That was sarcasm, of course. The story of the 155 is really a tragedy, and all of the SBU's 'investigations' of cases like this one are simply a pile of .... hkhm...
Regarding the Russian mobilization, thank you for that analysis. Lots of numbers and information unknown to me, but important. From what you are saying the Russian army cannot continue the way it is attacking very long now.
The reported trends, whether it was the state of the Russian army or their economy, remain valid. There was no timeline attached to events and many events weren't even defined, except to say it would be a serious issue they'd have to deal with.
I certainly understand the frustration and impatience when there is constant death and destruction.
The steady increase in bonuses and increase in salaries in civilian jobs suggests there is a manpower problem. This is independent of any manpower issues the Ukrainian army has.
The manpower problem is related to the Russian economy which has to produce weapons plus previous imports.
The Russian Army doesn't show a decrease în numbers. It has to pay more because people have bargaing power. They can not be conscripted and they have rising wages în the civilian sector.
Unfortunately, it seems the timeline will not reach it's logical conclusion in 2025 or 2026, at least. By the way, I am currently in Russia, in Kirov, if anyone would be interested to see how it looks from inside, I could answer specific questions.
So somewhere in Ukraine there's their so far their only brigade staff trained by NATO standards, but with individuals dispersed who knows where and facing prosecution at the same time
A sizeable number are in that situation from the 155th, yes. Most soldiers remained with the unit.
On the plus side, I'm quite impressed by quite a few other brigades that have not been trained by NATO but have embraced the concepts of organization and initiative that made them quite successful.
True that, but sorry I just realized my comment wasn't clear enough.
I was thinking about the command staff from 155th HQ and the first sacked commander that trained in France. Since it seems to me it's the first such case?
Maybe the Swedes trained the HQ staff of "their" brigade in such a way? Not sure.
I was under impression that 47th and other brigades before the summer 2023. offensive concluded training in the West with battalion scale exercises before returning home, while brigade HQs weren't given training as described for 155th bde command staff in France. Sorry if I got it wrong.
I don't know the full extent of brigade staff training but there is a 21-day program in Poland in which brigade staffs rotate through. Since the brigade staffs arrive with different levels of experience and knowledge, the training program is constantly being adjusted to meet their needs.
I don't know how long the program has been in place or how many brigade staffs have rotated through the program, but the brigade staff in France was not the first to undergo foreign training. It was supposed to be the first unit that was fully equipped and trained by a NATO country from its inception. We know now that the brigade never had a chance to meet those training objectives.
The 2023 training in Germany had some aspects that were useful. The downsides were a certain level of disorganization and sitting around. Plus, they tried to do too much, too soon, such as conducting battalion-level excercises when they were not yet proficient at platoon- and company-level exercises. Plus, the training was based on NATO capabilities with a doctrine to fight Soviet forces, or at least a Russian force that was fighting by a pre-war Russian doctrine.
There was no attempt to seek Ukrainian input, or train according to Ukrainian capabilities, or to take into account the battlefield conditions, especially the use of drones, which was well-established by then. I'm also not aware of any training being conducted about the battalion level at that time, and there were only 2-3 days of battalion level training.
Russian generals are sacked for incompetence and/or corruption.
The Russians employ divisional and corps structure.
Russian veteran units are replenished on a constant/ factory belt manner. They are not allowed to atrophy into skeleton formations.
The Russian low level tactics have evolved very much. 2-3 guys are sent to capture positions by themselves without a full set of orders în their pockets.
The Russians were the first to use optic fiber for FPV drones. The Russians use land drones for resupply of advanced squads.
Manu thanks Tom. Happy new year and I Hope, the personal emergency was dealt with „Glück im Unglück“.
I found the data about the Russian part highly interesting. That, in combination with the significant reduction in glide bombs should have helped Ukraine significantly. But then there is the other side of the equation, i.e. the incompetence at the top of the Ukranian military foodchain. Good lord, so freaking stupid!!!
Well, it's hard to be competent when for decades your branch was a dumping grounds for anyone not good enough for private enterprise and your only qualification was not to create problems for higher-ups. It's a problem with all armies, but for post-ussr Ukraine it was greatly exaggerated. You don't fix a century of institutionalised incompetence in a decade, especially if the society at large suffers from the same problem.
Pay them bonuses if they survive...then detain/arrest/sentence to a 're-education camp' [aka GULAG] on some trumped up charge (theft in the battlefield, alleged cowardice or ...heh...looting) and they forfeit bonuses they earned or pay a fine OR BOTH.
Jeezus Christ on a crutch… what a cluster fck on the 155th… and to charge the brigade command on all the shit their unit received when they just arrived and trying to organize the shitshow U Stab initiated.
