Don's Weekly, 31 March 2025: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

***

Russia

The rate at which Russian tanks are being restored from storage has dropped by almost four times in comparison to the rate from 2022. This reflects the fact that the remaining tanks in storage are in very poor condition. 2000 tanks that were in hangars and protected from the weather were the first to be restored, and 2069 tanks in open storage have also been restored.

Those restored tanks represent 54% of the tanks that can be restored, but from February 2024 to February 2025 only 342 tanks were removed from storage and repaired. The rate of restoration was 120 vehicles per month in 2022; 90 per month in 2023, and 44-75 per month in 2024. At that point the repairs no longer kept pace with the losses. As of this year, only 30-35 tanks are being restored each month.

From 2022 to 2024, only 164 T-90M tanks were produced. Tank losses declined from 300-400 per month (Sep-Nov 2024) to 200-240 a month (Dec 2024-January 2025). Because there are fewer armored vehicles, Russia is using more civilian cars in assaults.

***

Ukraine

82% of Ukrainians believe that they should keep fighting under any circumstances, even if the US ends support. 8% would be more likely to surrender if the US stops support.

The 3rd Assault Brigade is now officially the anchor brigade of the 3rd Army Corps. The corps commander, former 3rd Brigade commander Beletsky, discussed the goals of the 3rd Corps. There’s still no word on the other brigades that will be part of the corps.

Ukraine says that one company can produce 1.4 million drones a year and a total of 150 companies can produce 5 million drones a year but the lack of funding prevents them from producing their full capacity. The source here says 2 million drones were produced last year and they will buy 4.5 million drones this year, 30,000 of which are to be long-ranged drones.

***

Diplomacy

Trump is ignorant and volatile, seemingly unaware of when Putin is mocking him while he arranges favorable terms for Russia while negotiating a ceasefire. But something Russia did finally irritated him. Despite Trump calling Zelensky a “dictator without election”, he says he is very angry and pissed off after Putin said Zelensky is not a legitimate leader. “If I feel, if we’re in the midst of a negotiation, you could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when Putin said yesterday that — you know, when Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location, you understand?”

Trump said he also “was pissed off” about Putin’s comments about temporary governance and that his anger about Putin’s comments had been made known to Moscow.

He might be angry at yet another potential delay in the ceasefire negotiations that no one wants. “But new leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time, right? If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said.

The US position has evolved from Democrats and mainstream Republicans supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, to Trump saying he can settle the war in one day, to his administration working on a peace deal that will satisfy Russia “as long as it takes.” In fact, a peace deal that might be satisfactory to one side is unacceptable to the other side, but no one wants to openly oppose Trump’s efforts.

The latest charade is Putin saying he accepts a peace deal, but only if sanctions are lifted. The EU said they will only consider lifting sanctions once Russia has withdrawn from Ukraine. The US could still unilaterally lift some sanctions, such as allowing Russian banks to rejoin the SWIFT network used to exchange money during trades. That would be a tremendous relief for Russia and another major benchmark in a US withdrawal from European alliances.

A scientist in Russia protested the invasion in its opening days and was arrested. She fled to Georgia and then the United States to continue her research on genomes at Harvard Medical School. Upon returning from a trip to France, she was arrested at the airport, her visa was revoked and was told she would be deported to Russia. She is being held in a for-profit prison in Louisiana. She had not made any political statements. Her crime was bring back frog embryo samples for her boss, which was legal, but she made a mistake on the paperwork. Weeks earlier, a French scientist was denied entry because a search of his phone had a message critical of Trump.

Last week, the Trump administration cancelled a contract that tracked Ukrainian children that were kidnapped by Russia. There was concern that the data collected was lost but the contractor decided to preserve the data despite lack of guidance from the State Department. Bi-partisan and conservative Christian support for the project forced a Trump reversal that will fund the project for six weeks which will give them time to transfer the data to Europol to help the EU law enforcement agency prosecute the crimes. Researchers are hoping that Europe will fund the project so they can continue to track the children and gather new data.

A group of both Republican and Democratic senators want Trump to send frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Of the $300 billion frozen assets, the US has $7 billion in their control and most of the rest is in Europe’s control. Congress gave approval to do so in 2024 but Biden didn’t because of the resistance of western leaders to take such action. Trump also has not done so.

American defense companies are considering moving to Europe to bypass Trump’s policies.

