Excellent write again. I'm loving your industrial and DIB updates more and more. It's great to see how far the UA has come in terms of producing artillery and ammo. Do you happen to have any numbers on how many shells the UA makes now? I can't find anything, other than general "The UA are producing shells" statements. But if the UA is getting 100K shells a month from the Czech initiative plus other sources, that will finally put paid Russia's artillery advantage. Plus to qualitative difference, a Bohdan is certainly better than anything the RU makes, and better than the Koksans the RU is getting. The UA gets more lethal, the Orcs get less. Excellent math!
Ukraine started producing 155mm shells last September but I don't have those numbers. A few months ago they had issues with thousands of defective mortar shells. I haven't heard of it lately so that's hopefully resolved.
Stefan Korshak reports that there's the 100k shells per month Czech initiative is funded at that rate until fall. The UK is ramping up a new factory to produce 40k a month. Rheinmetall will produce 750k shells this year and 1.1 million in 2027. For this year, France will produce 100k, Poland and Czechia will produce 150k each.
When you figure in that some of that ends up in Ukraine, hm, let's do some math! So 100K by the Czech Initiative, let's say 25% of each number ends up in Ukraine. So that's 10K from the UK per month. 15.7K from Rheinmetall per month. 2K for France. 3.1 K each Poland and Czechia. So going off of that math, and I have no idea how much of those countries are going to send, this is just some rough math, 135K worth of artillery shells a month. Over 4.5k a day for the UA to use in a 30 day month. I like that math.
Apparently the problem is that the 155mm manufacturer Ukrainian Armor needs firm orders to expand but the UKR government won't give them those orders because they are too small. So Ukrainian Armor has set up a co-production deal with a Czech munitions company that will give them that capacity. It will, of course, take time to get going:
"The company recently signed a deal with the Czechoslovak Group [CSG], one of Europe’s leading defense conglomerates, to collaborate on this initiative.
The agreement aims to produce 100,000 155mm artillery rounds in 2025, a significant milestone that would mark Ukraine’s entry into a new phase of military self-sufficiency. "
Hm, while that is good, it also proves that the UA government can still screw things up. But I get the issue, small companies given big orders can have problems filling and this is an area the UA doesn't need to be screwed up. Of course they work this order with the CSG and get better and bigger, then that should get some real orders and ramp it.
The Ukrainian gov is screwing up all the time. Sometimes....actually, the more one talks with insiders, the stronger the impression that the primary interest of the Ukrainian government is to screw up. At every imaginable opportunity and for reasons bordering on insanity.
...worst of all: it's the same in regards of Zele/Yermak's and Sirsky decision about what to do as next on the frontlines, too...
Cheers, Don. That was very informative. And thanks also for the news about the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and ITAR-free contracts. Things could get very interesting if the ACI is ever enforced against America. What are the odds Trump would impose 1000% tariffs on the EU?
Thanks Don for pointing out the enormous wealth transfer that caused the problems the US has today. Why more people don't make the connection must be addressed.
It is intersting that Pliny the elder was lamenting the same trade imbalance with China couple of millennia ago give or take.
How dare those knavish tricksters sell us something we want and can't take by force
In his Natural History (77–79 AD), Pliny the Elder lamented the financial drain of coin from the Roman economy to purchase this expensive luxury. He remarked that Rome's "womankind" and the purchase of luxury goods from India, Arabia, and the Seres of the Far East cost the empire roughly 100 million sesterces per year,[151] and claimed that journeys were made to the Seres to acquire silk cloth along with pearl diving in the Red Sea.[152][138] Despite the claims by Pliny the Elder about the trade imbalance and quantity of Rome's coinage used to purchase silk, Warwick Ball asserts that the Roman purchase of other foreign commodities, particularly spices from India, had a much greater impact on the Roman economy.[153] In 14 AD the Senate issued an edict prohibiting the wearing of silk by men, but it continued to flow unabated into the Roman world.[150] Beyond the economic concerns that the import of silk caused a huge outflow of wealth, silk clothes were also considered to be decadent and immoral by Seneca the Elder:
Get them angry about something else and they won't pay attention to the wealth transfer. It doesn't matter what the topic is. Make sure they're mad and that they're the victim and they need revenge.
