Dear Don, thank you for reports! Detailed, insightful, produced with care.
I would like to comment on economy side, those economists predicting quick downfall after sanctions are like generals predicting fall of UA army in two weeks.
Economy is very much like human body, means it is vulnerable, but much more resilient then we used to think. And the key is "quick collapse". If it has not happened then nothing would happen further, means when changes are slow, people get used to it. And there is quite a way to go to soviet style economy. It could take decades of slow degradation.
So even looking from that angle of economy alone is distracting. What economists might do instead is to look for ways to impact military production, how to make it less effective, how to disrupt production chains. Then those sanctions might be useful. There is a lot there, means military production network is not homogeneous, some aspects are more impactful then other, and some may give critical leverage.
My impression is that the economy is under ever-increasing pressure that will make things more difficult as time progresses without any definite expiration date.
Dear Don, yes, it will make things more difficult, but nothing critical. Economy is a system of relationship. Those are not disrupted by current approach to sanctions. Imagine 90s where one type of economy went to another, all relationship disrupted, barter and all. It took 10 years to adjust.
In this case there is no disruption, just minor impact in certain sectors. Generally economy is not affected. Even if it was, the GDP per capita and wages are still two times higher then in Ukraine, with prices generally lower. So at best it would be a bit worse then it was. And remember that energy, one of components of prices, would be cheap no matter what. And capital investment, important for further growth, instead of West would come from China, they for a long time want that.
And again, it is a question of speed of changes, as people get adjusted and used to it. So one thing if their wage goes down 2 times tomorrow, another is in 10 years.
" A North Korean anti-tank system was spotted in the Kharkiv region. First deployed around 2010, the wheeled vehicle carries eight anti-tank missiles with a reported range varying from 10 to 24 km."
A presumable video of UA AS-90 being hit by NKorea missile.
тупо спам. Сбрось ссылку на видео где ваши пидары убивают пленного украинца с четвертованием и обезглавливанием. Вестерны узнают какая у вас армия убийц и садистов.
Hah, it's *exactly* that public sentiment which goes "hey, wages are going up because labor is scarce, I'll have money forever" that drives an unstoppable wage-price spiral. Putin is sacrificing stability tomorrow to extend an unwinnable war today. Brilliant strategic choice.
What's so hilarious about the US terror of russia collapsing if it loses in Ukraine is that the thing is doomed in the long run as it is. Just like Americans would be better off if D.C. went up in smoke tomorrow, about the only thing that can save russia now is the razing of Moscow.
Wagner had the right idea - too bad they chickened out.
Probably Russian's fighting for Ukraine, they've already lost vehicles. Russian conscripts have been captured and an Mi-8 and Ka-52 have been reported shot down. Ukrainian forces will likely withdraw at some point. In the meantime, there are Ukrainian brigades that are short on personnel and equipment and Pokrovsk is unstable.
Lots of reports indeed. Probably some kind of feint, whatever forces are used. Distract and stress the Russian command structure maybe. They will of course withdraw.
Dear Don, thank you for reports! Detailed, insightful, produced with care.
I would like to comment on economy side, those economists predicting quick downfall after sanctions are like generals predicting fall of UA army in two weeks.
Economy is very much like human body, means it is vulnerable, but much more resilient then we used to think. And the key is "quick collapse". If it has not happened then nothing would happen further, means when changes are slow, people get used to it. And there is quite a way to go to soviet style economy. It could take decades of slow degradation.
So even looking from that angle of economy alone is distracting. What economists might do instead is to look for ways to impact military production, how to make it less effective, how to disrupt production chains. Then those sanctions might be useful. There is a lot there, means military production network is not homogeneous, some aspects are more impactful then other, and some may give critical leverage.
My impression is that the economy is under ever-increasing pressure that will make things more difficult as time progresses without any definite expiration date.
Dear Don, yes, it will make things more difficult, but nothing critical. Economy is a system of relationship. Those are not disrupted by current approach to sanctions. Imagine 90s where one type of economy went to another, all relationship disrupted, barter and all. It took 10 years to adjust.
In this case there is no disruption, just minor impact in certain sectors. Generally economy is not affected. Even if it was, the GDP per capita and wages are still two times higher then in Ukraine, with prices generally lower. So at best it would be a bit worse then it was. And remember that energy, one of components of prices, would be cheap no matter what. And capital investment, important for further growth, instead of West would come from China, they for a long time want that.
And again, it is a question of speed of changes, as people get adjusted and used to it. So one thing if their wage goes down 2 times tomorrow, another is in 10 years.
" A North Korean anti-tank system was spotted in the Kharkiv region. First deployed around 2010, the wheeled vehicle carries eight anti-tank missiles with a reported range varying from 10 to 24 km."
A presumable video of UA AS-90 being hit by NKorea missile.
https://t.me/bmpd_cast/20290
тупо спам. Сбрось ссылку на видео где ваши пидары убивают пленного украинца с четвертованием и обезглавливанием. Вестерны узнают какая у вас армия убийц и садистов.
That specific video has been posted on March 2024, its just another reupload to pass it as a new kill.
Hah, it's *exactly* that public sentiment which goes "hey, wages are going up because labor is scarce, I'll have money forever" that drives an unstoppable wage-price spiral. Putin is sacrificing stability tomorrow to extend an unwinnable war today. Brilliant strategic choice.
What's so hilarious about the US terror of russia collapsing if it loses in Ukraine is that the thing is doomed in the long run as it is. Just like Americans would be better off if D.C. went up in smoke tomorrow, about the only thing that can save russia now is the razing of Moscow.
Wagner had the right idea - too bad they chickened out.
Lots of social media reports of an Ukraine incursion at least 7 km deep in the Kursk region. Very hard to believe, anybody have good information?
Probably Russian's fighting for Ukraine, they've already lost vehicles. Russian conscripts have been captured and an Mi-8 and Ka-52 have been reported shot down. Ukrainian forces will likely withdraw at some point. In the meantime, there are Ukrainian brigades that are short on personnel and equipment and Pokrovsk is unstable.
Lots of reports indeed. Probably some kind of feint, whatever forces are used. Distract and stress the Russian command structure maybe. They will of course withdraw.
Thank you Don for this weeks reports interesting
Thank you very much.