In many of your updates and OSINT analyses, I see that Russia will run out of tanks or self-propelled artillery or just the barrels or something else in several months or 1-2 years in shortest. Yet, at least as they draw their stocks, there should be a marked deterioration of the quality (as the best comes first) but has such a deterioration been observed? There was lots of talk about Russian pulling T-55s but that a year or more so ago. Now it looks that most of the tanks are T-90s. Or maybe T-62s. Yet, not much worse than what was used in the beginning.
Anyway, it looks that least the casualties of Russia are risign and that’s probably the only unsustainable trend but even Tom is no longer optimistic for it…
Regarding tanks now it seems like Russia simply does infantery attacks. Supported by glidebombs. So to stop the attacks it is necessary to stop the glidebombs. Meaning strategic long distance warfare. Regarding man power losses, well Putin doesnt care. How long these attacks can be prolonged is of course open, but it will be very hard to fight two more years. How hard it is for Russia I really dont know. But it is difficult to be very optimistic now.
Yet, Stefan Korshiak’s article that you have cited is actually quite optimistic. Not only about the drones but that the attrition strategy is working. Any thoughts on his “thoughts”?
Personally, I am also optimistic in the strategic outcome. Tom and I are both concerned about factors within the Ukrainian government and military's control that are being poorly handled.
Everyone makes mistakes. That's normal. But it's important to learn from them and it's clear that many of these mistakes are being repeated over two years now. The cost of these mistakes is property destroyed, territory lost, and lives lost. And that is hard to watch.
There are only two choices: Fight or surrender. The prospect of living under Russian occupation is reason enough to fight and that is what Ukraine is doing. And they are doing some things very well. There are a lot of units that have an excellent record of performance, but they need to be support and sustained, and the lessons they've learned need to be replicated on a national level.
So there are concerns. And these concerns are shared by some Ukrainians, both military and civilian. They ask Tom to keep bringing these concerns up in the hopes that somehow, in some way, it will help bring about change.
But I have another concern. All wars are a struggle to see who will give up first. Even if one side has overwhelming firepower, if the other side does not give up, it does not lose. (See the US vs. Vietnam or Afghanistan). If not enough people believe they can win, then they might give up. So the challenge is, how to address issues of concerns without damaging the belief in the very real prospect of victory and the will to continue the fight?
I agree with everything Stefan says and the tone with which he says it. I agree with the problems that Tom identifies. I try to put everything the problems into context, with varying degrees of success. And I try to remind people that Russia has problems that will not go away. Read the Russia section when a Russian industry leader talks about looming problems for their economy. The head of the Russian central back said back in December that they cannot continue at their current rate without things starting to fall apart in the coming months. They are going to have equipment issues that will only get worse with time.
There's plenty of reason for hope. At the same time, Ukraine can improve how it conducts the war. If I've done a poor job in relaying any concerns so that you feel despair, I apologize. Ukraine needs your support, whether you are a Ukrainian citizen or just a decent human being. I believe in a Ukrainian victory not based on hope, but based on observed facts. I hope to convey those observations to you, as well. Frustration happens, but do not panic. Do not give up hope. Ukraine needs you and deserves your support. Let's keep doing our part for them.
So Tom is being urged by some Ukrainians to raise his concerns so that Zelensky & Syrsky can take a note!? That’s even a more dire situation than I thought. Yes Ukraine needs any kind of support, and it’s good that there are so many fundraisers around
Critique is more listened to if it comes from someone from the outside. The inside is to often ignored. That's how the entire consulting business works, sadly.
One of the reasons is shifting responsibility. Well, they found something out, so it must be true...
It's not that internal critique is not heard, it's just there's a different reaction available -- to hit the complainer over the head. Some leaders only start thinking about the complaint itself after you take that option away.
Their algorithm goes like this:
First, try shooting the messenger. If that didn't work, <...>
I put it into more diplomatic words, but the essence is the same. Simply because people believe that if something is wrong it will fall on their head, which is not so untrue either, but makes it impossible to adapt to the changing circumstances around you.
I guess everyone thinks/knows that if they don't hide the problem on their level they will be the messenger to get shot. So the change to fix all of this has to start from the very very top. (As a rough sketch)
As for the Russian economy, I agree - it and the Russian society are much more fragile than it looks from outside. I wouldn’t trust, though, what a Russian oligarch or central banker said.
US vs Vietnam or Afghanistan is not so comparable to war in Ukraine, because Russia is much more brutal, Russia would do a genocide if Ukraine would have no arms an refuse to surrender. US would not do it.
