be clear, while I can understand the desperation of the Palestinians this cannot be used as excuses for murdering civilians and taking them hostages. But I am very much afraid that IDF now will committ their own on the Palestinans. Thus hatred doth breed.
How the Palestinians are supposed to build a better future? If they accept the Israeli occupation, what are their options? Israel accepting them as equal citizen is simply a day dream. The only way to prosper w/o violence I see is trying to individually relocate to other countries and forget that they were Palestinian. And if that happens, that will mean that Israel has been able to reverse the demography completely which they have been trying to achieve from (and before) the time of their creation.
If you don't know that Israel is an occupation, then take a look at the map of Israel and Palestine from 1948 to this day. Even after that if you don't get how Israel is an occupation, then I guess there is no point in discussing it any further.
And about the Arabs being an equal citizen: well, Arabs who live in Israel can say better. But from the news, it is obvious that they are treated as second class citizens. Here are some articles about this:
Didn't really 'miss' that, but left it out: from my POV, that's within realms of 'could be/would be/should be'.
It might be long since I run into anybody from Hamas (some 20 or so years, and then because I was trying to research about the PLO's 'Force 17', its stillborn air force), but - and by best will - I would not know about Tehran exercising any kind of 'executive control' of the gang.
....not that the IRGC wouldn't like to have it. But, it simply has none.
Iranian 'endorsement' is like a 'like' on Facebook or Twitter/X.
The IRGC-QF is involved with the Houthis in Yemen. Yes, sure. Not since the start fo that uprising, and 'not really' at any important levels before around 2015. But, it is.
Even more so, the IRGC-QF is involved with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and similar organisations in Syria (Liwa al-Qods, 4th Armoured Division etc., for example), and Iraq (Harakat Hezbollah). No doubt about this.
The IRGC - and thus Tehran - is bragging with its support for Palestinians. And, no doubt, it maintained close ties to the PLO, right since the IRGC's inception, back in around 1976-1977.
But, the IRGC - and thus Tehran - does not have executive control over Hamas. It can't do the same it did with Hezbollah regarding Syria in November 2011: order it, 'go and fight there'.
Yes, originally, Hezbollah was about being a Shi'a and defending the Shi'a population of Lebanon - with Iran's support. However, such times are long since over: regardless what their PRBS is claiming, they're hand-picking 'brains', no religious fanatics. Foremost: the are under directl control of Tehran. If Tehran says 'hop', Hezbollah has to hop, and in a big loop.
Hamas' ideology is based on that of the Muslim Brotherhood. As such, sure, 'incompatible' with the IRGC and Hezbollah. It is supported by Iranian money and arms, but Tehran has no direct control over it: it can't order it when and where to do what.
I was always curious, how is that Iran - Hamas support when Iranians are shia and Hamas (Palestinians) are suni muslims and they do not like to walk hand in hand usually.
Comes from the fact that back in the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran began supporting the Lebanese Shi'a, when thousands of these were massacred by Israeli air strikes and artillery shelling. And with the Shah's help came preachers from Qom, and so the Lebanese Shi'a began receiving stipends in Iran.
....which, eventually, led to the establishment of what became the Hezbollah, too...
....before soon, some obscure group of people gravitating around certain Ayatollah Khomeini approached the PLO for provision of military training. Palestinians were skeptical, but eventually agreed. One of the 20 people they've trained in 1976-1977, was Khomeini's son. The other 18-19 went on to help Khomeini establish himself in power in the course of a civil war that erupted in Iran once the Shah was forced to leave the country: they became the Pasdaran (guardians of the quasi-clerical regime in Tehran) and, in January 1981, were reorganised into the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). A heavily armed body standing above all the laws in Tehran ('acting in the name of God'), which then established itself in control of the state and the entire economy, and began following the strategy of 'return to Jerusalem'...
...and so a strategic alliance was born...