DPRK Dick'Tator Kim Wrong Ewe, apparently stated today that el Norte Korea is at war with Ukraine.
Someone PLEASE tell me why Ukraine has not yet attacked North Korean????
I do not think it would be at all unreasonable to expect Ukraine to have the ability to send "A SHIP" 'around the bend' (so to speak) to the Sea of Japan. This ship would be laden with sea launched and air launched drones to attack the port/ports and ships that are transporting all of their "Peace Loving" weapons to Russia.
So, does ANYONE have any RUMINT that might allow me to believe that sometime in the future this could, possibly, maybe happen?????
Well, even if someone wanted to do that, Turkey would have to allow that hypothetical ship out via the Bosphorus, which, by Montreux Convention, they wouldn't do, unless, of course, "A SHIP" camouflaged itself as a civil vessel... :)
Also, NK has nukes and long-range missiles to deliver them...
Thanks Don and Tom. Fascinating read as always. My only criticism is that I do not understand the point of uncritically copying sources that are so clearly untrue. The article on Bohdana production is just drivel from the UA DPA.
1. They are not producing 400 Bohdana SPGs per year. Producing means they are leaving the factory ready for combat. If that was the case, where are they? Including all the NATO transfers, they should be having 2 or 3 times the number of "guns" as they had in February 2022. Where is the artillery?
2. While I could be convinced that 1. is true, the idea that 85% of components are made in Ukraine, is so obviously and utterly untrue, that it is laughable.
- So where are the steel works? Where are the blanks made, that require months before they can be used?
- Where are the barrels made? 400 SPGs a year + replacement barrels would be 800, 1000 barrels/year? That would possibly be more than the entire NATO combined. 155mm on top of that?
- Where are the machines from? Not a single 155mm was produced in UA before the invasion, who has provided entire factories of western machinery?
- Where is the iron or raw steel shipped from? It is not shipped by the sea, so by train from Poland? This is not something you can hide, where are all these reports of massive iron/steel imports? The EU is producing essentially the same amount of steel for a decade, so is Zelenskyy magically turning wood into steel?
- Where is the electronics coming from? Where are those famous Ukrainian semiconductor fabs?
- Where are the engines made?
- Where are the tires made?
- Where is the optics made?
- So what is actually made in UA other than assembling imported components together in a shed?
This is nothing but a typical Eastern government propaganda. Always report success, exaggerate 10 times everything you do. You, Don and Tom, know this, you know this very well.
2S22 Bohdan was initially produced at the Kramatorsk Heavy Machine Tool Building Plant , and it cost 2.8 million € and the production was 20 pieces and made possible to reach 36-38 pieces via the the introduction Bohdan-B towed version because the actual problem was the lack of the chassis to mount the gun , Ukraine actually possess all tool and machinery, skilled labor and technical expertise to mass produce the guns , they only lacked the funding and the truck production.
The production was 6 per month in 2023 and delivered 30 pieces by Dec 2023 , then the production rose to 20 cannons per month in 2025 and 154 cannons are delivered.
And the idea of expecting someone producing any sophisticated design 100% from the ground up is laughable, no one does this today , not Ukraine , not Russia , not the US and not even China , something must be outsourced, Ukraine will not produce HSLA or AHSS pellets with the quantity , the quality , tye speed or the price that Rheinmetall can do it so obviously only an absolute moron would insist on extracting the raw materials and components 8nstead of simply ordering them.
the cannon productuin is in several locations in the EU like Czeckia which already produce cannons and no matter how corrupt a government is you can make new factories and workshops in 2 years if you have the funding and technical expertise for it, only servicing take place in Ukraine and it takes one day for replacement parts to arrive after ordering.
And then about the amount of steel required, producing guns is not like constructing a battleship or an aircraft carrier, lets say generously you'll need 10 tons of steel per gun and 2-3 tons per barrel , so for a production of 500 pieces you'll need 5000 tons of steel and 6000 tons more for 2000 barrels , 11k tons per year is not crippling considering that the EU produce 177,000,000 tons of steel per year and does not even consume most it considering that annual steal production is not perishable or magically disappear so every country have a strategic reserve of raw materials in case you know , they suddenly needed some or the global market needed an urgent supply , it like the case for the ammunition for tge Ukraine war there is always something somewhere if the funds are available and I have very little doubt if any that the EU can increase the steel production exponentially if the occasion calls for it
Most problems in industry come from funding , demand ,market and competition and regulations and not actually from the lack of raw resources, technical staff or knowledge.
