Israel/Palestine, 8 October 2023

Hello Everybody!

Here a review of what was going on in this conflict as of yesterday and the last night.

I’m warning, up front, that any additional personal attacks – whether via the commentary here on the blog, or via e-mails or else – are all going to be reported and/or blocked, without any kind of further warnings. If you can’t discuss this topic in reasonable fashion, or don’t like what are you going to read here, go and spread your vitriol somewhere else.

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Up front, what happened in Israel/Palestine yesterday was nothing that came as a ‘big surprise’, actually: if at all, I’m merely surprised it happened only yesterday – and not already months earlier. Moreover, and as explained in the feature here, it didn’t start ‘yesterday’, but over 100 years ago. Therefore, there was no ‘peace’: the war is going on all the time. This is ‘merely another episode’.

Reasons for this ‘round’ is that the Gaza Strip is under an Israeli (and Egyptian) blockade since 2007, when Hamas assumed power following elections, but refused to stop violent actions against Israel. The (Israeli) blockade is cited by Hamas as one of principal reasons for this operation. Another cited reason is that (at least) since….well at least since May of the last and April of this year, extremist Zionist settlers are running a campaign of massive provocations of the Palestinians in the Jerusalem/West Bank area in particular. Since April this year, they have repeatedly stormed and desecrated the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, provoking the so-called ‘al-Aqsa Clashes’. Ever since, this campaign is ranging from harassment and molesting of any Arabs, Christians, or foreigners who are ‘obviously no Jews’, on the streets of Jerusalem in particular, via continuous attacks and ambushes of Palestinians at different points in the West Bank, attacks and looting of Palestinian property, to man-hunts and lynching of Palestinians living in Israel…

Mind: between 1 January and 6 October this year, over 240 Palestinians were killed by the Israelis. Hundreds were detained and disappeared into Israeli jails. All were ‘terrorists’, of course…

I’ve linked just a few videos documenting behaviour of the Zionists in question: if you give it a try, you can easily find hundreds all over the social media. This is why I say: the only ‘surprise’ in this affair is that it was only yesterday the Palestinians launched their attack. In no way should this be (mis)understood as any kind of ‘support’ for actions of any of involved parties (on the contrary!).

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Backgrounds and related Questions

Several have asked questions in style of ‘how could this happen?’ ‘How could Hamas take Israel – and its intelligence- and security services so much by surprise, where these are controlling the Gaza Strip’…?

The essence of answers is that the Hamas repeated much of Egyptian performance from the 1971-1973 period, prior to the Egyptian attack over the Suez Canal of 6 October 1973 - which took the Israelis completely by surprise.

See: tight security about planning, with only a handful of top commanders within the information-loop. Repeated military exercises, to improve the readiness of own troops – but: also lull the enemy into the false feeling of security. Because, after, say, 10, 15, 20 days of, ‘ah, they’re just exercising….again’, the Israeli alertness is decreasing – just like that of anybody else.

Bottom line: yes, Israel would like to have, but nope, Israel does not have ‘total control’ over the Gaza Strip. Not even Hamas has it. And despite all the popular mythology, and as offensive it is likely to sound to others, the Israelis are no ‘God’s hand-picked supermen’, but just the same people like anybody else. Unsurprisingly, they’re making mistakes, and they can be lulled into carelessness.

Q: How comes the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip – blocked by both Israel and Egypt – can make 5,000 rockets to fire at Israel?

A: This is a story going on for some 20 years. Essentially, they’re smuggling in – primarily via Egypt – all the necessary materials, and manufacturing them ‘at home’. Mostly in outright ‘factories’ constructed inside an extensive labyrinth of underground tunnels under the Gaza Strip. Sure, Israel has time and again targeted that tunnel system, and claimed huge successes in this regards (for example: in May 2021). Think, the attack from yesterday is making the actual limits of that success more than obvious.

Q: Why did the Palestinians attack on 7 October 2023?

A: By side such ridiculous claims like ‘it was Putin’s birthday, and Palestinians are Putiin’s friends’: yes, ‘traditionally’, the USSR was the primary source of arms and financial support - but for the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. That was back in the 1970s and 1980s (indeed, around the same time Israel helped create Hamas as Islamic extremist opposition to the secular PLO). Even if its political leader met Lavrov, Hamas has no serious links to the Russian Federation, and – contrary to Netanyahu, who is Putin’s close friend and business partner, and using his connections to Moscow to gain popularity between extremist Zionist settlers from Russia – Palestinians neither know about, nor care about Putin’s birthday. Similarly, while Tehran is boasting with its support for Hamas, this is extremely limited.

Actually, the primary sponsor of the Hamas is Qatar. In a complex deal involving multiple Israeli banks – which are handsomely earning from this business – Doha is sponsoring the Gaza Strip with over US$100 million a year (think to recall the exact sum to be much higher; almost double that; but let’s remain on the conservative side). Sure, most of this is spent to pay for supply of electricity, water, and food from Israel, but…. have no doubts: there’s enough left to re-arm Hamas.

