Peter principle: people are promoted until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, so, sooner or later, everybody is incompetent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle (If you think you are competent, then you ough to be promoted.)
Promotions no longer always work like that in some modern environments. However, I guess, in armies and in politics it might still be as true as ever...
Isn't competence supposed to be about being able to compete? Seeing as they are doing just that for years (well, lifetimes), I'd say all the idiots in question are very competent, world-class idiots.
Back in 1914, who had a clue what's going on when Franz Joseph I attacked Serbia? Incompetence is a normal state of affairs, competence is usually mere luck or exception.
Thanks for your constant work Tom. I think that I live in a more stupid world that my fathers lived, and really think about the more stupid this wound became when My child have my age.
I think that individually we are, as humans, more stupid than before. We not reclaim, we not denounce envío, we not get move with the suffer of the guy beside me.
We not read any more. Only 5 minutes Reels, tik tok. We are all busy doing work to archive. We do not ask for acontability to our representants. Any of them. But we send memes.
Just a thought, who is tying up who in Kursk? Is it the Russians or is it the Ukrainians?
If I were Russian I would just let the Ukrainian units sit there as they are mostly the good ones. Ultimately Kursk is looking like an own goal for the Ukrainians.
What do we do, if, one day, we see everything in a different light? What if competence tells us nothing without some other variable, say purpose? What if competence is a dependent variable of something else?
As you point out, the military from both Ukraine and Russia is incompetent. Yet you expect Ukraine to be competent? Why? What is different for men born on one side of river to men born on the other side?
What if the war is between say, miners vs makers, resources vs manufacturers? How then do we define competence in each military? Wouldn't the miners want to fight with bodies who keep the makers from controlling the mines? Wouldn't the makers want to use their equipment to gain control of the miners infrastructure?
Technologically, Ukraine is beating Russia, IMO. Land-wise, Russia is beating Ukraine. They both fight to their strengths--and more importantly--purpose.
Russia might run out of tanks, but it won't run out of soldiers IMO. Ukraine might run out of soldiers but it won't run out of drones and missiles.
Neither side really cares about the competence of the soldiers. Russia, because it wins through numbers. Ukraine because the real war is fighting is with technology. That's just my opinion.
I'm not arguing that competence isn't important. I agree with you, it's crucial--the whole show. BUT I feel you need more context in what competence is important to who and why.
An effective army is a system of systems. No army reaches 100% efficiency, but Ukraine is much closer to chaos on the spectrum than is reasonable. It doesn't have to invent new systems. It can implement those that have already been proven. Some of the systems are already being used by their own successful brigades and battalions.
The list is long and has been reported many times here and elsewhere. Just some of the items on the list includes a national standard for training, which implies a national doctrine for fighting. Individual soldiers and complete units should be trained before they are committed to combat. Division and corps structures should be in place, communications with units to adjacent units and with superior and subordinate units should be improved. Inaccurate reporting should not be tolerated and individual initiative should be encouraged. Not only should existing units be provided with replacements before new units are established, but existing units that are successful should be expanded in size. This will not only maintain a competent culture but increase it's combat power. And, of course, an effective doctrine for establishing and utilizing battlefield reserves needs to be implemented. The practice of detaching battalions from brigades to serve as ad hoc reserves needs to end.
All of this can be done without regard to the quantity of soldiers or resources, or the level of technology, and it will significantly increase Ukraine's combat power.
The homeless can be housed for the same cost as we pay everyone working on the "homeless" problem ;) We know that, so why don't we elect someone to change it?
Why isn't Ukraine implementing the solutions you (and especially those managing the battlefield) propose?
The government of Ukraine does not make a priority of the front line because they're not fighting the war there. They believe that no matter what happens, the West will also do just enough to keep it a stalemate. What the West wants them to focus on is degrading Russia's infrastructure so it collapses economically, and then politically. That's the goal of Ukraine. To ruin Russia economically and then join the winners (the West).
How many Ukrainians with college degrees or family money are on the front line? How much can you train someone who isn't interested in the subject? It doesn't matter how much it can save their life, some people would rather pray or hope for the best.
Can you train anyone? That's an age old question. My experience is no.
In Ukraine's defense, why should it "expend" its best and brightest? It can never win a war against Russia straight up bayonet to bayonet.
Looking at things the way I just wrote, that is some deep, deep depressing way of looking at it. Please, convince me that such a perspective is false.
