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IT's avatar

Btw this towed howitzer cost less than 400k€ (28k€ missing for the 4th one and 2 more are going to be donated after money collection)

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Donald Hill's avatar

Each article I read says $1.5 million based on an estimate from a year ago, but often these articles are just copying an original article. 400k euros would be even better. Did you hear that price from the 47th Brigade?

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IT's avatar

My mistake here is the link https://www.zbraneproukrajinu.cz/kampane/baterie

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Donald Hill's avatar

Ah, D-30s.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

As ever, thank you , Don.

Btw, Ukraine already has access to military-grade satellite imaging and it's not American. Finland's ICEYE (https://www.iceye.com/sar-data) has three synthetic aperture radar satellites that operate at resolutions down to 25cm. When it became apparent that Bayraktars had become obsolete in 2022, money raised to buy some for Ukraine was instead used to secure access to ICEYE's intel. IIRC, the Baltics are now paying, or the Ukrainian government is paying for it directly. Or both. And Rheinmetall has just gone into a consortium with ICEYE to build satellites. That will, of course, take years.

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Donald Hill's avatar

Europe and Ukraine would survive without US satellite data, but the more coverage, even commercial coverage, the better. And the US has some capabilities, such as with SIGINT, that no one else currently has.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Russia survives without those capabilities. We can. Of course it will be painful to do so, but what is the alternative!

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Martin Belderson's avatar

I'm curious. How do we know the US has SIGINT capabilities no else has? The UK flies JOINT RIVET missions over the Black Sea. The French do similar. That's the same as the US. Both France and the UK have military ISR satellites. Its seems unlikely they're not tasked to provide their feeds to Ukraine, if only through cut-outs. And it seems unlikely the US is far in advance of those. When it comes to SIGINT, what can the USA do better than, say, GCHQ other than collect more of it from around the world? There is a huge advantage in that but it becomes irrelevant when we're looking at one conflict between two neighbours.

Sure, people will say; "But the US...," and vaguely wave their hands as if that's evidence. But it's not. It would be good to know why the US is so superior other than being excellent at selling their mystique through PR.

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Donald Hill's avatar

They spend more on intelligence. They collect more and process more. I won't give you specifics and you're free to believe as you will.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Well that does point in the direction of having more money and data. Which is capabilities. One does wonder what they get out of it. But I guess that is classified. And probably not something told to the highest ups. They are already signaling too much.

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Marton Sunrise's avatar

You wrote, " The US could still unilaterally lift some sanctions, such as allowing Russian banks to rejoin the SWIFT network."

However, SWIFT is an EU system based in Belgium, so the US cannot do this unilaterally.

I just read China is blocking the US BlackRock company from buying the Panama ports at each end of the Canal, citing anti-monopoly reasons

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Donald Hill's avatar

Both are true statements.

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Rafallo's avatar

One statement says they can do it, the other that they cannot. How can they be true at the same time?

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Donald Hill's avatar

His statement about SWIFT and about the Chinese efforts are both true.

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James Touza's avatar

The proposed deal is for the Hong Kong company to sell All ports world wide to Black Rock, not just Panama, which is why Beijing is saying, "wait a minute"......

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Melchior's avatar

Diplomacy

«Despite Trump calling Zelensky a “dictator without election”, he says he is very angry and pissed off after Putin said Zelensky is not a legitimate leader» – Putin himself is an illegitimate leader, but a real military junta. I will remind some of the history here, because Yeltsin seized power with the help of the army, and then without any elections declared Putin his successor. After that, Putin pulled up his St. Petersburg criminal clan of bandits and former KGB officers, ousted competitors, seized all the media by force, completely protecting the entire information field. With the help of security forces and crime, he is still in power and is the center that balances all the clans. Every election is completely rigged and is a profanation. And whoever disagrees with the results of such elections immediately ends up either in prison, or in mental hospitals, or they are killed. All demonstrations against Putin are immediately met by the regime's dogs in the form of law enforcement agencies, who disperse everyone with batons.

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

Yup.....

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Inspired defender of Ukraine's avatar

It's my point of view and I don't impose that I'm right.

A couple of weeks ago, the chief of the German spy agency Mr. Kahl gave an interview to DW.

