Hello everybody! In the light of experiences with ‘reactions’ to my assessments of the last few days, I feel forced to introduce ‘special rules’ for my blog. Up front: I’ll remain on the cool and factual side, and try to focus on geo-strategic- and military issues.
A really “food for thought” little essay your update today.
Something I feel it’s necessary to remind here in good ole Western Countries. But, hey, if we’re in this pace from 1920s (almost), what can be wrong?
Like the Italians putting a David’s Star illuminated on Tito’s Arch (yes, the same Tito who take and sacked Jerusalem, demolished the Old Temple and started forced diaspora. I think Italy have aplenty Triumph Archs, but Tito’s one look great on photos, you know).
Or the Spanish government vicepresident, for which Hamas isn’t a terrorist organization (remember, she is a caviar-communist, our name for pseudo leftists that only want jet set living standards for herselves...)
A great opportunity for take the public attention from Ukraine, and saving all the ammo needed there...
My thanks for to remain true and stuck to your guns, Tom.
Point 8.) I think USA would not striking the Hezbollah/IRGC in Lebanon/Syria unless they very escalate the situation. As you have written, Iran do not intent to escalate the situation. And I strongly doubt Israel want to fight on two fronts now. They exchange just "ordinary" rockets/shells/bombs amount as usual.
If the IDF are demanding evacuation of Gaza civilians to the south of the Wadi Gaza, that looks very much like a permanently defensible position for a land grab.
Yeah right. Like Medvedev or Zhironovsky, they have their ultra-nationalistic carnival-barkers over there to move the Overton window towards extremism.
The killing of a Reuters journalist and crippling of another, apparently by an IDF helicopter today, and the harassment of a BBC crew is notable. The UK media is surprisingly critical in tone of "Israel's response." Maybe Netanyahu is becoming Israel's MBS and it's been decreed from on high that the West does not, in fact, back Israel to the hilt on this. Or maybe the media have just grown a spine. Let's hope Netanyahu doesn't go all-out to bring Iran into the conflict and present America with a fait accompli
"At this point, I’m ‘switching’ from ‘militant’ to ‘terrorist’ because for me, anybody intentionally/knowingly attacking and/or endangering civilians – no matter if member of official or unofficial armed formations, or ‘just some civilian volunteer’ – is a terrorist.
Reason: having created at least two, possibly three or four breaches, the Qassam Brigades began rushing reinforcements into Israel. Each of terrorists involved received a pamphlet enticing him to move into Israel and continue attacking civilians and soldiers alike until either killed or captured."
Now, I've seen this captured Hamas document already yesterday in the morning:
Have obtained screen-grabs from multiple pages of it, and currently have these translated by two different contacts with Arabic as mother tongue, independently from each other. Unless I get his translation, I do not trust anything what the media says.
Reason: since 7 October, the media has 'excelled' in spreading lies, hatred, and propaganda, and thus has completely losts its credibility.
Of course, as soon as I get the translations, I intend to post the results.
- last page, POINT 7, is clearly issuing the orders to
'capture for negotiations'.
To CAPTURE, not to kill.
So, reports like the one you've linked above are.... sorry: another pile of PRBS-garbage (except the part with the Israelis being 'fascinated' with precision of the planning: this is what my contacts in Israel are confirming, too).
Overall, this is increasingly looking like Hamas planned a 'big-style hijack', but then lost control over a 'party' that was after a mass-murder.
....'but', now, 'of course', everybody is after 'destroying Hamas' - and thus it 'doesn't matter' if that means destruction and ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip.
What ever happened to the good old coinage "guerrilla" to describe the likes of Hamas I wonder. A little too neutral for either "side" perhaps. Anyway, consciously or not Hamas still operate according to Mao's theories of guerrilla warfare - and not some "senseless but devious" terroristic spirit.
The podcaster Bret Weinstein has an interesting interview on YouTube with an ex IDF intel person called Efrat Fenigson on Netanyahu's possible complicity.
This is slightly off topic, but I would not put wahabism and the Muslim Brotherhood in the same sentence. Wahabism is a religious movement taken over by a political force (dinasty), while the Muslim Brotherhood is clearly a political movement, that is a lot more neutral and flexible around religious issues than wahabism and more focused on politics and their version of anti-colonialism than religion. It is more like a playbook, than a sect or a religious organisation.
It does not mean that they don't use religion or specific rules of religion against competitors, but they are adapting to local conditions and their closeness to power. The local Muslim Brotherhood can be like the Taliban, or a charitable organization running a hospital and Quran study that lets in women without hijab depending the circumstances.