....and when then the Maronite Christians hijacked and bestially tortured the de-facto Iranian ambassador to Lebanon (before dumping his mutilated body away), the IRGC assumed this was an act at least sanctioned by Israel. And so an undeclared war began, too...
Very interesting, I had absolutely no idea that the Iranian Hezbollah relationship pre-dated the revolution! Sort of throws a new and ambivalent (from a "Western perspective") light on the Shah. Having post-revolutionary Iran and Iraq slaugher each other throughout the 1980s was indeed no negative "Western" outcome.
Thanks! Gives a far fuller picture than most news sources.
And another example of what a Multipolar world looks like?
That they could penetrate Israeli defenses & create a gap in Iron Dome was fiendishly clever. I also heard that drones were used against the armor. Fallout from Ukraine & the Azeris?
Israel has been so obsessed with the Court battle that defense seems to have taken a back seat. A real debacle!
I’m missing what Hamas would achieve with this. It looks more as a sacrifice of Hamas(Palestine) for “higher” purposes of wider conflict in the Middle East between Israel(West) and Arab world
And I have one question, were there in the past similar atrocities done by Israelis/IDF as we saw yesterday by Palestinians?
Run out of space to explain that.... (there's a limit in total size of every of articles posted on the Substack).
My _guess_ is that Hamas is aiming for a similar effect like the one achieved by Egypt in 1973: shaking the Israelis down from their ivory tower - into serious negotiations.
>> Were there in the past similar atrocities done by Israelis/IDF as we saw yesterday by Palestinians?
Tragically, they're countless - and not limited to Palestine. Over the time the IDF has exterminated entire villages in (in chronological order) Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon just for example.
My _guess_ is that Hamas is aiming for a similar effect like the one achieved by Egypt in 1973: shaking the Israelis down from their ivory tower - into serious negotiations.
But negotiations to what end? What's the goal here? Freeing prisoners? What does that matter? The Mosque in E. Jerusalem? How does a change there really benefit people in Gaza?
Hard to see a realistic goal here, if Hamas even has one. Which they probably dont.
I think at this point every living people in the Gaza strip have a relative killed by the IDF. So if they wanted to negotiate something, is still very good.
Lifting the blockade, just for the start. And yes, exchanging some of 5,000+ Palestinian prisoners held in Israel for years.
Is that unrealistic?
Well, as of 5 October 1973, it was entirely unrealistic for Israel to withdraw from Sinai. And, even 20 days and nearly 3,000 Israeli KIA later, the Israelis were still claiming a 'victory'... (indeed, they remain insistent on such theories until this very day).
I suppose eventually some sort of negotiations happen for the prisoners but maybe not for years. As far as anything big, I just don't think Hamas is capable of doing a real deal.
Didn't Bill Clinton get close and Arafat couldn't bring himself to do a deal? I'll have to look that up. I know he blamed Arafat.
When any serious Israel - Palestinian negotiations could be made in the past, extremist form either side rose violence and that was the end of any talks.
So, I worry it's the same story again. Killing civilians in their homes blocks serious negotiations on Israeli side and Hamas is aware of that.
As I understand it (OK, as Tom Friedman explained it) Hamas' big demand was for more work permits to work in Israel. Hard to see that this will help that cause much.
Hamas must have the worst PR people in the world. If they had refrained from murdering, raping and kidnapping (and then filming it. WTF?) the world's reaction would be very different.
Hard to know where this goes in the long run but I'd be surprised if it works out the wat Hamas leaders want. Israel isn't the only country that barricades in the Gaza Strip.
Hard to see Natanyahu surviving this though, for obvious reasons.
I guess neither Hamas nor Nethanyanu will get what they want. There will be more blood, more acts of terrorism, more figthing. Israel will probably win If this is a question of neutralising the enemy, but neither side will reduce the others will to fight. At least not the leaders. The civilian populace is probably already exchausted. Personally I also think Hamas is desperate, because they are getting less and less important. And honestly the situation was/is more and more difficult for the Palestinians with Nethanayu in charge.
