"In January 2025, Russia’s military suffered 48,240 casualties—the equivalent of three motorized rifle divisions—making it the second deadliest month of the war, trailing only February 2022.
ISW analysts noted that over the past month, Russian troops advanced 498 square kilometers, meaning Russia is losing approximately 96 soldiers for every square kilometer captured."
But for both articles, the source is the ISW. I'm reading their report almost daily and they don't provide any evidence, their just claims.
But wirh all the drones and gopro on the battlefield now, with 1000 casualties a day, the frontline should be full of corpses everywhere... and yet when there's video showing casualties of a failed assault, if there's 10 casualties it's already a lot.
Plus an article has recently been published that the visually and absolutely confirmed minimum of casualties for the russian is about 100 000. So let's just assume that it's the double (just for the experience), it would be around 200 000.... in 3 years of war. That would mean an average of 182 per day.... which is 10 times less of what's claimed.
But even if you use some more magical numbee like 500 000, it would still be twice less on average.
So something doesn't make any sense in this claim.
We have been hearing for almost a year now they're having 1000 casualties a days... okay but where are they ? Where are the evidences? And I mean physical evidences, not claims.
A thousand casualties a day doesn't mean killed, it also includes wounded. Videos document a small fraction of the action. Even so, the Russians post videos now and then of bodies. Other supporting evidence has been documentation and payments to families. Russia is recruiting 20k+ each month and the army isn't growing by 20k+ each month. The payments for signing contracts had been steadily rising until one region recently had to reduce payments due to budget issues. The US and UK also posted their own estimates. In all of this, of course, you're free to believe what you will.
This war is looking to me more and more like the ww1.
Now the american russians and the russian reich are trying to get a Brest-Livotsk agreement. What the european entente Will do about? Who will play the americans rol?
The amount of atacks of the VSRF is diminishing from previous months. This is signal of out of Steam? Or the consolidation and preparation for a renewed spring offensive? Is possible to identify VSRF concentration of means to discover it?
What about the inteligente sharing between US and Ukraine? Is real that was severed following friday White House ambush?
Thanks for the update. You wrote: «As long as the situation remains this way, he has no reasons to even pay attention at any kind of ‘peace offers’ from ‘the West». But he clearly did. And loved them. Of course they were stupid and of course he will try to get at the negotiating table what he hasn’t gotten before. But he did entertain them. Russian media loves them. Sp there must be something he feels is difficult here.
I am quite unhappy about the large loss of troops in a training ground.
We are used to Russians letting their troops get killed in training camps like this, but I would expect this to be a grim warning story for Ukrainian troops as well, not something to replicate
ISW is a source on that:
"Based on the more recent number, the Russian losses in 2024 amount to an average of 1,180 per day, and about 103 losses per square kilometre gained."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/8/russia-gained-4000sq-km-of-ukraine-in-2024-how-many-soldiers-did-it-lose
"In January 2025, Russia’s military suffered 48,240 casualties—the equivalent of three motorized rifle divisions—making it the second deadliest month of the war, trailing only February 2022.
ISW analysts noted that over the past month, Russian troops advanced 498 square kilometers, meaning Russia is losing approximately 96 soldiers for every square kilometer captured."
https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/russia-s-advance-slows-as-battlefield-losses-remain-high-isw-reports-50487012.html
But for both articles, the source is the ISW. I'm reading their report almost daily and they don't provide any evidence, their just claims.
But wirh all the drones and gopro on the battlefield now, with 1000 casualties a day, the frontline should be full of corpses everywhere... and yet when there's video showing casualties of a failed assault, if there's 10 casualties it's already a lot.
Plus an article has recently been published that the visually and absolutely confirmed minimum of casualties for the russian is about 100 000. So let's just assume that it's the double (just for the experience), it would be around 200 000.... in 3 years of war. That would mean an average of 182 per day.... which is 10 times less of what's claimed.
But even if you use some more magical numbee like 500 000, it would still be twice less on average.
So something doesn't make any sense in this claim.
We have been hearing for almost a year now they're having 1000 casualties a days... okay but where are they ? Where are the evidences? And I mean physical evidences, not claims.
A thousand casualties a day doesn't mean killed, it also includes wounded. Videos document a small fraction of the action. Even so, the Russians post videos now and then of bodies. Other supporting evidence has been documentation and payments to families. Russia is recruiting 20k+ each month and the army isn't growing by 20k+ each month. The payments for signing contracts had been steadily rising until one region recently had to reduce payments due to budget issues. The US and UK also posted their own estimates. In all of this, of course, you're free to believe what you will.
Thank you so much for all the work, Tom and Don. I just do not know what to think anymore ... so I better give a rest to my grey cells.
"averaging a gain of two square kilometers a day at a cost of 1100 casualties a day"
Any source or evidence for this ?
Thank you
Same source that reported 4 k North Koreans killed and 900 Russian howitzers destroyed per month.))))
Ukrainian casualty estimates are within 15% of previous US/UK casualty estimates.
Thanks for the work, Tom and Don.
This war is looking to me more and more like the ww1.
Now the american russians and the russian reich are trying to get a Brest-Livotsk agreement. What the european entente Will do about? Who will play the americans rol?
The amount of atacks of the VSRF is diminishing from previous months. This is signal of out of Steam? Or the consolidation and preparation for a renewed spring offensive? Is possible to identify VSRF concentration of means to discover it?
What about the inteligente sharing between US and Ukraine? Is real that was severed following friday White House ambush?
There's been no reports on intel sharing. The final shipments of ammo and equipment may be canceled.
...and now we know the US is preventing the UK from sharing its intelligence with Ukraine.
Thanks for the update. You wrote: «As long as the situation remains this way, he has no reasons to even pay attention at any kind of ‘peace offers’ from ‘the West». But he clearly did. And loved them. Of course they were stupid and of course he will try to get at the negotiating table what he hasn’t gotten before. But he did entertain them. Russian media loves them. Sp there must be something he feels is difficult here.
I am quite unhappy about the large loss of troops in a training ground.
We are used to Russians letting their troops get killed in training camps like this, but I would expect this to be a grim warning story for Ukrainian troops as well, not something to replicate
Last week's attack was a replication:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-ceremony-ship-damage-e065a6fbcd990605705ab35ac1538e12
Ugh.
When will they learn that nobody is safe even 100 km behind the contact line?
Most know. It's the ongoing theme of some leaders being incompetent.