Thanks for the update. The analysis of drones is fascinating and how much they have changed over the three years. The rest of the world, apart from Russia and Ukraine has a lot of learning to do.
While I am here. Haven’t heard anything about the Ricshaws in some time. But it’s still there and in need of donations? I can of course support other organizations, I just happen to feel that this is good so if it is there money will be transferred. Maybe some others are interested as well?
" They came across crates of abandoned foreign-made kamikaze drones with a range of 100-120 km. They were told the drones were “crap that didn’t fly”, but they started studying the problem and even went abroad for training"
I guess that resistance to change is a perennial constant in all militaries of the world...
Nice. Especially on the artillery. 7000 to 8000 rounds and no noticeable issues due to barrel wear? THAT is impressive. The drone innovation is also excellent to read about. I have to wonder how long until the UA is making their own versions of Bradleys and even a more modern tank. I know they make a T-84 (I think it's called) that is a modernized T-62/4, I keep wondering if they are going to surprise the world and roll out a new one though. But to be honest, I'm guessing more Bohdans would be better.
They are also building Rheinmetall's Lynx IFV in western Ukraine. Ten Lynx have been delivered already but it takes a while to get serial production going on a large scale.
"[Rheinmetall's] CEO, Armin Papperger, has indicated that serial production in Ukraine could commence by summer 2025, with an estimated production cycle of 12 months."
Oh my God. I would LOVE to see Panthers produced in Ukraine. The CV90s are a win too and the Lynxs. I love the fact the Russians are sending D20s to the front anymore while Ukraine is having serious discussions on if the Bradley or CV 90 is better and issuing BREN 2s.
In my opinion, having more heavy MBTs in Ukraine isn't as urgent as adding IFVs at the level of M2 Bradley and above.
If the CV90 and Lynx are better than the M2 Bradley (adding ERA and anti-drone systems is a requirement), the current existing Leopard 1/2 and M1 Abrams (if you add the Australian surplus) should be adequate. Heck, even the few Challenger 2 tanks are still surviving in their majority.
Of course, an assault would require engineering vehicles (anti-mine, bridging etc), which is always in short supply... But I repeat, having heavy IFVs is a very important part of a mechanized brigade. Even the old Leopard 1A5 is 'good enough' to face off the current Russian tanks and lend fire support. Having 300 additional advanced IFVs at the end of the year would be real nice.
I hope that Ukraine will achieve air superiority in the battlefield this year with the arrival of more F-16s and Mirage 2000s, in combination with the Saab/Ericsson AWACS systems (the latter would be nice to have a capability for extra fuel tanks, in order to get more flight endurance)
I tend to agree with you on that IFV part. They are cheaper to build, have proven to be as deadly as a tank in many cases (they can certainly hold their own against pretty much every RU Tank out there), and can actually protect their crews and passengers. More modern tanks would be nice, but in this case even older Western Models work (the Leopard 1A5s, once upgraded to UA standards, seem to be doing fine), so focus on more IFVs isn't a bad way to go. But still, I'd be down with some new build German Panthers roaming around. Just being able to say "German Panthers are deployed in Ukraine" has to drive Putin up a wall. Hell, an M113 is better armored than the BMP series of IFVs, and the Mad Maxing the UA is doing on some of them make for a pretty dangerous upgrade.
The M113 needs a serious upgrade on defensive capabilities. I doubt that they can even withstand half inch machine guns, so these would need additional armor plates, ERA armor, anti-drone protection etc. I would avoid using these near the front line, only as a last resort (compared to walking infantry, these may be a better way to move). I would employ these in the most quiet places of the front, especially in heavily muddy areas.
I share your sentiment about getting brand new Panthers against Russia, but their cost in money and resources would give you 2-3 Lynx IFVs instead (I suppose), which can do lots of things well enough, and carry infantry and provide fire support in the battlefield. After seeing Bradleys facing off even T90s, I guess that having multiple heavy IFVs equipped with anti-tank missiles would be dangerous enough for any tank.