2) In addition to the large part about the Russian prison system I want to bring to your knowledge what that system in "best" soviet KGB (aka FSB) tradition stands for (be warned, that is a very unpleasant story):
3) We I had read this ( https://t.me/pilotblog/17955 )a day prior to part 5 I had the immediate impression that they were just looking for a scapegoat. Now that impression was confirmed. What a nasty farce. I guess also this is part of a soviet 'heritage'.
Blaming one person, justified or not, isn't going to fix the issues. The solutions are basic and common sense. At some point you'd hope that they actually cared about the lives of their soldiers.
They should if they want to call themselves professional.
In the Austrain army there is a paragraph in the ADV (short for Allgemeine Dienstvorschriften / General Service Regulations) which also states: "It must be taken into account that the design of the service operation promotes not only the performance but also the willingness to perform of all soldiers" (translation by Google)
Came across a related article on hardships inflicted on an infantry in 3 conflicts including current one in Ukraine. Substack link is here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-147391273.
I strongly suggest anyone further interested in the infantryman’s role in a conflict to read this article, if for nothing more than a historic perspective of hardships entailed by all parties, but mostly infantrymen. I was already somewhat aware of recruiting problems during the American Civil War, but what surprised me was the draining of recruits from training regiments to be sent prematurely to the front was a significant factor in WWII also. The staggering loses at Normandy (The 4th Infantry Division lost 95% of its infantry in the assault of Omaha Beach alone) resulted in, "Frantic efforts (being) made to muster more riflemen into battle. The Army had culled privates and NCOs from forty divisions while they were still training in the United States. Seventeen of those divisions had lost at least two-thirds of their infantry privates and countless junior officers, who then were sent overseas as individual replacements while recruits filled the ranks behind them. Not only were the original divisions devastated by this turnover – the 65th Infantry Division reported that some platoons had churned through as many as sixteen platoon leaders even before leaving the United States.” Unlike Ukraine though the "abundance of equipment and overwhelming firepower” exercised by the US Army was decisive factor obscuring any issues with infantry replacements.
Whatever assessment of military prowess with Ukraine, the fact that troops are being drained to the battlefield before they complete training or tactics being employed to keep the front line supplied is not in itself historically unique - to the misfortune of the 155th.
Good points Zodiac. Compared to WWII allies and enemies the US had almost unlimited manpower to draw on. Still, they used specialized branches like the Coastal Artillery Corps in 1944 to fill infantry billets, much like Grant did in 1864 in the Wilderness Campaign.
What do you intend when you say "deserted"? According to Stephan Korshak this doesn´t mean these soldiers are on the run in mass but that they mostly refuse to join the 155th to go or move to other brigades. Are your sources reporting something else? Are we talking here of people all of which will be prosecuted?
Some new recruits for the 155th just didn't want to be in the army. A lot were extremely concerned about the disorganization and the danger that would pose for their lives. Any individual that ended up with another unit will not be prosecuted.
This debacle about the 155th Brigade has started to make a little noise in France as well. Even mainstream media spoke about it briefly. With the usual distortion. I feel bad about Butusov wasting some time with our big TV media only for them to narrowly focus their coverage on the fighters who deserted while on the French territory.
Alas it seems to be a systemic issue. MilitaryLand.net keeps publishing similar news for many Brigades among the 150s serie. And translated articles are just the tip of the iceberg.
Before that we had the same kind of news about the previous serie of NATO trained formations after the big "counter offensive" failed. Including the most high profiles brigades like the 47th who suffered from a chaotic management.
For exemple, this account on how what would become the 47th Brigade was trained from scratch multiple times for different equipment. And at the end, it was not even sent with its planned one despite being identified as the spearhead unit.
I cant find Ukrainian article denouncing how the High Command is simultaneously trying to raise new brigade and use said brigade as training center for others and thus failing both task. I am inclined to agree. The result appears to be the worst of both worlds : established brigade dont get sufficient reinforcement while the chaos in management means that the new ones are eventually sent without being combat capable.
Last November, there was an extensive and rather shocking article about the Krynky operation. It once again included account of complete chaos and mismanagement from the High Command.
Among many shocking parts, it appeared the Marine brigades and the marine corps suffered from consistent chaos during the their creation phases. And due to the way the troops were expanded in the suicidal Krynky operation, nearly all combattants trained in the UK appeared to be KIA, too wounded to join back the fight or decided to move to better led brigades.