The reason why Hamas attacked yesterday is that it was Simchat Torah: a public holiday in Israel. Means: the entire country and its armed forces were on one of lowest levels of alertness. Public transportation out of business. Mind that the mass of Israel Defence Force (IDF) troops are drafted teenagers. As disinterested in military service as any modem-day teenagers in all of the West. Thus, it’s unsurprising to hear that many of IDF guards were not at their positions, were asleep or even alcoholised.

Furthermore, some Israelis are claiming that – apparently on Netanyahu’s wish/order – much of the active IDF was re-deployed away from the Gaza Strip, into the West Bank: to protect ongoing provocations by extremist Zionists. Not sure about this yet.

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Planning & Preparations

Codenamed al-Aqsa Flood, this operation was planned by a hand-picked group of top Hamas and Qassam officials, led by Mohammad Dief and Yahya Sinwar – and you can bet your annual income they’ve had not only approval from top political leadership of Hamas, but from Doha, i.e. Qatar, too.

The reason is what I’ve stated above: that Qatar is Hamas’ primary sponsor (yes, I know that Tehran is claiming to be the biggest supporter of Palestinian sovereignty and their struggle for freedom, and have no doubts that both Israel and the West are particularly horny to report all kinds of links between the Hamas, IRGC, and Moscow – but, that’s just another of so much of mythology in this regards).

The operation was kept secret through keeping everybody else outside the information loop. It was prepared in form of dozens of military exercises simulating breaching the fences around the Gaza. Militants were trained, very intensively, though not informed about the reason for this training.

I’ve got no doubt that the Israelis – foremost the AMAN, the Israeli military intelligence – has ‘seen/observed’ all of these exercises. Indeed: that it was closely monitoring them. However, because of the tight security – i.e. because they lack informants within the top ranks of Hamas – AMAN and other of Israeli security services seem to have concluded something like that the exercises were a part of ongoing and psychological warfare. Perhaps aiming to intimidate Israel, perhaps to obtain additional support from Qatar? I do not know: this is on the responsible Israeli officials to explain.

Execution

The Operation began with what could be described as ‘primitive SEAD’ (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences). As first, the Qassam Brigades assaulted and overrun the IDF base protecting the Erez checkpoint, north of Bayt Hanun (northern Gaza Strip). That’s one of major crossings from the Gaza Strip to Israel and the other way around. Not sure about all the details, but from there the Qassam Brigades rushed to an Iron Dome surface-to-air missile (SAM) -site of the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF), somewhere in the Sderot area (yes, the IDF is constructing its military bases next to municipalities, just like everybody else): this was quickly overrun, thus creating a gap in the Israeli air defences around the Gaza Strip. That’s why ‘primitive SEAD’.

As soon as the ‘way was free’, a barrage of at least 500 rockets was unleashed, targeting all of Israel from the Sderot and Beersheba area up to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. As far as I can assess, and ‘usually’, the barrage caused significant damage on numerous homes, and other kind of private property. Air traffic at the Lod/Ben Gurion International Airport was interrupted for hours.

But, and foremost…

Simultaneously with attack on Erez, the Qassam Brigades attacked the IDF base in Nahal Oz (is another crossing, closed since 2010). Through a combination of ATGM-strikes, drone-strikes, and quick special forces assaults, the militants destroyed and/or captured four Merkava Mk.IV main battle tanks, one or two heavy infantry fighting vehicles, at least three M113 armoured personnel carriers, and killed or captured up to 20 IDF troops.

The fence was breached in at least two or three additional spots, but I’m not yet sure where. It seems the IDF base at Keren Shalom (southernmost crossing from the Gaza Strip to Israel) was attacked. This is where the Qassam Brigades claims to have overrun a base of the Nahal Brigade and – between others – killed its commander, Lieutenant-Colonel Yonatan Steinberg. Found no other details on the fighting there, but: Hamas subsequently reported the capture of General Nimrod Aloni, the ‘Gaza Division Commander’ (see photo below), which would indicate they’ve overrun at least a part of the local IDF headquarters.

At this point, I’m ‘switching’ from ‘militant’ to ‘terrorist’ because for me, anybody intentionally/knowingly attacking and/or endangering civilians – no matter if member of official or unofficial armed formations, or ‘just some civilian volunteer’ – is a terrorist.

Reason: having created at least two, possibly three or four breaches, the Qassam Brigades began rushing reinforcements into Israel. Each of terrorists involved received a pamphlet enticing him to move into Israel and continue attacking civilians and soldiers alike until either killed or captured.

Exact figure for their number remains unclear: most of Israeli sources are talking about ‘around 300’. Most were mounted on motorcycles, but some used pick-ups loaded with heavy machine guns, few MANPADs, and lots of ammunition, too.