Air superiority is still the large gap in Ukraine's capabilities. I am daydreaming about 1-2 Gripen squadrons equipped with Meteor missiles, while a large contingent of GBAD systems keeps military and civilians protected against ballistic/cruise missiles and drones (but destroying enough of the Russian air force should be cheaper)
IFVs seem to be Ukraine's priority too. If the Lynx is in full production next year then, with a one year cycle, large numbers should appear in 2026, not this, unfortunately. Also, having just delivered a build-your-own airfield control and maintenance kit in their latest aid package, plus putting aside spares for 14 Gripen C/Ds, and some pilot training already, Sweden looks set to deliver a full squadron of Gripens some time this year as the new E/F model enters service. Gripen C/Ds carry Meteors. Their arrival will be a very bad day for the VKS. How long before they gone on active duty is anyone's guess. According to Swedish statements last year, the Saab 340s arrive early summer. I don't think that's a coincidence with the Gripen timings. Hope not, anyway.
I agree. Ukraine keeps getting stronger, Russia keep getting weaker. Those D20s will be chewed up almost immediately. They can only operate in the middle of the FPV kill zone. It's pure desperation.
There have been no concrete plans announced for Panther production. I suspect the priority is the Leopard 1/Skyranger 35mm pairing for Ukraine. Rheinmetall plans to deliver ten ASAP.
And those first ten Lynx were a proof of production step on the way to full production. Since, Rheinmetall sounds very happy about how that went, I hope, given the 12 month production cycle, we see lots of Lynx arriving on the battlefield in early 2026. Rheinmetall has said Ukraine needs 3,000 Lynx.
Btw, there are also hints about Boxers too but nothing is confirmed.
Is it 3000 Lynx or 3000 IFVs? Lynx are great, but if the UA can get 3000 total of a mix, that works too. Sadly Bradleys are likely to not be coming in numbers (unless the UA just buys them or another user donates), but there are other IFVs out there that can show up. 3000 Western IFVs of any mix are bad news for Russia.
Hopefully, this $50 billion of US arms Ukraine wants to buy will include Bradleys. There are still thousands in storage.
3,000 Lynx was the figure mentioned by the CEO of Rheinmetall a few months ago. It's a sensible long-term target, but also clearly a sales pitch. The Swedish-Dutch coalition is building approx. 200 CV90s, IIRC. There's been no upper limit announced on the number of Lynx, but it is hard to see their new facilities turning out more than hundreds a year. It's also hard to imagine Hungary (who have a new factory building Lynx too) contributing.
The UK is sitting on a load of old Warrior IFVs but they are nowhere near as good as the M2 or the more modern IFVs. All you can say is that they're better protected than M113s.
These remarks remind me of a blog I read a few months ago, let me remember... ah, by a guy called Tom (these brain cells are a bit slow tonight...)
But it's easier to mention these problems when being outside the chain of command, I'll grant Mr. Krotevych. It's too bad the reform of the Ukraine general staff cannot be forced from inside.
As a great fan of your deep analysis, especially as far as air warfare is concerned, may I ask what is your assessment on Turkish Bayraktar drones ?
I have a feeling that they produce very expensive drones ( they were testing a jet version a few months ago ) but it is like all the ones used in Ukraine were shot down.
Isn’t one of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict lessons that the right option is going for cheap/ easy to produce small drones rather than heavy and probably easier to take down bigger ones ?
I have the feeling that big drones like the Turkish ones or the US ones are effective only in the case of asymmetrical conflicts, like fighting guerrillas or the Azeri/Armenian conflict , where Armenia didn’t have the EW resources or operational air defense systems .
Thanks for the update. The analysis of drones is fascinating and how much they have changed over the three years. The rest of the world, apart from Russia and Ukraine has a lot of learning to do.
While I am here. Haven’t heard anything about the Ricshaws in some time. But it’s still there and in need of donations? I can of course support other organizations, I just happen to feel that this is good so if it is there money will be transferred. Maybe some others are interested as well?
Thanks for a reminder: we're in the process of acquiring and transshipping two cars for the ZSU... I'll post an update as soon as I only can.
" They came across crates of abandoned foreign-made kamikaze drones with a range of 100-120 km. They were told the drones were “crap that didn’t fly”, but they started studying the problem and even went abroad for training"
I guess that resistance to change is a perennial constant in all militaries of the world...
Nice. Especially on the artillery. 7000 to 8000 rounds and no noticeable issues due to barrel wear? THAT is impressive. The drone innovation is also excellent to read about. I have to wonder how long until the UA is making their own versions of Bradleys and even a more modern tank. I know they make a T-84 (I think it's called) that is a modernized T-62/4, I keep wondering if they are going to surprise the world and roll out a new one though. But to be honest, I'm guessing more Bohdans would be better.