It is a long article that would deserve a full discussion on its own. On a side note, the British delusions and bizarre reference to their past military heritage reminds me of the CENTCOM New Syrian Force debacle up to the self sabotaged al-Bukamal offensive. Tom and old timers will recognize what I am talking about.
It is outrageous how PR plans and mismanagement from the highest officer echelons are allowed to cause losses. Some of them are borderline treasons like the Navy and the new Marine Corps command failing to provide boats to marine brigade out of inter service rivalry.
Thanks Tom and Don for all the work that these reports demand. Putin doesn’t want to negotiate, and this is why. He knows his forces are a mess, and he knows Kyiv’s are better, but also a mess. He also has the bios and evals of the Genstab U, and is not impressed. He sees that his weight in numbers is overcoming Ukrainian innovation and courage, and prays this will continue. He’s also betting on trump getting bored and frustrated with the whole thing, and letting Europe sort it out.
Thank you for the update. I was worried about that brigade, until you told there would be an investigation. What a relief!
Glad to hear you feel the relief, too... 🙄
I guess that was why you reported it?
Of course. I don't want you to live with worry.
That was sarcasm, of course. The story of the 155 is really a tragedy, and all of the SBU's 'investigations' of cases like this one are simply a pile of .... hkhm...
Sometimes even I understand sarcasm. Somebody is teaching…
Just note that it's not SBU. It's DBR (someone translated it as SBI). Not that it's likely to make any difference for the results...
Regarding the Russian mobilization, thank you for that analysis. Lots of numbers and information unknown to me, but important. From what you are saying the Russian army cannot continue the way it is attacking very long now.
We've already heard that for the past 3 years!
The reported trends, whether it was the state of the Russian army or their economy, remain valid. There was no timeline attached to events and many events weren't even defined, except to say it would be a serious issue they'd have to deal with.
I certainly understand the frustration and impatience when there is constant death and destruction.
Hi Donald the analysis doesn't search for Russian volunteers who finish their contract and return to civilian life.
Also the curent impression is that Russian forces în Ukraine are stable în numbers with maybe a small increase compared to 2023.
Manpower is not really a problem for the Russian forces especially as Ukrainian Army has bigger recruiting problems.
The budget for the Army will come under constraints at some point and limit the quantity of weapons.
The steady increase in bonuses and increase in salaries in civilian jobs suggests there is a manpower problem. This is independent of any manpower issues the Ukrainian army has.
The manpower problem is related to the Russian economy which has to produce weapons plus previous imports.
The Russian Army doesn't show a decrease în numbers. It has to pay more because people have bargaing power. They can not be conscripted and they have rising wages în the civilian sector.
Unfortunately, it seems the timeline will not reach it's logical conclusion in 2025 or 2026, at least. By the way, I am currently in Russia, in Kirov, if anyone would be interested to see how it looks from inside, I could answer specific questions.
How is Kirov? I'm in Mytishchi.
So somewhere in Ukraine there's their so far their only brigade staff trained by NATO standards, but with individuals dispersed who knows where and facing prosecution at the same time
A sizeable number are in that situation from the 155th, yes. Most soldiers remained with the unit.
On the plus side, I'm quite impressed by quite a few other brigades that have not been trained by NATO but have embraced the concepts of organization and initiative that made them quite successful.
True that, but sorry I just realized my comment wasn't clear enough.
I was thinking about the command staff from 155th HQ and the first sacked commander that trained in France. Since it seems to me it's the first such case?
Maybe the Swedes trained the HQ staff of "their" brigade in such a way? Not sure.
I was under impression that 47th and other brigades before the summer 2023. offensive concluded training in the West with battalion scale exercises before returning home, while brigade HQs weren't given training as described for 155th bde command staff in France. Sorry if I got it wrong.
No worries.
I don't know the full extent of brigade staff training but there is a 21-day program in Poland in which brigade staffs rotate through. Since the brigade staffs arrive with different levels of experience and knowledge, the training program is constantly being adjusted to meet their needs.
I don't know how long the program has been in place or how many brigade staffs have rotated through the program, but the brigade staff in France was not the first to undergo foreign training. It was supposed to be the first unit that was fully equipped and trained by a NATO country from its inception. We know now that the brigade never had a chance to meet those training objectives.
The 2023 training in Germany had some aspects that were useful. The downsides were a certain level of disorganization and sitting around. Plus, they tried to do too much, too soon, such as conducting battalion-level excercises when they were not yet proficient at platoon- and company-level exercises. Plus, the training was based on NATO capabilities with a doctrine to fight Soviet forces, or at least a Russian force that was fighting by a pre-war Russian doctrine.
