Don's Weekly, 6 January 2025: Part 5 (Mobilisation in Russia & 155th Mech Brigade)

by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)

Good evening everybody!

Yes, this issue of Don’s Weekly has ‘even’ a Part 5. The reason are two very interesting topics. One is the Russian Recruiting, the other the sad… sigh… actually: tragic fate of the 155th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU.

Originally, Don prepared them in different fashion: I’ve kept them the way they’re written, but decided to group them together and post them as a separate piece, concluding this weekly. The reason might appear ‘oversimplifying’ - in sense of the two offering a ‘very nice comparison’.

Sure, both of us are talking a lot about incredible problems with incompetence and corruption within top ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces. I am working on something similar about the Russians, too - and then since two months - but many things came in between, and that feature is still incomplete. One way or the other, the point is: the Russians have a ‘mountain’ of problems on their own, and, considering the incompetence of Ukrainian generals, that’s better to remain that way. Or at least: Ukrainians (probably NATO too) can consider themselves lucky both the Russian political leadership and generals are outmatching their own incompetents - and that in several disciplines (except the one of bragging about fantasies, and claiming other people’s achievements for themselves, of course).

***

Russian Recruiting

Despite Russian claims of recruiting 30,000 men per month - and assessments that since late September 2022 this figure was ‘actually’ at around 25,000-30,000 per month - it turns out the actual figure is meanwhile closer to 18,000 per month. Their number of dead and seriously wounded is around 18-22,000 per month.

Thus, if you need them, that’s your ‘good news of the day’: this means that regardless of mobilisation meanwhile running for two years, the VSRF is continuously shrinking.

….at least as long as the rate of Russian casualties remains as high as official Kyiv claims it is…

Now a few of even better news.

Putin wants to avoid general conscription and the unrest it might cause. Thus, he’s relying on mobilising the poor and disadvantaged. Individuals that volunteer out of patriotism have dried up, so the volunteers now are motivated by signing bonuses. As volunteers motivated by money run out, the bonuses increase (which also increases inflation).

Each governor is given a monthly quota for recruits and meeting that quota is a key performance indicator. Russia offers a $4,600 bonus (as of July exchange rates) to sign up (up from $2,260 in September 2022). The governors then increase the bonus out of their regions budget in order to meet the quota. Some people travel to regions that offer more money and sign up there. Some regions, like Tartarstan, employ recruiters and pay them $1,000 for each person they accompany to an enlistment office.

In November 2024, the average monthly wage across the country was $787. The minimum monthly salary that isn’t augmented by a regional government is $2,400 per month. As of September, new recruits from the Urals would receive a one-time signing bonus of $16,100 while those from Moscow would receive a $21,200 bonus and a $4,800 monthly salary. In October, residents in Belgorod were offered a $31,200 bonus. In Khanty-Mansi autonomous district (1500 km east of Moscow), the bonus is $28,600.

Since the central bank is no longer raising interest rates to fight inflation, the value of the bonuses and pay will increasingly be worth less over time. That federal bonus of 400,000 rubles was worth $4,600 in July. Now it’s worth $3,600.* On the one hand, the one-time bonus is worth 20 years of income in some regions. On the other hand, it is widely known that joining the army brings with it the high risk of death, and the labor shortage means wages for civilian jobs are rising. At some point, those who wish to live will no longer be enticed by the large amounts of money that comes with death.

Wagner recruited prisoners with the promise that after six months of service, any that survived will be discharged with their debt to society paid. After the demise of Wagner, the Ministry of Defense took over and prisoners could still volunteer for Ukraine in order to leave prison but they would not be released from the army until the end of the war. Thus came into being the ‘Storm-Z’ units.

Russia has room for 106,000 people in their prisons and their prison population fell by 58,000 in 2023. 53 prisons were closed because of a lack of prisoners and 20 have been repurposed to house Ukrainian POWs.

Prisoners had been able to receive the federal 400,000 ruble one-time signing bonus for joining the army. That federal bonus has now been rescinded. *(The Meduza article used as a source lists it as a $3,500 bonus because that was the exchange rate at one point on 31 December when they posted the article. I listed $3,600 as the current exchange rate when writing on 1 January. The highly volatile ruble will likely have changed since then).

A law went into effect last October that allowed charges to be dropped for any crime at any point in the legal process if they agree to join the army. Of the 60,000 defendants in pretrail detention, the MoD expected 40% to be conscripted in this manner. Records show that so far 20% have accepted conscription as an alternative.

A former prosecutor who became an opposition activist decided to join the army because his history of putting people in jail made him a target in prison and his chance of survival was better on the front line. Online conversations weigh the benefits and risks of joining the army or serving a prison sentence. Two former mayors and the director of municipal funeral services, all from Vladivostok, announced they will join to avoid bribery and embezzlement charges. Several regional politicians joined for similar reasons, but the manner of service can vary depending on who you are. The Russian State Duma established Bars Kaskad (Cascade), in which 10 members of the United Russia Party or sons of VIPs are serving safely inside Russia while wiping their criminal slate clean.