The driving force for the thousands of desertions from many units is that they don't want to die because of stupidity. These same people that deserted are willing to serve in other competent units. They are willing to accept the risk of death that is associated with any combat unit but they recognize even to their untrained eyes that the leadership in some units have no idea what they are doing.
Any problem is essentially a leadership problem. There will always be problems. A leader doesn't have to be perfect to be effective. There are plenty of good brigade leaders that constantly address problems in their brigade and try to insulate their unit from problems created by senior leadership.
Ultimately, the leader at the top is responsible for all of his subordinates and that leader is Zelensky. Why he does or doesn't do things is beyond my knowledge. The more effective people he has working for him, the more likely these issues can be resolved. And there are a lot of issues. Fixing them will not be easy but it must at least begin.
The potential for success exists. Ukraine is doing a lot of things that work. It needs to correct the things that don't work.
Do we care if we die being smart or stupid? Gets back to my purpose question. What does a soldier, on either side, get out of risking their lives at the front? I say they're deserting because they want to win. To win, you say they need training. I agree. Yet how can you be trained by someone who isn't smarter than you (in what you're learning?).
When I say the soldiers at the front aren't the smartest, I don't mean that they're dumb--only that they don't think abstractly. Training is about turning abstract ideas into physical behaviors.
But these soldiers are smart, smarter than the "smart" people, at seeing when someone isn't working. And it's not, as you point out!
It's WAY deeper than Zelensky. The college educated are not going to the front. I could be 100% wrong. I'm 3,000 miles away! Again, I want someone to disabuse me of that belief.
It's all in 12 O'clock High. Gately is highly qualified and skilled. He sees that no one really cares about training so he tries to get on the best planes to improve his chance of surviving. He did the logical thing. Yet when Savage puts in a new system for winning Gately completely changes. The only tears in the movie are about Gately and Savage's tortuous journey together.
What if Pritchard had never replaced Davenport with Savage? What would Gately's best course of action be? Even if Gately agreed with Savage before Savage showed up how could he have changed things? He was a Lt Col, below both Davenport, Savage and Prichard. To change things he would have had to break command and go above Davenport.
This is a problem you write about. I just feel the problem is higher up and it's not just Zelensky. It's the whole government. They won't put in the right people to train (educated) because doing so would risk their lives, and, like Gately, they see nothing will change.
"North Korean reinforcements are expected to arrive in the next two months. About 4,000 of the 11-12,000 North Korean troops already sent have been killed or wounded since October. Several have committed suicide rather than surrender, and if a Russian drone operator sees a North Korean trying to surrender he will try to kill him."
For many months Don's reports' been a laughing stock. He simply "copy-pastes" UA propaganda reports. Word by word. No attempts for analysis. I can even cite his "origings" in UA media. There are indeed some good UA sources, but why Don always takes the lousy ones. No problem to be pro-Ukranian for me, but why to post BS.
Tom, hand on heart, it's a shame to read low-end Monday's reports.
We are speaking here about N.Korean losses. 4k figure is fantastic and has nothing in common with reality. There are indeed some photos/videos of presumable Koreans killed or wounded (though some of them are RU soldiers of Asian origin). There could be several dozens KIA amd WIA, couple of hundreds at best. 4 K out of 14 k - is horrible ratio and would have caused a huge scandal. These uncomfirmed figures were released by UA authorities for Western media to make certain noise. I understand and accept it as a part of propaganda war. But cite this BS at specialised military blog is very funny and irritating. It is too boring to go into details of this nonsense, but OK. For example, it's stated that NKoreans evacuate all the bodies. How would you imagine this? With hundreds FPVs from both sides saturating the sky and when even wounded soldiers are ruthlessly finished off. Who will let evacuation groups to work en masse? Considering stated high losses?
It's so obvious and clear that I feel lazy even to discuss it.
Not so many sources indeed. But If you have doubts, better not to post rather than to state nonsense. 4 k NKorean dead or wounded. Apparentlu, a pure BS. Just two Korean (presumably) prisoners, no signs of corpses (how could you evacuate all dead bodies under the fire?). As a part of propaganda war, it's OK, it's a part of the game. But why to post it here? Each Don's Monday "research" is full of mistakes and blatant lies. That's pathetic....
Certainly, no one is forcing you to read this. It would be a delight to many if you simply went away.
The 4k dead and wounded is the figure used by multiple sources. I've posted several images of North Korean dead, and Andrew Perpetua counted 408 Russian and North Korean casualties in a single day when they attacked Makhnovka. I posted a video of North Korean dead lined up in a row. There have been many videos of individual North Korean dead. There's been a video of North Korean wounded in a Russian hospital.