Ukraine is working with Sweden to build the CV-90 in country. I haven't seen any projections on the expected rate of production.
They are also building Rheinmetall's Lynx IFV in western Ukraine. Ten Lynx have been delivered already but it takes a while to get serial production going on a large scale.
"[Rheinmetall's] CEO, Armin Papperger, has indicated that serial production in Ukraine could commence by summer 2025, with an estimated production cycle of 12 months."
(https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/rheinmetall_poised_to_open_armor_plant_in_ukraine_in_record_breaking_time-7274.html)
Rheinmetall also want to manufacture the KF51 Panther MBT in Ukraine, but that's still a very long way off.
https://en.defence-(ua.com/industries/germanys_rheinmetall_wants_to_manufacture_its_brand_new_kf51_panther_tanks_in_ukraine-5942.html)
Oh my God. I would LOVE to see Panthers produced in Ukraine. The CV90s are a win too and the Lynxs. I love the fact the Russians are sending D20s to the front anymore while Ukraine is having serious discussions on if the Bradley or CV 90 is better and issuing BREN 2s.
In my opinion, having more heavy MBTs in Ukraine isn't as urgent as adding IFVs at the level of M2 Bradley and above.
If the CV90 and Lynx are better than the M2 Bradley (adding ERA and anti-drone systems is a requirement), the current existing Leopard 1/2 and M1 Abrams (if you add the Australian surplus) should be adequate. Heck, even the few Challenger 2 tanks are still surviving in their majority.
Of course, an assault would require engineering vehicles (anti-mine, bridging etc), which is always in short supply... But I repeat, having heavy IFVs is a very important part of a mechanized brigade. Even the old Leopard 1A5 is 'good enough' to face off the current Russian tanks and lend fire support. Having 300 additional advanced IFVs at the end of the year would be real nice.
I hope that Ukraine will achieve air superiority in the battlefield this year with the arrival of more F-16s and Mirage 2000s, in combination with the Saab/Ericsson AWACS systems (the latter would be nice to have a capability for extra fuel tanks, in order to get more flight endurance)
I tend to agree with you on that IFV part. They are cheaper to build, have proven to be as deadly as a tank in many cases (they can certainly hold their own against pretty much every RU Tank out there), and can actually protect their crews and passengers. More modern tanks would be nice, but in this case even older Western Models work (the Leopard 1A5s, once upgraded to UA standards, seem to be doing fine), so focus on more IFVs isn't a bad way to go. But still, I'd be down with some new build German Panthers roaming around. Just being able to say "German Panthers are deployed in Ukraine" has to drive Putin up a wall. Hell, an M113 is better armored than the BMP series of IFVs, and the Mad Maxing the UA is doing on some of them make for a pretty dangerous upgrade.
The M113 needs a serious upgrade on defensive capabilities. I doubt that they can even withstand half inch machine guns, so these would need additional armor plates, ERA armor, anti-drone protection etc. I would avoid using these near the front line, only as a last resort (compared to walking infantry, these may be a better way to move). I would employ these in the most quiet places of the front, especially in heavily muddy areas.
I share your sentiment about getting brand new Panthers against Russia, but their cost in money and resources would give you 2-3 Lynx IFVs instead (I suppose), which can do lots of things well enough, and carry infantry and provide fire support in the battlefield. After seeing Bradleys facing off even T90s, I guess that having multiple heavy IFVs equipped with anti-tank missiles would be dangerous enough for any tank.
Air superiority is still the large gap in Ukraine's capabilities. I am daydreaming about 1-2 Gripen squadrons equipped with Meteor missiles, while a large contingent of GBAD systems keeps military and civilians protected against ballistic/cruise missiles and drones (but destroying enough of the Russian air force should be cheaper)
IFVs seem to be Ukraine's priority too. If the Lynx is in full production next year then, with a one year cycle, large numbers should appear in 2026, not this, unfortunately. Also, having just delivered a build-your-own airfield control and maintenance kit in their latest aid package, plus putting aside spares for 14 Gripen C/Ds, and some pilot training already, Sweden looks set to deliver a full squadron of Gripens some time this year as the new E/F model enters service. Gripen C/Ds carry Meteors. Their arrival will be a very bad day for the VKS. How long before they gone on active duty is anyone's guess. According to Swedish statements last year, the Saab 340s arrive early summer. I don't think that's a coincidence with the Gripen timings. Hope not, anyway.