Police are given a $100 bonus for every suspect they arrest that signs up for the army. In Moscow, the bonus is $500. If the accused refuse to sign up, they are threatened with being left to rot in jail. A 62-year-old gold medalist from Barcelona (race walking) has been charged with embezzlement of $30,000 from the soccer club he managed. No public evidence has been presented. His $1000 per month pension and accounts have been frozen. Sometimes he thinks about joining so his family can receive the money but the family tells him not to do so because it would be the same as admitting guilt and they will find another way.

A law went into effect on December 1st that cancels debt of up to $100,000 if an individual signs a military contract. This does not apply for people already in the army.

Immigrants that just received their citizenship are rounded up and sent to the army. Immigrants that are not citizens are given a choice between deportation or military service. These actions are taken even though there is a shortage of laborers. Others are promised jobs and pressed into the army.

11,000 North Koreans have been sent to Russia and some have speculated that up to 100,000 may be ultimately sent. That would account for five months of recruiting.

As mentioned above, Putin is trying to avoid an unpopular general draft by sending immigrants, prisoners and the poor that volunteer for money. But the casualties exceed the number of incoming recruits despite the increasing signing bonuses, and the bonuses will have to increase even more before losing value. Even with an increase in arrests, there are not enough prisoners to fill the void. There are not enough immigrants to sustain the army. There are not enough North Koreans.

At some point a draft will be required or the army will shrink. And what then?

***

Crest (also ‘shoulder patch’) of the ill-fated 155th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU

Tragedy of the 155th

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it was nobody else’s but Zelensky’s plan to form 14 new brigades (of course, his General of Fantastic News could not say ‘nyet’).

The idea was for Ukraine to supply the personnel, NATO to provide the equipment and training. The 155th Brigade was the first such brigade and it was to be armed and trained in France. The brigade began forming in March 2024, gathering personnel, assigning them positions and beginning the organization of the unit… Then Syrsky & Buddies kicked in.

Through July and August, 2,550 personnel was removed from the 155th and sent to other units that were low on men. Hand on heart: this is even making lots of sense. If existing experienced units are low on troops they should be replenished before new units are formed.

However, they didn’t stop trying to form this unit. It was Zelensky’s plan and Macron already announced they would equip and train it. Means: the generals had to ‘do something’. And the only thing they could do (because: why should Syrsky go to Zelensky and explain him his planning stands in no relation to reality?), was to keep on trying to form the new brigade. Even though they lost 2,550 men at the end of August and had to refill those positions, they were told they were leaving for France at the end of September.

Only 1,924 men were sent to France. Of those, 51 had more than one year of experience in the military. 1,414 had been in the army for less than two months. 150 hadn’t finished basic training. No one knew anyone.

Dear reader, please, be 10000% sure: you need not being a military veteran to imagine what a chaos this has created. Not the least.

One of the biggest impediments to recruiting is that people don’t want to die because of incompetent organizations. Before the 155th left for France, 935 men had deserted. While the brigade left for France, they continued to recruit personnel and 787 of them immediately deserted in October and November. 4,000 did not desert and trained in Ukraine. The tank unit trained in Poland.

The brigade units returned from France in mid-November. The brigade headquarters returned from training in France on November 30 after receiving the highest marks from their instructors. The commander planned to meet the 4,000 personnel that had been recruited in his absence and conduct additional training and familiarization with them. Instead, he discovered that his untrained and disorganized units were already being transferred to fight alongside other units in the Pokrovsk area.

And then came a cup on cake!

On December 4th, a military commission arrived and determined that the brigade commander was responsible for the chaos. He and many members of his staff were removed.

Of course! Lets blame people who couldn’t do anything about the chaos created by Syrsky & Buddies.

New commanders and staff replaced them. 198 more men deserted…

Meanwhile, newly assigned Leopard 2A4 tanks - obviously taken from storage where they’ve spent about 99% of time over the last 30 years - didn’t have grills in place to protect their weakest spot from drones and suffered losses in their first combat. The crews of precious, Caesar self-propelled guns hadn’t finished training so they practiced while firing combat missions. The 120mm mortar crews were issued defective weapons from Ukrainian factories and of the ten rounds test-fired, not a single one exploded. The unit was given 150 drones for six drone platoons when most drone platoons fly 40 drones a day. Ten days after entering combat, they were given $400,000 to buy drones. There was no electronic warfare equipment to jam enemy drones….

What a surprise then, and as tragic as it is: on December 30, the new commander died of a heart attack.

From its inception nine months ago, the unit has suffered the chaos imposed from above and the general staff disrupted any efforts of organization by the brigade leadership. They refused to equip the troops properly or let them train before throwing them piecemeal into combat without proper support. It is not a surprise that the unit suffered heavy casualties or that so many personnel chose to desert in order to save their lives.

An effective army is an army of systems. In Ukraine, there are many effective brigades. There are just no effective generals in the GenStab-U: a general staff is supposed to multiply the combat power of the brigades through multi-unit coordination (divisions and corps), effective logistical planning and execution, and establishing higher-level military objectives. In this case there have been so many instances in which the leadership above the brigade levels was not doing its required jobs that the list is endless.

BTW, this extends up through Syrsky and to Zelensky.

But, don’t worry: the SBU is opening an investigation into the issue….