Therefore, if 5% of components are made in Ukraine that would be a success. Which is what I stated. Why then does the UA clown government announce complete BS about 85% home made components. There's a big difference between importing all the components and putting them together into a Bohdana, instead of buying 10 different similar SPGs from other countries, and basically fully producing it independently. It is well known that e.g. Czechia and Slovakia deliver important parts. The difference is whether the total deliveries are 400 of everything, or 400 bohdanas + everything else.
They do the same shit with drones. First fully UA made drone, except almost the entirety of a drone is the electronics, where not one component is made in Ukraine. Idiotic nonsense for people who don't know better. I bet the motors are also imported, so except the 3d printed plastic, what exactly is made in UA?
These lies are completely counter productive for UA as well. The public across Europe are asking why if everything is so fabulous according to Kyiv, the ZSU suffer defeat after defeat. Why if there's so much artillery and ammo being produced, the ZSU has to resort to shitty drones and there is constant lack of artillery on the front.
You are preaching to the Pope , already it was obvious since June 2023 and even before that Zelensky and Co gross mismanagement and disastrous dicisions are the biggest problem for Ukraine after the Russian invasion, Tom even said in part 1 that ZSU and Ukraine survives and function despite the best efforts of Zelensky's government not because of it and Zelensky and Co taking credit for the achievements and sacrifices of the Ukrainian people does not them any less , if anything makes those achievements and sacrifices more worthwhile considering his poor leadership
Dumpf has done more to defeat NATO than any external threat. What a complete destruction of American priorities, messaging, alliances, and reputation... (just for a start, even before the threat of breaking the western economic system) What a 💩 show
Excellent write again. I'm loving your industrial and DIB updates more and more. It's great to see how far the UA has come in terms of producing artillery and ammo. Do you happen to have any numbers on how many shells the UA makes now? I can't find anything, other than general "The UA are producing shells" statements. But if the UA is getting 100K shells a month from the Czech initiative plus other sources, that will finally put paid Russia's artillery advantage. Plus to qualitative difference, a Bohdan is certainly better than anything the RU makes, and better than the Koksans the RU is getting. The UA gets more lethal, the Orcs get less. Excellent math!
Ukraine started producing 155mm shells last September but I don't have those numbers. A few months ago they had issues with thousands of defective mortar shells. I haven't heard of it lately so that's hopefully resolved.
Stefan Korshak reports that there's the 100k shells per month Czech initiative is funded at that rate until fall. The UK is ramping up a new factory to produce 40k a month. Rheinmetall will produce 750k shells this year and 1.1 million in 2027. For this year, France will produce 100k, Poland and Czechia will produce 150k each.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51635
When you figure in that some of that ends up in Ukraine, hm, let's do some math! So 100K by the Czech Initiative, let's say 25% of each number ends up in Ukraine. So that's 10K from the UK per month. 15.7K from Rheinmetall per month. 2K for France. 3.1 K each Poland and Czechia. So going off of that math, and I have no idea how much of those countries are going to send, this is just some rough math, 135K worth of artillery shells a month. Over 4.5k a day for the UA to use in a 30 day month. I like that math.
Apparently the problem is that the 155mm manufacturer Ukrainian Armor needs firm orders to expand but the UKR government won't give them those orders because they are too small. So Ukrainian Armor has set up a co-production deal with a Czech munitions company that will give them that capacity. It will, of course, take time to get going:
"The company recently signed a deal with the Czechoslovak Group [CSG], one of Europe’s leading defense conglomerates, to collaborate on this initiative.
The agreement aims to produce 100,000 155mm artillery rounds in 2025, a significant milestone that would mark Ukraine’s entry into a new phase of military self-sufficiency. "
(https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/03/12/155mm-nato-shell-production-in-ukraine-hits-bureaucracy-snag/)
Note it says 'aims' not 'will'.
Just to be clear, this is not the same thing as the Czech 155mm Initiative which aims to source 155mm shells from around the world for Ukraine.
