I understand that you are happiest when you believe everyone else is wrong but you don't need to put words in my mouth to show everyone what a great military mind you are. That much is self-evident.
It's like they have to rent apartments, look for jobs in the foreign country they left for, and in addition they are hated for being Russians. And Turkey and some Asian countries cancelled their visas (probably after Putin asked them).
Yes, reading now that as of May, 40-45% returned and added as much as 1.2% of the 3.6% of the 2023 economic growth, even though they are only 0.3% of the employed population.
What if wishful thinking would have simple logical grounds? For example, there is a lot of people who thinks that the war is ending soon (2-3 weeks or months, whatever, the current reason is seasonal). These people are real, they still think that way despite all their previous prognoses failed. Perhaps they would not believe that the war is going to last another 2-5 years even if the clear, irrefutable evidences would be in the front of their eyes. They say that the human mind is designed in the way that it simply cannot accept the reality that contradicts his beliefs. So if you believe that the war is going to end soon, if you cannot accept the fact that it can go on for years, you will find corresponding evidences for yourself. And if the society believes that the war is ending soon why bother then?
P.s. I have modest assumptions that even if russia is going to run out of cannon barrels till the end of 2026 or whenever - it is not going to sit and watch to meet the ending of war and next possible wars with the bare ass - they obviously may come up with a decision and may already working on it - in the contrary of our political management that too often only watches and reacts.
There's plenty of recent and historical evidence that demonstrates that some humans seek a state of ignorance or works hard to construct a mindset that conforms to their hopes and fears instead of reality.
I cannot predict what Russia will do in the future. Their current actions suggest that they have a urgency to achieve some level of victory soon, whatever victory means to them.
Yeah, I saw that. Even when these statements have been around for a couple of years, and evidence on the battlefield confirms the statements, it still amazes me how many people willingly act against their own self-interests.
Also, as far as I understand, total reported losses are not including Kursk (around 10K) and could be arguably generally underreported by 10-20%. Which brings the total to 55-65K. Or, in other words possibly 30K monthly deficit to maintain the forces at a stable number. Mobilisation is not likely to be declared in the next 2-3 months. Otherwise I do not know how the trend could change.
I do not want to be optimistic on that matter. Just sharing what came up.
Still I got a feeling that overall situation will change before the New Year significantly.
You're right, the news is the news whether it is good or bad.
Russia is pushing hard. Over the last couple of months they've increased their probing attacks across the front and then pushed where they sensed a weakness. They are expending more than they can sustain but have seen territorial progress, so they continue to attack.
Given the expenditure of resources, the semi-fluid battlefield in some sectors, the changes and uncertainty in political leadership, the strategic bombing campaigns of both sides, and the evolving economic conditions, I agree that there is a wide range of possibilities in the next few months.
I understand that you are happiest when you believe everyone else is wrong but you don't need to put words in my mouth to show everyone what a great military mind you are. That much is self-evident.
Thanks a lot
>> the emigration of a million people
- AFAIK half of them has returned
Interesting. I didnt know that. A pity really.
It's like they have to rent apartments, look for jobs in the foreign country they left for, and in addition they are hated for being Russians. And Turkey and some Asian countries cancelled their visas (probably after Putin asked them).
https://meduza.io/feature/2023/01/18/dyadya-vova-poprosil-dyadyu-erdogana-uslozhnit-zhizn-rossiyanam
https://meduza.io/news/2024/08/14/turtsiya-otkazhet-v-poluchenii-vida-na-zhitelstva-tem-kto-priehal-kak-turist
https://meduza.io/news/2024/05/04/rbk-odin-iz-krupneyshih-bankov-turtsii-snova-uzhestochil-usloviya-otkrytiya-schetov-rossiyanam
Becoming an illegal migrant is a reason for returning. Tourist visa in Turkey is valid for 6 months.
Yes, reading now that as of May, 40-45% returned and added as much as 1.2% of the 3.6% of the 2023 economic growth, even though they are only 0.3% of the employed population.
https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy/
I suppose the good news is that returning Russians are a dwindling source of economic health.
Thanks for this intersting and sober analysis.
What if wishful thinking would have simple logical grounds? For example, there is a lot of people who thinks that the war is ending soon (2-3 weeks or months, whatever, the current reason is seasonal). These people are real, they still think that way despite all their previous prognoses failed. Perhaps they would not believe that the war is going to last another 2-5 years even if the clear, irrefutable evidences would be in the front of their eyes. They say that the human mind is designed in the way that it simply cannot accept the reality that contradicts his beliefs. So if you believe that the war is going to end soon, if you cannot accept the fact that it can go on for years, you will find corresponding evidences for yourself. And if the society believes that the war is ending soon why bother then?
P.s. I have modest assumptions that even if russia is going to run out of cannon barrels till the end of 2026 or whenever - it is not going to sit and watch to meet the ending of war and next possible wars with the bare ass - they obviously may come up with a decision and may already working on it - in the contrary of our political management that too often only watches and reacts.
There's plenty of recent and historical evidence that demonstrates that some humans seek a state of ignorance or works hard to construct a mindset that conforms to their hopes and fears instead of reality.
I cannot predict what Russia will do in the future. Their current actions suggest that they have a urgency to achieve some level of victory soon, whatever victory means to them.
A fresh insider info about "meat assaults" - how the commanders treat the volunteers who signed their contracts for money https://meduza.io/news/2024/11/05/deputat-gosdumy-i-byvshiy-glava-samoprovozglashennoy-dnr-aleksandr-boroday-nazval-rossiyskih-dobrovoltsev-na-voyne-lishnimi-lyudmi-i-pehotoy-vtorogo-sorta
Yeah, I saw that. Even when these statements have been around for a couple of years, and evidence on the battlefield confirms the statements, it still amazes me how many people willingly act against their own self-interests.
Dear Don, I do not know how realistic the below is, but here is view on the current grouping of ru forces: https://x.com/Kartinamaslom5/status/1853740509409272073
Also, as far as I understand, total reported losses are not including Kursk (around 10K) and could be arguably generally underreported by 10-20%. Which brings the total to 55-65K. Or, in other words possibly 30K monthly deficit to maintain the forces at a stable number. Mobilisation is not likely to be declared in the next 2-3 months. Otherwise I do not know how the trend could change.
I do not want to be optimistic on that matter. Just sharing what came up.
Still I got a feeling that overall situation will change before the New Year significantly.
You're right, the news is the news whether it is good or bad.
Russia is pushing hard. Over the last couple of months they've increased their probing attacks across the front and then pushed where they sensed a weakness. They are expending more than they can sustain but have seen territorial progress, so they continue to attack.
Given the expenditure of resources, the semi-fluid battlefield in some sectors, the changes and uncertainty in political leadership, the strategic bombing campaigns of both sides, and the evolving economic conditions, I agree that there is a wide range of possibilities in the next few months.