Don's Weekly, 3 June 2024: Part 2
(…continued from Part 1…)
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Avdiivka
Russia continues to attack across the sector. They suffered heavy losses and made little progress with the exception of a 1500 meter gain west of Semenivka.
Two of seven Russian vehicles that were destroyed in this kilometer-wide field on one day…https://x.com/giK1893/status/1795379778985586876
Russian motorcyclists are hit by small arms fire. Sometimes they just fall down. Sometimes a drone interrupts their travels.
A couple of months ago an M1 was taking 3 km shots from Berdychi to the coke plant…https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1795835993863729164
The Russians show off their 120mm SP mortar in Stepove…https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1795502243308814468
A Ukrainian MRAP survived several attacks moving from the canal to the canal district. It drives by other vehicles that didn’t survive…https://x.com/RALee85/status/1796612086618841588
A Ukrainian 2S7 gun is attacked by a Lancet…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1796634808442933574
110 km east of Chasiv Yar, an ATACMS strike near the Luhansk airport damaged two radars of the Nebo-M system. This system can detect aircraft and ballistic missiles 300 km away, which means Mykolaiv (near Kherson) is within range and it can almost reach the Belorussian border…https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/8538
This is from a few weeks ago when the Russians were entering Ocheretyne…https://x.com/giK1893/status/1793250984849785067/video/1
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Marinka
There is a video that shows a Bradley moving a squad two kilometers southeast of Krasnohorivka before unloading the troops and being hit by a drone. It was recently released but it’s possible this event took place weeks ago. If it didn’t, it would make little sense on Ukraine’s part to send an unsupported unit so deep behind Russian positions, even if troop density is low for both sides.
Russia suffered some losses at Pobieda without making any forward progress. West of Novomykhailivka, Russian vehicles are being knocked out by the mines Ukraine is deploying and by the Javelins that are making an appearance on the battlefield again.
For those that have access to Telegram, here is a post of a Bradley being targeted southeast of Krasnohorivka as infantry dismount…https://t.me/RVvoenkor/69182
They were attacked and taken prisoner the next day…https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/10577
Accurate Ukrainian artillery fire lands around a two-vehicle Russian assault towards Paraskoviivka. The Russian infantry likely suffered casualties but the vehicles returned back to Novomykhailivka after dropping them off. At 0:41, three rounds land within two seconds. While this confirms that three Ukrainian guns were involved in the fire mission it was probably coincidental that they landed at the same time since this is the only time this happened. Presuming they are located at three different locations, they would have to fire at three different times to arrive simultaneously. That takes coordination that I haven’t see yet. (It’s much easier when there are six guns at the same location). But this engagement is one more indication that Ukraine is firing more artillery ammunition…https://x.com/small10space/status/1795423093344587813
A new rail line built outside of Ukrainian artillery range will be operational soon…https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1795909444011778191
A Russian column runs the gauntlet to bring more troops and supplies to Krasnohorivka…https://x.com/RALee85/status/1795889587329360122
The Russian crew abandons their T90 after it’s hit south of Marinka…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1795735552312152364
Russians reportedly attacked a Russian position…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1796110007626248330
A lot of rivers (creeks, streams) in this area are very small and can be easily crossed by infantry. Tracked vehicles might be able to cross at some locations but that depends on how wide and deep the river is, how steep the banks are and the soil conditions. At this location the conditions didn’t support a vehicle crossing but the crossing was small enough that a scissors bridge could span it. The bridge was damaged but still seemingly functional. The Russian driver decided not to use it…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796183314568536095
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Zaporizhzhia
Russia has forced Ukrainian troops out of southern- and central Staromaiorske, but heavy…and I mean heavy…Russian bombardment of southern Urozhaine is a strong indication that it’s still in Ukrainian control.
There is a fair amount of attrition in the Robotyne area but no territorial changes.
Zala destroyed by drone at an altitude of 2145 meters…https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1796624267427135585
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Kherson
When Magyar’s Birds were there their drones had air superiority which took the Russians apart before they could launch any ground assaults. They weren’t the only drone unit operating there. Now that Magyar has moved to the Kharkiv sector it will be interesting to see if there is a notable change at either location.
At least seven Russians are flushed from a house by a series of drone attacks in Oleshky…https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1795571644586750453
2 km from the destroyed Antonivka bridge, the Russians launch an ATGM into a woman’s house…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1795522975367942167
Crossing the Dnieper is dangerous…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1795756734214246895
There have been a few videos of Russian drones attacking Ukrainian drones. In this video, a Ukrainian drone approaches an Orlan reconnaissance drone from above and behind. All drone operators have to contend with a little bit of lag as it takes time for the video feed to reach them and it takes time for their control signals to reach the drone…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1796830172588507233
Ukrainian Marines have expanded their patrols in Krynky and
(…to be continued…)
No progress by Russia. Good
Seems Ukrainian SEAD is really ramping up before F-16s arrive.
Though it will take a lot to burn through Russian air defences. Eg depending on the source, before 2022 Russia had acquired anywhere from 56 to 87 S400 battalion sets. Each battalion set is meant to have 8 launchers as well as control vehicle and radars. 56 seems to have been an actual planned number so I will assume that is correct instead of 87 which seems like Russian wishful thinking.
From what I can see, at least 6-7 S400 battalions have suffered damage of varying levels. Even if we get confident and bump S400 losses to 10 battalions fully knocked out (unlikely), there's still another 46 battalion sets available. In reality probably more as not all damaged battalions suffered 100% losses and you could probably merge damaged battalions into whole ones.
Ok some are guarding Moscow and other areas. But as we've seen even St Petersburg area has been stripped of S300 batteries. Probably same has happened with S400 (wouldn't be surprised if only defended area outside of Ukraine was Moscow).
And that doesn't even take into account S300s which are so numerous they use them in ground attack mode as well as lower altitude systems ala Buk and Tor (not going to include Pantsir as experience in Libya, Syria and Ukraine indicates it does not work at all!).
And whilst Russian SAMs seem to struggle against western EW/SEAD systems, not Ukraine is not getting full raft of capabilities eg no E/A-18G Growler/Tornado ECR/F-16CJ SEAD jets, no EC-130H airborne jammers and no E-8 JSTARs (superb for identifying and mapping ground based units). F-16AM does not have AESA radar or specialised SEAD gear often found on Block 50/52 F-16s.
In reality west should have been donating F-35s, not F-16s.