There was no attempt to seek Ukrainian input, or train according to Ukrainian capabilities, or to take into account the battlefield conditions, especially the use of drones, which was well-established by then. I'm also not aware of any training being conducted about the battalion level at that time, and there were only 2-3 days of battalion level training.
That's brutal what happened to the 155th 😞. Incredibly frustrating. Yet as you say, at least the other side are making more mistakes 🤷🏼♂️.
Let us hope that at least some lessons can be learnt and this whole horrible mess not repeated.
To high jack a movie quote from Star Ship Troopers. "To fight the Orcs, we must know the Orcs. We can ill afford another 155th!"
It is still much better to be in the 155th Brigade than it is to be in the Russian army, for sure.
I'm not sure about Russian mistakes.
Russian generals are sacked for incompetence and/or corruption.
The Russians employ divisional and corps structure.
Russian veteran units are replenished on a constant/ factory belt manner. They are not allowed to atrophy into skeleton formations.
The Russian low level tactics have evolved very much. 2-3 guys are sent to capture positions by themselves without a full set of orders în their pockets.
The Russians were the first to use optic fiber for FPV drones. The Russians use land drones for resupply of advanced squads.
Manu thanks Tom. Happy new year and I Hope, the personal emergency was dealt with „Glück im Unglück“.
I found the data about the Russian part highly interesting. That, in combination with the significant reduction in glide bombs should have helped Ukraine significantly. But then there is the other side of the equation, i.e. the incompetence at the top of the Ukranian military foodchain. Good lord, so freaking stupid!!!
Stupid and unnecessary.
Well, it's hard to be competent when for decades your branch was a dumping grounds for anyone not good enough for private enterprise and your only qualification was not to create problems for higher-ups. It's a problem with all armies, but for post-ussr Ukraine it was greatly exaggerated. You don't fix a century of institutionalised incompetence in a decade, especially if the society at large suffers from the same problem.
Pay them bonuses if they survive...then detain/arrest/sentence to a 're-education camp' [aka GULAG] on some trumped up charge (theft in the battlefield, alleged cowardice or ...heh...looting) and they forfeit bonuses they earned or pay a fine OR BOTH.
That should balance the books.
I gotta do all the heavy thinking?
If only Stalin knew.
Jeezus Christ on a crutch… what a cluster fck on the 155th… and to charge the brigade command on all the shit their unit received when they just arrived and trying to organize the shitshow U Stab initiated.
In Russia the number of prisons is decreasing, but in Ukraine it will increase!
https://tsn.ua/ru/ukrayina/v-ukraine-postroyat-novye-tyurmy-v-vr-obyasnili-zachem-2718852.html
The reasons that the authorities put forward for this matter seem extremely unconvincing.
A very big 'Thank you' to Tom & Don.
1) The foreword did hit the nail!
2) In addition to the large part about the Russian prison system I want to bring to your knowledge what that system in "best" soviet KGB (aka FSB) tradition stands for (be warned, that is a very unpleasant story):
https://khpg.org/en/1608814261?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2tyKfIdIqKi1Iz9J76-PPBdHniiZove8j8bnF-NemG7Vmk4ZActiFdFJw_aem_hgnmNetOis53qHBDvPTNFw
3) We I had read this ( https://t.me/pilotblog/17955 )a day prior to part 5 I had the immediate impression that they were just looking for a scapegoat. Now that impression was confirmed. What a nasty farce. I guess also this is part of a soviet 'heritage'.
Blaming one person, justified or not, isn't going to fix the issues. The solutions are basic and common sense. At some point you'd hope that they actually cared about the lives of their soldiers.
They should if they want to call themselves professional.
In the Austrain army there is a paragraph in the ADV (short for Allgemeine Dienstvorschriften / General Service Regulations) which also states: "It must be taken into account that the design of the service operation promotes not only the performance but also the willingness to perform of all soldiers" (translation by Google)
Came across a related article on hardships inflicted on an infantry in 3 conflicts including current one in Ukraine. Substack link is here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-147391273.
I strongly suggest anyone further interested in the infantryman’s role in a conflict to read this article, if for nothing more than a historic perspective of hardships entailed by all parties, but mostly infantrymen. I was already somewhat aware of recruiting problems during the American Civil War, but what surprised me was the draining of recruits from training regiments to be sent prematurely to the front was a significant factor in WWII also. The staggering loses at Normandy (The 4th Infantry Division lost 95% of its infantry in the assault of Omaha Beach alone) resulted in, "Frantic efforts (being) made to muster more riflemen into battle. The Army had culled privates and NCOs from forty divisions while they were still training in the United States. Seventeen of those divisions had lost at least two-thirds of their infantry privates and countless junior officers, who then were sent overseas as individual replacements while recruits filled the ranks behind them. Not only were the original divisions devastated by this turnover – the 65th Infantry Division reported that some platoons had churned through as many as sixteen platoon leaders even before leaving the United States.” Unlike Ukraine though the "abundance of equipment and overwhelming firepower” exercised by the US Army was decisive factor obscuring any issues with infantry replacements.