Your desperate desires for Russian conquest, regardless of the cost to others, puts you at odds with reality and shows you for the kind of human being that you are. Simply calling facts that distress you a bunch of lies isn't going to change reality.
"But, right now, the point is this: considering all the incompetence dominating our world, and especially the incompetence of the government and the top brass of the ZSU in Kyiv, it is actually nothing short of a miracle, definitely an amazing achievement, that Ukraine ‘still stands’, that it’s still resisting Pudding’s invasion - and that, actually, with at least ‘reasonable amounts of success’."
Why are you wondering? The partisans in that region fought for basically three years against Nazi occupation without support.
And yes, that is different to holding a contact line against a regular army. On the other hand Ukrainians are fighting for their independence since the sacking of Kyiv through the Mongols. They know hardship much better than we do.
That's why I am considering Ukrainians more free than people in Western Europe as those see fighting for freedom as something outsourceable to people that they call fascistic. Hence, in Western Europe there is no society that would be mentally prepared to stand up against a Russian invasion. So why ard you wondering that people believe that Russia would be capable to attack in a few years if they get to produce enough vehicles to drive their armed mob into Western Europe?
Yes, Poland is in their way, but that is my only hope. If you want to secure your succession to Putins throne (he will die eventually) trying that by destroying Polish capabilities in their barracks with tactical nukes becomes a viable option.
Of course you can wonder about it, but their is an explainable logic beneath.
I neglected to include the link in the "Toretsk" section showing a Russian triggering OZM-72 mine. The mine is set off by a tripwire and jumps to a half meter in height before exploding. It is a long-range view from a drone, but the soldier is killed some distance away from the mine. https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1881972972988358725/video/1
I neglected to put in the link to the cluster attack on Russian forces reported to be gathered in the woods just north of Sverdlikovo, as mentioned in the "Kursk" section.
Peter principle: people are promoted until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, so, sooner or later, everybody is incompetent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle (If you think you are competent, then you ough to be promoted.)
Promotions no longer always work like that in some modern environments. However, I guess, in armies and in politics it might still be as true as ever...
I was seldom promoted, so either I was incompetent, or my bosses were, or both.
Isn't competence supposed to be about being able to compete? Seeing as they are doing just that for years (well, lifetimes), I'd say all the idiots in question are very competent, world-class idiots.
'Highly competent, professional idiots'?
Works for me. ;-)
Back in 1914, who had a clue what's going on when Franz Joseph I attacked Serbia? Incompetence is a normal state of affairs, competence is usually mere luck or exception.
The whole WWI starts was a Big meme. But was the consecuence of lots of wrongdoings of the 30 years vefore of it.
This war is the powderkeeg of the wrongdoings of the last 30 years.
The WWII was the wrongdoings of Versalles...
Thanks for your constant work Tom. I think that I live in a more stupid world that my fathers lived, and really think about the more stupid this wound became when My child have my age.
I think that individually we are, as humans, more stupid than before. We not reclaim, we not denounce envío, we not get move with the suffer of the guy beside me.
We not read any more. Only 5 minutes Reels, tik tok. We are all busy doing work to archive. We do not ask for acontability to our representants. Any of them. But we send memes.
Interesting to read the differences in tactics used by the North Korean's and Russians.
Who knew their were so many different ways to get a lot of men killed for very little gain 🤷🏼♂️.
One sure thing: The DRK troops are more competent than the Russians, it is impossible to be otherwise.
Just a thought, who is tying up who in Kursk? Is it the Russians or is it the Ukrainians?
If I were Russian I would just let the Ukrainian units sit there as they are mostly the good ones. Ultimately Kursk is looking like an own goal for the Ukrainians.
What do we do, if, one day, we see everything in a different light? What if competence tells us nothing without some other variable, say purpose? What if competence is a dependent variable of something else?
As you point out, the military from both Ukraine and Russia is incompetent. Yet you expect Ukraine to be competent? Why? What is different for men born on one side of river to men born on the other side?
What if the war is between say, miners vs makers, resources vs manufacturers? How then do we define competence in each military? Wouldn't the miners want to fight with bodies who keep the makers from controlling the mines? Wouldn't the makers want to use their equipment to gain control of the miners infrastructure?
Technologically, Ukraine is beating Russia, IMO. Land-wise, Russia is beating Ukraine. They both fight to their strengths--and more importantly--purpose.
