Don's Weekly, 3 March 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Combat in Ukraine

With the exception of the Ulakly cauldron, there has been very little territorial gain by the Russians in the last month. Their biggest gain this week was in Velyka Novosilka, where they are averaging a gain of two square kilometers a day at a cost of 1100 casualties a day. This is the lowest amount of gain for the Russians in nine months.

Still, there is no denial that the Russians remain in possession of strategic initiative, and continue advancing - for, meanwhile some 18 months. This must be kept in mind because it’s all that matters from Putin’s point of view.

As long as the situation remains this way, he has no reasons to even pay attention at any kind of ‘peace offers’ from ‘the West’.

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Sumy

This oblast in north-eastern Ukraine (and bordering on the Russian Federation) is receiving next to no attention in the ‘Western’ public, although it’s a scene of near-constant fighting ever since 24 February 2024. Even in the following case, only a small portion of the fighting in question is recorded on video. Actually, Russian missiles, bombs, artillery, mortars and drones attack targets in Sumy every day. Below are the attacks in Sumy during just one day.

• Krasnopilska community: the enemy fought with artillery (6 attacks), mortars (11 attacks), FPV drones (6 attacks) and dropping the VOG from UAVs (8 attacks).

• Bilopil community: ordered an attack on an FPV drone, dropped a VOG from a UAV (3 attacks).

• Miropil community: recorded drop of FOG from UAVs (3 attacks), attack of FPV drones (1 attack). As a result of the impact, a civilian car was damaged.

• Velikopisarivska community: Russians threw 8 minutes onto the territory of the community. There were also VOG airdrops from UAVs (16 vehicles) and artillery shelling (9 vehicles).

• Yunakivsk community: hitting the enemy with mortars (4 shots), artillery (37 shots), FPV drones (2 shots), KAB (1 shot), throwing off a VOG with UAV (1 shot) and a missile strike (2 attacks).

• Khotyn community: an attack by FPV drones (9 attacks) was recorded. As a result of the impacts, 2 civilian cars were damaged.

• Shaliginskaya community: commanded attack of FPV drones (2 attacks).

• Esmanskaya community: hitting the enemy with FPV drones (2 attacks).

• Mid-Budska community: VOG dropped from UAVs (2 attacks).

• Novoslobidsk community: an FPV drone attack was recorded (2 attacks).

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Kupiansk

The only territorial gain was Ukraine pushing Russia out of a 2.5 strip of land. It was a crucial gain, though, because it - finally - forced the Russians out of an area where they could establish a major stronghold for their further advance on the town.

Multiple cases of collaboration were announced throughout Ukraine. These are just the cases in the Kupiansk region: A 52-year-old woman from Dvorechna is accused of collaborating with the Russians when they occupied her village. She is at large and will be tried in absentia and could receive up to ten years if found guilty.

In another case, a 44-year-old is wanted for running a TV station that broadcasts propaganda. He faces up to 12 years imprisonment and will be tried in absentia. A member of the Kurylivka council continued working with the occupying Russian forces. She is in custody and faces ten years. The head of a school willingly volunteered to implement the Russian curriculum and instruct other teachers on the ‘new standards’. She is being held in custody. A 57-year-old working at a wood shop helped provide material for Russian defensive positions. A 37-year-old manned checkpoints and checked documents to prevent sabotage on behalf of the Russians. He fled to Russian occupied territory and faces 15 years.

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Siversk

Russia advanced around 500 meters south of Bilohorivka.

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Chasiv Yar

For two weeks there have been reports that Ukraine made minor gains but there is no visual evidence to support the reports. The Russians fight drones, sometimes successfully. Ukrainian drones hit Russian targets east of the Siversky Donets - Donbas canal.

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Toretsk

Over the last week, the ZSU launched a multi-prong, local counteroffensive, moving the fighting back into the ruined city. The Russia are launching attacks as well, but Ukraine is making small advances. Ukrainian drone and indirect fire attacks are plentiful, making it difficult for Russian to reinforce and resupply. The situation is fluid and even approximate mapping is difficult, but Ukraine is clearing houses on multiple axes. The situation is becoming more difficult for the Russians.

A Russian tries to destroy a building with two anti-tank mines that fail to detonate.

This video of a brief firefight in Shcherbynivka is at least a month old. The 12th Azov advanced and is holding positions three kilometers from that village now. In this video, Russian prisoners talk about their experiences accompanied by a video of them being captured in Shcherbynivka.

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Pokrovsk

Russia first reached Kotlyne in mid-January and established control of it by the end of the month. For a month, Ukrainian forces collected intelligence, planned and trained for an assault to retake the village and blunt the Russian advance. Russian supplies and reinforcements to the village were interdicted by drones, and Russian positions inside the village were constantly attacked around the clock prior to the assault. The attack came at night, spearheaded by a battalion of the 25th Airborne Brigade and supported by three other units that approached from two different directions. Drones, mortars, artillery and airstrikes supported the attack and Ukraine said that about 200 Russians retreated and were destroyed by drones and indirect fire.

Pishchane was taken last week. The only territory to change hands was Kotlyne being recovered by Ukraine.

In combination with the latest reported Ukrainian counterattack in this area - one on the western side of the Russian penetration - the liberation of (what is left of) Pishchane is making this ‘almost another local counteroffensive’.

Russian targets around Kotlyne are hit. The 25th Brigade ambushes a Russian squad.

A thermobaric depot was discovered in Russian-occupied Selidove.

A Russian report stating that they are low on personnel in the southern Donetsk region and this is why Ukrainian counter attacks are effective. Injured Russians that have not healed are being sent back to the front lines.

Open trenches are not effective against drones so the Ukrainian government built cages that run the length of the trenches. The width of the cages make movement difficult.

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Velyka Novosilka

The 110th Brigade engages two Russian assaults totaling ten vehicles. Russia was able to advance 1500 meters over a 7 km front.

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Zaporizhzhia

The command post of the 1429th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment in Kopani was hit by a precision strike.

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Dnipro

In turn… while in most of other sectors of the frontline, the ZSU is meanwhile running a relatively effective campaign of hunting and destroying the Russian reconnaissance drones, whoever is responsible for the Dnipro sector - still some 100-130 kilometres BEHIND the frontline - can’t care less. Indeed: is acting like if there’s peace, and no threat at all. Correspondingly, either the character in question, or one of his aides, has gathered hundreds of troops at the Cherkasske polygon - and 50+ of these were then not only found by a Russian UAV, but promptly killed by a single Iskander ballistic missile… and that while tidily lined up…

…seems, the Ukrainian air force was too busy celebrating the British announcement about donation of money for ‘5,000 air defence missiles’ - sometimes in the future - but to detect the incoming missile and issue a timely warning…

Of course, Drapaty has initiated an ‘independent investigation’ into this affair… because, you know, such investigations are always so highly effective…

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(…to be continued…)