What is the motivation for "The West" to prefer Pakistan over India with regards to arms sales? Surely India is a far more attractive partner to sell weapons to than Pakistan (larger economy, not likely to collaborate with China when it comes to intelligence and weapon sharing and not supporting jihadists globally)
Very interesting and very detailed Tom. Much appreciated 👍. It's a conflict zone I don't have much knowledge of so thank you for a 'leg up' on the background circumstances.
1. "whether because one can’t be that unkind to the enemy, or it’s a tradition not to do that kind of things, or because the buerocracy in New Delhi is taking literal 20-35 years to bring one decision regarding any new acquisitions for the IAF" - It is the latter. There's a running joke among NatSec enthusiasts in India that New Delhi will first ask for quotes on "foreign" weapons, then take 10 years to decide on one and then eventually decide in 5 more years to take half of what they initially wanted because of cost overruns.
2. You're absolutely spot on about too much procedure and trying to look "proper" - The first constraint in New Delhi, regardless of who is in political power, is "we must keep the moral high ground", which means, "we can't look as the aggressor". And this leads to doing things upside down like what has happened here.
3. Another thing in the conflict is that on the 7th of May, both countries engaged in heavy artillery shelling along the LoC on the Rajouri-Poonch sector of J&K. India claims that a school and a Gurudwara was hit, with about 20 civilian deaths and 60 odd injuries. The photos and videos of the casualties, especially of children, is quite jarring.
4. Thank you for the focus on the Brahmos wreckage. It has gone almost completely unreported.
"Bottom line: this looks like if somebody took off from the Sirsa AB (or the Bikaner AB?), then got surprised by PL-15s while still turning in direction of Pakistan…" - Do you mean they were beginning an operation and were attacked almost immediately just as they were heading towards the border? That would be... yeah not ideal for the IAF.
Don't know precise details about when and how were the (at least) two Su-30MKIs attacked, but I'm sure they've had to jettison their Brahmos well before they could 'fire' them.
Hmm, so there were at least two more sites that were being targeted but were never shot at, if this is right.
This is still a major escalation from India though - over the last 25 years (or starting from the 2001 Parliament attacks), these activities from the ISI-trained "non-state actors" have always been answered by either border standoffs, diplomatic shouting matches, investigation dossiers, or extremely small-scale missile activities in POJK, as evidenced in 2016 and 2019. First time I have seen India call the nuclear deterrence bluff and attack undisputed Pakistani regions and cities.
Oh, the 'escalation in comparison to 2019 and earlier' - is a matter of fact.
I just do not understand this insistence on hopelessly obsolete 'procedures' and 'etikette': already the Pak terror attack on the Parliament in New Delhi was no 'border accident', Mumbai even less so. Explaining this with 'we can't appear as aggressors' was pointless already back then. So, why 'remaining polite' even in 2025?
Target the ISI wherever it's crawling the surface. Then target it under the ground too. And that is requiring removing the PAF - which in turn is requiring far better intel, EW, and longer-ranged weapons. All of that was clear at least as of 1999...
It was but India treats PAK and ISI with rubber gloves, for whatever reason - perhaps the only country that accepts these many innocent casualties for "the bigger picture".
Like you said, it's definitely obsolete and perhaps this action should have been taken in 2008 itself - whatever it is, we are now in this situation where ISI's "death by a thousand cuts" strategy is finally getting some deserved response from IND. If only they were faster and more organized without worrying about stuff like "international reactions"
"‘Not only’ that the PAF ‘violated’ that ‘agreement’ about ‘no shooting over the international border’ when opening fire at incoming and/or retreating IAF jets."
Does that mean the PAF declared war on India? Or do you believe India will attack again to respond to that breach in protocol?
I know such speculation isn't your thing but I'm going to pretend I didn't read the first part ;)
Yes as far Indians are concerned it's an all out war like scenario. Pak attacked major Indian cities in Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat and J&K. Even they attacked today at cities like Jammu and pathankot with swarm drones. So, India has no choice but to retaliate in a much stronger way against Pakistan's mischiefs as per foreign secretary. As for Pak declared war on India, I don't think so. It all depends on how Pak responds to india's operation Sindoor in the coming days. Balls in pak court but inorder to save its face, munir will attack in a much larger scale than India did that too on civilian infrastructure and military bases. Why? Since India doesn't have any terrorist camps. The vertical escalation ladder would go as far as near the brink of war. It's like game of chickens at the moment.