Russia might run out of tanks, but it won't run out of soldiers IMO. Ukraine might run out of soldiers but it won't run out of drones and missiles.
Neither side really cares about the competence of the soldiers. Russia, because it wins through numbers. Ukraine because the real war is fighting is with technology. That's just my opinion.
I'm not arguing that competence isn't important. I agree with you, it's crucial--the whole show. BUT I feel you need more context in what competence is important to who and why.
An effective army is a system of systems. No army reaches 100% efficiency, but Ukraine is much closer to chaos on the spectrum than is reasonable. It doesn't have to invent new systems. It can implement those that have already been proven. Some of the systems are already being used by their own successful brigades and battalions.
The list is long and has been reported many times here and elsewhere. Just some of the items on the list includes a national standard for training, which implies a national doctrine for fighting. Individual soldiers and complete units should be trained before they are committed to combat. Division and corps structures should be in place, communications with units to adjacent units and with superior and subordinate units should be improved. Inaccurate reporting should not be tolerated and individual initiative should be encouraged. Not only should existing units be provided with replacements before new units are established, but existing units that are successful should be expanded in size. This will not only maintain a competent culture but increase it's combat power. And, of course, an effective doctrine for establishing and utilizing battlefield reserves needs to be implemented. The practice of detaching battalions from brigades to serve as ad hoc reserves needs to end.
All of this can be done without regard to the quantity of soldiers or resources, or the level of technology, and it will significantly increase Ukraine's combat power.
The homeless can be housed for the same cost as we pay everyone working on the "homeless" problem ;) We know that, so why don't we elect someone to change it?
Why isn't Ukraine implementing the solutions you (and especially those managing the battlefield) propose?
The government of Ukraine does not make a priority of the front line because they're not fighting the war there. They believe that no matter what happens, the West will also do just enough to keep it a stalemate. What the West wants them to focus on is degrading Russia's infrastructure so it collapses economically, and then politically. That's the goal of Ukraine. To ruin Russia economically and then join the winners (the West).
How many Ukrainians with college degrees or family money are on the front line? How much can you train someone who isn't interested in the subject? It doesn't matter how much it can save their life, some people would rather pray or hope for the best.
Can you train anyone? That's an age old question. My experience is no.
In Ukraine's defense, why should it "expend" its best and brightest? It can never win a war against Russia straight up bayonet to bayonet.
Looking at things the way I just wrote, that is some deep, deep depressing way of looking at it. Please, convince me that such a perspective is false.
The driving force for the thousands of desertions from many units is that they don't want to die because of stupidity. These same people that deserted are willing to serve in other competent units. They are willing to accept the risk of death that is associated with any combat unit but they recognize even to their untrained eyes that the leadership in some units have no idea what they are doing.
Any problem is essentially a leadership problem. There will always be problems. A leader doesn't have to be perfect to be effective. There are plenty of good brigade leaders that constantly address problems in their brigade and try to insulate their unit from problems created by senior leadership.
Ultimately, the leader at the top is responsible for all of his subordinates and that leader is Zelensky. Why he does or doesn't do things is beyond my knowledge. The more effective people he has working for him, the more likely these issues can be resolved. And there are a lot of issues. Fixing them will not be easy but it must at least begin.
The potential for success exists. Ukraine is doing a lot of things that work. It needs to correct the things that don't work.
Do we care if we die being smart or stupid? Gets back to my purpose question. What does a soldier, on either side, get out of risking their lives at the front? I say they're deserting because they want to win. To win, you say they need training. I agree. Yet how can you be trained by someone who isn't smarter than you (in what you're learning?).
When I say the soldiers at the front aren't the smartest, I don't mean that they're dumb--only that they don't think abstractly. Training is about turning abstract ideas into physical behaviors.
But these soldiers are smart, smarter than the "smart" people, at seeing when someone isn't working. And it's not, as you point out!
It's WAY deeper than Zelensky. The college educated are not going to the front. I could be 100% wrong. I'm 3,000 miles away! Again, I want someone to disabuse me of that belief.
It's all in 12 O'clock High. Gately is highly qualified and skilled. He sees that no one really cares about training so he tries to get on the best planes to improve his chance of surviving. He did the logical thing. Yet when Savage puts in a new system for winning Gately completely changes. The only tears in the movie are about Gately and Savage's tortuous journey together.
What if Pritchard had never replaced Davenport with Savage? What would Gately's best course of action be? Even if Gately agreed with Savage before Savage showed up how could he have changed things? He was a Lt Col, below both Davenport, Savage and Prichard. To change things he would have had to break command and go above Davenport.