US likes to do things from a distance, with a push of a button. Russians like to rummage in people's guts with their bare hands. Not to discount the crimes of the US, but Russians are just medieval in the worst way. But, to reiterate, doing it the way US does it helps it get away with some nasty shit. Still, "The West" is definitely much further on the road of progress compared to Russians.
The leader of the Wild Hornets says that all of his team's design's and production are scalable. Much of the drone's structure is produced in their workshops, but engines and cameras are not. He says the biggest obstacle to ramping up production even higher is money. It would be wonderful if they had a higher level of governmental funding. They provide a good return on an investment. I don't know if any South Korean companies would be interested in such a partnership.
Just a side note, there was at least one shockwave that could have altered history had it been unleashed where planned, in the confined space of Hitler's bunker in 1944. Since the weather was nice, the Führer decided to hold his meeting in a house above the ground, where the walls didn't reflect the blast of the assassins' bomb well enough, sparing him, but leading to nine more months of casualties, Germany being utterly destroyed and Eastern Europe overrun by the USSR.
You're right, but you're wrong. You are right in your thoughts and in your method of thinking. You are wrong with the formula and physical consequences. The formula of the blast and the distance has the square root or even the cube root. For instance, the blast of an explosive affects you 4 meters with 81mPA (megapascal) and 5 meters with 9 mPA (megapascal).
Ultimately, Putin will have to ask himself at some point what is more important to him: winning the war against Ukraine or protecting his country from a catastrophic economic collapse.
If the latter happens because Putin is uncooperative, it will certainly cause him great political damage in his own country. Before the war, only the people complained about poverty, but now it is the big companies...
In the end, the Western sanctions have played a large part in this, even if many deny it. The sanctions are designed to slowly but steadily bleed the country dry internally. And something like that takes several years.... Anyone who thinks the sanctions have achieved nothing is a fool.
In addition, the BRICS are not really on good terms with each other. Apart from Iran, none of the states are supporting Russia with military and financial aid. China is a special case because they are only interested in their own advantages. As soon as Russia has collapsed economically, China will not give a damn about Russia because then there will be nothing left to gain from it.
North Korea and Iran are only supporting Russia with ammunition, but they will not prevent the collapse either. And in the end, Kim is only interested in having a "friend". But does that mean we have to be afraid of North Korea...? I don't think so...
Especially since I strongly believe that the North Korean soldiers in Russia don't even know where they are. And will perhaps even use every opportunity to escape. Kim has done himself no favors by sending soldiers and Putin has made himself even more ridiculous by now resorting to North Koreans. You can't sink any lower.
And by the way... One day after the Bricks Summit, which Russia absolutely has to sell as a success, the Indian President met with the German Chancellor. They agreed on more intensive economic cooperation. India is not stupid either; Russia is the worst possible partner for stabilizing its economy. India's relationship with Russia is that India gets oil and gas at bargain prices
No matter how you look at it... Ultimately, the war in Ukraine has had no positive effects for Russia. On the contrary, Putin's mission has caused economic damage to the country, setting Russia back 30 years. He will go down in domestic Russian history as someone who led Russia into a deep recession, economic crisis and isolation like no one before him... At some point the time will come when the Russians will understand this too...
> Putin will have to ask himself at some point what is more important to him: winning the war against Ukraine or protecting his country from a catastrophic economic collapse.
He is concerned with neither, only keeping and propagating his power and it's not really political, "oligarchs" hold no sway over him. I'm not quite sure whom to recommend on the topic, maybe Vlad Vexler? I'm drawing a blank, maybe someone else can chime in.
As for his legacy, here's to him going down in the books as the one who ended Russia for good.
Just for amusement, a 'blast' from the past (British War Office tests available on the web) on overhead cover on trenches and other field entrenchments -
"WO 291/602 The practicability of overhead cover
Two types of overhead cover were considered. "Type A" uses raised overhead cover over the whole
trench. "Type B" has a flat covered part, and so is harder to observe, but means that men must leave
the overhead cover area to use their weapons.
On light soil (most soils, especially clays, give more protection for a given thickness), if 100 casualties
would be caused by 25-pdr airburst on trenches without overhead cover, the following casualties are
predicted:
Cover Men manning weapons Crouching in cover
Type A Type B (either type)
6-inch logs with:
No earth 12 100 10
1 ft earth 2 100 2
Corrugated iron or light timber, with:
6" earth 65 100 60
1 ft earth 22 100 17
2 ft earth 12 100 10
"Both in Russia and Italy the Germans have used semi-mobile "pill-boxes" partly sunk in the ground and protected with 30 to 150mm armour plate. These accommodate 2 men and would be invulnerable to anything but a direct hit from a shell or bomb."