That's another ironic aspect of this affair: officially, nope, there is no 'war'. 'Just border accidents' - even if that means that, for example, the Indians claim they're striking even the port of Karachi.
Thank you for this interesting and detailed analysis. Strange to attack today without trying to do some Sead. But… It would seem that this conflict now has escalated out of the normal bounds. Which is not good.
Indeed: amazing. Thanks to their work, this period of that war is better explained than any other earlier periods (and the 'civil' war in Sudan is, actually, raging since the late 1950s).
This was a interesting read. India and Pakistan don't want to go into a full blown war but situation at the moment is more of face saving kind of a thing than establishing a deterrence over the enemy. Pakistan had a win but they still choose to attack golden temple in Amritsar now that's a red line for many Indians. They still choose to attack major Indian populated cities along the border. India doesn't have terror camps so attacked military bases which India won't tolerate. A cycle of vertical escalation would not hurt the IIndian economy as the Pakistani one which is on the mercy of IMF and chinese donations. If India takes Pakistan to the brink of war then outcomes would be favourable towards India. But does India's strikes on Pakistan grantees that there won't be another pahalgam type terror attack? No. ISI is known for its asymmetrical warfare and could even conduct 10x times bigger attacks than 7/10 in major populated Indian cities since that's the only way they can win this vertical ladder of escalation. India has about 200 million Muslims who are not known for their patriotism and we have earlier faced riots as well as terror attacks from only one particular peaceful community, now calling that as an Islamophobic comment would be a huge folly since in Pahalgam attack locals kashmiri were itself involved such as providing shelters, food and monetary support and doing recce of targets for the terrorists. So altogether I don't think that such operations would halt terrors attacks in J&K but Pakistan would amlify these attacks since that's only power game they can play and no matter how much diplomacy or G2G dialogue you do it's would not stop Pakistan's sponsored terror attacks. For example after then india's former PM late Shri atal bihari vajypee went to Lahore, Pakistan for a peace deal in Jan or Feb 1999, few months later they declared a war upon us. Only solution to this problem is to once for all disintrigate Pakistan via covertly funded operations by India such as supporting BLA, TTP and rebels in Sindh.
Thanks Tom for the updates on details, the mandated thinking/disinformation plays/IO created the escalation now or contributed to such level. Air warfare effectiveness is not just the MRF/aircraft which the 2 AFs supporters plays "which is better BS".
Thanks again and waiting for the details, your analysis on the jettisoned ASM Bramhos is good, on a related note, the incident could affect the delivery schedule (delayed already) of the CD variant my country bought.
Wreckage of a 46N4 missile was found inside Pakistan today. So, S-400 was certainly deployed in combat... not only because 'half of India' is in celebrations about 'so many incoming Pakistani UAVs shot down by S-400s, yesterday' (which, BTW, was not even thruth: the mass of kills was scored by shorter-ranged SAM-systems and EWS).
Excellent piece - it may not have been a win for the IAF but it is a definite right on the mark again win for the Sarcastasaur. Bravo and thank you very much.
Thanks and interesting read 👍
What is the motivation for "The West" to prefer Pakistan over India with regards to arms sales? Surely India is a far more attractive partner to sell weapons to than Pakistan (larger economy, not likely to collaborate with China when it comes to intelligence and weapon sharing and not supporting jihadists globally)
'Dictatorships are easier to control' (sry, don't recall where is that quote from).
Well India might be a difficult opponent so why not keep it occupied with Pakistan?
There's an awful lot of colonial and Cold War history involved in how this came about. Fubar is the best description.
I'm worried that sheer incompetence and lying will cause a real war here.
For all practical purposes, as of yesterday in the morning, this was a 'war'.
'It just so happens', that both New Delhi and Islamabad prefer not to call it that way...
Very interesting and very detailed Tom. Much appreciated 👍. It's a conflict zone I don't have much knowledge of so thank you for a 'leg up' on the background circumstances.
The bramos is now the biggest decoy/chaff ever made!