Sweden’s defense spending will reach 3.5% of their GDP by 2030. They are creating two new brigades that will be operational by 2028. Eight Swedish Archer artillery systems and a Swedish counter-battery radar have been used by the 45th Brigade since November 2023. Sweden will send 18 more, plus five counter-battery radars, as well as help produce Ukraine’s Bogdana self-propelled howitzers.

Under pressure from the US and other organizations, Panama will revoke the registration of 128 sanctioned ships from Russia and Iran. This is in addition to the 70 ships that were already removed from their registry.

There was an explosion at a Czech factory that produces ammo, repairs equipment and supplies spare parts. One person was taken to the hospital. The likely cause was a technical malfunction in a production building.

Greenland’s prime minister described the visit by the US vice president’s wife and national security advisor as “highly aggressive”. And then Vance himself decided to come. “We are now at a level where it can in no way be characterized as a harmless visit from a politician's wife,” PM Egede said, according to Greenland’s Sermitsiaq newspaper. “What is the national security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to demonstrate power over us.”

US officials went door to door asking if anyone wanted to meet with the vice president’s wife. Everyone politely declined. The trip was ultimately shortened to a visit to a remote US base where they could avoid the public outcry and protest from the citizens of Greenland. The official government reason is that when the vice president decided to join his wife, a longer trip didn’t fit into his schedule.

Denmark supports Greenland’s independence whenever they decide to take that step. Trump questions Denmark’s claim on Greenland with his usual grasp of historical facts. “A boat landed there 200 years ago or something. And they say they have rights to it,” Trump said. “I don’t know if that’s true. I don’t think it is, actually.”

America’s current administration continues to erode its alliances with Vance’s mouth and an unwanted visit to Greenland.

***

European Defense Industries

The EU nations are planning to spend up to €800 billion on defense. They will loan up to €150 billion to member states. Friendly states that are not part of the EU can participate in weapon purchases. This includes Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Moldova, South Korea, Japan, Albania and North Macedonia. As EU candidates, Turkey and Serbia could possibly join. If the UK establishes a defense and security partnership then it could also join the defense program. Canada is very interested, and there has been talk about Australia, New Zealand and India joining.

65% of the components must be European, which includes Ukraine and Norway. The money will not be spent on weapons systems where a non-EU country controls construction or use. That would exclude joint ventures that produce US equipment in the EU. Non-EU countries will not be allowed access to classified information.

Prioritizing spending within the EU will strengthen their defense industries and reduce reliance on outside entities, such as the US.

US military exports increased in the last five years but current policies, even if reversed, will impact future sales.

“If you keep punching your allies in the face, eventually they’re going to stop wanting to buy weapons from you,” said a Western European defense official. “Right now we have limited options outside of US platforms, but in the long run? That could change in the coming decades if this combativeness keeps up.”

In 2024, foreign military sales reached $317 billion. If Washington loses buyers it could eventually weaken the US defense industry.

***

Equipment

Ukraine built a missile with a 700 km range, a speed of 700 kph and has 70% of the parts produced domestically. It’s called the Peklo. They’ve built 100 missiles in three months and will ramp up production. They’ve been used in combat five times by December and are constantly being upgraded to withstand EW attacks and to increase accuracy.

In October 2022, Czechia and Ukraine agreed to develop defense programs that benefited both countries. One of the products of that agreement is the Troll Satellite, built by Czechia, that will generate imagery with a five meters per pixel and use AI to analyze other parts of the spectrum. It can detect disturbances in the ground, vegetation and the water, monitor energy or heat sources or detect the presence of chemical and biological material. It also has a LIDAR to map and track satellites in Earth orbit that could impact Czechia and its allies.

The TROLL nanosatellite will demonstrate new technologies and generate experience for national industry. LIDAR can also map the Earth’s surface.

Five DRAK satellites will be launched between 2026 and 2030 specifically for the Ukrainian military. It will generate imagery with one meter per pixel and the on board AI will only transmit relevant data to a Czech control station instead of every image.

The DRAK satellite is jointly built by Czechia and Ukraine, weighs 150 kg and will be part of a Czech-Ukraine satellite constellation.

This 155 mm factory was opened in Texas last May. It’s expected to produce 100,000 shells per month using Türkiye-made robots. Only 300 people are needed for all aspects of the plant, including non-production jobs.

Saab built an anti-drone weapon system with a machine gun and off the shelf parts in 84 days.

The 47th Brigade received the first towed 155 mm howitzer. It cost $1.5 million compared to the $2.5 million self-propelled version, and is believed to exceed 10 tons. By comparison, the M777 cost $3.7 million in 2017 and weighs 4.2 tons.

***