One presumes information of this type (updated of course) is taught to officers and soldiers in most Western Armies.
Apparently Ukrainian troops are not taught this sort of information, or choose in all too many castes to ignore it...
A spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Zaporizhia Oblast reported on October 29 that Russian forces began using first person view drones with fiber optic wires stretching up to 10 kilometers in length against Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhia direction.
The German-based Kiel Institute published a report in September 2024, which assessed that Ukrainian air defenses had a 30 percent interception rate against Russian missiles and a 66 percent interception rate against Russian drones. The report specified that Ukrainian air defenses had interception rates of 50 percent against Kalibr cruise missiles, 22 precent against Kh-59s and Kh-69 cruise missiles, four percent against Iskander ballistic missiles, and less than one percent against Kh-22 anti-ship missiles. The report estimated that Russian forces are using more than 1,000 glide bombs per month.
Thanks
There are big gaps in your text, should I be seeing pictures there?
I think so. There at five picture/graphics in the article.
Thanks Don, and Tom for the intro.
In many of your updates and OSINT analyses, I see that Russia will run out of tanks or self-propelled artillery or just the barrels or something else in several months or 1-2 years in shortest. Yet, at least as they draw their stocks, there should be a marked deterioration of the quality (as the best comes first) but has such a deterioration been observed? There was lots of talk about Russian pulling T-55s but that a year or more so ago. Now it looks that most of the tanks are T-90s. Or maybe T-62s. Yet, not much worse than what was used in the beginning.
Anyway, it looks that least the casualties of Russia are risign and that’s probably the only unsustainable trend but even Tom is no longer optimistic for it…
There are now photos of T34 tanks in use which I never saw before.
https://tankmuseum.org/tank-nuts/tank-collection/t-34-76
Regarding tanks now it seems like Russia simply does infantery attacks. Supported by glidebombs. So to stop the attacks it is necessary to stop the glidebombs. Meaning strategic long distance warfare. Regarding man power losses, well Putin doesnt care. How long these attacks can be prolonged is of course open, but it will be very hard to fight two more years. How hard it is for Russia I really dont know. But it is difficult to be very optimistic now.
Yet, Stefan Korshiak’s article that you have cited is actually quite optimistic. Not only about the drones but that the attrition strategy is working. Any thoughts on his “thoughts”?
Personally, I am also optimistic in the strategic outcome. Tom and I are both concerned about factors within the Ukrainian government and military's control that are being poorly handled.
Everyone makes mistakes. That's normal. But it's important to learn from them and it's clear that many of these mistakes are being repeated over two years now. The cost of these mistakes is property destroyed, territory lost, and lives lost. And that is hard to watch.
There are only two choices: Fight or surrender. The prospect of living under Russian occupation is reason enough to fight and that is what Ukraine is doing. And they are doing some things very well. There are a lot of units that have an excellent record of performance, but they need to be support and sustained, and the lessons they've learned need to be replicated on a national level.
So there are concerns. And these concerns are shared by some Ukrainians, both military and civilian. They ask Tom to keep bringing these concerns up in the hopes that somehow, in some way, it will help bring about change.
But I have another concern. All wars are a struggle to see who will give up first. Even if one side has overwhelming firepower, if the other side does not give up, it does not lose. (See the US vs. Vietnam or Afghanistan). If not enough people believe they can win, then they might give up. So the challenge is, how to address issues of concerns without damaging the belief in the very real prospect of victory and the will to continue the fight?
I agree with everything Stefan says and the tone with which he says it. I agree with the problems that Tom identifies. I try to put everything the problems into context, with varying degrees of success. And I try to remind people that Russia has problems that will not go away. Read the Russia section when a Russian industry leader talks about looming problems for their economy. The head of the Russian central back said back in December that they cannot continue at their current rate without things starting to fall apart in the coming months. They are going to have equipment issues that will only get worse with time.
There's plenty of reason for hope. At the same time, Ukraine can improve how it conducts the war. If I've done a poor job in relaying any concerns so that you feel despair, I apologize. Ukraine needs your support, whether you are a Ukrainian citizen or just a decent human being. I believe in a Ukrainian victory not based on hope, but based on observed facts. I hope to convey those observations to you, as well. Frustration happens, but do not panic. Do not give up hope. Ukraine needs you and deserves your support. Let's keep doing our part for them.