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-spy-chiefbelievesus-cooperation-will-continue/video-71881920

He said that if the war ends up earlier than Europe is ready, it can be a catastrophe. He expects full European readiness will be achieved in 2029-2030. Also, all European leaders denied that they want to overthrow Putin's regime. So it provokes a thought in my head. The West will help Ukraine only in measures not to fall or defeat in the war. The aid will send a drop by a drop. Ukraine shouldn't be defeated before 2029.

Tom many times said that the West can do more than it has done. For why? The West shouldn't spend its resources in vain. The West should be ready for 2029.

So the European leaders aren't zombie idiots, they are dissemblers, and all of their actions are on purpose. It means that all European values like humanity, justice, and human rights are for their citizens, not abroad. Also, it proves the genocide in Palestine.

Maybe I'm mistaken, and I have a good imagination, or I'm tired of the war.

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Donald Hill's avatar

There could be multiple reasons that are valid.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Definitely. And tactically EU has little to gain from stating such a goal publicly. Supporting Ukraine is another question.

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prorock's avatar

Spy agencies have their own game to play, and their own goals, and these goals does not have to be aligned with the goals of any of the European leaders, who also have their own games to play and their own goals.

What one German chief spy says may be or may not be aligned with the way the German leaders say or do, but you can be sure that there are plenty of European leaders who have completely opposite views.

European politics is too diverse and too big to be interpreted by listening to just one CDU bureaucrat.

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Inspired defender of Ukraine's avatar

Perhaps you're right. But 2030 appears in the European and national documents literally a million times. Also, Agenda 2030 was presented a few days ago.

https://eu4ukraine.eu/en/media-en/publications-en/ukraine-will-get-access-to-safe.html

https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/sustainable-development-goals/eu-approach-sdgs-implementation_en

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prorock's avatar

2030 has nothing to do with Ukraine. UN Agenda 2030 was established in 2015. EU has a permanent observer status at the UN, and as such is committed in following its goals.

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Inspired defender of Ukraine's avatar

I apologize, I misinformed you. Not Agenda 2030, but the Readiness 2030. Von der Leyen broadly presented this program. It's not a play of different intelligence services. The first link.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Not disagreeing with you, but there are alternative interpretations. Regarding the spy chef and the time line, well he may be right and he may also simply prefer to send out a message of urgency. I don’t trust his motives here, but it is interesting to get his analysis. Regarding the European leader’s assessment of regime change in Russia I think that today they all (except Orban) wants the breakdown. But it’s not in their interest to say so. It would be used in Russian propaganda, it would look bad towards the USA, it would be like… well giving away trade secrets in a trade negotiation. You don’t tell the enemy what you are willing to concede before the negotiation do you? (Unless you are Donald Trump). So the European leader’s official policy is: we want to support Ukraine so they are in the best position to negotiate. Unofficial they are all fed up with Russia but we don’t need to say so now.

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

If that is the cynical plan of Europe, then I don't think it will work. Reason: Russia is executing this war in a do-or-die fashion. It will tear itself apart before 2029 if it continues to behave like this. It gives itself no options but to achieve maximalist goals.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Thanks for all three updates. A little depressed with the reports from the front, while there is no collapse Russia is advancing. At a snails pace and with heavy losses. I know. But still. I want this stopped. And more battalion sized counter attacks. Or corps sized for that matter. And more signals of reform in the Ukrainian army. Other news are better. I reposted the 82 percent wants to continue the fight link, I think the debate here in Norway is totally of rails. Today a former CiC of Norwegian Army was on national television telling us that Europe couldn’t fight Russia. If Europe means EU, Uk, Norway (just so we don’t sit it out) we most definitely can. We wouldn’t like it, would take some time, but we can do it.

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Lord of the cursed river's avatar

I think that Trump is completely unpredictable. Or he is stupid . Or he is crazy. I don't know. His team like a Scary movie about the US government. I just cannot imagine what we should expect from them next. Will Trump sit on a nuclear button or accidentally gift all their Navy to China? One guy adds a reporter to a secret chat. Another guy takes his wife to a secret meeting. The other one sends National Guard to make sure that all cactuses in California are watered... But everything is fine and there is nothing to see here. Now they want Ukraine to sign some kind of completely crazy perpetual deal which would give up all strategic resources and everything that could earn money, to the US hands. No end term - what kind of crazy shit is that? Of course the probability of signing such a deal is quite low. And Trump already said that that would be a bad idea not to sign it which is crazy as well, especially taking into account that his terms and words are constantly changing. So we may expect that the US would stop the aid and information exchange, and we also could expect that they would add fees to all countries that buy russian oil, but wouldn't that be crazy as well? So I think that at the end simply nothing is going to happen and the war will last another year or two at least, or more. Any good news? Europe countries with batalion-large armies are safe till russians are busy with Ukraine.