Again surprised with your work (and heartfelt thanks for it!) The updates are delivered like a cascade. I’m concerned with how this “offensive” may finish.
Of course there is now rhetorical saber rattling from all sides, which is at the same time very vague. Such statements as Hezbollah is on the side of Hamas and declares war on Israel if they invade Gaza, the Taliban want to cross several countries to conquer Jerusalem, Iran is already celebrating the impending victory, Israel will clear the Gaza Strip of all terrorists, etc .
You know the mentality there much better than I and many other readers. Is it more likely that the conflict will continue with this intensity or escalate even more (which all sides seem to be keen on but no one wants to throw the first stone) or will it calm down in the next few days so that only a "few" rockets from Gaza and jets from Israel fly every day and the world public can push this conflict aside again?
Had a chat with somebody who might know, earlier today. He said over 1,000; meanwhile, I would say 'many more'.
Foremost: regardless of some Israeli media reports, not one of breaches in the fence has been reached and sealed again. Thus, additional militants are certainly flowing into Israel.
Yup. And the fighting is still raging well inside Israel, all the way from Sderot in the north, to Ofakim, and down to Keren Shalom... AFAIK, only Re'im was really recovered and secured by the IDF so far.
Chemical Warfare Agent such yperite or sarin or radiological material. These menace could be used to stop Israeli attack after Iron Dome had demostrated its limits
I strongly doubt Hamas has the know-how and technical means to produce anything of that kind: even all the claims about 'Syrian Jihadists' possessing and deploying CWs have proven to be a hoax - and they've had the know-know, and the means.
Alone storing chemical weapons is anything else than easy: using them for military purposes - a magnitude harder.
It war referred to me that is some evidence in OSINT that in Syria years ago there is know how in manifacturing at least artillery shells for CWA (chemical warfare agents) . For sure not syntesis but reusing avaliable CWA from old stocks and I agree that is extremely dangerous for a not expert and well trained. During Saddam Hussein chemical program an enormous number of technical personell died for work accident. THanks for answer and best regards
Of course there is lots of know how in Syria - but all the production facilities, storage sites, and means of deployment were always in Assadist hands. But, that's the Assadist regime - which has also deployed CWs over 300 times.
Thanks for the update. Lots of important details. Like the instructions to shoot civilians. Terrorism indeed. Of course terrorism can be conducted by both sides.
Mein lieber....Wieauchimer....
es ist noch (relativ) früh am Morgen und ich trinke meine erste Tasse Cappuccino, und rauche meine erste Camel.
Daher bin ich noch friedlich und werde Ihrem unsinnigen Versuch der Online-Telepathie einfach ignorieren.
Nächstes Mal versuchen Sie es mit KOMMUNIKATION anstatt Rätselraten. Kommunikation besteht daraus, dass Sie Fragen stellen, und ich antworte, und ich Fragen stelle, und Sie antworten. Dann wissen wir beide was der andere denkt, und brauchen nicht Rätselraten.
Also, lernen Sie zu kommunizieren.
Sollten Sie davon absehen, werde ich Sie einfach ignorieren - höchstens Sie irgendwann wg. Mobbing melden und dann blocken.
Oh, zuerst Online-Telepathie, dann auch noch Online-Beratung?
Sind sie sowas wie 'all-in Angebot'....?
....und wie originell....
Kommen Sie nie wieder auf die Idee mir irgendwas 'zu bedenken' zu geben, ohne sich - zuerst - über meine Standpunkte zu informieren. Denn: Sie haben keinen Schimmer von meinen Standpunkten und somit haben Sie überhaupt kein Recht mich zu belehren.
Und das war's. So lange Sie nicht lernen zu kommunizieren, gibt's zwischen uns nix zu besprechen.
