Don's Weekly, 28 April 2025: Part 4

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Diplomacy

Considering Trump has imperial interest against fellow NATO members of Canada and Denmark, it is not surprising that he supports the formal recognition of Crimea being a Russian conquest. In 2018, Trump's Secretary of State referenced the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act when he stated that territorial integrity is a bedrock principle of democratic states. “No country can change the borders of another by force”, said Pompeo. As a senator in 2022, Rubio co-sponsored a bill that wouldn't recognize any Russian territorial gains, in part out of concern it might encourage China to invade Taiwan. But times have changed. Trump's peace plan forces many concessions upon Ukraine. When asked what Russia had to concede, Trump said Russia agreed to stop fighting and not take the entirety of Ukraine. “Pretty big concession,” he said.

After Zelensky said, "There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine”, Trump responded, "Nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory, but if he wants Crimea, why didn't they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?" The indigenous Crimean Tartars said that the only legitimate end to the war is the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The mayor of Kyiv said Ukraine might have to temporarily give up territory for peace but they would never accept Russian occupation.

Many of Trump’s comments are devoid of fact and are sometimes self-contradictory, but it is still notable that Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine in one day was said “in jest”.

At the funeral in Rome, Starmer, Macron, Trump and Zelensky have a brief exchange before Trump and Zelensky sit down for a private talk in public view. The objective of many world leaders is to deescalate the worst of Trump’s ideas. Zelensky said the meeting could be historic, which is good, because Trump likes historic meetings. Zelensky also said that he and Trump agreed to hold more discussions the next day in Rome but Trump left before that happened.

On his way back from the funeral, Trump released a rambling post about many topics, one of which was a suspicion that Putin was leading Trump on and doesn’t want to stop the war. Trump said that Putin might have to be dealt with through secondary sanctions. To put this into context, Trump’s words mean little. It is his actions that count.

Hegseth transmitted the same classified details to a second chat group that included his wife, brother and personal lawyer. The Pentagon spokesman denied any of the details shared were classified. The Democrats and one Republican are calling for his dismissal. Trump backs Hegseth and denies a report that he’s searching for a replacement.

In 2024, 30% of the Finns believed the US would honor their commitments to Europe no matter who was elected president. Now only 16% believe the US would help Europe. Just over 25% believe the US would honor the defense cooperation agreement Finland signed with the US last year. Almost 75% believe other NATO members would help Finland.

In Trump’s first term, European leaders tried to flatter and talk Trump into reasonable actions. Just three months into his second term, they still flatter and try to de-escalate and maintain the relationships that are still productive but they are also looking for ways to protect themselves and reduce any reliance on the US. Poland had a very good relationship with the US. They have no plans to cancel any contracted weapons purchases with the US but they are wary of signing new contracts with them. After China tried to blackmail Lithuania over its position on Taiwan the EU created the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). It is a process that begins with discussion but can escalate with a set of countermeasures. They hope they won’t have to use it against the US but it is an option if they have to.

European companies are marketing weapons that are Itar-free, that is, free of US components. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) is a list of software, components and other technology produced by the US that could be used for military purposes. If a weapon has any item on the list then they cannot be sold or supplied to someone else with US approval. Said one source, “Even if you have US engineers, you become Itar-tainted.” This had always been the case and it was a preference, but no one trusts Trump anymore and itar-free is now becoming a requirement and a competitive differentiator.

The UK’s last two steel furnaces are owned by China and the owners redirected raw materials needed to create steel to other Chinese factories. Parliament took emergency control of the factories and arranged for the delivery of the materials, without which the factories would be shutting down. Furnaces that shut down can suffer serious damage. The factories are losing over $900k dollars a day and the issue is a source of tension between the UK and China.

The UK announced 150 new sanctions against Russia, including game controller exports which can be used with drones, and technology to search for new oil and gas wells.

Denmark said they were sending soldiers to Ukraine to learn how they fight. It turns out that Ukrainian drone instructors were sent to the UK to incorporate drone combat into the basic training for Ukrainian soldiers. They’ve also been training the British military.

China continues its aggressions by seizing a sand bar claimed by the Philippines. The Philippines have since landed with their own flag.

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The Dollar At War

Change is constant. Empires and their post-imperial equivalent rise and fall. The rate at which they change depends on actions taken.

The dollar has been the most significant international medium of exchange since WW2. To prevent the economic instability that helped create WW2, 44 nations agreed in 1944 to a new monetary system in which currencies were fixed to the dollar (with small adjustment allowed) and the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 per ounce. The system worked until deficits in trade resulted in foreign governments holding more dollars than the US could redeem with gold. This resulted in Nixon taking the dollar off the gold standard, meaning that dollars could no longer be exchanged for gold at fixed prices. Soon after, exchange rates and the price of gold fluctuate, but the dollar remained the primary currency used in trade and 59% of the foreign currencies are still held by nations are dollars.

This five minute video talks about the global role of the dollar.

The US does not have complete control of the dollar but the control it does have is strong enough to use it as an economic weapon. Since the 1990s, the US has imposed two-thirds of the world's sanctions and three times as many sanctions as any other country or international body, targeting one third of the world’s nations. The more it uses that capability, the more other nations will seek alternatives to the dollar. India bought Russian oil in rupees to bypass the SWIFT dollar sanctions and created a new data system to facilitate the large-scale trades. China and Russia are developing their own trade systems in parallel to SWIFT. Other nations are swapping their own currencies. BRICS was formed, in part, to try and counter the control of prevailing institutions. International dollar reserves have declined from 70% in 1999 to 59% now.