I agree. Ukraine keeps getting stronger, Russia keep getting weaker. Those D20s will be chewed up almost immediately. They can only operate in the middle of the FPV kill zone. It's pure desperation.
There have been no concrete plans announced for Panther production. I suspect the priority is the Leopard 1/Skyranger 35mm pairing for Ukraine. Rheinmetall plans to deliver ten ASAP.
And those first ten Lynx were a proof of production step on the way to full production. Since, Rheinmetall sounds very happy about how that went, I hope, given the 12 month production cycle, we see lots of Lynx arriving on the battlefield in early 2026. Rheinmetall has said Ukraine needs 3,000 Lynx.
Btw, there are also hints about Boxers too but nothing is confirmed.
Is it 3000 Lynx or 3000 IFVs? Lynx are great, but if the UA can get 3000 total of a mix, that works too. Sadly Bradleys are likely to not be coming in numbers (unless the UA just buys them or another user donates), but there are other IFVs out there that can show up. 3000 Western IFVs of any mix are bad news for Russia.
Hopefully, this $50 billion of US arms Ukraine wants to buy will include Bradleys. There are still thousands in storage.
3,000 Lynx was the figure mentioned by the CEO of Rheinmetall a few months ago. It's a sensible long-term target, but also clearly a sales pitch. The Swedish-Dutch coalition is building approx. 200 CV90s, IIRC. There's been no upper limit announced on the number of Lynx, but it is hard to see their new facilities turning out more than hundreds a year. It's also hard to imagine Hungary (who have a new factory building Lynx too) contributing.
The UK is sitting on a load of old Warrior IFVs but they are nowhere near as good as the M2 or the more modern IFVs. All you can say is that they're better protected than M113s.
Nothing motivates faster than an existential threat.
Thanks guys! I’m Curious if Ukraine makes The gun barrels or imports them from Europe. Has to be very high quality steel.
An interesting initiative related to F16 piloting skills training
Anyone can participate (only 110k€ missing)
https://donio.cz/simulator-f16-pro-ukrajinu?fbclid=IwY2xjawIyYMlleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYFjXla6Q9Me4FknH79LgUr-deHg-jM1l32kcg4c6V643ML5KhT-Md8qWg_aem_9SCpByTQm_QcXDOMTKCvkg
My mistake 11k€ only
Thanks Don and Tom
Thanks, Don. That feature in Pravda on the 14th UAV is reporting we rarely read or see. Here's the link again:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2025/03/17/7503165/
Btw, and just in case anyone didn't know, the 14th is credited with that devastating attack on Engels-2 strategic bomber base three weeks ago.
The Guardian: «Ukraine’s military chief ‘must go’, says commander who quit to speak out
Oleksandr Syrskyi risking lives with ‘borderline criminal’ orders, says Bohdan Krotevych, former Azov brigade leader»
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/09/ukraine-military-chief-oleksandr-syrskyi-must-go-bohdan-krotevych
These remarks remind me of a blog I read a few months ago, let me remember... ah, by a guy called Tom (these brain cells are a bit slow tonight...)
But it's easier to mention these problems when being outside the chain of command, I'll grant Mr. Krotevych. It's too bad the reform of the Ukraine general staff cannot be forced from inside.
Dear Tom,
As a great fan of your deep analysis, especially as far as air warfare is concerned, may I ask what is your assessment on Turkish Bayraktar drones ?
I have a feeling that they produce very expensive drones ( they were testing a jet version a few months ago ) but it is like all the ones used in Ukraine were shot down.
Isn’t one of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict lessons that the right option is going for cheap/ easy to produce small drones rather than heavy and probably easier to take down bigger ones ?
I have the feeling that big drones like the Turkish ones or the US ones are effective only in the case of asymmetrical conflicts, like fighting guerrillas or the Azeri/Armenian conflict , where Armenia didn’t have the EW resources or operational air defense systems .
I’m curious to read your views on the topic.
https://lovelylad.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-offensive-in-kursk
Трохи не по темі. Початок операції на Курщині очима учасника подій.