That may be similar to Hitler's dilemma: first he used the aggressive "superhuman" rhetoric to mobilize his nation and stay in power, then he had to initiate the full-scale war to stay in power because his rhetoric started to rule the country on its own.
Definitely so.
Tragically - and while this is nothing like an 'agreement' with all the bestialities committed by Hamas yesterday - one shouldn't forget the Hezbollah's experience of 2006. Hamas learned a lot from that, and switched its tactics from 'winning through not losing' to 'maximum damage, regardless the cost'.
In this regards, it cannot be denied that Netanyahu and his extremists have left them absolutely no other options.
As if they have a choice or a saying in matter , Israelis want their land but they don't want or like them and decided their fate for them long ago, but Palestinians lack the good manners to roll on thier back and die in silence and will die for lands .
Yeah right Israelis hold the Arabs best interest at heart , this is joke of the year
No amount of snake charming can smother the truth of the Israelis being genocidal occupiers
Accept defeat and try to build a better future. Could be a good idea, but how should the Palestinians get any acceptance from Israel? The settler movement continues to Grab land on the West bank. Within Israel the Arabic minority of Israel citizens looses their Rights and their homes continuously.. ar the moment how should the Palestinian get any agreement with Israel? Israel does not seem to stop. Maybe a total unconditional surrender and giving all to Israel would stop it, but... I think there is a major problem here with peace is that Neither side really wants it. At least not those in power.
Thank you for the answer. It needs a replay, or rather three. The first is what I agree on in your answer, the Second is what I diagree on and the Third is what you are ignoring.
Agree: Taking Israel of the map is something that should be dropped. It is nit a good basis for negotiation, it is not a good goal, it ignores the fact that Israel is a state, no matter its orginins. We cannot and shoul nit deny that fact. But, remember that If we accept that Israel is a state it can certainly also be an occupation state. Actually that is inherent in the «occupation state». But, agree, this should be dropped in the charter.
Disagree or at least modify. Drop the figthing... yes but,,, Palestine tried to negotiate via PLO. Got the Oslo Agreement, whivh for a lot of reasons where not succesfull... but they did try, very unsure what that got them. They will loose you say, that is probably right, but for the Palestinians in the Gaza it doesnt really matter any more. They have nothing left to loose. They live in a blocade on the fiftenteeth year, they have no future.. yes, they will loose this round, definetly at it will cost them a lot. Even more because of their behaviour now (war crimes/ terrorism etc). And they will loose the round after that... but they only need to win once. Sooner or later Israel will either break down internally; economically or socially. (If Hamas had waited longer what would have happened to the schisms inside Israel. Hamas murdering rampage has closed those rifts. They will stay closed fir years, but not for ever.
Ignored: You are conviently ignoring the ongoing land grabbing conducted by the settler movement and effectively sanctioned by the Israeli state. This is not something that happened 80 years ago. The Palestinians see it. Now, So how shall they build a common future now with one side stealing their resources? And walling them in, and for the Arabs that are Israel citizens treating them like Second class citizens. The Arab Israelians does not have the same right and duties as the Jewish Israelians do they? I have seen Israelians Jews stating the situation is now Apartheid. How should a surrender by Palestinians in Gaza enable them to build a better future?
I think you are putting far too much responsibility on the Palestinians and totally ignoring the Israeli culpability. But let me also be clear, while I can understand the desperation of the Palestinians this cannot be used as excuses for murdering civilians and taking them hostages. But I am very much afraid that IDF now will committ their own on the Palestinans. Thus hatred doth breed.
How the Palestinians are supposed to build a better future? If they accept the Israeli occupation, what are their options? Israel accepting them as equal citizen is simply a day dream. The only way to prosper w/o violence I see is trying to individually relocate to other countries and forget that they were Palestinian. And if that happens, that will mean that Israel has been able to reverse the demography completely which they have been trying to achieve from (and before) the time of their creation.