Clinton and Obama removed (unsanctioned) the highest number of sanctions on entities, such as companies. Over the years, the number of sanctions increased.

Trade deficits have multiple impacts, one of which was being an important factor in the dollar’s international use. The more goods the US bought, the more nations held US dollars. The more the US deficit grows, the more it could weaken the dollar. But a weaker dollar would also make it easier to sell US exports (and more expensive to buy imports).

Trump’s erratic tariffs have the stated goal of reducing or eliminating those deficits and changing the international trading system. If US trade is reduced by protectionism, there will be less demand for the dollar. If trade barriers increase inflation of the dollar (due to higher consumer prices) then the dollar will lose value and demand. The political instability in the US is another factor in the loss of trust in the dollar and in the US as a nation. As a result, Europe, Canada and other nations are exploring alternative relationships, some for the first time.

Wages are often the biggest cost in production. In search of lower wages, a lot of US production was shipped overseas (at about the same time that $80 trillion started being redistributed from the bottom 90% in the US to the top 1%, and the domestic budget deficit grew). Since the US consumes more than it produces, the trade deficit continues to grow.

The strength of a nation’s military is heavily dependent on the strength of that nation’s economy. Several projections over the years place China and India as the two biggest economies in 2050 followed by the US. With the projected top economy being directed by an authoritarian government and the next two economies are currently flirting with authoritarianism, it could potentially be a dangerous future. It also suggests that the dollar’s power would fade even without self-destructive decisions.

The economies of the seven emerging states (E7) equaled the economies of the Group of 7 in 2015. By 2040 the E7 will be twice as big.

Systems naturally change over time, whether they are governmental or economic systems. The US and its dollar will not disappear, but their relationship with the rest of the world is slowly changing and other systems will emerge to try and replace the stability and power that the US and its dollar once offered. These systems would have evolved naturally over time, but recent US political decisions are accelerating the rate of change.

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Equipment

Drones aren’t just a threat on the battlefield so the Italian police had portable drone jammers at the Pope’s funeral.

The 508th Separate Repair and Restoration Battalion is establishing an online presence and has been creating content since December. A 16 minute video on the development and details of the Leopard 1A5 tank used by Ukraine. After repair, the engine is reinstalled in a Leopard 1A5. This Leopard 2A4 suffered over 10 drone hits but they were able to evacuate it for repairs. One night they use a truck and trailer to drop off a repaired tank at one location and pick up a Marder at another location. Changing tires on a Kirpi MRAP requires more equipment than a civilian car.

The Ukrainian Ardal ground drone can carry 200 kg for 30km on a single battery.

Satellite imagery is useful in volume, whether the source is from a government or commercial satellite. Different types of imagery, such as optical or synthetic aperture radar (SAR), reveal different objects in different conditions. The US provides Ukraine the best coverage and real-time streaming capabilities, at least for now. Ukraine already has SAR imagery from Finland, Germany and Italy, and now they will receive it from Japan, as well. Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space (iQPS) was spun off from Kyushu University and operates five satellites and will launch more in 2026.

The production of the Caesar 155mm gun increased from two per month in 2022 to six a month now, and they expect to build 12 a month by the end of the year. 90% of the guns built are sent to Ukraine. They also hope to make 100,000 155mm shells this year, as well.

Ukraine is building 36 Bohdana 155mm guns each month. 85% of the components are created in Ukraine and they expect to increase that to 95% by the end of the year. This is possible because of monetary aid from Europe. The money not only allows production in existing factories to increase, it helps establish new facilities to build other weapons. Since 2022, Ukraine has given over 800 artillery systems of various models and most nations have run out of weapons to give. If, over time, most of Ukraine’s guns are Bohdanas and Caesars it will simplify logistics.

3D printing is widely used for plastics but it’s also used for metal parts to eliminate long waits for tools or replacement parts, including parts that are no longer in production. 3D metal printing can also create parts that milling cannot, such as sharp inner corners and complicated hallow parts. The cost of the machine and the time it takes to create a part are the greatest downsides. 3D printing that uses lasers to melt the powder into shape also produces imperfections that fatigues the metal sooner than traditional casting. Australia sent three 3D metal printers to Ukraine that use cold spray air that accelerates particles up to mach 3 at 500 degrees celsius, which deforms the powder and causes it to stick to its impact point. This method had been used by hand for 30 years to repair parts but the three 3D printers move the part that is being created from scratch. The materials that have been validated for use are copper, aluminum, aluminum/bronze and stainless steel. The quality of the produced product is better than a casting but not as good as a forging. Both laser and cold spray produced parts can be strengthened by heat treatments or hot isostatic press (where pressure is applied equally over the entire part).

The mobile 3D metal printer can be unloaded and deployed in 30 minutes. While the forming airflow is 500 degrees celsius, the chamber itself never exceeds 40 degrees celsius. It can create products up to 70 cm x 100 cm. Depending on the mass, a part can be created in 1-3 hours. Laser printing the same part would take 1-3 days.

Germany will construct its own dual-use and dedicated military constellation of communication and remote sensing satellites so it will not be reliant on Starlink and it will be independent of other European systems. It is unclear if the deployment of the constellation will begin in 2029 or be completed by then.