" Muslim Brotherhood " is a catch of all terms. At best it obtuse more than it helps understand anything. Frequently it is just wrong and pure fantasy. The word " Wahabism " is following the same trajectory but it is a battle I rather not start at all.
Because the original movement in Egypt was one of the main roots of the modern political islam and there are still large organizations, parties and movements associating themselves with MB, I think it is still relevant, but you are right, Western media rarely gives any context to its mentions and in that case you are right, it does not help with understanding what a connection to Muslim Brotherhood means.
But Northern Gaza must be a pretty big part of Gaza, I think I saw some estimates that 1 million people were asked to move. So they will have a hugh area, urban wise to bomb and attack. Not going to be easy.
Move to where? Whole of Gaza is already one of the most dense populated "Ghettos" (because that what it is in reality) of the world. Whoever thinks that moving half of the population from North to South is even a possibility lives in some La-La Wonderland and is eating magic mushrooms with Alice and the caterpillar.
well, based on todays News from the Norwegian Broadcasting service people are moving South. Not all will be able/willing to, but a lot are moving. To what they dont know, but they do know that If Israel kan drop leaflets, they can drop bombs. So many will try to move. How many ends up not moving I dont know, only that a lot of people are trying.
Imagine you are the governour of a 1 million people town and someone tells you to evacuate them within 24 hours and your only options are either the sea or your neighbour town where another 1 million people live. And all of that without water, food, gasoline or electricity and communication.
At least some western media try to broadcast some sense of reality, automatic english subtitles work well enough: https://youtu.be/JwzxGpWEWyM?t=581
I have no idea how this will work out, what I see is that Israel is warning people and some are flying. This seems to indicate that Israel will attack following Tom’s analysis of how they have done before. In my mind it will also be a very heavy bombing and shelling first. And of course this will result in killings.
Excellent article: well reasoned and based primarily on reasoning and on evidence, not on "wishful thinking". Please apply the same reasoning and writing skills to Ukraine-Russia war
Thanks for the update, sobering as it is. And it galls me to se Ursula von der Leyen rightly condemn Russia, but cheering on Israel. Yes, double standard at its finest/worst. Equally scary was the number of fighters on the Hamas side. I know you dont do prediction, but if tide numbers and your description of Israels forces are right I would be very very scared as an IDF general. This simply might not be doable. Personally, I not being much of a military man, would wait and starve (i got permission from Us and Eu). Gaza for a month, preparing and training my forces. But of course The Israelians want blood and revenge now. So they cant do that. And who knows how EU might react after a month of starvation. And those carriers out there will not be there forever. Hence attack now. Playing into Hamas hand.
Yes, that is true. But I think the starving option is too slow and kills too many. But letting them starve a little and stress a little ? Well, we will see what happens. And not like it one bit.
Oct 13, 2023·edited Oct 13, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
There are millions of Christians in India. Their growth has been little hindered, at least not directly. Japan is kind of unique in that it acted very early in the process, and its overall trajectory has been as one of the least-religiously interested (in any form) human societies in modern history, maybe even ever. Without the latter attribute, most of the population would probably have Christianized over the past 170 years.
Og yes, we have at least better aircrafts If nit better politics today, so clearly a new Photo is needed.
A really “food for thought” little essay your update today.
Something I feel it’s necessary to remind here in good ole Western Countries. But, hey, if we’re in this pace from 1920s (almost), what can be wrong?
Like the Italians putting a David’s Star illuminated on Tito’s Arch (yes, the same Tito who take and sacked Jerusalem, demolished the Old Temple and started forced diaspora. I think Italy have aplenty Triumph Archs, but Tito’s one look great on photos, you know).
Or the Spanish government vicepresident, for which Hamas isn’t a terrorist organization (remember, she is a caviar-communist, our name for pseudo leftists that only want jet set living standards for herselves...)
A great opportunity for take the public attention from Ukraine, and saving all the ammo needed there...
My thanks for to remain true and stuck to your guns, Tom.
Excellent article!
Point 8.) I think USA would not striking the Hezbollah/IRGC in Lebanon/Syria unless they very escalate the situation. As you have written, Iran do not intent to escalate the situation. And I strongly doubt Israel want to fight on two fronts now. They exchange just "ordinary" rockets/shells/bombs amount as usual.
Hello Tom,
thank You for the useful insight!