Thanks Don.
So Tom is being urged by some Ukrainians to raise his concerns so that Zelensky & Syrsky can take a note!? That’s even a more dire situation than I thought. Yes Ukraine needs any kind of support, and it’s good that there are so many fundraisers around
Just from what I read in the reader's comments.
Those fundraisers help so much. Not only to they provide much needed equipment, it's always a boost to morale to know people are willing to help.
Critique is more listened to if it comes from someone from the outside. The inside is to often ignored. That's how the entire consulting business works, sadly.
One of the reasons is shifting responsibility. Well, they found something out, so it must be true...
It's not that internal critique is not heard, it's just there's a different reaction available -- to hit the complainer over the head. Some leaders only start thinking about the complaint itself after you take that option away.
Their algorithm goes like this:
First, try shooting the messenger. If that didn't work, <...>
I put it into more diplomatic words, but the essence is the same. Simply because people believe that if something is wrong it will fall on their head, which is not so untrue either, but makes it impossible to adapt to the changing circumstances around you.
I guess everyone thinks/knows that if they don't hide the problem on their level they will be the messenger to get shot. So the change to fix all of this has to start from the very very top. (As a rough sketch)
As for the Russian economy, I agree - it and the Russian society are much more fragile than it looks from outside. I wouldn’t trust, though, what a Russian oligarch or central banker said.
They were just confirming what seven EU finance minsters have said along with other subject matter experts.
US vs Vietnam or Afghanistan is not so comparable to war in Ukraine, because Russia is much more brutal, Russia would do a genocide if Ukraine would have no arms an refuse to surrender. US would not do it.
You mean like the US is totally not doing in Palestine right now ?
Or you mean like the US totally is not doing repeatedly close since the beginning of the so called GWoT ?
US likes to do things from a distance, with a push of a button. Russians like to rummage in people's guts with their bare hands. Not to discount the crimes of the US, but Russians are just medieval in the worst way. But, to reiterate, doing it the way US does it helps it get away with some nasty shit. Still, "The West" is definitely much further on the road of progress compared to Russians.
Excellent Don. Particularly the detail on the trench works. That filled in a lot of blanks for me. Thank you 👍
Now that North Koreans are fighting with Russia, it sure would be nice for the Wild Hornets to partner with a South Korean manufacturing company.
The leader of the Wild Hornets says that all of his team's design's and production are scalable. Much of the drone's structure is produced in their workshops, but engines and cameras are not. He says the biggest obstacle to ramping up production even higher is money. It would be wonderful if they had a higher level of governmental funding. They provide a good return on an investment. I don't know if any South Korean companies would be interested in such a partnership.
Wait, is this from private communication or did I miss some interview?
He talked about the components and scalability based on funding in an interview a while ago.
Just a side note, there was at least one shockwave that could have altered history had it been unleashed where planned, in the confined space of Hitler's bunker in 1944. Since the weather was nice, the Führer decided to hold his meeting in a house above the ground, where the walls didn't reflect the blast of the assassins' bomb well enough, sparing him, but leading to nine more months of casualties, Germany being utterly destroyed and Eastern Europe overrun by the USSR.
You're right, but you're wrong. You are right in your thoughts and in your method of thinking. You are wrong with the formula and physical consequences. The formula of the blast and the distance has the square root or even the cube root. For instance, the blast of an explosive affects you 4 meters with 81mPA (megapascal) and 5 meters with 9 mPA (megapascal).
P.s. I'm not a professional, but it's true.
Not fisical, you must read physical. Please, forgive me.
I don't think Su-57 production will be 14 this year. Only 2 have been delivered in 2024.
RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES 2024 (year to date):
Su-34: 4
Su-35: 4
Su-57: 2 (delivered in September)
No Su-30s delivered to Russia, but 4-6 were delivered to Kazakhstan.
TOTAL YTD: 10 (+6 for Kazakhstan)
For comparison
RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES 2023:
Su-30 : 2
Su-34: 6
Su-35: 10
Su-57: up to 11
TOTAL: 29
RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES 2022:
Su-30 : 4
Su-34: 10
Su-35: 7
Su-57: 6
TOTAL: 27
TOTAL ROUGH ESTIMATE FOR 2022-24:
Su-30 : 6
Su-34: 16
Su-35: 17
Su-57: 19
TOTAL: 58
Meanwhile total confirmed combat losses in same period:
MiG-31: 3
Su-24: 14
Su-25: 34
Su-27: 2
Su-30 : 12
Su-34: 36
Su-35: 7
Su-57: 1
Unknown: 3
TOTAL: 78
There was also at least half a dozen aircraft written off in accidents.