If you don't know that Israel is an occupation, then take a look at the map of Israel and Palestine from 1948 to this day. Even after that if you don't get how Israel is an occupation, then I guess there is no point in discussing it any further.
And about the Arabs being an equal citizen: well, Arabs who live in Israel can say better. But from the news, it is obvious that they are treated as second class citizens. Here are some articles about this:
1) [Haaretz](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2023-05-07/ty-article/.highlight/israeli-arabs-are-second-class-citizens-and-its-costing-their-lives/00000187-f67a-d15f-a997-ff7e4b800000)
2) [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/world/middleeast/israel-law-jews-arabic.html)
Didn't really 'miss' that, but left it out: from my POV, that's within realms of 'could be/would be/should be'.
It might be long since I run into anybody from Hamas (some 20 or so years, and then because I was trying to research about the PLO's 'Force 17', its stillborn air force), but - and by best will - I would not know about Tehran exercising any kind of 'executive control' of the gang.
....not that the IRGC wouldn't like to have it. But, it simply has none.
Yes, thanks, I know.
Iranian 'endorsement' is like a 'like' on Facebook or Twitter/X.
The IRGC-QF is involved with the Houthis in Yemen. Yes, sure. Not since the start fo that uprising, and 'not really' at any important levels before around 2015. But, it is.
Even more so, the IRGC-QF is involved with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and similar organisations in Syria (Liwa al-Qods, 4th Armoured Division etc., for example), and Iraq (Harakat Hezbollah). No doubt about this.
The IRGC - and thus Tehran - is bragging with its support for Palestinians. And, no doubt, it maintained close ties to the PLO, right since the IRGC's inception, back in around 1976-1977.
But, the IRGC - and thus Tehran - does not have executive control over Hamas. It can't do the same it did with Hezbollah regarding Syria in November 2011: order it, 'go and fight there'.
There is an ideological difference between Hezb and Hamas. Hezb is shia which allows Iran to exert influence while Hamas is Sunni.
Yesno.
Yes, originally, Hezbollah was about being a Shi'a and defending the Shi'a population of Lebanon - with Iran's support. However, such times are long since over: regardless what their PRBS is claiming, they're hand-picking 'brains', no religious fanatics. Foremost: the are under directl control of Tehran. If Tehran says 'hop', Hezbollah has to hop, and in a big loop.
Hamas' ideology is based on that of the Muslim Brotherhood. As such, sure, 'incompatible' with the IRGC and Hezbollah. It is supported by Iranian money and arms, but Tehran has no direct control over it: it can't order it when and where to do what.
People make all sorts of claims, no doubt there will be solid evidence in the future of Iranian support, or not.
Hezbollah has attacked Israel and they are backed by Iran so this is certainly a form of support.
Iran is simply the 'usual suspect'.
Qatar is 'ah, our friends'. Especially so in the case of the British and Americans.
I was always curious, how is that Iran - Hamas support when Iranians are shia and Hamas (Palestinians) are suni muslims and they do not like to walk hand in hand usually.
Comes from the fact that back in the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran began supporting the Lebanese Shi'a, when thousands of these were massacred by Israeli air strikes and artillery shelling. And with the Shah's help came preachers from Qom, and so the Lebanese Shi'a began receiving stipends in Iran.
....which, eventually, led to the establishment of what became the Hezbollah, too...
....before soon, some obscure group of people gravitating around certain Ayatollah Khomeini approached the PLO for provision of military training. Palestinians were skeptical, but eventually agreed. One of the 20 people they've trained in 1976-1977, was Khomeini's son. The other 18-19 went on to help Khomeini establish himself in power in the course of a civil war that erupted in Iran once the Shah was forced to leave the country: they became the Pasdaran (guardians of the quasi-clerical regime in Tehran) and, in January 1981, were reorganised into the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). A heavily armed body standing above all the laws in Tehran ('acting in the name of God'), which then established itself in control of the state and the entire economy, and began following the strategy of 'return to Jerusalem'...