Hm, while that is good, it also proves that the UA government can still screw things up. But I get the issue, small companies given big orders can have problems filling and this is an area the UA doesn't need to be screwed up. Of course they work this order with the CSG and get better and bigger, then that should get some real orders and ramp it.
The Ukrainian gov is screwing up all the time. Sometimes....actually, the more one talks with insiders, the stronger the impression that the primary interest of the Ukrainian government is to screw up. At every imaginable opportunity and for reasons bordering on insanity.
...worst of all: it's the same in regards of Zele/Yermak's and Sirsky decision about what to do as next on the frontlines, too...
Thank you so very, very much. The industry and dollar parts are especially interesting for me.
Cheers, Don. That was very informative. And thanks also for the news about the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and ITAR-free contracts. Things could get very interesting if the ACI is ever enforced against America. What are the odds Trump would impose 1000% tariffs on the EU?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzbyS0l_wHA
Thanks Don for pointing out the enormous wealth transfer that caused the problems the US has today. Why more people don't make the connection must be addressed.
It is intersting that Pliny the elder was lamenting the same trade imbalance with China couple of millennia ago give or take.
How dare those knavish tricksters sell us something we want and can't take by force
In his Natural History (77–79 AD), Pliny the Elder lamented the financial drain of coin from the Roman economy to purchase this expensive luxury. He remarked that Rome's "womankind" and the purchase of luxury goods from India, Arabia, and the Seres of the Far East cost the empire roughly 100 million sesterces per year,[151] and claimed that journeys were made to the Seres to acquire silk cloth along with pearl diving in the Red Sea.[152][138] Despite the claims by Pliny the Elder about the trade imbalance and quantity of Rome's coinage used to purchase silk, Warwick Ball asserts that the Roman purchase of other foreign commodities, particularly spices from India, had a much greater impact on the Roman economy.[153] In 14 AD the Senate issued an edict prohibiting the wearing of silk by men, but it continued to flow unabated into the Roman world.[150] Beyond the economic concerns that the import of silk caused a huge outflow of wealth, silk clothes were also considered to be decadent and immoral by Seneca the Elder:
Get them angry about something else and they won't pay attention to the wealth transfer. It doesn't matter what the topic is. Make sure they're mad and that they're the victim and they need revenge.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/lbj-convince-the-lowest-white-man/
DPRK Dick'Tator Kim Wrong Ewe, apparently stated today that el Norte Korea is at war with Ukraine.
Someone PLEASE tell me why Ukraine has not yet attacked North Korean????
I do not think it would be at all unreasonable to expect Ukraine to have the ability to send "A SHIP" 'around the bend' (so to speak) to the Sea of Japan. This ship would be laden with sea launched and air launched drones to attack the port/ports and ships that are transporting all of their "Peace Loving" weapons to Russia.
So, does ANYONE have any RUMINT that might allow me to believe that sometime in the future this could, possibly, maybe happen?????
Well, even if someone wanted to do that, Turkey would have to allow that hypothetical ship out via the Bosphorus, which, by Montreux Convention, they wouldn't do, unless, of course, "A SHIP" camouflaged itself as a civil vessel... :)
Also, NK has nukes and long-range missiles to deliver them...
a dreamer can dream right???
(yes.....a camouflaged civilian vessel, otherwise it would not work)
Thanks Don and Tom.
Thanks Don and Tom. Fascinating read as always. My only criticism is that I do not understand the point of uncritically copying sources that are so clearly untrue. The article on Bohdana production is just drivel from the UA DPA.
1. They are not producing 400 Bohdana SPGs per year. Producing means they are leaving the factory ready for combat. If that was the case, where are they? Including all the NATO transfers, they should be having 2 or 3 times the number of "guns" as they had in February 2022. Where is the artillery?
2. While I could be convinced that 1. is true, the idea that 85% of components are made in Ukraine, is so obviously and utterly untrue, that it is laughable.
- So where are the steel works? Where are the blanks made, that require months before they can be used?
- Where are the barrels made? 400 SPGs a year + replacement barrels would be 800, 1000 barrels/year? That would possibly be more than the entire NATO combined. 155mm on top of that?
- Where are the machines from? Not a single 155mm was produced in UA before the invasion, who has provided entire factories of western machinery?
