The Ukrainians need every decent brigade on the frontline for defense and local counterattaks. They remove these units for replenishment only when their military hardware is exhausted. New conscripts without 1 month of integration in the rear are actually a burden at this stage. They don't have experience yet they consume transport space in APCs, waste munitions on IFVs and slow down operations.
The Ukrainian brigades don't get to call the time for rest and refit. Nor for the length of time for refit and training of replacements. This is the job of Urainian General Staff and it needs all its decent brigades on the frontline. You can see this with 47th Brigade rescueing 41th Brigade at Niu York. Suppose that 47th Brigade was somewhere at Dnipro training replacements after Urozhsine, Avdiivka and Vovchansk - what would have been the result? Replacements inserted during combat are basically KIA because they have little skills and no coordonation with veteran soldiers.
Cant make an offensive without equipment. While waiting for/aquiring that I would put some of the new soldiers in the old units, But I dont really know much about unit cohesion.
I'm not sure who you're trying to convince here. Saying they will fight with shovels is an expression of determination to fight the invasion of an oppressor no matter what. It does not represent a desire to give away their land during peace talks.
No one here is going to be swayed by your weak attempts of propaganda.
Wehrmacht used this method from 1943 and Red Army used this method în 1941 and 1942. It's a symptom of large losses of hardware and manpower. The solution would be to retreat slowly while rebuilding units.
Nor that good. The Allies had Montgomery to the North and Pattton to the south each with overwhelming armour and artillery that was rushed in to fill the gaps. Then the skies cleared and... airpower. If only Ukraine was in that position.
Very useful. Thanks. Hopefully it will help counter some of the despair amongst those who only read the headlines about Russia advancing. I'll pass it around to those I know.
A lot has been written about it by myself and many others: Russia has economic problems that are only going to get worse, they're losing vehicles faster than they can produce them, 2/3 of what they produce are actually refurbished from storage and by 2025 those stockpiles will be gone, they're going to run out of artillery barrels due to low production and wear from use, they're paying more to get people to sign up and are targeting Moscow and St. Petersburg, which they avoided before.
Ukraine's biggest issues are manpower and air defense. Ammo is being produced in increasing amounts and drone production now equals Russia's production and is of better quality. Ukraine's strategic drone production is increasing in quantity and quality and they will be an increasing threat to Russian aircraft, oil storage, refinery production, factory production and electrical grid. This, in turn, will impact Russia's economy.
Regarding corruption and incompetence lets just agree that they are problems on both sides. Energy grid is certainly a problem, But your predictions is unlikely to be correct. Russia has tried this before. Hurt? Definetly. Problem? Definetly. Printing money definetly is a Russian activity, inflation is high and increasing. Reising takes is probably needed. Ukraine does depend on forening support, which economically is provided. Russia doesnt get economic support. Bugger problem. Regarding death payments and assuming that both Dons and your dataset are correct, Ukraine obviously is paying death benefits. Russia aint if the can avoid it all. To me your analysis seems very pro Russian, But I will give you an important point: Ukraine has a lot if problems.
Everybody here can see that you are a Putinboy. Go elsewhere. People have brains here. Like Augustinus wrote : the truth is what is. And a humain should use his head. Erkenntnis versus Glauben.
And yet another of growing number of analyses of Russia's industrial base paints a bleak picture for Putin. Here's the executive summary:
1. Russia’s State Statistics Agency, Rosstat, reported increased growth in arms manufacturing industries during the first half of 2024. However, this growth is less impressive when considering physical manufacturing data as it is dependent on ruble prices.
2. Russia was only able to increase the production of some components needed for arms manufacturing, meaning it would hardly be possible for Russia to significantly increase manufacturing without the corresponding increase in the production of necessary components.
3. Russia’s military-industrial complex is not modernizing quickly enough to keep up with demand, meaning that Russia will not be capable of increasing arms production rates in the long term.
There's an awful lot of these all of a sudden. Maybe the think tanks are feeling embarrassed by how RUSI's report to was 'mis-interpreted' earlier this year. :P
The red text (weeks and meters per week) on the map is unreadable, probably due to JPEG compression of red over red.
Came to say the same - red text on brownish background is unreadable, but should be extremely interesting.
Sorry about that. Tom was kind enough to put up a replacement.
"It is peculiar to stand up new units when existing units need replacements." I dont know how but maybe they decided this to make an offensive?
The Ukrainians need every decent brigade on the frontline for defense and local counterattaks. They remove these units for replenishment only when their military hardware is exhausted. New conscripts without 1 month of integration in the rear are actually a burden at this stage. They don't have experience yet they consume transport space in APCs, waste munitions on IFVs and slow down operations.