Whatever assessment of military prowess with Ukraine, the fact that troops are being drained to the battlefield before they complete training or tactics being employed to keep the front line supplied is not in itself historically unique - to the misfortune of the 155th.
Good points Zodiac. Compared to WWII allies and enemies the US had almost unlimited manpower to draw on. Still, they used specialized branches like the Coastal Artillery Corps in 1944 to fill infantry billets, much like Grant did in 1864 in the Wilderness Campaign.
What do you intend when you say "deserted"? According to Stephan Korshak this doesn´t mean these soldiers are on the run in mass but that they mostly refuse to join the 155th to go or move to other brigades. Are your sources reporting something else? Are we talking here of people all of which will be prosecuted?
Some new recruits for the 155th just didn't want to be in the army. A lot were extremely concerned about the disorganization and the danger that would pose for their lives. Any individual that ended up with another unit will not be prosecuted.
So the number of real deserters is not known. Not that it´s changing anything... also some of the recruits had no original battalion to return to.
Everything is solved and won't happen in the future again because lesson is learned - E.g prosecution and punishment of deserters.
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/komanduvach-suhoputnih-viysk-zsu-vidreaguvav-1736250588.html
This debacle about the 155th Brigade has started to make a little noise in France as well. Even mainstream media spoke about it briefly. With the usual distortion. I feel bad about Butusov wasting some time with our big TV media only for them to narrowly focus their coverage on the fighters who deserted while on the French territory.
Alas it seems to be a systemic issue. MilitaryLand.net keeps publishing similar news for many Brigades among the 150s serie. And translated articles are just the tip of the iceberg.
Before that we had the same kind of news about the previous serie of NATO trained formations after the big "counter offensive" failed. Including the most high profiles brigades like the 47th who suffered from a chaotic management.
For exemple, this account on how what would become the 47th Brigade was trained from scratch multiple times for different equipment. And at the end, it was not even sent with its planned one despite being identified as the spearhead unit.
https://militaryland.net/news/offensive-through-the-eyes-of-a-soldier/
https://militaryland.net/news/47th-mechanized-brigade-was-never-meant-to-ride-leopards/
I cant find Ukrainian article denouncing how the High Command is simultaneously trying to raise new brigade and use said brigade as training center for others and thus failing both task. I am inclined to agree. The result appears to be the worst of both worlds : established brigade dont get sufficient reinforcement while the chaos in management means that the new ones are eventually sent without being combat capable.
Last November, there was an extensive and rather shocking article about the Krynky operation. It once again included account of complete chaos and mismanagement from the High Command.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/11/18/7484985/
Among many shocking parts, it appeared the Marine brigades and the marine corps suffered from consistent chaos during the their creation phases. And due to the way the troops were expanded in the suicidal Krynky operation, nearly all combattants trained in the UK appeared to be KIA, too wounded to join back the fight or decided to move to better led brigades.
It is a long article that would deserve a full discussion on its own. On a side note, the British delusions and bizarre reference to their past military heritage reminds me of the CENTCOM New Syrian Force debacle up to the self sabotaged al-Bukamal offensive. Tom and old timers will recognize what I am talking about.
It is outrageous how PR plans and mismanagement from the highest officer echelons are allowed to cause losses. Some of them are borderline treasons like the Navy and the new Marine Corps command failing to provide boats to marine brigade out of inter service rivalry.
If someone wants to comprehend the Ukrainian military laws and the difference between UAU and desertion I wrote an article. It helps to understand the situation in the AFU and the 155 brigade. The article is available in two languages (Українська, English) https://open.substack.com/pub/inspireddefenderofukraine1/p/unauthorised-abandonment-of-a-unit?r=4e3c5n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Thanks Tom and Don for all the work that these reports demand. Putin doesn’t want to negotiate, and this is why. He knows his forces are a mess, and he knows Kyiv’s are better, but also a mess. He also has the bios and evals of the Genstab U, and is not impressed. He sees that his weight in numbers is overcoming Ukrainian innovation and courage, and prays this will continue. He’s also betting on trump getting bored and frustrated with the whole thing, and letting Europe sort it out.
I quite think for the investigation there is 50% for "after the war" and 50% for blamimg the dead guy (as being dead is great feature for scapegoats).