- Where is the iron or raw steel shipped from? It is not shipped by the sea, so by train from Poland? This is not something you can hide, where are all these reports of massive iron/steel imports? The EU is producing essentially the same amount of steel for a decade, so is Zelenskyy magically turning wood into steel?
- Where is the electronics coming from? Where are those famous Ukrainian semiconductor fabs?
- Where are the engines made?
- Where are the tires made?
- Where is the optics made?
- So what is actually made in UA other than assembling imported components together in a shed?
This is nothing but a typical Eastern government propaganda. Always report success, exaggerate 10 times everything you do. You, Don and Tom, know this, you know this very well.
2S22 Bohdan was initially produced at the Kramatorsk Heavy Machine Tool Building Plant , and it cost 2.8 million € and the production was 20 pieces and made possible to reach 36-38 pieces via the the introduction Bohdan-B towed version because the actual problem was the lack of the chassis to mount the gun , Ukraine actually possess all tool and machinery, skilled labor and technical expertise to mass produce the guns , they only lacked the funding and the truck production.
The production was 6 per month in 2023 and delivered 30 pieces by Dec 2023 , then the production rose to 20 cannons per month in 2025 and 154 cannons are delivered.
And the idea of expecting someone producing any sophisticated design 100% from the ground up is laughable, no one does this today , not Ukraine , not Russia , not the US and not even China , something must be outsourced, Ukraine will not produce HSLA or AHSS pellets with the quantity , the quality , tye speed or the price that Rheinmetall can do it so obviously only an absolute moron would insist on extracting the raw materials and components 8nstead of simply ordering them.
the cannon productuin is in several locations in the EU like Czeckia which already produce cannons and no matter how corrupt a government is you can make new factories and workshops in 2 years if you have the funding and technical expertise for it, only servicing take place in Ukraine and it takes one day for replacement parts to arrive after ordering.
And then about the amount of steel required, producing guns is not like constructing a battleship or an aircraft carrier, lets say generously you'll need 10 tons of steel per gun and 2-3 tons per barrel , so for a production of 500 pieces you'll need 5000 tons of steel and 6000 tons more for 2000 barrels , 11k tons per year is not crippling considering that the EU produce 177,000,000 tons of steel per year and does not even consume most it considering that annual steal production is not perishable or magically disappear so every country have a strategic reserve of raw materials in case you know , they suddenly needed some or the global market needed an urgent supply , it like the case for the ammunition for tge Ukraine war there is always something somewhere if the funds are available and I have very little doubt if any that the EU can increase the steel production exponentially if the occasion calls for it
Most problems in industry come from funding , demand ,market and competition and regulations and not actually from the lack of raw resources, technical staff or knowledge.
Therefore, if 5% of components are made in Ukraine that would be a success. Which is what I stated. Why then does the UA clown government announce complete BS about 85% home made components. There's a big difference between importing all the components and putting them together into a Bohdana, instead of buying 10 different similar SPGs from other countries, and basically fully producing it independently. It is well known that e.g. Czechia and Slovakia deliver important parts. The difference is whether the total deliveries are 400 of everything, or 400 bohdanas + everything else.
They do the same shit with drones. First fully UA made drone, except almost the entirety of a drone is the electronics, where not one component is made in Ukraine. Idiotic nonsense for people who don't know better. I bet the motors are also imported, so except the 3d printed plastic, what exactly is made in UA?
These lies are completely counter productive for UA as well. The public across Europe are asking why if everything is so fabulous according to Kyiv, the ZSU suffer defeat after defeat. Why if there's so much artillery and ammo being produced, the ZSU has to resort to shitty drones and there is constant lack of artillery on the front.
You are preaching to the Pope , already it was obvious since June 2023 and even before that Zelensky and Co gross mismanagement and disastrous dicisions are the biggest problem for Ukraine after the Russian invasion, Tom even said in part 1 that ZSU and Ukraine survives and function despite the best efforts of Zelensky's government not because of it and Zelensky and Co taking credit for the achievements and sacrifices of the Ukrainian people does not them any less , if anything makes those achievements and sacrifices more worthwhile considering his poor leadership
Dumpf has done more to defeat NATO than any external threat. What a complete destruction of American priorities, messaging, alliances, and reputation... (just for a start, even before the threat of breaking the western economic system) What a 💩 show
Enjoying these detailed reports that tie in economics, politics, and tech, btw, Don!