...and so a strategic alliance was born...
....and when then the Maronite Christians hijacked and bestially tortured the de-facto Iranian ambassador to Lebanon (before dumping his mutilated body away), the IRGC assumed this was an act at least sanctioned by Israel. And so an undeclared war began, too...
Recommended read: The secret War with Iran (https://www.amazon.com/Secret-War-Iran-Clandestine-Dangerous/dp/1416577009.....another one by an Israeli - probably because I'm so [quote] 'obsessed with impressing the Arab version of events upon everybody'... ;-) )
Very interesting, I had absolutely no idea that the Iranian Hezbollah relationship pre-dated the revolution! Sort of throws a new and ambivalent (from a "Western perspective") light on the Shah. Having post-revolutionary Iran and Iraq slaugher each other throughout the 1980s was indeed no negative "Western" outcome.
Thanks! Gives a far fuller picture than most news sources.
And another example of what a Multipolar world looks like?
That they could penetrate Israeli defenses & create a gap in Iron Dome was fiendishly clever. I also heard that drones were used against the armor. Fallout from Ukraine & the Azeris?
Israel has been so obsessed with the Court battle that defense seems to have taken a back seat. A real debacle!
I’m missing what Hamas would achieve with this. It looks more as a sacrifice of Hamas(Palestine) for “higher” purposes of wider conflict in the Middle East between Israel(West) and Arab world
And I have one question, were there in the past similar atrocities done by Israelis/IDF as we saw yesterday by Palestinians?
Run out of space to explain that.... (there's a limit in total size of every of articles posted on the Substack).
My _guess_ is that Hamas is aiming for a similar effect like the one achieved by Egypt in 1973: shaking the Israelis down from their ivory tower - into serious negotiations.
>> Were there in the past similar atrocities done by Israelis/IDF as we saw yesterday by Palestinians?
Tragically, they're countless - and not limited to Palestine. Over the time the IDF has exterminated entire villages in (in chronological order) Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon just for example.
Извините за эгоистичный вопрос: как это отразится на Украине?
No problem (and nope, that's no 'selfish' question).
The answer is: not at all. Israel doesn't need US for ammunition supply, just for example.
Tom. Thanks for your effort presenting facts, straight talk, enlightening. Am lost, what is HAMAS' motive?
My _guess_ is that Hamas is aiming for a similar effect like the one achieved by Egypt in 1973: shaking the Israelis down from their ivory tower - into serious negotiations.
But negotiations to what end? What's the goal here? Freeing prisoners? What does that matter? The Mosque in E. Jerusalem? How does a change there really benefit people in Gaza?
Hard to see a realistic goal here, if Hamas even has one. Which they probably dont.
I think at this point every living people in the Gaza strip have a relative killed by the IDF. So if they wanted to negotiate something, is still very good.
I have no idea what you mean.
Lifting the blockade, just for the start. And yes, exchanging some of 5,000+ Palestinian prisoners held in Israel for years.
Is that unrealistic?
Well, as of 5 October 1973, it was entirely unrealistic for Israel to withdraw from Sinai. And, even 20 days and nearly 3,000 Israeli KIA later, the Israelis were still claiming a 'victory'... (indeed, they remain insistent on such theories until this very day).
I suppose eventually some sort of negotiations happen for the prisoners but maybe not for years. As far as anything big, I just don't think Hamas is capable of doing a real deal.
Didn't Bill Clinton get close and Arafat couldn't bring himself to do a deal? I'll have to look that up. I know he blamed Arafat.
When any serious Israel - Palestinian negotiations could be made in the past, extremist form either side rose violence and that was the end of any talks.
So, I worry it's the same story again. Killing civilians in their homes blocks serious negotiations on Israeli side and Hamas is aware of that.
Hope, that I am wrong this time.
As I understand it (OK, as Tom Friedman explained it) Hamas' big demand was for more work permits to work in Israel. Hard to see that this will help that cause much.
