Don's Weekly, 4 March 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Meanwhile, it’s already early March. Time is passing by very quickly when there’s so much going on. Things are up to speed also because of a relatively good weather - in much of Europe, and so also in Ukraine: most of the mud season is over, the ground is firm: indeed, the weather feels like what we’re used to have in late March or early April…. weeks later.

And since there is so much to explain, let us get straight to the point.

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Integrated Air Defense Systems

Given the multiple air defense systems Ukraine received, it made sense to integrate the various western systems with each other and with Ukraine’s existing systems. Part of that integration involved the ability of different missiles being used in different launchers. The Norwegian NASAMS systems was designed with that capability in mind but other systems have also been modified. The other part of the integration is the software that links various radar data with different command centers to different launchers. The integration has been called the FrankenSAM system after Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein monster that was created from various body parts.

The US had been working on that issue for several years when they ran a 2019 test at White Sands, New Mexico. They were testing the capability to detect, track and engage multiple threats at the same time. The components used in the integrated air defense test were air and ground components from the Air Force, Marine Corps and Army. These components were an F-35 jet, a USMC TPS-59 radar, Patriot and Sentinel radars, the Link 16 tactical data network used by NATO and other countries, and two Patriot launchers using PAC-2 missiles.

Two low flying cruise missiles were used a targets and they flew in different directions to attack different targets. The multiple air defense sensors tracked the targets at different times based on the location of the cruise missiles, the terrain around the cruise missiles (which could block a sensor) and the capabilities of the sensors. No single sensor could track both targets throughout their entire flight, yet the data from all the sensors created a single composite track of both targets throughout their entire flight. After the integrated system calculated engagement solutions, the soldiers executed them and both targets were destroyed nearly simultaneously. Simultaneous launches decreases the reaction time any target might have, as well as increase the chances of a launching component surviving any enemy SEAD activity.

It is likely that a modified version of this system has been used to integrate Ukraine’s multiple air defense assets. Tom has explained many times in the past how destroying one component of an air defense system rarely renders the rest of the components useless: If you knock out one launcher, there might be three, four, five, six or more other launchers that are still operating. If you knock out one target tracking radar that controls three launchers, there might be another target tracking radar that controls three other launchers. That was true for one isolated system with multiple components, and that is true even more so nowadays, when one can operate SAM-systems in a wide variety of configurations.

If multiple isolated Ukrainian air defense systems were integrated into an air defense network, these capabilities are multiplied. Every active radar system in the network - which could include aircraft, even the input from NATO intelligence gathering station on the ground and aircraft and UAVs underway outside the Ukrainian airspace - would provide data to every command center in the network. They, in turn, could determine which missiles in which launchers would be the best choice to attack a particular target.

In ground warfare, reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance is vital. The same is true in aerial warfare. Radars are needed to detect an aerial threat, but simply looking for targets exposes detection radars to attack, so older or cheaper radars can be used in this role. If one of these is knocked out, then a dormant detection radar nearby can be activated. Their placement depends on the expected direction of attacks, the terrain that could block their views, and the expected enemy capabilities to engage and destroy the detection radars. If all the detection radars in a sector were destroyed, it could create a gap through which other enemy aerial attacks could pass without timely notice.

To track and engage the targets, better radars are needed to determine the precise location and speed of the target. These radars can remain dormant until the target is within the engagement range of the missile. Then the tracking radars can be turned on and pass the data to the missile. Once the missile is launched and is tracking the target on its own, the tracking radar can be turned off and moved. This limits the time in which the tracking radar can be detected and engaged, increasing its chances of survival.

The various enemy targets could be assessed and engaged by the cheapest missile(s) in range that would be judged effective, and there could be different missiles with different capabilities loaded in the same launcher. If the enemy targets were drones and cruise missile, the method of engagement could also include machine guns and Gepard or Slinger cannon, if they are within range, or even electronic warfare spoofing to gain functional control over the drone or cruise missile.

An integrated network of system components is significantly more effective than isolated air defense systems. This is the probable reason why Ukrainian air defenses are claiming more aerial shootdowns, many of which have been verified. It is also likely to impact future air defense development and production where advanced components can be created and plugged into an integrated network of existing components rather than needing to create new advanced isolated air defense systems.

Here is the Northrop Grumman advertisement of that successful 2019 test complete with uplifting music:

Northrop Grumman Integrated Air Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS) Flight Test

(…to be continued…)