This is a problem you write about. I just feel the problem is higher up and it's not just Zelensky. It's the whole government. They won't put in the right people to train (educated) because doing so would risk their lives, and, like Gately, they see nothing will change.
"North Korean reinforcements are expected to arrive in the next two months. About 4,000 of the 11-12,000 North Korean troops already sent have been killed or wounded since October. Several have committed suicide rather than surrender, and if a Russian drone operator sees a North Korean trying to surrender he will try to kill him."
For many months Don's reports' been a laughing stock. He simply "copy-pastes" UA propaganda reports. Word by word. No attempts for analysis. I can even cite his "origings" in UA media. There are indeed some good UA sources, but why Don always takes the lousy ones. No problem to be pro-Ukranian for me, but why to post BS.
Tom, hand on heart, it's a shame to read low-end Monday's reports.
We are speaking here about N.Korean losses. 4k figure is fantastic and has nothing in common with reality. There are indeed some photos/videos of presumable Koreans killed or wounded (though some of them are RU soldiers of Asian origin). There could be several dozens KIA amd WIA, couple of hundreds at best. 4 K out of 14 k - is horrible ratio and would have caused a huge scandal. These uncomfirmed figures were released by UA authorities for Western media to make certain noise. I understand and accept it as a part of propaganda war. But cite this BS at specialised military blog is very funny and irritating. It is too boring to go into details of this nonsense, but OK. For example, it's stated that NKoreans evacuate all the bodies. How would you imagine this? With hundreds FPVs from both sides saturating the sky and when even wounded soldiers are ruthlessly finished off. Who will let evacuation groups to work en masse? Considering stated high losses?
It's so obvious and clear that I feel lazy even to discuss it.
You know of a better source of information?
Not so many sources indeed. But If you have doubts, better not to post rather than to state nonsense. 4 k NKorean dead or wounded. Apparentlu, a pure BS. Just two Korean (presumably) prisoners, no signs of corpses (how could you evacuate all dead bodies under the fire?). As a part of propaganda war, it's OK, it's a part of the game. But why to post it here? Each Don's Monday "research" is full of mistakes and blatant lies. That's pathetic....
Certainly, no one is forcing you to read this. It would be a delight to many if you simply went away.
The 4k dead and wounded is the figure used by multiple sources. I've posted several images of North Korean dead, and Andrew Perpetua counted 408 Russian and North Korean casualties in a single day when they attacked Makhnovka. I posted a video of North Korean dead lined up in a row. There have been many videos of individual North Korean dead. There's been a video of North Korean wounded in a Russian hospital.
Your desperate desires for Russian conquest, regardless of the cost to others, puts you at odds with reality and shows you for the kind of human being that you are. Simply calling facts that distress you a bunch of lies isn't going to change reality.
"But, right now, the point is this: considering all the incompetence dominating our world, and especially the incompetence of the government and the top brass of the ZSU in Kyiv, it is actually nothing short of a miracle, definitely an amazing achievement, that Ukraine ‘still stands’, that it’s still resisting Pudding’s invasion - and that, actually, with at least ‘reasonable amounts of success’."
Why are you wondering? The partisans in that region fought for basically three years against Nazi occupation without support.
And yes, that is different to holding a contact line against a regular army. On the other hand Ukrainians are fighting for their independence since the sacking of Kyiv through the Mongols. They know hardship much better than we do.
That's why I am considering Ukrainians more free than people in Western Europe as those see fighting for freedom as something outsourceable to people that they call fascistic. Hence, in Western Europe there is no society that would be mentally prepared to stand up against a Russian invasion. So why ard you wondering that people believe that Russia would be capable to attack in a few years if they get to produce enough vehicles to drive their armed mob into Western Europe?
Yes, Poland is in their way, but that is my only hope. If you want to secure your succession to Putins throne (he will die eventually) trying that by destroying Polish capabilities in their barracks with tactical nukes becomes a viable option.
Of course you can wonder about it, but their is an explainable logic beneath.
I neglected to include the link in the "Toretsk" section showing a Russian triggering OZM-72 mine. The mine is set off by a tripwire and jumps to a half meter in height before exploding. It is a long-range view from a drone, but the soldier is killed some distance away from the mine. https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1881972972988358725/video/1
I neglected to put in the link to the cluster attack on Russian forces reported to be gathered in the woods just north of Sverdlikovo, as mentioned in the "Kursk" section.
https://t.me/OSHB_225/4884