Fanning out of the Gaza Strip, the terrorists shot up numerous civilian cars, killing their occupants – sometimes while clashing with the IDF. This video is showing at least five civilian cars (the complete version is showing also some 5-6 dead civilians), in front of an Israeli Merkava main battle tank (visible in the background and apparently abandoned).

In the north, a group of terrorists entered the Netiv Ha’Atzra settlement. AFAIK, once that group was defeated by the IDF and the police, 15 bodies of murdered civilians were discovered in their homes. I’m not sure if any have ranged all the way out to Kiryat Gat, but there are reports that the terrorists have killed the commander of the fire brigade of that place, and one of his firemen, too.

Further south-east, another group entered Sderot and – except for ransacking a number of private homes and murdering their owners– captured the local police station. As of this morning, the IDF was still busy mopping-up the town, and storming the station with support of a bulldozer.

One of pick-ups of the Qassam Brigades/Hamas, as seen on the streets of Sderot, yesterday.

A Merkava Mk. IV MBT of the IDF, as seen on the streets of Sderot, early this morning.

A bulldozer of the IDF, seen while in the process of trying to breach into a police station of Sderot, early this morning.

Further south, down the fence around the Gaza, the terrorists are known to have infiltrated Mefalsim, Kfar Aza, Sa’ad, Alumim, Zimrat, Kfar Maimon and to have entered northern and western side of Netivot.

One group of terrorists attacked the Festival for Peace set up in Kibbutz Re’im, several kilometres west/south-west of Netivot. The militants opened fire killing dozens of men, while taking an (unknown, at least to me) number of women away. This is where videos were taken showing hundreds running away.

Further south, the terrorists infiltrated Kisufim, Ein HasSholasha, Nirim, Nir Oz, Magen, Ein HaBsor, Urim, Patish – and to have reached….well, from what I know, they were stopped somewhere on the western side of the perimeter of the huge Hatzerim Air Base, south of Ofakim. As usually, the Israelis would only say they have infiltrated the western side of Ofakim.

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In total, over 5,000 rockets were reported as fired at by the noon of 7 October, which is a particularly massive barrage (at earlier times, the Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) demonstrated a capability to sustain a rate of 300-500 rockets a day).

Now mind the following: official Israel is insistent that the rocket fire is ‘indiscriminate against civilians’. This line is supported by photographs and videos of the damage from Israel, for example, from the Barzilai Medical Center.

However, mind that

a)       Israelis are not interested in showing hits on their military facilities: on the contrary, they are interested in demonstrating the ‘indiscriminate rocket fire against civilians’, and

b)      no material showing hits on military facilities in Israel can be released without permission from the Israeli military censors (controlled by AMAN).

While there is no doubt that the mass of rockets fired by Palestinian militants is striking ‘whatever is in their way’ – and thus plenty of civilian objects – as explained already during the last (significant) round of this kind of fighting between Israel and Palestinians, back in May 2021, the Hamas and the PIJ actually do try to hit main bases of the IDF – like air bases, for example – and objects with ‘dual purposes’, like powerplants, or the Lod/Ben Gurion International Airport. I drew this map to illustrate this, back in May 2021:

The IASF reacted with the first series of air strikes on the Gaza Strip within an hour of the initial Hamas attack. Between others, it targeted homes of top Hamas officials, the Palestine Tower on ash-Shuhadaa Street, the HQ of Shehab News, a building of Qatari charity, two (well-known) hospitals and over 100 other ‘aiming points’ around the Gaza Strip. Some 6-7 additional waves of air strikes were flown ever since, and the Gaza Strip is under continuous attacks of Israeli attack helicopters. This is how comes that Hamas claimed to have hit four Israeli helicopters by its MANPADs. AFAIK, none was shot down.

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As of early this morning, there was still fighting between scattered terrorists of Hamas, the IDF, and other Israeli security services in Ashkelon, in Be’reri, and in Sderot. Hamas and the PIJ also continued firing rockets at Israel throughout the night. Around 22.00hrs local time, air raid alerts were sounded from the areas immediately north of the Gaza Strip to Tel Aviv, and powerful detonations were heard in the Jerusalem area.

As of this morning, the Israeli death toll rose to over 150.

Already as of yesterday noon, the Palestinian death toll was at 232 killed and over 1,690 wounded: most of these due to vicious Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip.

Late the last night, Abu Obeida, Hamas spokesperson, announced that he’s got ‘good news for our prisoners (in Israel)’, because the Qassam Brigades have ‘dozens of captured officers and soldiers in their hands, and they have been secured in safe places and resistance tunnels’. Means, the Hamas appears to intend using Israeli prisoners and hostages for an exchange. A total number of captured IDF troops and abducted civilians is reportedly at around 50.

Finally, this morning, there was a mortar attack from Lebanon, targeting one of Israeli ‘observation-posts’ in the north of the country (see: a major electronic-warfare- and signals-intelligence facility).

That’s about that for the time being. Tragically, much more is near-certain to follow…