Hamas must have the worst PR people in the world. If they had refrained from murdering, raping and kidnapping (and then filming it. WTF?) the world's reaction would be very different.
Hard to know where this goes in the long run but I'd be surprised if it works out the wat Hamas leaders want. Israel isn't the only country that barricades in the Gaza Strip.
Hard to see Natanyahu surviving this though, for obvious reasons.
Tom Conroy
I guess neither Hamas nor Nethanyanu will get what they want. There will be more blood, more acts of terrorism, more figthing. Israel will probably win If this is a question of neutralising the enemy, but neither side will reduce the others will to fight. At least not the leaders. The civilian populace is probably already exchausted. Personally I also think Hamas is desperate, because they are getting less and less important. And honestly the situation was/is more and more difficult for the Palestinians with Nethanayu in charge.
Nethanyahu already used the attack to suppress the political opposition in Israel. He earns benefits.
Yes, but the attacks happened on his watch. So lets see how this plays out.
Again surprised with your work (and heartfelt thanks for it!) The updates are delivered like a cascade. I’m concerned with how this “offensive” may finish.
Of course there is now rhetorical saber rattling from all sides, which is at the same time very vague. Such statements as Hezbollah is on the side of Hamas and declares war on Israel if they invade Gaza, the Taliban want to cross several countries to conquer Jerusalem, Iran is already celebrating the impending victory, Israel will clear the Gaza Strip of all terrorists, etc .
You know the mentality there much better than I and many other readers. Is it more likely that the conflict will continue with this intensity or escalate even more (which all sides seem to be keen on but no one wants to throw the first stone) or will it calm down in the next few days so that only a "few" rockets from Gaza and jets from Israel fly every day and the world public can push this conflict aside again?
The number of Israeli dead is up to 600 and climbing.
I think it obvious that a lot more than 250 terrorists were involved in the attack given this mornings reports. More likely 1000s.
Indeed: far more.
Had a chat with somebody who might know, earlier today. He said over 1,000; meanwhile, I would say 'many more'.
Foremost: regardless of some Israeli media reports, not one of breaches in the fence has been reached and sealed again. Thus, additional militants are certainly flowing into Israel.
Yup. And the fighting is still raging well inside Israel, all the way from Sderot in the north, to Ofakim, and down to Keren Shalom... AFAIK, only Re'im was really recovered and secured by the IDF so far.
According to you is it possible a CBRN attack with rockets, if not now in next weeks?
Sorry, what do you mean with CBRN?
Chemical Warfare Agent such yperite or sarin or radiological material. These menace could be used to stop Israeli attack after Iron Dome had demostrated its limits
I strongly doubt Hamas has the know-how and technical means to produce anything of that kind: even all the claims about 'Syrian Jihadists' possessing and deploying CWs have proven to be a hoax - and they've had the know-know, and the means.
Alone storing chemical weapons is anything else than easy: using them for military purposes - a magnitude harder.
It war referred to me that is some evidence in OSINT that in Syria years ago there is know how in manifacturing at least artillery shells for CWA (chemical warfare agents) . For sure not syntesis but reusing avaliable CWA from old stocks and I agree that is extremely dangerous for a not expert and well trained. During Saddam Hussein chemical program an enormous number of technical personell died for work accident. THanks for answer and best regards
Of course there is lots of know how in Syria - but all the production facilities, storage sites, and means of deployment were always in Assadist hands. But, that's the Assadist regime - which has also deployed CWs over 300 times.
Nobody else.
Good news. Thanks
Thanks for the update. Lots of important details. Like the instructions to shoot civilians. Terrorism indeed. Of course terrorism can be conducted by both sides.
My Russian associates are cheering. They think this will be the end of western support for Ukraine.
Tell them to keep on daydreaming.
Very good summary. The change from militant to terrorist at exactly this point is very well chosen.