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No progress by Russia. Good

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Thanks Don yes good to read the Russians are making very little progress

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Seems Ukrainian SEAD is really ramping up before F-16s arrive.

Though it will take a lot to burn through Russian air defences. Eg depending on the source, before 2022 Russia had acquired anywhere from 56 to 87 S400 battalion sets. Each battalion set is meant to have 8 launchers as well as control vehicle and radars. 56 seems to have been an actual planned number so I will assume that is correct instead of 87 which seems like Russian wishful thinking.

From what I can see, at least 6-7 S400 battalions have suffered damage of varying levels. Even if we get confident and bump S400 losses to 10 battalions fully knocked out (unlikely), there's still another 46 battalion sets available. In reality probably more as not all damaged battalions suffered 100% losses and you could probably merge damaged battalions into whole ones.

Ok some are guarding Moscow and other areas. But as we've seen even St Petersburg area has been stripped of S300 batteries. Probably same has happened with S400 (wouldn't be surprised if only defended area outside of Ukraine was Moscow).

And that doesn't even take into account S300s which are so numerous they use them in ground attack mode as well as lower altitude systems ala Buk and Tor (not going to include Pantsir as experience in Libya, Syria and Ukraine indicates it does not work at all!).

And whilst Russian SAMs seem to struggle against western EW/SEAD systems, not Ukraine is not getting full raft of capabilities eg no E/A-18G Growler/Tornado ECR/F-16CJ SEAD jets, no EC-130H airborne jammers and no E-8 JSTARs (superb for identifying and mapping ground based units). F-16AM does not have AESA radar or specialised SEAD gear often found on Block 50/52 F-16s.

In reality west should have been donating F-35s, not F-16s.

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Air defenses of both sides are highly prized targets. What's changed is the introduction of ATACMS. Ballistic missiles have a predictable flight path. The ATACMS can change its flight path mid-flight. This is more difficult to track and engage.

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"Nebo-M system. This system can detect aircraft and ballistic missiles 300 km away, which means Mykolaiv (near Kherson) is within range and it can almost reach the Belorussian border"

Mykolaiv is 600km away though.

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