Ultimately, Putin will have to ask himself at some point what is more important to him: winning the war against Ukraine or protecting his country from a catastrophic economic collapse.
If the latter happens because Putin is uncooperative, it will certainly cause him great political damage in his own country. Before the war, only the people complained about poverty, but now it is the big companies...
In the end, the Western sanctions have played a large part in this, even if many deny it. The sanctions are designed to slowly but steadily bleed the country dry internally. And something like that takes several years.... Anyone who thinks the sanctions have achieved nothing is a fool.
In addition, the BRICS are not really on good terms with each other. Apart from Iran, none of the states are supporting Russia with military and financial aid. China is a special case because they are only interested in their own advantages. As soon as Russia has collapsed economically, China will not give a damn about Russia because then there will be nothing left to gain from it.
North Korea and Iran are only supporting Russia with ammunition, but they will not prevent the collapse either. And in the end, Kim is only interested in having a "friend". But does that mean we have to be afraid of North Korea...? I don't think so...
Especially since I strongly believe that the North Korean soldiers in Russia don't even know where they are. And will perhaps even use every opportunity to escape. Kim has done himself no favors by sending soldiers and Putin has made himself even more ridiculous by now resorting to North Koreans. You can't sink any lower.
And by the way... One day after the Bricks Summit, which Russia absolutely has to sell as a success, the Indian President met with the German Chancellor. They agreed on more intensive economic cooperation. India is not stupid either; Russia is the worst possible partner for stabilizing its economy. India's relationship with Russia is that India gets oil and gas at bargain prices
No matter how you look at it... Ultimately, the war in Ukraine has had no positive effects for Russia. On the contrary, Putin's mission has caused economic damage to the country, setting Russia back 30 years. He will go down in domestic Russian history as someone who led Russia into a deep recession, economic crisis and isolation like no one before him... At some point the time will come when the Russians will understand this too...
> Putin will have to ask himself at some point what is more important to him: winning the war against Ukraine or protecting his country from a catastrophic economic collapse.
He is concerned with neither, only keeping and propagating his power and it's not really political, "oligarchs" hold no sway over him. I'm not quite sure whom to recommend on the topic, maybe Vlad Vexler? I'm drawing a blank, maybe someone else can chime in.
As for his legacy, here's to him going down in the books as the one who ended Russia for good.
Just for amusement, a 'blast' from the past (British War Office tests available on the web) on overhead cover on trenches and other field entrenchments -
"WO 291/602 The practicability of overhead cover
Two types of overhead cover were considered. "Type A" uses raised overhead cover over the whole
trench. "Type B" has a flat covered part, and so is harder to observe, but means that men must leave
the overhead cover area to use their weapons.
On light soil (most soils, especially clays, give more protection for a given thickness), if 100 casualties
would be caused by 25-pdr airburst on trenches without overhead cover, the following casualties are
predicted:
Cover Men manning weapons Crouching in cover
Type A Type B (either type)
6-inch logs with:
No earth 12 100 10
1 ft earth 2 100 2
Corrugated iron or light timber, with:
6" earth 65 100 60
1 ft earth 22 100 17
2 ft earth 12 100 10
"Both in Russia and Italy the Germans have used semi-mobile "pill-boxes" partly sunk in the ground and protected with 30 to 150mm armour plate. These accommodate 2 men and would be invulnerable to anything but a direct hit from a shell or bomb."
One presumes information of this type (updated of course) is taught to officers and soldiers in most Western Armies.
Apparently Ukrainian troops are not taught this sort of information, or choose in all too many castes to ignore it...
A spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Zaporizhia Oblast reported on October 29 that Russian forces began using first person view drones with fiber optic wires stretching up to 10 kilometers in length against Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhia direction.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2024
A short analysis on how the understanding of future warfare has changed https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/defense-taiwan-ukrainian-characteristics-lessons-war-ukraine-western-pacific
The German-based Kiel Institute published a report in September 2024, which assessed that Ukrainian air defenses had a 30 percent interception rate against Russian missiles and a 66 percent interception rate against Russian drones. The report specified that Ukrainian air defenses had interception rates of 50 percent against Kalibr cruise missiles, 22 precent against Kh-59s and Kh-69 cruise missiles, four percent against Iskander ballistic missiles, and less than one percent against Kh-22 anti-ship missiles. The report estimated that Russian forces are using more than 1,000 glide bombs per month.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2024