From what Israel has been saying lately, they try to push civilians from the Gaza city before starting the military operation.
If the fighting lasts for weeks, the Palestinian civilians will eventually flee the conflict zone, I assume.
How likely would You say it is, once the fighting subsides, that Israel would grab the land and plant settlers there?
Gauging by statements by such members of the Knesset like Rothman: '100% guaranteed'.
If the IDF are demanding evacuation of Gaza civilians to the south of the Wadi Gaza, that looks very much like a permanently defensible position for a land grab.
Rothman defined, '...until a Jewish child can walk entirely free in Gaza. If there would be Gaza...'
This one demands the deployment of 'Doomsday Weapon' against Gaza:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
That would be Yericho ICBM with thermonuclar warheads...
Yeah right. Like Medvedev or Zhironovsky, they have their ultra-nationalistic carnival-barkers over there to move the Overton window towards extremism.
The killing of a Reuters journalist and crippling of another, apparently by an IDF helicopter today, and the harassment of a BBC crew is notable. The UK media is surprisingly critical in tone of "Israel's response." Maybe Netanyahu is becoming Israel's MBS and it's been decreed from on high that the West does not, in fact, back Israel to the hilt on this. Or maybe the media have just grown a spine. Let's hope Netanyahu doesn't go all-out to bring Iran into the conflict and present America with a fait accompli
NBC reports that detailed plans were located on Hamas terrorists to "take hostages and kill as many you can"
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/top-secret-hamas-documents-show-terrorists-intentionally-targeted-elem-rcna120310
I'm not friends with you on FB, so I ask this here, based on your comment about these news: what do you think of these documents?
For the start, sorry, can't but request you to read carefully what I've posted in this regards on 8 October, https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/israelpalestine-8-october-202
Pay attention at the following passage:
"At this point, I’m ‘switching’ from ‘militant’ to ‘terrorist’ because for me, anybody intentionally/knowingly attacking and/or endangering civilians – no matter if member of official or unofficial armed formations, or ‘just some civilian volunteer’ – is a terrorist.
Reason: having created at least two, possibly three or four breaches, the Qassam Brigades began rushing reinforcements into Israel. Each of terrorists involved received a pamphlet enticing him to move into Israel and continue attacking civilians and soldiers alike until either killed or captured."
Now, I've seen this captured Hamas document already yesterday in the morning:
https://t.me/southfirstresponders/172
Have obtained screen-grabs from multiple pages of it, and currently have these translated by two different contacts with Arabic as mother tongue, independently from each other. Unless I get his translation, I do not trust anything what the media says.
Reason: since 7 October, the media has 'excelled' in spreading lies, hatred, and propaganda, and thus has completely losts its credibility.
Of course, as soon as I get the translations, I intend to post the results.
Something like 'preliminary update':
- last page, POINT 7, is clearly issuing the orders to
'capture for negotiations'.
To CAPTURE, not to kill.
So, reports like the one you've linked above are.... sorry: another pile of PRBS-garbage (except the part with the Israelis being 'fascinated' with precision of the planning: this is what my contacts in Israel are confirming, too).
Overall, this is increasingly looking like Hamas planned a 'big-style hijack', but then lost control over a 'party' that was after a mass-murder.
....'but', now, 'of course', everybody is after 'destroying Hamas' - and thus it 'doesn't matter' if that means destruction and ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip.
Thank you!
Amazing how these news outlets posts such lies that are easy to fact-check
Which is why Lawrence of Arabia joined the RAF!
One of the best article introductions ever written. :)
Спасибо за работу
there is K in Arabic tho
What ever happened to the good old coinage "guerrilla" to describe the likes of Hamas I wonder. A little too neutral for either "side" perhaps. Anyway, consciously or not Hamas still operate according to Mao's theories of guerrilla warfare - and not some "senseless but devious" terroristic spirit.
The podcaster Bret Weinstein has an interesting interview on YouTube with an ex IDF intel person called Efrat Fenigson on Netanyahu's possible complicity.
“Guerrilla” would refer to someone using non-conventional means to fight against opposing soldiers, not someone murdering civilians.
Thanks, interesting interview indeed.
This is slightly off topic, but I would not put wahabism and the Muslim Brotherhood in the same sentence. Wahabism is a religious movement taken over by a political force (dinasty), while the Muslim Brotherhood is clearly a political movement, that is a lot more neutral and flexible around religious issues than wahabism and more focused on politics and their version of anti-colonialism than religion. It is more like a playbook, than a sect or a religious organisation.