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Nick Fotis's avatar

Perun has posted a nice video about how the Europe could replace most US military equipment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFoJGHZEqAk

Oh, and remember the old discussions about the unsuitability of the Mirage 2000 for low level attacks? The recent videos from Greece might be interesting (familiarization flight):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIxtqEloDGQ

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Michaelangelo's avatar

Good video of Perun, actually some commenters of the video might be right about the integrated or European centric cooperative manufacturing schemes in the video, it saves a lot of time and money for the specific European countries ON WHAT NOW to co produce or focus/leverage their own DIB manufacturing to produce the defence material ASAP within the next 3-4 years if the European REArm project/budget is started with contracts this year.

The feasibility studies/research would be shorter if the European countries will take their cues IF EVER from the video, of course just a possible use of the video to quickly arm Europe PLUS others (UK, Aus, Canada, Japan, etc ) TO reduce dependence on US DIB materials for an effective self reliant European PLUS others defense capability.

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Nick Fotis's avatar

In my opinion, trying to interpret Trump sayings rationally is a waste of our keystrokes.

That guy is completely unpredictable, so better to focus on his actions than his words.

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arthur brogard's avatar

Excellent article. Bad news, overall, for Russia I feel. Sadly. I favour Russia/Donbas Ukrainians side very much.

Thought I might throw in a thought about drones: seems to me there's a suspicious lack of anti drone weapons.

We only need miniaturised anti aircraft/anti missile technology don't we? Freed of many constraints (talking fpv's, local anti tank and such here not big drones but the small stuff that is stopping advances and changing the face of the war on the battlefield) such as speed of the target, distance of the target. ECM of the target.

We could have a weapon that is designed to bring down any drone within a mere km.

easily identifiable either automatically or by an operator using a linked 'sighter' . Once locked on the target it is simply line of sight and a relatively big black blob in the sight screen.

Either fast munitions that explode close enough or actually get there quick enough to hit

or munitions that can correct to stay on target to some degree

or perhaps better still simply a 'gun', a launch tube, that can aim that well and that's easily obtained today.

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

Yes indeed. Poor, poor Russia. You know, Russia and the USA are kind of going through the same thing right now - it goes in stages- #1 export your toxicity to the world #2 get pushed back #3 go through internal strife #4 go through a long and painful process of improvement and moral maturation. Both are in 1-2, starting 3 right now.

If you really wanted the best for Russia, you would help this process along.

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arthur brogard's avatar

'if I really' What makes you doubt it?

Your 'process' I find somewhat pointless inasmuch as it is too vague, too broad, too unrestricted, undefined temporally to be of any precise use.

What it really says is that things grow then wane and die.

Instead of 'die' it says morally mature but that's unproven and anyway can be interpreted, should be interpreted, as the death of that which went before.

America has certainly exported a malign influence on the world since wwii but has never been 'pushed back' until, maybe, hopefully, now.

Rather it rotted from within during all its 'waxing' time.

I see no evidence of moral maturation in the remains of the British empire nor any other. I hope they are there. I'd particularly hope it for the Persian. But I don't know of it and I know the world generally never speaks of any such.

Internal violent strife is without merit and should be avoided, not 'helped along'.

But of course internal voicing of alternative actions, policies, attitudes and the revealing of pertinent and important truths is a kind of internal potential stress points that are to be encouraged. With care.

I in fact do that as much as I can.

I seek to publish truth and spend a lot of time reiterating the same truths over and over again in an attempt to get them to spread through a hostile environment.

I do things like suggest what people could/should do. That's called being 'proactive'. A thing I see very, very little of. None on the part of msm of course and virtually none in alt-media, too.

Here for instance, a frequent post of mine. If you really loved america you would promote it:

https://abrogard.com/blog/2023/12/25/dont-write-to-congress/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_voting_system

https://abrogard.com/blog/2024/10/14/how-about-this-to-bring-truth-to-the-elections/

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

Thank you for explaining more your motives and actions.

I agree about internal processes that countries should go through, and violence is always to be avoided.

But sheesh, surely you are open to the accounts of what is happening in occupied Ukrainian territories? Will Ukraine ever persecute Russia loyal folks in recovered territories more than Russia is persecuting Ukraine loyal folks now? I am convinced not. This is why I want all territory to be reclaimed, among other reasons.