Great read, thanks.
Few comments:
1. "whether because one can’t be that unkind to the enemy, or it’s a tradition not to do that kind of things, or because the buerocracy in New Delhi is taking literal 20-35 years to bring one decision regarding any new acquisitions for the IAF" - It is the latter. There's a running joke among NatSec enthusiasts in India that New Delhi will first ask for quotes on "foreign" weapons, then take 10 years to decide on one and then eventually decide in 5 more years to take half of what they initially wanted because of cost overruns.
2. You're absolutely spot on about too much procedure and trying to look "proper" - The first constraint in New Delhi, regardless of who is in political power, is "we must keep the moral high ground", which means, "we can't look as the aggressor". And this leads to doing things upside down like what has happened here.
3. Another thing in the conflict is that on the 7th of May, both countries engaged in heavy artillery shelling along the LoC on the Rajouri-Poonch sector of J&K. India claims that a school and a Gurudwara was hit, with about 20 civilian deaths and 60 odd injuries. The photos and videos of the casualties, especially of children, is quite jarring.
4. Thank you for the focus on the Brahmos wreckage. It has gone almost completely unreported.
"Bottom line: this looks like if somebody took off from the Sirsa AB (or the Bikaner AB?), then got surprised by PL-15s while still turning in direction of Pakistan…" - Do you mean they were beginning an operation and were attacked almost immediately just as they were heading towards the border? That would be... yeah not ideal for the IAF.
Don't know precise details about when and how were the (at least) two Su-30MKIs attacked, but I'm sure they've had to jettison their Brahmos well before they could 'fire' them.
Hmm, so there were at least two more sites that were being targeted but were never shot at, if this is right.
This is still a major escalation from India though - over the last 25 years (or starting from the 2001 Parliament attacks), these activities from the ISI-trained "non-state actors" have always been answered by either border standoffs, diplomatic shouting matches, investigation dossiers, or extremely small-scale missile activities in POJK, as evidenced in 2016 and 2019. First time I have seen India call the nuclear deterrence bluff and attack undisputed Pakistani regions and cities.
Oh, the 'escalation in comparison to 2019 and earlier' - is a matter of fact.
I just do not understand this insistence on hopelessly obsolete 'procedures' and 'etikette': already the Pak terror attack on the Parliament in New Delhi was no 'border accident', Mumbai even less so. Explaining this with 'we can't appear as aggressors' was pointless already back then. So, why 'remaining polite' even in 2025?
Target the ISI wherever it's crawling the surface. Then target it under the ground too. And that is requiring removing the PAF - which in turn is requiring far better intel, EW, and longer-ranged weapons. All of that was clear at least as of 1999...
It was but India treats PAK and ISI with rubber gloves, for whatever reason - perhaps the only country that accepts these many innocent casualties for "the bigger picture".
Like you said, it's definitely obsolete and perhaps this action should have been taken in 2008 itself - whatever it is, we are now in this situation where ISI's "death by a thousand cuts" strategy is finally getting some deserved response from IND. If only they were faster and more organized without worrying about stuff like "international reactions"
"‘Not only’ that the PAF ‘violated’ that ‘agreement’ about ‘no shooting over the international border’ when opening fire at incoming and/or retreating IAF jets."
Does that mean the PAF declared war on India? Or do you believe India will attack again to respond to that breach in protocol?
I know such speculation isn't your thing but I'm going to pretend I didn't read the first part ;)
Yes as far Indians are concerned it's an all out war like scenario. Pak attacked major Indian cities in Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat and J&K. Even they attacked today at cities like Jammu and pathankot with swarm drones. So, India has no choice but to retaliate in a much stronger way against Pakistan's mischiefs as per foreign secretary. As for Pak declared war on India, I don't think so. It all depends on how Pak responds to india's operation Sindoor in the coming days. Balls in pak court but inorder to save its face, munir will attack in a much larger scale than India did that too on civilian infrastructure and military bases. Why? Since India doesn't have any terrorist camps. The vertical escalation ladder would go as far as near the brink of war. It's like game of chickens at the moment.
Thanks!
That's another ironic aspect of this affair: officially, nope, there is no 'war'. 'Just border accidents' - even if that means that, for example, the Indians claim they're striking even the port of Karachi.