The Ukrainian brigades don't get to call the time for rest and refit. Nor for the length of time for refit and training of replacements. This is the job of Urainian General Staff and it needs all its decent brigades on the frontline. You can see this with 47th Brigade rescueing 41th Brigade at Niu York. Suppose that 47th Brigade was somewhere at Dnipro training replacements after Urozhsine, Avdiivka and Vovchansk - what would have been the result? Replacements inserted during combat are basically KIA because they have little skills and no coordonation with veteran soldiers.
Cant make an offensive without equipment. While waiting for/aquiring that I would put some of the new soldiers in the old units, But I dont really know much about unit cohesion.
I'm not sure who you're trying to convince here. Saying they will fight with shovels is an expression of determination to fight the invasion of an oppressor no matter what. It does not represent a desire to give away their land during peace talks.
No one here is going to be swayed by your weak attempts of propaganda.
It's all about training standards. Some brigades are better than others.
Yes, difficult to avoid that. People are different after all.
People are different in all armies, but standards should be set and enforced.
The net result is that they're behaving like the OKW, i.e. the Wehrmacht during the WWII.
That didn't work back then, and is not going to work now.
Wehrmacht used this method from 1943 and Red Army used this method în 1941 and 1942. It's a symptom of large losses of hardware and manpower. The solution would be to retreat slowly while rebuilding units.
I had this thought in the back of my mind of something like the battle of the bulge but i dont know if the situation is that bad
Nor that good. The Allies had Montgomery to the North and Pattton to the south each with overwhelming armour and artillery that was rushed in to fill the gaps. Then the skies cleared and... airpower. If only Ukraine was in that position.
Seems like 41 is not a good number… should have called them 42 instead :-)
Very useful. Thanks. Hopefully it will help counter some of the despair amongst those who only read the headlines about Russia advancing. I'll pass it around to those I know.
And now, in readable yellow.
I would very much like a fuller exposition of the ‘better position’. Let that be true!
A lot has been written about it by myself and many others: Russia has economic problems that are only going to get worse, they're losing vehicles faster than they can produce them, 2/3 of what they produce are actually refurbished from storage and by 2025 those stockpiles will be gone, they're going to run out of artillery barrels due to low production and wear from use, they're paying more to get people to sign up and are targeting Moscow and St. Petersburg, which they avoided before.
Ukraine's biggest issues are manpower and air defense. Ammo is being produced in increasing amounts and drone production now equals Russia's production and is of better quality. Ukraine's strategic drone production is increasing in quantity and quality and they will be an increasing threat to Russian aircraft, oil storage, refinery production, factory production and electrical grid. This, in turn, will impact Russia's economy.
Regarding corruption and incompetence lets just agree that they are problems on both sides. Energy grid is certainly a problem, But your predictions is unlikely to be correct. Russia has tried this before. Hurt? Definetly. Problem? Definetly. Printing money definetly is a Russian activity, inflation is high and increasing. Reising takes is probably needed. Ukraine does depend on forening support, which economically is provided. Russia doesnt get economic support. Bugger problem. Regarding death payments and assuming that both Dons and your dataset are correct, Ukraine obviously is paying death benefits. Russia aint if the can avoid it all. To me your analysis seems very pro Russian, But I will give you an important point: Ukraine has a lot if problems.
For not being pro-Russian you sure do cover all of their talking points.
Everybody here can see that you are a Putinboy. Go elsewhere. People have brains here. Like Augustinus wrote : the truth is what is. And a humain should use his head. Erkenntnis versus Glauben.
And yet another of growing number of analyses of Russia's industrial base paints a bleak picture for Putin. Here's the executive summary:
1. Russia’s State Statistics Agency, Rosstat, reported increased growth in arms manufacturing industries during the first half of 2024. However, this growth is less impressive when considering physical manufacturing data as it is dependent on ruble prices.
2. Russia was only able to increase the production of some components needed for arms manufacturing, meaning it would hardly be possible for Russia to significantly increase manufacturing without the corresponding increase in the production of necessary components.
3. Russia’s military-industrial complex is not modernizing quickly enough to keep up with demand, meaning that Russia will not be capable of increasing arms production rates in the long term.
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-arms-manufacturing-in-january-june-2024/
There's an awful lot of these all of a sudden. Maybe the think tanks are feeling embarrassed by how RUSI's report to was 'mis-interpreted' earlier this year. :P
Thanks Don
Thanks Don. Regarding hitting the 41st again.
Is it very likely that Russians are starting to push where they know that there are degradated units from other fronts that got located there?
There are reports to that effect.
Thank you so much.