It does not mean that they don't use religion or specific rules of religion against competitors, but they are adapting to local conditions and their closeness to power. The local Muslim Brotherhood can be like the Taliban, or a charitable organization running a hospital and Quran study that lets in women without hijab depending the circumstances.
" Muslim Brotherhood " is a catch of all terms. At best it obtuse more than it helps understand anything. Frequently it is just wrong and pure fantasy. The word " Wahabism " is following the same trajectory but it is a battle I rather not start at all.
Because the original movement in Egypt was one of the main roots of the modern political islam and there are still large organizations, parties and movements associating themselves with MB, I think it is still relevant, but you are right, Western media rarely gives any context to its mentions and in that case you are right, it does not help with understanding what a connection to Muslim Brotherhood means.
....that topics is a 'huge can, stuffed full of worms'...
Your last paragraph/photo says it all.
They have told the Palestinians to leave Northern Gaza. Seems you were right.
But Northern Gaza must be a pretty big part of Gaza, I think I saw some estimates that 1 million people were asked to move. So they will have a hugh area, urban wise to bomb and attack. Not going to be easy.
Its about half of Gaza. And the Israeli's seem determined. They might go full scorched earth.
Well, they might try, but how easy will it be?
Move to where? Whole of Gaza is already one of the most dense populated "Ghettos" (because that what it is in reality) of the world. Whoever thinks that moving half of the population from North to South is even a possibility lives in some La-La Wonderland and is eating magic mushrooms with Alice and the caterpillar.
well, based on todays News from the Norwegian Broadcasting service people are moving South. Not all will be able/willing to, but a lot are moving. To what they dont know, but they do know that If Israel kan drop leaflets, they can drop bombs. So many will try to move. How many ends up not moving I dont know, only that a lot of people are trying.
Imagine you are the governour of a 1 million people town and someone tells you to evacuate them within 24 hours and your only options are either the sea or your neighbour town where another 1 million people live. And all of that without water, food, gasoline or electricity and communication.
At least some western media try to broadcast some sense of reality, automatic english subtitles work well enough: https://youtu.be/JwzxGpWEWyM?t=581
I have no idea how this will work out, what I see is that Israel is warning people and some are flying. This seems to indicate that Israel will attack following Tom’s analysis of how they have done before. In my mind it will also be a very heavy bombing and shelling first. And of course this will result in killings.
And they were given 24 hours.
Excellent article: well reasoned and based primarily on reasoning and on evidence, not on "wishful thinking". Please apply the same reasoning and writing skills to Ukraine-Russia war
He does already
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/02/26/karta-voyny-v-ukraine-posmotrite-gde-idut-boi-segodnya
Thanks for the update, sobering as it is. And it galls me to se Ursula von der Leyen rightly condemn Russia, but cheering on Israel. Yes, double standard at its finest/worst. Equally scary was the number of fighters on the Hamas side. I know you dont do prediction, but if tide numbers and your description of Israels forces are right I would be very very scared as an IDF general. This simply might not be doable. Personally, I not being much of a military man, would wait and starve (i got permission from Us and Eu). Gaza for a month, preparing and training my forces. But of course The Israelians want blood and revenge now. So they cant do that. And who knows how EU might react after a month of starvation. And those carriers out there will not be there forever. Hence attack now. Playing into Hamas hand.
An idea of the attack of the Hamas might have been to exclude the starving options, by being so brutal that immediate reaction is required.
That, plus the fact that Israeli are seeing themselves picked by God, will make the Israeli act swiftly.
Yes, that is true. But I think the starving option is too slow and kills too many. But letting them starve a little and stress a little ? Well, we will see what happens. And not like it one bit.
Ideas can be destroyed, together with their bearers. This is how Christianity disappeared from India and Japan.
If that's the biggest worry: there's still Christianity in both India and Japan. Even in Pakistan.
There are millions of Christians in India. Their growth has been little hindered, at least not directly. Japan is kind of unique in that it acted very early in the process, and its overall trajectory has been as one of the least-religiously interested (in any form) human societies in modern history, maybe even ever. Without the latter attribute, most of the population would probably have Christianized over the past 170 years.
My mistake about India: I remember reading somewhere that early Christianity was destroyed in India, but now I cannot find the source.
In Japan Christians were persecuted for 200 years, with the religion losing much of the core ideas but retaining some rituals https://www.catholiceducation.org/en/culture/catholic-contributions/kakure-kirishitan.html