Putin has sick goals with sick methods and the population lacks the courage to oppose him. Once this is all over, Russia needs to change so that this doesn't happen again.

Like the open source voting idea, was thinking of something similar.

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arthur brogard's avatar

To me you appear identical with something like 99% of 'Ukraine supporters'.

( Or Spaniards ), see? The people.

To me a nation does not exist without the people.

To those 'supporters' nations exist without people. Hence they can call for 'fighting to the last man'.

Nonsense.

They don't know what they are doing, what they are saying, what the effect of their words will be.

But what they are supporting is not people at all. It is the Kiev regime, in fact.

But even before we get to that truth there is the clear overt thrust of their intent: their 'support'. It is to 'Kiev Ukraine' as against 'Donbas Ukraine'.

They are supporting a Civil war.

They are supporting a war intended to subjugate 10 million Donbas Ukrainians.

They wholeheartedly support 'Kiev Ukraine' and care not a blind jot for the 10 million Ukrainians. 'support Ukraine' to them does NOT mean support that 10 million.

Hence they are ludicrous.

How about Ukrainians in 'occupied territories' ? HOw about them? They fought alone for eight years against the Kiev regime. The desperately asked Russia for help and it was eight years before Russia came to help. After that for the first year it was Donbas soldiers manning the front and Russian guns in the rear. Now they fight side by side.

Every Donbas Ukrainian who owned land or property, a business, a farm, before the Russians came still owns it. Unless the Kiev Ukrainians have killed him. And he still owns his own government. And his government with his approval has chosen to federate their counry with the Russian Federation.

Donbas Ukrainians are happy.

With their friends, allies, families, government, everything: except Kiev Ukraine and the usa etc.

Putin said time and time again stop threatening us and stay out of Nato and that's an end to it. Ignored. He proposed agreements. One of them was officially agreed to - the Minsk - and then deliberately broken by the liars and murderers of the west.

What goals has Putin? He told you. Again and again. You won't listen.

Accounts are one thing, truth is another most of the time. You want accounts listen to the accounts of the deliberate false flag bucha massacre, the accounts of the Trades Hall fire, the Maidan massacres, more recently the Kursk Sudzha murders. See the videos on Telegram. See the accounts of the Kiev shelling of Zapo nuclear plant while the inspectors were actually there ! So blatant that even with every attempt to whitewash them: every attempt, in the end they had to admit, the inspectors, had to admit it was not the Russians. False flag, civilian attacks, atrocity, lying: all the hallmarks of Kiev and usa and uk.

Just look around:

here's a couple at random from my text file of urls.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/76833

mindless attacks on civilians in moscow with drones

https://t.me/c/2172990398/4659?single

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/76778?single

You got to wake up. There's one good side and one bad side and one victim. Good side: Russia, Brics. Bad side: usa, nato. Victim: Ukraine/Ukrainian people.

And what enables this? What allows this to happen?

Dumb ignorami who think they are 'supporting ukraine'.

It's insane. Insane.

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Piotr's avatar

"65% of the components must be European, which includes Ukraine and Norway." Interesting omission: UK. So, MDBA will not be able to participate in the program, so no modern rocket artillery. The whole 800 billion program is not about extending European military capabilities, but to pump money into German and French military industry, what is supposed to save declining economies of those countries. Pathetic move.

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Michaelangelo's avatar

Thanks again Tom and Don, the training infrastructure and personnel developments or improvements by the ZSU would be the most important development CONCURRENTLY with the Corps reorganization and BUILD UP would be something to watch in the next few months/weeks before the hardening of the ground conditions.

Is there any new links with the ZSU training/recruit basic trng program improvement supposed to be implemented last year 2024 with is explained by the link in Part 2?

Thanks again Tom and Don.

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Yieggie's avatar

Factory in TX can produce 30,000 shells per month, while the stated in 2024 US target is to reach somehow 100,000 shells/month by the end of 2025. Currrent output is likely 66,000.

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

Thanks Don and Tom

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Cliff Pennalligen's avatar

Well, you might be interested to know that i am one who calls nationalism a disease. You've obviously built your view up over time and I'm not going to shift it with an exchange of words on substack. You've got some truth to what you say, and I don't say that the west is without (many) faults, nor that Russia is without merit, but ultimately your views are unbalanced.

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