Thank you for this interesting and detailed analysis. Strange to attack today without trying to do some Sead. But… It would seem that this conflict now has escalated out of the normal bounds. Which is not good.
Thank you very much for this long and detailed analysys.
I know it's a lot to ask (actually not really asking, anyway) but I'd love to hear your take about the Sudanese Civil War.
For Sudan, please check https://substack.com/@sudanwar
The gents there are producing regular-, timely-, and high-quality reports about latest developments. Their work is really worth every penny.
Oh yea, I already follow their substack. They are amazing.
Indeed: amazing. Thanks to their work, this period of that war is better explained than any other earlier periods (and the 'civil' war in Sudan is, actually, raging since the late 1950s).
TLDR: This would of never happened if trump was president!
Thanks, good read! If I was a female with a thing for aerial warfare, I'd let you do things to me that religious texts did even not know to forbid.
Cheers!
Muy bueno cómo siempre, de gran ayuda para entender este conflicto.
This was a interesting read. India and Pakistan don't want to go into a full blown war but situation at the moment is more of face saving kind of a thing than establishing a deterrence over the enemy. Pakistan had a win but they still choose to attack golden temple in Amritsar now that's a red line for many Indians. They still choose to attack major Indian populated cities along the border. India doesn't have terror camps so attacked military bases which India won't tolerate. A cycle of vertical escalation would not hurt the IIndian economy as the Pakistani one which is on the mercy of IMF and chinese donations. If India takes Pakistan to the brink of war then outcomes would be favourable towards India. But does India's strikes on Pakistan grantees that there won't be another pahalgam type terror attack? No. ISI is known for its asymmetrical warfare and could even conduct 10x times bigger attacks than 7/10 in major populated Indian cities since that's the only way they can win this vertical ladder of escalation. India has about 200 million Muslims who are not known for their patriotism and we have earlier faced riots as well as terror attacks from only one particular peaceful community, now calling that as an Islamophobic comment would be a huge folly since in Pahalgam attack locals kashmiri were itself involved such as providing shelters, food and monetary support and doing recce of targets for the terrorists. So altogether I don't think that such operations would halt terrors attacks in J&K but Pakistan would amlify these attacks since that's only power game they can play and no matter how much diplomacy or G2G dialogue you do it's would not stop Pakistan's sponsored terror attacks. For example after then india's former PM late Shri atal bihari vajypee went to Lahore, Pakistan for a peace deal in Jan or Feb 1999, few months later they declared a war upon us. Only solution to this problem is to once for all disintrigate Pakistan via covertly funded operations by India such as supporting BLA, TTP and rebels in Sindh.
Thanks Tom for the updates on details, the mandated thinking/disinformation plays/IO created the escalation now or contributed to such level. Air warfare effectiveness is not just the MRF/aircraft which the 2 AFs supporters plays "which is better BS".
Thanks again and waiting for the details, your analysis on the jettisoned ASM Bramhos is good, on a related note, the incident could affect the delivery schedule (delayed already) of the CD variant my country bought.
As much as you like to hate on Israel, they don't muck around and they always strike with overwhelming force whem touched! 🤣
Indian S-400s fired in anger for the first time:
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2025/05/08/breaking-indias-s-400-debuts-in-combat-to-shield-airspace/
The article you linked (https://bulgarianmilitary.com/...) doesn't actually provide any concrete confirmation that the S-400 was used in real combat.
The information is based solely on “Indian defense sources cited by local media”, with no specific details such as:
how many targets were engaged,
how many missiles were launched,
what specific threats were neutralized,
no photos or videos,
no official statements.
So far, it seems more like a PR move or informational spin rather than documented combat deployment.
Wreckage of a 46N4 missile was found inside Pakistan today. So, S-400 was certainly deployed in combat... not only because 'half of India' is in celebrations about 'so many incoming Pakistani UAVs shot down by S-400s, yesterday' (which, BTW, was not even thruth: the mass of kills was scored by shorter-ranged SAM-systems and EWS).
Excellent piece - it may not have been a win for the IAF but it is a definite right on the mark again win for the Sarcastasaur. Bravo and thank you very much.